Today in MLBTR: Monday, November 15th
On Eduardo Rodriguez, Cavan Biggio, bullpen thoughts, Alejandro Kirk, Pablo López, Matt Chapman, Justin Verlander, Rule 5 decisions, Gabriel Moreno, and more!
We have a multiyear free agent deal! By which I mean MLB has a multiyear free agent deal, not the Blue Jays. But still, the Tigers’ new five-year agreement with starter Eduardo Rodriguez was a bit of a surprise move here with a little over two weeks left before the collective bargaining agreement expires — and hopefully it portends more transactions to come.
So let’s talk about it!
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With help from the always invaluable MLB Trade Rumors, here’s a look at all the latest rumours, rumblings, and transactions around the league from a Blue Jays perspective…
Tigers sign Eduardo Rodriguez
Well it seems like it was a good idea of me not to rush this piece out last night, which I almost did, because the pitching market had a pretty significant development this morning with reports surfacing that the Tigers have signed a five-year, $77 million deal (that includes a 2023 opt-out) with now former Red Sox lefty Eduardo Rodriguez.
Rodriguez was a guy that the Jays had reportedly had interest in — though that information from a Jon Morosi tweet, so (like literally every “Team X interested in Player Y” report this time of year) it needed to be taken with a hefty grain of salt — but obviously they weren’t willing to extend themselves as far as the Tigers did here for a guy who is more of a very good mid-rotation starter than he is a frontline one. And who was going to require them to give up a draft pick in order to get his name on a contract, as he will obviously be rejecting the qualifying offer made to him by the Red Sox last week.
How big of a push the Jays may have made is unknown at this point (Update: Jon Heyman tweets that the Jays “tried” but Rodriguez “opted for Detroit,” whatever that means), but obviously they’ll have interest in just about any pitcher in this tier of the market. Their preference there, however, would probably be to find guys who are a little cheaper and don’t have the QO attached — though I’d think the QO will be less of an issue if they’re pushing for top-of-the-market guys.
Rodriguez isn’t quite that, and with guys out there who didn’t receive qualifying offers like Steven Matz, Kevin Gausman, Carlos Rodón, Jon Gray, Antony DeSclafani, and several other trade options (many of which we’ll get to below), it’s not hard to see why they didn’t go for this. Of course, since the deal sets the mid-tier market at a pretty high cost, they may not end up better off than waiting.
Then again, maybe Rodriguez wouldn’t have been either. There are some warts there. Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald wrote on Sunday that Boston should turn their attention to Justin Verlander instead of setting their payroll up so that “their No. 3 or No. 4 starter, one who had a 4.75 ERA in 2021 and a career 4.16 ERA, would be the fourth-highest paid player on the roster.”
I suppose I get that thinking (Verlander should sign with the Jays though!), but I don’t think that’s a great read on the value of a free agent who won't turn 29 until April and has a 3.83 FIP for his career and is coming off a 3.32 FIP season (after missing all of the shortened 2020 season due to picking up myocarditis due to Covid-19).
Rodríguez is above average at generating strikeouts and suppressing walks, does a decent job of keeping the ball in the ballpark, and in 2021 had an uncharacteristic .363 BABIP that helped lead to that ugly ERA in 2021 (actually 4.74, per FanGraphs). The lefty is a good bet for a bounce back, and clearly the Tigers believe. It’s a nice move for them here.
Atkins on offseason goals
Lots of tidbits here from the tail end of last week’s GM Meetings, which originally come from a piece from TSN’s Scott Mitchell. Among them:
• The Jays would obviously like to add an infielder, but they don’t necessarily “feel like we absolutely have to,” according to Atkins. Now, Ross tends to do his best to avoid absolutes, so I don’t think we should read too much into that, but I don’t think a win-now team going into the season with two starting infield positions covered by a combination of Cavan Biggio, Santiago Espinal, Breyvic Valera, Kevin Smith, Samad Taylor, Otto López, and maybe Gabriel Moreno is a great idea!
• Speaking of Biggio, Atkins continues to have big confidence there. “I’m really excited about Cavan Biggio next year,” he said. “I feel like with the injuries he had this year and I’m just extremely optimistic we’re going to see a very good player in Cavan moving forward, not just next year.”
