Kikuchi takes a step forward as another flat Jays performance throws one away in Boston
On Kikuchi's night, Bichette's defence, ump shows, RISP woes, vaccination rules, Charlie's quote, the tough road ahead, the weekend that was, Buck Martinez, and more!
The Blue Jays threw one away in Boston on Tuesday night, but it was a loss about a whole lot more than just one error. Here’s two up and one down!
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Up: An improved Kikuchi
It was a bit of an adventure at times, he struggled with command a bit (especially early), and required a few gems with the glove — some of which belonged to the pitcher himself, who fielded his position exceptionally well all night — but Yusei Kikuchi had his best outing as a Blue Jay in this one.
Aaaaand… exhale!
Kikuchi ended the night on a real high note, getting the top of the Red Sox' order 1-2-3 to end the fifth, leaving the game having allowed just one run on three hits and three walks over five innings. The three strikeouts is a little low, but given how he got here — starting the game with a four- and a five-pitch walk, yet still somehow escaping — we'll take it.
If you watched the Sportsnet broadcast you'll know that the story of the game for Kikuchi was his fastball. Of the 91 pitches he threw, 51 were four-seamers. That makes for 56%, which is well above the 35% of the time he used the pitch last year. He threw his cutter only 19% of the time, down from 35% in 2021 as well.
The cutter was more of a swing-and-miss pitch for him in this one, generating four whiffs on 10 swings. That 40% rate is considerably better than the 10% swing-and-miss rate he got from the pitch last season, and in his first start of the year last week. The sample is too small to take too much from that, but the hope is that working off the the four-seamer, rather than being used equally as frequently, will help a cutter that was tagged to the tune of a .426 xwOBA last season.
Other things of note in the numerical weeds: One, Kikuchi's four-seamer was up 98 rpm in spin rate, coming in at 2,311 rpm on average. Two, his slider was up 2.3 mph to 84.8. It wasn’t effective, but that’s interesting at least!
It was certainly not a perfect performance, but it was clearly a step in the right direction. You felt like the ingredients he possesses were coming together into something that could actually turn into a pretty great meal. The command will need to be better, the slider — which generated just one whiff on 11 swings, and just one called strike on 18 pitches — will need to be better, and the fastball will need to keep on being good enough to keep him comfortable using it this much. But still. Progress!
Down: Starting a tough run with a frustrating loss
I put a picture of Bo Bichette at the top of this one, because he made a couple of high profile throwing errors — one to kick off what would become a high-tension bottom of the fourth inning, another to start the bottom of the seventh, which would lead to Boston’s winning run on a sac fly — but he also had some flashes of brilliance in the field. This play to end the third was outstanding, for example!
Unfortunately, because of the way the game unfolded, and how crucial that second error was, we can’t really not talk about Bichette here. The way he flips the ball when he’s going to his left works when it works — particularly, it feels, when he doesn’t have time to do anything else. But when he does it on plays where he’s got a little more time, problems seem to arise. It’s a young shortstop problem, I think. But it’s a problem nonetheless.
“His first two errors of the season, I’m not going to put too much on it,” Charlie Montoyo said after the game. “But we do know that close games you make errors against teams like this they’re going to find ways to score.”
He’s right, of course. But we shouldn’t lose sight of the fact that there were certainly other reasons the Jays lost this one just because there’s one that’s especially glaring.
The offence, once again, laid an egg. Jays hitters scored just one run on eight hits, walking just once (coming into the game their 7.0% team walk rate ranked 27th in the majors), and going 0-for-5 with runners in scoring position (coming into the game they also ranked 27th in wRC+ with RISP!).
Plus, home plate umpire D.J. Reyburn absolutely lost the plot in the top of the eighth, gifting Hansel Robles three game-changingly absurd gift calls.
All of these are things that aren’t going to always happen — even if the RISP stuff feels right now like it’s never going to end — but it still sucks a whole that they did so here!
The Jays have now embarked on a run tougher than the Eliminator (look it up, kids). Canada’s vaccine laws may help them a little on the back-end of it — more on that in a minute — but I don’t think Brandon’s tweet here is hyperbole.
The Jays will win their fare share of these games, to be sure. They’re a good team. But it’s going to be a real knock-down-drag-out three weeks — particularly for April and early May. Could use a better one tomorrow!
Up: Charlie’s quote
The garbage from down south about the border restrictions issue is getting louder as visits to Toronto from the Red Sox and Yankees get closer. As noted by Ben Nicholson-Smith during Sportsnet’s pre-game show, if Aaron Judge hasn’t received his yet, he’s not going to be in Toronto in two weeks time. That should really get the the gasbags wound up!
Or, well, it likely will get them wound up. Should it? Absolutely not.
Mike Wilner has a good one in the pages of the Star about how the Jays are easily at the biggest disadvantage when it comes to this stuff. For one thing, MLB isn’t testing in-season unless players are symptomatic, except when travelling to and from Canada. The Jays will do that far, far more than anybody else, exposing them to a much greater potential for asymptomatic positives and the IL stints that would follow those.
