Today in MLBTR: The offseason is underway!
On catchers, Kodai Senga, Anthony Bass, the 40-man, Manoah, Vlad, Chris Flexen, free agents, non-tendering Teoscar??!?, Robert Suarez, Stripling, payroll, Pearson, Danner, Schneider, and more!
MLB's annual GM meetings are taking place this week in Las Vegas, and you know what that means! It's time to extrapolate from a handful of intentionally opaque quotes and simple common knowledge and turn them into full-blown rumours!
The content machine demands fresh meat, and this is the week where we start to hear the faint electrical sizzling sounds of the hotstove starting to heat up.
Oh, does your stove work properly? Anyway, here are all the latest Jays-related crumbs from the always invaluable MLB Trade Rumors, plus some extra stuff that hasn’t showed up on there just yet!
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Catching hints…
This year’s hotstove season began in the most appropriate way possible: with an absolute Morosi classic.
I’ll give him that it’s sourced, at least. But did it even have to be? “Expected” tells us nothing of value at the best of times. It’s especially worthless when there really is no other plausible answer than “yeah, obviously,” that would have come from “multiple rival execs” when asked, “So, do ya think the Jays are going to trade a catcher?”
We’ve been talking about this for at least a year already. It’s obvious. No matter how Ross Atkins tries to spin it, Gabriel Moreno can’t be held back any longer, and there is no justification for having three everyday catchers on your roster when so much of a catcher’s value lies in the fact that they can actually handle the rigors of the position.
Ross is, indeed, trying to spin it though. He was asked about the possibility of trading a catcher by reporters in Las Vegas and explained, “We’re in a position where we do not have to do that to make our team better. Their potential versatility – more on the Moreno side than with the other two – is a positive for us.”
For the sake of both his players and rival executives, Atkins obviously wouldn’t let it be known that he thinks trading one of his backstops is necessary. And he’s not wrong that Moreno could probably handle a position like second base or, despite his 50th percentile sprint speed (putting him right Danny Jansen and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. among Blue Jays), spend some time in the outfield. But I’m not sure how he could think anyone would be fooled by that nonsense.
You’re telling me that Moreno — who has elite pop times (a skill that’s going to grow in importance due to upcoming rule changes that have led to a significant increase in stolen base attempts in the minors), outstanding athleticism behind the plate, whose bat is big-league-ready, who looks like a guy who could be an All-Star calibre catcher for years, and who already missed a ton of reps in 2020 due to the pandemic, 2021 because of the thumb injury, and 2022 for a variety of reasons (he only started 67 times behind the plate between Buffalo and Toronto) — is going to be asked to spend the age-23 season of his development in a three-man catching rotation? Because the team couldn’t bring itself to trade Danny Jansen???
We all love Jano, and I can’t actually say for certain that these too-clever-by-half Jays wouldn’t actually try a galaxy brained idea like this, but that’s what it is.
Moreno needs to play. Kirk is literally an All-Star who won’t even reach arbitration for the first time until next winter, has closed a ton of the gap between himself and Jansen defensively, and worked incredibly well with AL Cy Young finalist Alek Manoah.
And Jansen is what?
Well, the way I’d put it is that he’s a catcher who would have a lot of appeal to teams that don’t already have two cheaper options with higher ceilings who are much farther away from free agency. The things about him that appeal to the Jays, and to Jays fans, are things that will make him a desirable option on the trade market. His inability to stay on the field is a knock against him, but the bat has looked great over his last 300-odd plate appearances, his defence is sound, and he seems to have the intangibles that teams look for in a catcher. He’s also not a one-year rental, but is only two years away from free agency and projected to make just $3.7 million through arbitration next year, meaning he won’t require the huge commitment — either in terms of dollars or players going the other way — that would be necessary for a team looking at trying to land Moreno, Kirk, or other high-profile names out there, such as Oakland’s Sean Murphy, or free agent Wilson Contreras.
He’ll have value. Hell, given the risk-averse nature of most front offices, he might be the jewel of the catching market.
Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch wrote about that very market this week, and the article includes a big ol’ picture of Jano at the top. The Cardinals obviously need a replacement for the recently retired Yadier Molina, and Goold tells us that GM John Mozeliak called finding one the club's “initial focus” for the winter.
Mozeliak indicated that they'll be leaning toward defence on this, which likely rules out Contreras. He also said this, per Goold:
“The responsibility of a catcher directly has leadership demands,” Mozeliak said. “Especially if we’re trying to at least somewhat replicate the processes we’ve built over the past 20 years. Not saying that anybody is going to fill Yadi’s shoes. Yadi did take the lead in a lot of those pitchers meetings. He was someone who gave a lot of advice. To take a step backward — we don’t want to go so far back that we’re shaking our heads. We also now have a new pitching coach, so there’s going to be some — look, there’s change.”
A guy like Murphy could fit the bill there. So could free agent Christian Vázquez. So could Jansen.
