Today in MLBTR: Thursday, July 29 (UPDATED)
Berríos rumours, a Gallo rant, Scherzer talk, Schwarber a target, and more!
The trade deadline is just one day away, and though the Blue Jays are still maybe stuck in the mushy middle a little too much to really pull off a blockbuster, it sure felt like they should have done so last night! It also doesn’t mean that they aren’t going to make moves — or that they aren’t being mentioned in all kinds of speculation.
Which blockbuster? Which speculation? Which deals that don’t directly involve the Jays are still going to affect them? Let’s take a look through some of the latest rumours and rumblings from the always invaluable MLB Trade Rumors and find out!
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The Jays get Hand (and they’re gonna need it)
In case you missed it, the Jays have made a mid-tier deadline week splash, picking up closer Brad Hand from the Nationals in exchange for catching prospect Riley Adams. I wrote about it earlier this afternoon.
Yankees acquire Joey Gallo
At the time the New York Yankees traded for Joey Gallo they were one game ahead of the Blue Jays in the standings and 82 runs of run differential behind them.
Eighty-two!
Optimistic Jays fans have maybe tended to rely too much at times on a half season of run differential to give themselves hope, but, as 2015 proved, it’s not meaningless. It doesn’t tell us on its own that the Jays are better than — or at least as good as — the Yankees, but it’s a mark in their favour, especially with a third of a season still to play and both clubs facing similarly light schedules. And yet on Wednesday night one team very clearly behaved like it had real championship aspirations, leaving the other in the dust.
The Yankees acquired right fielder Joey Gallo, a great fielder and lefty hitter with awesome power who might hit 1,000 home runs over the absurdly short right field porch over next year-and-a-half in the Bronx. They didn’t quite move heaven and earth to land him, but they did act like a win-now team. They wore their big boy pants. The Jays, who were arguably in a better situation, with a bigger need and a better farm system, can’t say the same.
Struggling lefty reliever Joely Rodríguez will join Gallo in pinstripes. Heading the other way are prospects infielders Ezequiel Duran, Josh Smith, and Trevor Hauver, plus right-hander Glenn Otto. Initially there was some loud outcry because of how low some of these players appeared on the various publicly-available lists of the Yankees’ best prospects. Those lists are, of course, mostly generated over the winter, before a wealth of new data and new reports become available. Baseball America did fans a favour and gave an early release to their mid-season Yankees top 30, which had Duran at number six, Smith at number eight, Otto at 20, and Hauver at 22.
Not very useful information, but worth noting: The Jays’ pre-season number six for BA was Orelvis Martinez and their pre-season number eight was Gabriel Moreno. And since there are a remarkable seven Blue Jays on BA’s mid-season top 100, we know that when their own updated top 30 comes out that numbers six and seven will be Jordan Groshans and Alejandro Kirk. (Simeon Woods Richardson, who has dropped due to his less-than-stellar performance in Double-A, would be my guess as their new number eight).
Now, obviously you can’t draw a line between prospects in different orgs based solely on their rankings. Some systems are better than others, some are more top heavy, and the teams you’re trading with are always going to have their own preferences. We see that every year in the variances between the publicly made lists. It’s entirely possible that Texas just liked the Yankees pieces here better for their own reasons and that to beat their offer the Jays would have had to part with someone they desperately didn’t want to part with. I get that. I just wonder sometimes if the Jays maybe don’t put enough value on keeping guys out of the hands of the Yankees.
That’s frustration talking, obviously. I didn’t expect the Jays to pull off a blockbuster this week, and I have no idea what the Jays’ internal valuations are or where they draw the line on what they’re going to give up in trade. But god damn it, you fools! The Yankees have it easy enough as it is without you getting right up to the edge of making a trade and then letting them have it while you walk away with nothing.
And it gets worse! The stupid, piss-soaked Rangers are paying for the privilege of getting better players back from New York. Texas will pay the remainder of Gallo’s salary for this season, and Rodríguez’s. Combine that with the fact that the Yankees spun off a couple of arms to the Reds on Tuesday, and they’ve still got some dollars to work with under the luxury tax threshold. In other words, they’re still going to be adding.
Big boy pants indeed.