Again, that’s something he’s not not going to say, but Biggio is so tough to get a read on because it's completely realistic to say that injuries were the bigger issue for him in 2021 than the league finally figuring out how to expose his flaws. A lot has been written, including around here, about Biggio's inability to hit velocity, but there are certainly guys who had successful seasons while being worse than he was by xwOBA against pitches above 95 mph in 2021 (min. 1000 pitches faced), including Brandon Belt, Randy Arozarena, and Wander Franco. That one number isn't the whole story, of course. But even if you bump the threshold up to pitches at 97 or higher, the part of the ranking where Biggio falls, low as it is, isn't necessarily full of the worst hitters out there.
He can potentially be useful, if healthy, he may just need his matchups watched more carefully than most. Will be interesting to see how he does in 2022, as he’s likely going to start out getting close to full-time at-bats, but — as evidenced by that collection of names above — will have a bunch of guys gunning for his job.
• “Another arm that could get a strikeout late in the game would be a nice piece to have and hopefully we have a couple of those,” Atkins said.
Part of what will make the Jays' ability to add back there easier is the fact that Atkins told Scott that Jordan Romano, who excelled in the closer role last season, is willing to be flexible about his role. That could potentially put some top-of-the-market closer options in play for the Jays.
That seems to me like something that probably won't be on the table unless they go the cheaper route in the starting pitching market, but definitely an intriguing idea given how tough a year it was for most of their bullpen. A handful of low-risk, high-reward guys still seems the more likely play for them here, but maybe this is the year that changes that narrative.
• The Jays are, obviously, staying in touch with Robbie Ray and Marcus Semien.
“A lot of it is in their hands,” Atkins said. “We’re very respectful of them getting to free agency and earning the right to explore that market, so much of it is not necessarily following their lead but being respectful of them wanting to take some time to do that. What we can do is just constantly communicate with their representation and stay in contact consistently to understand the potential of needing to go another direction while we maintain those as options.”
No surprises there.
What was surprising was that back on Friday it was reported, initially by Jeff Passan of ESPN, that there’s a chance some of the high-end free agents could sign before the CBA expires. That seemed awfully unlikely to me at the time, as it would seemingly rule a number of clubs out of their markets because it will be important for the big spending clubs to know where the luxury tax threshold ends up going forward, but I guess with the Rodriguez deal that idea is out the window. At least for some guys.
That’s fine by me. Let’s see some transactions before the long, cold, lockout winter sets in!
Marlins looking to move starting pitchers?
Nick and I talked about this on Blue Jays Happy Hour back on Friday, but I think it’s worth revisiting for those who missed it, because the Marlins have some pretty good pitching they could potentially move this winter, and their needs — behind the plate and in the outfield — line up pretty well with the Jays’ offensive surplus. In fact, Jon Morosi tweeted back on Thursday that the Jays "have checked" with the Marlins on their starters, highlighting Pablo López (good) and Elieser Hernández (meh) as "Miami's most available arms," and suggesting Alejandro Kirk "is likely to be part of talks."
This one really gives us a great example of how to actually read a Morosi tweet at this time of year. “Have checked” is concrete — he’s reporting something that happened there. Saying López and Hernández are the Marlins’ most available arms may well be true as well, but as it’s written in the tweet he’s not saying that the Jays necessarily spoke about those players specifically when they checked in. And when it comes to Kirk, the word “likely” is doing some real heavy lifting. As written, that’s just his own thought.
A couple kernels of reporting plus some reasonable speculation makes it sound like the Jays and Marlins are out here talking about Kirk for López or Hernández, but that’s not really what’s being said at all — and apparently isn’t even accurate.
It certainly could make some sense though. Especially López, who hasn't been the most durable, making just 21 big league starts in 2019, and 20 this in 2021, but has taken a big step forward in terms of his strikeout rate since the start of 2020 and produced a 3.07 ERA and 3.29 FIP in 102 2/3 innings for Miami this season.