Seems pretty important to always frame this “unfairness” nonsense with that incredibly important context, which is something American media seems to have no interest in doing as far as I’ve seen so far.
Of course, the even better take on the whole matter was this much more concise one, courtesy manager Charlie Montoyo:
Give ‘em hell, Charlie! You tell ‘em! Enough of this noise!
Other notes
• It was an up and down series for the Jays over the weekend, with plenty to touch on, but none of it was bigger than the announcement that Buck Martinez would be stepping away from the booth to undergo treatment for cancer. Too many of us know how tough it is to watch someone we love go through a thing like that, and it was a testament to how much Buck means to his Sportsnet teammates to have seen how deeply emotional they were about it on Sunday.
Fans, too. Sure, many of us goof on him, we gripe, we sometimes pine for more modern analysis from Buck and Tabby, we get exasperated. But we also kind of secretly love and delight in many of his foibles, I think. He clearly loves the game. He constantly comports himself with a smile and good humour. He’s as much of a legend as the franchise has, really.
The outpouring of love for him on Twitter Sunday was genuinely touching.
Get well soon, Buck.
• Now, some quick ups/downs regarding the baseball aspects of the Oakland series:
Friday: ▲ Ross Stripling (four strong innings). ▲ Vladdy’s bomb and Cack “Two-Hits” Zollins. ▲ Aroldis getting yanked in the 11th and the Yankees losing via walk-off walk in Baltimore (SHRIMP!)
Saturday: ▼ Hyun-Jin Ryu (averaged 88.7 on his fastball and immediately hit the IL with left-arm shittiness). ▼ Umpire Jeff Nelson (atrocious enough at his job to make Charlie Montoyo angry; we’ve all seen the Ump Scorecard). ▼ That stupid Cristian Pache home run (Julian Merryweather has allowed five homers in 13 1/3 innings since he returned last September; just 10 Ks over that span, with 11 earned runs allowed).
Sunday: ▲ Alek Manoah (bit of a wobble in the fifth but another great outing). ▼ Blue Jays security not letting in the Ump Scorecard sign in (completely factual!). ▲ That final hit from Pache staying in the ballpark (did not need a repeat of Saturday; 103.1 mph off the bat, .840 expected batting average).
• Some pre-game injury updates from Charlie Montoyo on Tuesday:
• MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweeted earlier on Tuesday afternoon that the hope is that Ryu “misses only 2-3 starts.” As long as he comes back able to throw it above 90!
• Alejandro Kirk has shown some defensive improvements so far this year, which have been incredibly welcome given the injury to Danny Jansen. Per a Scott Mitchell tweet from last week, bench coach John Schneider has taken notice. "The numbers speak for themselves receiving-wise and he’s pretty technically sound in terms of all aspects of catching,” he said. “At first glance, it’s kind of like ‘Who’s this?’ and when you get to see him over time, it’s pretty good.”
Kirk called a nice game for Kikuchi in this one, and Schneider is certainly right about the numbers. Prior to Tuesday’s contest, Kirk was ranked in the 61st percentile in terms of pitch framing, according to Statcast. Not elite, but firmly above average, and much better than his 31st percentile ranking in 2021. It would nice to see the bat get going, but maybe a focus on defence is the reason he’s been less successful than usual at the plate than one might expect.
• Even with a couple hits, Kirk is still sitting on just a 64 wRC+ so far this season, and not striking the ball particularly hard. Steamer projected a 129 wRC+ for him this year, so I don’t think there’s any reason to be particularly worried. But I understand a tweet like this one, too!
• Another day, another Zack Collins extra base hit. This time it was a 432 foot blast to lead off the second inning, putting the Jays in front 1-0. Ho hum! Plus a late-game hit against a left-hander!
It's obviously absurdly early days — Collins has just 21 plate appearances, and has a 33.3% strikeout rate and a .545 BABIP — but he's now slashing .400/.429/.800, which gives him a 259 wRC+. Fun while it lasts!
• A healthy David Phelps makes this team so much better.
• This team should have the highest payroll in baseball.
• Lastly, nice to see that the Vancouver Canadians are returning tonight to Nat Bailey Stadium for the first time since August 2019. Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi has a great one on their return, now as the Jays’ High-A affiliate, featuring the words of C’s manager Brent Lavalee — who grew up in nearby North Delta, B.C. Nice story.
Next up: Wednesday, 7:10 PM ET: Jays @ Red Sox (José Berríos vs. Nick Pivetta), TV: Sportsnet One, Radio: Sportsnet 590
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I may have compared Zack Collins to Socrates Brito last week, but I'm now putting my Brito vibes into Bradley Zimmer. Collins is now my favourite player.
Fascinating story by Nick Ashbourne on Sportsnet today about Vlad Jr not getting anything decent to hit. Makes his accomplishments this year seem even more impressive.
Very nice summary about Buck that pretty much nails it. I'm not sure I'll ever get over losing Tom Cheek. Best wishes to Buck for good health and a return to the booth later this year. We all miss him already.