Today in MLBTR: Tuesday, January 5th
Sugano links, the relief market, Springer thoughts, Justin Turner, Corey Kluber, and other Jays-related rumblings from rumour mill
Maybe don’t expect this from me every day, but with the site just launched, and the hot stove finally starting to get warm, today seemed like an ideal time for a quick run-down of the latest Jays-related rumblings from over at the ever invaluable MLB Trade Rumors.
Sugano links
As I noted in yesterday’s off-season catch-up, reports suggest that Yomiuri Giants ace Tomoyuki Sugano is expected to sign today — either with an MLB club, or with the Giants, who Jon Heyman reports have a four-year offer in for him, which includes opt-outs after each of the first three years of the deal. If the Jays end up landing Sugano — a possibility given their need for pitching and the fact that their one of a handful of teams noted as strong suitors — I’ll definitely be writing about it later on today. But if you want a head start on dreaming about the best pitcher in Japan possibly coming to the Jays, here are a few pieces to check out, in addition to the CBS Sports primer I mentioned yesterday:
Ted Baarda of Sports Info Solutions gives a thorough scouting report of Sugano and comes up with a rather interesting comp for him: Johnny Cueto. (Hopefully he means the healthy version!)
Back in October, Joel Sherman of the New York Post took a look at Sugano and spoke with a pair of MLB scouts who viewed him as a strong number three starter — perhaps the ideal guy to slot in between Hyun Jin Ryu and Nate Pearson.
Also in December, Eno Sarris of the Athletic looked at several of the best international veterans who might make the jump this winter, saving Sugano’s entry for last, calling him the pick of the crop, and pointing out how well his NPB numbers compare to those of Masahiro Tanaka, Kenta Maeda, and Yusei Kikuchi. (He’s a little behind Yu Darvish though.)
At Baseball America, Jason Coskrey leads off list of potential NPB players to make the jump to North America this winter with Sugano, highlighting an overhauled delivery that helped him return to form in 2020 after an injury-plagued 2019.
The great NPB blogger Jim Allen takes an in-depth look at Sugano as well, also highlighting his odd new delivery, as well as his evolution into a flyball pitcher. In another post, Allen gives us reason to wonder if maybe it will be another year before we see Sugano in North America. He has “expressed concern about playing in the States due to the greater risk of coronavirus infection,” Allen writes.
Tom Mussa of Prospects Live goes into how Shun Yamaguchi sneakily turned the Giants into a team that posts its players (something they had generally not done before), and also gives some examples of Sugano’s killer slider.
David Adler of MLB.com answers key questions about Sugano, including ones about his pitch mix, stats, and where he might fit in a big league rotation.
Steve Sypa of Amazin’ Avenue goes into Sugano’s background and the story of his NPB career.
Lastly, at Beyond the Box Score, Bill Thompson is ready to believe in Sugano’s ace potential. “He is first and foremost, a control machine,” he writes. “He doesn’t walk all that many and he has mastered tunneling and making his various pitches look as similar as possible. Sugano is an old-school pitcher in that he understands how to work over hitters, not just in terms of their weak areas but also in his ability to create new weak areas on the fly based on what he sees happening pitch-by-pitch.”
Looking for relief
Moving on, the other fresh rumour I wrote about in yesterday’s piece was the one about Liam Hendriks visiting the Jays’ complex in Dunedin. The Jays, of course, are far from the only team interested, as MLBTR’s Anthony Franco points out. He lists the Mets, Dodgers, White Sox, and Astros as all having interest in Hendriks, who he adds is looking for a four-year deal (a suggestion first reported by ESPN's Jeff Passan back in mid-December).
Four years is a lot for any reliever, let alone one that turns 32 next month, but Hendriks has been very durable over his career, and has only gotten better with age.
Another relief possibility still out there is former Cleveland closer Brad Hand. On Monday, MLBTR passed along a Jon Heyman report that the Mets are interested in him and “might have claimed Hand when he was on waivers had it been their call then.”
Hand was placed on waivers on October 29 and formal league approval of the Mets sale from the Wilpons to new owner Steve Cohen didn’t happen until the next day, so the front office was certainly in a transition period at the time. What on earth is every other club’s excuse? Especially the Blue Jays, who paid Ken Giles $9.6 million in 2020 and could have easily repurposed that chunk of payroll for Hand’s $10 million one-year commitment.
Springing on Springer?
Here’s one that has yet to make MLBTR: On Monday evening, Jim Duquette of SNY reported that the Jays had made an “aggressive” offer to George Springer, albeit one that was “well under” $150 million — the price that is, apparently, Springer’s goal.
The thing about high end free agent deals is that whichever team gets the guy is going to have to make him an offer that nobody else is willing to make. The Jays had to go to five years to get Russell Martin in the 2014-15 off-season, and they had to go to four years to get Hyun Jin Ryu last winter. The back-end of Martin’s deal got ugly, not that it mattered much by then, and there’s a strong likelihood that Ryu’s will too. If you actually want to get the player, you have to accept that there is going to be some “bad money” in the deal at the end.
I understand why some fans lean into the tendency to count ownership’s pennies — there is a budget and you don’t want to see the team make a mistake ownership won’t allow them to spend their way out of — but I no longer think we should get as fine about it as we used to. At least not when we’re talking about top talent. Springer has had a great career so far and deserves to get paid. Even though he’s already 31, if we’re choosing between him not playing for the Blue Jays and the Jays’ “overpaying” by what they see as $20 or $30 million just to get him, the answer for me is easy. (At least until I start considering whether it’s better to pay Springer $25 million over six years or Lindor $30 or $35 million over eight, because asking them to do both is a lot.)