Our argument that the Jays are a better team than the Yankees is quickly going up in smoke, and will continue to do so if Ross Atkins and company don’t do more than just adding Brad Hand. I get that New York is in a different place in their championship window than the Jays are, but for a team you have objectively played better than to go out and make moves like a contender while you continue spin your wheels? It’s incredibly dispiriting for fans to watch. Four games out of a wild card spot with one third of a season to go and a record that belies all the talent on your roster and you let your fucking division rivals get their hands on a player who checks off two major boxes on the list of areas you need help in (corner outfield defence, legit left-handed power bat) with a deal that also happens to allow them to do more to help themselves over the next 24 hours? Unacceptable. Genuinely unacceptable.
Update: The Yankees are also getting Anthony Rizzo
6:45 PM Thursday
Slugging Cubs first baseman Anthony Rizzo is also on his way to the Yankees according to multiple reports. This sucks less than the Gallo thing because Rizzo is a rental and not the hitter he once was (115 wRC+ in 2021, 103 wRC+ in 2020), but as a fan it’s a similar gut punch.
I don’t care that they’re older and less reliant on their farm system for the future, watching a team in such a similar position to the Blue Jays find another gear and explode past them on talent in a matter of hours kinda sucks. The Yankees are much better today than they were 24 hours ago. The Jays could almost look at what their division rivals have just done here and feel justified to now say fuck it and fold up. They shouldn’t. That would be shameful as hell. But it’s that dispiriting.
According to that mid-season Baseball America update, Alcantara and Vizcaino are the club’s number 12 and number 14 prospect. That the Yankees are handing out prospects just to stay under the luxury tax is definitely unusual in the prospect-hugging world of big league front offices, but more power to them. Fun things are fun and counting your team’s mid-tier prospects, insisting the time isn’t quite right yet, is not a whole lot better than counting your owner’s dollars when it comes to free agent spending. Go give your team a chance. This year. When they are already good.
Ryan Tepera goes to the White Sox
Former Blue Jays reliever — and former NL MVP vote-getter — Ryan Tepera has been traded across town, as he moves from the Chicago Cubs to the White Sox. Going the other way is prospect arm Bailey Horn, who was rated at 35+ Future Value by FanGraphs as a 2020 fifth round pick coming out of last season, and in his first taste of pro ball had a nice turn in Low-A as a 23-year-old (2.63 ERA, 32 Ks, 7 BBs, 27 1/3 IP) before getting moved up to High-A and losing the plot. He has a 13.09 ERA and 11 walks in 11 innings so far in High-A, and while a rough start at a level hardly portends doom for a prospect it certainly makes me wonder what’s to like here. And why the Cubs couldn’t have held out for more.
The right-handed Tepera has struck out 50 in 43 1/3 innings this season, walking just 12, and allowing just 22 hits, only three have which have been home runs. Seems like a guy the Jays could have gone after if that was going to be the price!
Of course, this also highlights what I was saying above about teams valuing things their own way that doesn't necessarily line up with what we see out here on the public side. Maybe they just really like Horn.
Also worth considering, which I didn’t mention above, is the fact that 2020 was an incredibly tough year to evaluate players — especially for amateurs and minor leaguers. Maybe Horn’s fifth round selection was later than it would have been in a more normal year and he’s showed more since then that wasn’t known at the time org lists were being put together last winter, and which isn’t showing in his numbers yet at High-A. I don’t know. Seems light to me though.
Gettin’ Schwarby
Kyle Schwarber is something of a poor man's Joey Gallo — a beefy outfielder who mashes from the left side of the plate despite striking out a bit too much — so perhaps it is fitting that today we're hearing that the Blue Jays are one of several teams interested in picking him up from the Nationals.
Schwarber hit poorly enough last year to find himself non-tendered by the Cubs. However, he's bounced back nicely this year, with 25 home runs in 72 games, as he's slashed .253/.340/.570 (138 wRC+). Gallo's .380 on-base it is not. But also, as MLBTR’s piece notes, he was on an absolute tear before going down with a hamstring strain (which he is still on the IL for at the moment). “The former No. 4 overall draft pick had gone an a legitimately historic tear to close out June, homering 16 times in 19 games. In his final 21 games before hitting the injured list, Schwarber posted an almost comically dominant .338/.409/.974 batting line over the life of 88 plate appearances.”
The Jays could find a place for that bat, I’m sure. Unfortunately, unlike Gallo, Schwarber isn’t much of a defensive outfielder, so he wouldn’t check off that box for the Jays. Still, adding a lefty bat beyond Corey Dickerson, Cavan Biggio, and the switch-hitting Breyvic Valera would make some sense. It’s just a little hard to see how you fit him in. The Jays could have moved someone like Lourdes Gurriel Jr. to make way for Gallo, but I don't think you'd do that in this case because Schwarber will be a free agent at the end of the year.