I don’t think Kirk is enough for a guy like that who is only a few months older than Nate Pearson and is just about to have his first of three trips through arbitration (i.e. remains relatively cheap), but maybe it’s a start.
Jays potentially a match for Matt Chapman
Friend of the site Darragh McDonald penned this one for MLBTR, speculating about which teams might be the best fit for Oakland’s former All-Star and three-time Gold Glove winning third baseman — a contract that the A’s, who seem potentially about to embark on an ugly fire sale, might inclined to move. Both MLBTR and Roster Resource project that Chapman will make $9.5 million in 2022, which will be his second last year of arbitration eligibility (assuming the system stays the same under the new CBA). He’s coming off a down year, which, as Darragh writes, puts Oakland at a crossroads. “Holding Chapman comes with the risk that he could be injured again, or just stay his 2021 level and see his trade value reduced as he gets closer to free agency. The way to avoid that risk would be to just make a move now, even if his trade value isn’t at its peak.”
What that means is that there’s a lot of upside to a play for Chapman, too. Especially given that you’re not going to be sending Oakland the kind of package for him that you would have needed to a year or two ago.
The price could still be pretty high, though! The piece brings up Nate Pearson or Jordan Groshans as potential prospects that could go the other way.
That feels like a whole lot given that Chapman struck out 32.5% of the time in 2021 and produced a wRC+ of just 101. But it’s not unreasonable to think there could be a solid bounce back in there. Chapman’s exit velocity was well down early on in the year from the 93.0 mph average he had from 2018 to 2020 — which may be explained by his recovery from hip surgery that ended his 2020 season early — but rebounded somewhat as the season went on.
Obviously he didn’t get all the way back to his earlier levels, which is a concern. But perhaps that will return even more with a full, healthy offseason and a little more time removed from the hip surgery. If so, a team trading for him would be getting a hell of a player for the next two years. In fact, they’d be getting that just for his glove alone. Even the league average hitter that Chapman was in 2021 was still worth 3.4 fWAR.
Rule 5 decisions due this week
Here’s one that’s not on MLBTR just yet, but is something definitely worth watching for the week ahead. Teams have until Friday to add players to their 40-man rosters in order to protect them from being exposed for potential selection in the Rule 5 draft.
The Jays only have 33 players on their 40-man at the moment, which I think sounds like more room to add than it is. They’ll need to keep some spots open to add free agents on big league deals later in the off-season, so we’re not going to simply see them protect seven players. They may, in fact, move some players off the 40 in order to give their spots to someone else, much like in the way that the Rays sent infielder Mike Brosseau to the Brewers for relief prospect Evan Riefert on Saturday.
It will be interesting to see whether Friday’s deadline spurs some actual activity here. Were a lockout not looming in a couple weeks this would be an opportune time for the Jays to get some work on the fringes of their 40-man done — or even some bigger deals. Maybe it still will.
Before we can think about that stuff, let’s think about who they might be considering adding to the roster.
There are eligible higher-end positional prospects like Miguel Hiraldo and Leo Jimenez, who are far away enough that they may not require protection (and Hiraldo’s tough 2021 in Low-A may make it a moot point for him), but they certainly have upside the Jays won’t want to risk losing if they think there’s a chance they’re taken. There’s also Samad Taylor, who had such a nice breakout this season in Double-A New Hampshire that he’ll probably warrant a spot. Then there are a bunch of interesting arms who could be in danger of being scooped up and thrown into another organization's bullpen. One is Joey Murray, who had a breakout in 2019 that saw him succeed across three levels, but has barely pitched since, which could spare him (though if I were, say, Ben Cherington, I’d probably be willing to take a shot on him if he was there in the Rule 5). Another is Eric Pardinho, who was once a hyped prospect but has had an awful time with injuries in recent years (so probably is safe). There are Hagen Danner and Graham Spraker, who have some upside as high strikeout relievers (though the former may be too green for teams to take a risk on). There's also Zach Logue, who had a strong enough 2021 season to make him look like a real potential depth starter option. There are surely others under consideration as well.