Obviously these are negotiations and you don’t want to be out there bidding against yourself. I’m not saying the Jays should go off the deep end. I’m simply saying, what is the point of spending years building a ton of payroll flexibility if it’s not allowing you to go a little beyond your comfort zone in order to ensure you get the best players possible when the opportunity arises? And with teams like the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, and Cubs seemingly out of the elite free agent market this winter, opportunity has definitely arisen.
Should the Jays be turning to Turner?
Speaking of the Dodgers, we haven’t heard much linking the Jays to free agent third baseman Justin Turner — everybody’s favourite attempted World Series superspreader! — but there would seem to be a fit there. He wouldn’t exactly help the club very much in terms of run prevention, but he’s been a competent enough third baseman in L.A. the last several seasons, and at the plate he’s offers just about as much offensive punch as Springer does.
The Jays could make that work, I think.
The problem is that Turner’s contract demands seem to be even more out of step with the market than Springer’s. A “Free Agent Notes” piece from Monday night at MLBTR points us to a report from Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times, who writes that Turner is seeking a four-year contract, though the Dodgers are only willing to go to two.
Go get paid, Justin! But, um, a four year guarantee to a guy who is already 36 and whose defensive numbers are already slipping doesn’t sound like something most MLB teams would do in the year 2021. That he can even ask speaks to his prowess at the plate, where his wRC+ over the past three seasons combined has been a robust 140 (Springer’s, for the record, has been 146). Turner could be a viable DH somewhere at he end of his next deal, but unfortunately for the Jays, it sure feels like they’ve got a guy for that spot already. Two even, if you believe in what we saw from Rowdy Tellez in 2020. (WHICH WE DO.)
And if the Dodgers are willing to go to two years for Turner, it stands to reason that the Jays would have to go to three. I’d have no problem with them doing that if the fit made just a little bit more sense (and if Turner was a little more durable), and two years would be just fine with me if the Dodgers turn elsewhere to replace Turner at third base. But I’m not nearly as willing to move heaven and earth and overpay by whatever astronomical sums I said above for Turner as I am for Springer, whose defence would be a real difference-maker.
Find me into Klub
Also mentioned in the Free Agent Notes piece linked above is a report from Jon Morosi that free agent Corey Kluber will hold a showcase for teams interested in his services on January 13.
There's nothing out there about the Jays being in on this -- and perhaps they'll have filled their rotation with Sugano by then, and thus won't feel the need to roll the dice on the oft-injured former Cy Young winner -- but it's worth remembering that we learned this week that the Jays were chasing Kluber just last winter. As I noted in yesterday's off-season catch-up, Scott Mitchell of TSN mentioned in a predictions piece recently that the Jays had tried for Kluber but balked when Cleveland tried to pry away young catcher Alejandro Kirk. (Kluber was instead moved to Texas for Delino DeShields and Emmanuel Clase, where he pitched just a single inning in yet another injury-plagued season. So, good move on that one, Jays.)
Of course, as MLBTR’s Conner Byrne rightly asserts in a different Free Agent Notes piece from here on Tuesday afternoon, “given the potential upside of adding a former Cy Young Award winner if Kluber can stay healthy, the veteran righty makes sense for practically every team in baseball.”
Still, with the past interest the Jays have shown — coming even after Kluber missed almost all of the 2019 season — and a rotation spot begging to be taken away from Tanner Roark, maybe there’s something there. The fact that Mark Shapiro was the GM in Cleveland when Kluber was acquired from the Padres, and the president of the club as he blossomed into one of the best pitchers in the game, can’t hurt either.
Old friend(?) alert
Lastly, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk brings us a brief update on former Jays pitcher Felix Doubront, who has signed a deal with the Uni-President Lions of the CPBL in Taiwan. Doubront, you may remember, made four starts and one relief appearance, totaling 22 2/3 innings, for one of the goddamn greatest baseball teams we’ve ever seen: the 2015 Toronto Blue Jays.
That fact always amazes me when I’m reminded of it, but it shouldn’t. The first half of that season was just so incredibly forgettable. Doubront, Steve Tolleson, Colt Hynes, former Brooklyn softballer Bo Schultz, Todd Redmond, Scott Copeland, the last gasp of Jeff Francis’s big league career, Phil Coke pitching for the Jays! LOL. Who could forget? Me, that’s who. And presumably a lot of you, too.
Anyway, godspeed to Doubront on his new adventure. If only they’d held the World Series that year he might have gotten a second ring.
I also remember remember Shultz and even Ryan Tepera being kinda good first half of ;15, although as relief pitchers do, they tended to give up some gut wrenching home runs. I remember the Jays were in Seattle about a week before the Tulo trade, and they lost of 2 of 3. Shultz gave up a go ahead bomb in the 8th on the Friday night, and the the Mariners walked off Tepera in extras after the Jays had gone ahead in the previous half inning.
The key thing you mentioned in the Springer portion thing was "they don't want to be bidding against themselves." I think that's where they're at right now, considering by all accounts, the Mets are the only other team serious about him. What else might be hurting the Jays here (and its been downplayed elsewhere, but I think it is huge factor) is where the fuck the team is playing this year due to the pandemic? If you're Springer, and you know the Jays really really want you, and are willing to overpay, why would you sign before you have some sort of clarity regarding this? You'd also want to give the Mets every opportunity to make a competitive offer since they know where they're playing. Just a thought.
As for Hendriks, I read somewhere his 2019 and 2020 were like 2002 Eric Gagne. I already said this in the other post, but please spend the fuck out of Rogers money.
Jeff Francis was on the 2015 team??