Could the Jays send a prospect along with Randal Grichuk to someone like the Pirates or Marlins (who are looking for a centre fielder — though presumably an actual decent one) in order to make that contract go away and clear up some of their outfield log jam? Seems a long shot to me because of the $18.7 million owed to Grichuk for 2022 and 2023, but maybe an option.
Hey, and how about something even bigger with Miami?
Right-hander Dylan Floro could definitely make some sense for the Jays! (I don’t actually think Grichuk’s deal could be very easily foisted on them though, unfortunately. And I suspect they’d have their doubts about Jonathan Davis too.)
Berrios more likely to be dealt?
Now we’re talking! MLBTR tells us that MLB.com's Mark Feinsand is hearing that the Twins may be more willing to move right-hander José Berríos than they appeared to be earlier in the week. And the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal has chimed on on this subject as well, specifically mentioning the Jays.
The cost would, I’m sure, be quite high, but for a Blue Jays team that needs a starter now, and is set to lose a pair of starters to free agency in the winter (Robbie Ray and Steven Matz), an excellent starter with a year of reasonably cheap control like Berríos is absolutely the kind of guy the Jays should be going after.
Berríos makes $6.1 million this season and will be arbitration eligible for the final time before free agency next year. His next arbitration award will likely be in the $10 million range, which is a very good number for any club acquiring him considering what he brings to the table: dependable quality innings.
Over 184 2/3 innings since the start of 2020, Berríos has produced 3.4 fWAR — the same number Marcus Stroman did for the Blue Jays in 2017. Berríos has a 3.48 ERA this season, with 126 strikeouts and just 32 walks in 121 2/3 innings. He's also made 20 starts so far, after making 12 last season and 32 each in the previous two years. He's 27 years old, a hard thrower (94.1 mph on his fastball this year), who comes at hitters with a fastball/curve/change mix.
He’s certainly not an ace, despite the way he often gets talked about. Frankly, his Statcast rankings give one a bit of pause…
…but there’s not much out there, and he manages to make it work. The Jays could certainly use a guy like this — though they need to not pay for him like he’s an ace, which is the risk you run in a bidding war (and, presumably, why Minnesota seems to be moving toward the idea of trading him).
Berríos generates a little more swing-and-miss than Stroman does, but this is a good comp, and I think the value sent Minnesota’s way ought to be similar. I would definitely think the Jays are more inclined to move position players at this point, though. They’re still a little thin in the pitching ranks — especially in the upper minors.
7:05 PM UPDATE
Oh, and it would appear as though we can rule out the Padres on Berríos.
Max Scherzer goes to San Diego
Well, at least it’s not to the Yankees or Red Sox — as was being reported earlier in the day. As for the thing where the Blue Jays were in the mix? I can’t say I ever took it especially seriously anyway.
Oh and hey, this might not be over yet!
Odds and ends
• The Braves have released outfielder Ender Inciarte after designating him for assignment earlier in the week. He’s a very good defender — a former Gold Glove winner, for whatever that’s worth — and a lefty hitter, but a light hitter who has been especially atrocious at the plate since the start of 2020. Pass.
• The Mets reportedly are listening on corner infielder/outfielder J.D. Davis. He can theoretically play third base, and has a 163 wRC+ this season (in just 89 PA) and a 119 wRC+ for his career, and he won’t be a free agent until after 2024. But as MLBTR’s piece notes, he’s not much of a defender. He also hits from the right side. Intriguing, but pass.
• Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets that the Yankees are now out on Rockies shortstop Trevor Story, now that they’ve added Anthony Rizzo from the Cubs.
• Per Jeff Passan of ESPN, the Rays are continuing their tradition of being both buyers and sellers, linking up with another buyer/seller by sending reliever Diego Castillo to Seattle to replace Kendall Graveman, who was shipped out earlier in the week.
Top image via the New York Yankees/@Yankees
I think your rant is warranted. Gallo would have been a nice pick up. The Hand acquisition is nothing. He's not going to get us to the post-season. Unless they have other things planned, it seems like some sort of peace offering to the players/fans.
I hope I'm proved wrong, but we seem to be unable to close big trades and get beat out by others. Perhaps we ask for too much or value are own prospects too much. Dunno. But holy shit, what the f are they going to do for a playoff worthy starting rotation next year?