This is where the fun begins...
Fun? Or a stomach-churning, anxiety-filled ride that completely ruins something you’ve been anticipating since childhood? Ho ho ho. We have no idea!
There is nothing quite like the chaos of MLB’s playoffs, and the Blue Jays are back in them — for realsies — for the first time since 2016.
Of course, I can get away with saying a thing like that because I don’t think there are any 2020 Blue Jays stans out there to upset. Had that not been a shortened season, with no home games, a shamefully expansive playoff field, and had the Jays not backed their way in and gone out with an immediate whimper, perhaps we’d remember that “run” more fondly. Instead, everybody seems content — and this is absolutely fine with me — to let their memories of Blue Jays Playoff Baseball slip beyond 2020, to the better times of 2015 and 2016.
Better. And yet, you know, quite often agonizing in the moment! Get ready to be scarred for life, folks! In the best way possible!
Hopefully there will be ample time this year for those wounds to occur. The Seattle Mariners are a tough assignment over three games, even at home, and even for a Jays team that probably just edges the matchup on paper. We could see a repeat of the whimper of 2020 — or of the start of 2015’s ALDS against the Rangers, which would have been over before it ever got back to Toronto for Game Five under this year’s best-of-three format — just as easily as we could see the Mariners crumble in the deafening roar of 44,000 strong, Alek Manoah carrying a country on his back, as the Jays’ lineup depth proves too strong for a Mariners rotation that’s better built for a long series than this impossibly short one. If so, some truly magical possibilities begin to open up in front of us. Which is to say: the one ultimate possibility starts to feel a little more within reach.
No disrespect to the Houston Astros, or any of the other teams that lie in wait, but — and I’m only being slightly hyperbolic here — because of the shortness of this series it may be the toughest obstacle to be faced. You’ve got to get to the dance to have a chance and, truthfully, this series is more like the sprint to the gymnasium door.
It’s going to be glorious. Or terrible! Either way, it’s what we raptly followed all 162 before it to experience. What we suffered through the disappointments of 2021, the unreality of 2020, and slogged through the depths of 2017, ‘18, and ‘19 for just a taste of. It rules, man!
Here’s what you need to know as the Jays and Mariners get set to open their series at 4:07 PM ET!
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The big stories…
• Manoah vs. Castillo
The pitching matchup in game one is a doozy, pitting the Jays’ efficient, contact-suppressing workhorse, Alek Manoah, against Luis Castillo, the hard-throwing Mariners trade deadline acquisition who ended his season on a high note after a slightly wobbly September but is, unfortunately, real good.
Manoah is a guy whose confidence one can’t help but admire, and who has thrived under pressure — something he says is merely what you put in your tires (an awesome, if slightly inelegant, turn of phrase picked up from a former coach, which I’m sure we’re all happy to let slide) — be it when rapidly emerging as the Jays top prospect in 2021, or being called up sooner than anyone had dreamed to stop the diesel fuel gushing from the rotation after Tanner Roark’s implosion, to this year’s slow and steady climb from number four starter in March to unquestioned number one here in October. This one’s a little bit different, of course. There may not be a chance to make up for any mistakes five days from now. The regular season is tough, but just a little more forgiving. Still, Manoah’s formula — while not as strikeout-heavy as we’ve come to expect from a modern ace — continues to work rather spectacularly and, for whatever little it’s worth, outside of all-timers like Scherzer, deGrom, or Verlander, there are hardly any other guys whose hands you’d feel more comfortable in as a Jays fan.
More relevantly, you get the sense that the team itself feels that way too.
Also this:
The 29-year-old Castillo, on the other hand, throws a ton of fastballs, doing a very average job of keeping the ball off the barrel of bats and making up for that with a healthy dose of swing-and-miss. Against right-handed hitters, of which the Blue Jays’ lineup is mainly comprised, he’s brought back his four-seamer — formerly his most used offering — in a significant way this year, mixing it about evenly with a sinker, each of each of which he throws about 30% of the time. His changeup would seem on the surface to be a worry for Jays fans, but it turns out he doesn’t throw them often to right-handed batters — and decreasingly so as 2022 has gone on, with his usage of right-on-right changeups declining to 9.2% in September. Still, the slider is a weapon, generating swing-and-miss on 50% of the swings against it in August and September.
The Jays are in tough, let there be no doubt. And with Seattle’s bullpen looking better than their own, the matchup between these game one starters becomes all the more important.