And the thing about dealing Jansen is that the Jays won’t have to “win the trade” to win the trade. Going into 2023 with Moreno, Kirk, and just about anything else will be a net gain over going into the season with all three of Moreno, Kirk, and Jansen. Frankly, the Jays’ catching barely takes a hit in that scenario.
Oh no! More games played by the two other guys who are also very good!
Obviously if the Jays can swing a blockbuster with one of their other catchers that’s certain to make the team better too, but those deals are a lot easier to pull off in practice than in reality. What would be even harder to pull off — maybe even impossible — is carrying three guys who can each only provide the team with the full value of their skillset 33% of the time and calling it anything but a failure of roster management.
Like, what are we doing here?
The Senga bus is coming…
The Blue Jays, uh, maybe don't have the best track record lately when it comes to acquiring Japanese pitchers, but there will be an opportunity to change that this winter. Sadly, though, I don't mean this because they're going to be landing best player on the planet, as Angels GM Perry Minasian declared this week that Shohei Ohtani won’t be getting traded this winter (presumably adding, “so you can go right ahead and re-up your season ticket Angels fans!”).
No, I mean because 29-year-old right-hander Kodai Senga will be hitting the market as a straight-up free agent, having opted out of his contract with the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks. He’s not coming over via the “posting system,” so a fee won’t be owed to his former team. And he’s a pretty intriguing arm, who apparently is also a target of the Blue Jays — and just about everyone else, it must be said.
Senga struck out 159 batters in 148 innings over 23 starts, walking just three batters per nine, allowing just seven home runs, and pitching to a 1.89 ERA. And this is no mere Shun Yamaguchi. Last week MLB.com's Thomas Harrigan provided a handy fact sheet on Senga, noting that in 2019 his fastball jumped from the 92 mph range to 95-96 mph, and in 2022 he maxed out at 101.9.
And, naturally, he has a pitch with a nickname: the Ghost Fork (which would maybe be better described as a splitter, but obviously that doesn’t sound as cool).
The Jays are going to have to replace Ross Stripling in a way that’s more meaningful than their mid-summer addition of Mitch White. This could certainly be one avenue toward that, and evidently there’s some interest there.
But don’t take it from me, take it from another Morosi tweet!
The Jays will, of course, have dialogue with pretty much every free agent, but there’s a little more meat in this tweet than the previous one — mostly because it’s quoting Atkins himself.
Plus, Sportsnet’s Shi David had even more from Atkins on Senga on Wednesday, which makes it plain that the Jays have gone beyond tire kicking.
The Blue Jays’ interest in him was demonstrated this summer when they dispatched two senior officials to watch him pitch and Atkins was as blatant about the team’s intentions as he gets when he said, “we have done enough work to be ready to have dialogue.”
Whether having a “strong relationship” with the agent matters even a little bit is a matter of interpretation, but I tend to be of the mind that it at least could. It certainly does in soccer, though that’s a sport with a very different player movement structure. And it certainly mattered in the years when the Jays and Scott Boras had a bad relationship. It also can perhaps be inferred that it helped when the Jays signed Kendrys Morales and Lourdes Gurriel Jr., who both were represented by the same agency, at the same time in late 2016.
How much of that “one hand washes the other” stuff actually goes on is impossible to say, but it’s at least interesting to think about.
Wolfe, a Canadian who went to Bishops University, represented Marcus Semien until last winter, when the former Jays infielder switched to Boras. We know how highly Semien thought of the city and the team, and Wolfe shouldn’t have any qualms advising a player that Canada is his best choice.
It’s not like Senga and Wolfe would be willing to leave millions on the table in order to come to Toronto, but all offers being equal? Perhaps it could help.
Actual news!
• Though it hasn’t yet been made official by the team, Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith confirms that the Jays have exercised their $3 million option on reliever Anthony Bass. The alternative wouldn’t have been paying him $1 million in order to buy out the final year of his deal, and considering that Bass — despite the criticism the Jays took for their deadline acquisitions — was one of the better relievers in baseball this season, this was always going to happen.
• We’ve got official transactions, too! The Jays announced on Wednesday evening that they’ve cleared a pair of 40-man roster spots, as LHP Tayler Saucedo has been claimed on waivers by the Mets, and RHP Casey Lawrence has cleared outright waivers and been assigned to Buffalo.
I’ve written a couple of times about the Jays’ 40-man situation already this winter, most recently in my piece on trade tiers, and while they’re not exactly facing a major roster crunch like some teams, they still have some work to do. As I wrote in that one, “Among guys who are Rule-5-eligible, it seems highly likely to me that they'll add Yosver Zulueta, Spencer Horwitz, Orelvis Martinez, and Addison Barger. Gabriel Martinez is far away but may get added as well. Adrian Hernandez, Brandon Eisert, and Jimmy Robbins would probably be smart additions.”
At the time of this writing there are 38 players on their 40-man, with potential subtractions still to come including: Matt Gage, Foster Griffin, Vinny Capra, and Bradley Zimmer, as well as some higher profile guys like Raimel Tapia, Anthony Kay, Thomas Hatch, Trent Thornton, Julian Merryweather, and Cavan Biggio. Watch out for deals!