That’s not a huge group of guys that they really need to worry about, but there are some tough decisions still to be made — both on who to expose and on how the roster should actually be composed. What do I mean by that? Well, if the Jays add Taylor he’d be the seventh infielder on the 40-man, with the club aiming to bring another big leaguer or two into that group this winter as well. Add Jimenez and Hiraldo and that’s nine infielders. Not exactly ideal. So maybe you consider finally saying goodbye to Breyvic Valera, or working out a deal involving Kevin Smith, Otto López, or any of the three potential adds. And on the pitching side maybe guys like Anthony Castro, Tayler Saucedo, or Kirby Snead lose their spots or get moved. Or maybe Trent Thornton or Anthony Kay end up going elsewhere.
Could something bigger be in play still? That would be fun, wouldn’t it?
Announce Verlander to the Blue Jays you cowards!
Quick hits
• Related to some of the pitching stuff above, we have a small item that didn’t make it to MLBTR until Saturday, but was first reported by Shi Davidi of Sportsnet in the middle of last week: the fact that the Jays made a “strong offer” to Andrew Heaney before the lefty signed with the Dodgers last week for one year and $8 million. I mean, a deal like that with Robbie Ray worked out really well for them last year, so why not try to hit pay dirt twice? Plus, clearly they like the idea of adding some certainty early on in the winter. It wouldn’t be shocking to see them try to check something off their list early again — especially with the pre-lockout market moving a little more heavily than we thought it might.
• A couple former Jays relievers have decided to call it a career, as Joakim Soria announced his retirement in the middle of last week, while on Friday a pitcher whose Jays career will be much more fondly remembered, Brett Cecil, announced his retirement as well. Cecil hasn't pitched in the big leagues since 2018, but has only just now come to the end of the four-year $30.5 million contract he signed with St. Louis after the 2016 season. Cecil was one of the better relievers in the game from 2013 to 2016, compiling 3.9 fWAR for the Jays over that span, which ranked 22nd among all big league relievers. You also can’t convince me that the 2015 playoffs would have gone differently had he not torn his calf muscle in game two against the Rangers.
• In an NL notes piece, we’re told that Brewers president of baseball operations David Stearns told MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy and Jordan Bastian that he expects they’ll still be a “run prevention” team next season, explaining that “it’s really tough to trade pitching.” It is perhaps worth noting, however, that the Jays and Brewers have managed to line up on a couple pitching-for-hitting trades in recent years: Chase Anderson for prospect Chad Spanberger in 2019, and Trevor Richards and Bowden Francis for Rowdy Tellez this season. I don’t know what the shape of another Brewers-Jays trade might look like, because I certainly wouldn’t expect the Jays to be able to land any of Milwaukee’s top talent, but they seem to be decent trade partners.
• Great piece today from Arden Zwelling over at Sportsnet, as he has a lengthy talk with Nate Pearson about his difficult last two seasons, getting surgery after the season, and many other things. The money quote for me (as you may have seen on Twitter) was when Pearson spoke about his rookie teammate Alek Manoah.
“Alek’s got amazing stuff. But what makes him so good is that he’s so confident. His mound presence is crazy to watch. I learned so much from him,” Pearson says. “I was like, ‘That's how I need to pitch. That's how I should be. I should be that bulldog out there.’ And I realized I’d kind of lost myself. I was like that and I lost it for a bit due to injuries and everything else.”
There’s no shame in being impressed to hell with Manoah, who came in and pitched like a veteran despite having just 35 innings of minor league experience. And while it’s not great to see Pearson talk about having lost himself, it’s great to see him recognizing this. His stuff is still so good, as we saw when he pitched out of the bullpen at the end of last season, that you have to still believe there might be a frontline starter in there, but 2022 is going to be an incredibly important year in that process. In the piece, it certainly sounds like his head is back in the right place — especially after being able to finish the season healthy and strong.
Fingers crossed!
• Lastly, Gabriel Moreno continues to turn heads in the Arizona Fall League (which is still playing for another week despite the Fall Stars Game taking place over the weekend). The hype is real!
Reading between the lines here it seems the Jays will wait on any veteran INF play and move first on pitching. I also thought I detected a soupçon of putting our money on the bullpen and a top tier closer.