• Whither Vlad?
The Blue Jays have a deep lineup with several guys coming into the playoffs goes about as well as possible. This should give them the edge here, but what would definitely give it to them would be Vladimir Guerrero Jr. looking anything like himself and not the guy who comes into the playoffs slashing .235/.291/.390 since the start of September, and a 54.8% ground ball rate in the second half — higher, slightly, than in 2020.
Vlad’s had a good season, and a very good season relative to his peers. He’s hit about as well as much-talked-about O’s prospect Adley Rutschman, who he is younger than. But merely being good isn’t enough for a guy of his talent.
The flip side of this is, of course, that if he gets hot he’s as good as anyone. That thought should terrify the rest of the league. Robbie Ray’s two-pitch mix may be just what the doctor ordered in game two. Castillo’s slider in game one may, based on what we’ve seen over this last month, not.
• Yusei Kikuchi, huh?
The Jays officially announced their Wild Card Series roster here on Friday and Yusei Kikuchi was on it!
Turns out I have thoughts about this.
I can’t imagine we’ll be seeing Kikuchi in any kind of meaningful scenario, but a few do exist where he could get the ball. For one, a blowout. For two, if they need to get a lefty out and god forbid Tim Mayza is unavailable.
Not a worry, but certainly a choice! As was the call to leave Bradley Zimmer off the roster. Zimmer is a net negative player over the course of a season but we’ve seen him contribute massively to winning specific games, both with the glove and on the bases. I think it’s more likely we end up at some point thinking “would have been nice to have Zimmer out there!” than it would be that we’d have thought the same about an absent Kikuchi at any point. But I suppose the Jays’ pinch running/defensive replacement options are better than their second-bullpen-lefty/mop-up options, so I’m not terribly worried about it.
• No Gurriel
Santiago Espinal has made it back to full health in time to have made the playoff roster, however Lourdes Gurriel Jr. had not. Jays manager John Schneider told reporters that the decision to leave him off was a tough one, but that Gurriel would have required a pinch runner any time he got on base, which obviously would have been too taxing for the bench.
It’s a shame he won’t be involved, particularly because he’s hit well against velocity this year, but given his time off and lack of power this year, it’s certainly not as disastrous an outcome as it may have felt a year ago.
Espinal seems likely to draw into the lineup against Robbie Ray in game two (with Whit Merrifield moving to the outfield in place of Raimel Tapia, in order to maximize the number of right-handed bats in the lineup).
• EDWIN???
[squealing noises]
Quickly…
• The umpires for the series were announced on Thursday, and it could be worse! Doug Eddings and Jeff Nelson will be elsewhere, and most of the crew for Jays-Mariners are guys no one has ever heard of. Usually means they do a good job!
• I am currently writing this on a GO Train that at every stop fills up more and more with Jays fans. This is awesome. Even with the shocking lack of masks! We’ve got to savour every moment of this. Playoff baseball!
• There has obviously been a ton written about this series and what to expect once it finally gets undeway. One I found particularly good was the preview by Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs.
• Another good pre-game read is from Sean Fitz-Gerald of the Athletic, who writes about just what a massive media property the Blue Jays are (with some interesting TV ad numbers that will be worth revisiting over the winter, I think).
• Hey, and speaking of that kind of stuff…
• It sounds like the roof will be closed for Friday’s game, which… is unexpected, and honestly won’t matter a ton anyway with the mass of screaming humanity that will be in the building. Hold on to your asses!
• Lastly, though I’m probably forgetting some stuff, I just wanted to say thanks so much to everyone who has read, subscribed, and extremely generously paid to be a subscriber throughout the year. I’ll get more sappy about it once the ride is over — and that sure as hell ain’t today — but this is the only way I make my living, it somehow works, and I have you all to thank for it.
Now let’s do this!
And don’t forget to catch Nick and I pre-game Saturday on Callin! My train is pulling into Union so I don’t have time to grab the link, but you know where!
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Just watched the game. Far out. Talk about a worst case scenario first inning to take the life out of the crowd. Such is the life of a Toronto sports fan. Let's hope they bounce back tomorrow, otherwise the movie's over and it's time to roll the credits.
Holy shit...just found out that international mlb.tv subscribers can't watch the games live...only archived! That sucks...complete self-imposed internet blackout for me I guess.