• Not Jays related, but the first notable trade of the winter was also announced on Wednesday evening, as the Rangers have acquired former Jays target Jake Odorizzi from Atlanta in exchange for former 14th overall pick LHP Kolby Allard. Gettin’ hotter.
• Of course, also announced this week were the AL and NL Cy Young Award finalists, and, as mentioned above, Alek Manoah was among the top three vote getters in the American League. He spoke about it on MLB Network:
• This barely qualifies as news, and is a few days old at this point, but announce the Vladdy extension already, Blue Jays!
Links…
• Something in Darragh McDonald’s Senga piece at MLBTR that caught my eye was the assertion that the Mariners — also a potential fit for the flamethrower — have a bit of a surplus in their rotation. Chris Flexen, who is not a high strikeout guy but has been a FIP-busting innings-eater for the last couple of years and some Stripling-esque qualities, was pushed out of Seattle’s rotation when they added Luis Castillo at the trade deadline. Lo and behold, my friend and former colleague, Kaitlyn McGrath, identified Flexen as a potential target in a deal proposal with the Athletic’s M’s guy, Corey Brock. It could work!
• Sticking with people and stuff we’ve, uh, already talked about, Ben Nicholson-Smith details the catching market, and finds several potential fits for one of the Jays’ backstops. The best fit of all, it seems? The Cardinals.
• More from Benny Fresh, as he goes through each of the top free agents who will be available this winter and assesses their fit for the Jays and the likelihood of the Jays having interest. Good read.
• And two more from Ben, as he tweeted on Tuesday that Ross Atkins said the club has been in touch with Ross Stripling and “expressed interest in bringing him back” (though that’s what they always say, and I highly doubt a qualifying offer is in the cards), and also tweeted that a name on the Jays’ relief radar is Robert Suarez, who throws 98, struck out 61 in 47 2/3 innings this year, posted a 2.27 ERA, and just opted out of his deal with the Padres. Works for me!
• Elsewhere at Sportsnet, Shi Davidi offered up a primer for the Jays’ offseason on Monday, centering around the question of just how transformative a winter the club will have. Paths are there, but regarding the financial situation, Shi writes that “the initial sense is that for the Blue Jays to make another big-money signing, they’ll need to move some money off the roster.” Oof.
• Going back to Shi’s Wednesday piece from Las Vegas, he writes that, while the Jays can essentially run back the same team that won 92 games this season (with Stripling being the only major departing free agent), there are some very tangible reasons to believe that won’t be good enough. “A better Orioles team takes a few wins away and the Blue Jays are unlikely to dominate a team the way they went 16-3 against the Boston Red Sox this past season, so that changes the post-season path.” Hard to disagree.
• Also in that piece: Ross Atkins saying that there’s been interest in the Jays’ relievers — something that, in my view, could work if the right replacements are found (two of which might be already on the 40-man in Nate Pearson and Hagen Danner) — and Shi telling us that Atkins mentioned “adding one starter as the starting point.” It’s got to be tough for the front office to have to throw more resources at the rotation, but given the seasons that White, Kikuchi, and José Berríos just had, it has to be done.
• Speaking of Pearson and Danner…
• TSN’s Scott Mitchell also has a great breakdown of a ton of potential pitching targets for the Jays, starting with a free agent they got close to landing last winter: Justin Verlander.
• The Sun’s Rob Longley recently sat down with the Jays’ newly minted non-interim manager, John Schneider, who talks about his family, his career, the transition from bench coach to manager, and shares the great story of how his minor league playing career ended (I’m not going to spoil it).
• D.M. Fox takes a deeper look at Zach Britton — not the one who Buck Showalter left sitting in the Rogers Centre bullpen back in 2016, but the prospect who may be turning into more than just a fringe guy.
• ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel takes an in-depth look at this year’s top 50 free agents, including his estimations of the contracts each will receive. I, uh, hope his guesses at those are better than his guesses at which guys are non-tender candidates, as he makes this aside between the players he has ranked 42nd and 43rd: “This is around where non-tenders who would become free agents in a couple of weeks could make this list. The crop of potential players who might reasonably be added to this free agent market include (in order of projected guaranteed money): Cody Bellinger, Teoscar Hernandez, Hunter Renfroe, Gio Urshela and Brad Keller.”
• The Pirates absolutely cannot believe this, but lying and cynicism is just par for the course among the league’s bottom-feeders! Pry him away, Jays!
• Lastly, the tweet above reminds me of one that I came across when looking into agent Joel Wolfe’s background earlier. Bang on. Also a great reminder of how nice it is to be on the precipice of an offseason that doesn’t have a lockout looming over it!
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The catcher thing is getting over-hyped. Unless he can be used to get a very good starter (with years of control or whatever) we shouldn't trade Moreno. He could be our catcher for years! Jansen isn't going to get much back. Kirk would get more. So one of those could be traded to get....something.
Or we solve the problem by putting Kirk in centerfield.
Call me crazy.