Monday rumours, links, and things: January 18
On George Springer, the uncertainty roadblock, promises made (or not), top prospects, Joe Musgrove being dealt to the Padres, Masahiro Tanaka, Alex Colomé, and more!
The hot stove is getting hotter! Jays fans still are waiting for a big, satisfying meal, and their options for one continue to dwindle. But things do seem like they are at least finally starting to happen. And with less than a month to go before pitchers and catchers report, a whole lot could happen very quickly.
Yes, maybe even for the Jays.
No, really!
So let’s take a look at all that has taken place here on a busy Monday in this foul year of our lord, two-thousand twenty-one.
But first! In case you missed my little bit of housekeeping yesterday, I’ve started up a Facebook page for the site. As I’ve said every time I’ve mentioned this, I don’t really use Facebook myself, as I’m doomed to walk the earth shackled to Twitter, and that’s about all the social media I can handle. But I will be posting everything I do on there just as soon as it goes up. So, if you’d like to see my work in your feed, or want to share it with your friends, go give it a like.
Now on to the rumours, links, and things!
Springer soon? Let’s hope so
Our long national nightmare may soon be over. According to a tweet from Jon Morosi on Monday afternoon, he’s hearing from multiple industry sources that George Springer’s free agent decision could be made as soon as this week. He adds that, as has been the case for two months, the Blue Jays and the Mets continue to be considered the frontrunners.
The Springer saga has been a long and frustrating one for Jays fans, not only because of the lack of clarity and the other opportunities the Jays have missed on while keeping their focus on the former Astros centre fielder, but because it’s meant having to deal with consistent doses of negativity from within the fan base. Some of that is understandable, and much of it is MLB’s doing because of the way the league’s annual free agent signing period has for teams become more and more an exercise in grinding players to dust in an attempt to pay them as little as possible. There’s something else at work, though, too, and it’s the fact that it is much easier to be negative and act pleasantly surprised if proven wrong than it is to remain positive and then, if wrong, face scrutiny for not taking the lazier route in the first place.
I don’t know if the Jays will be able to get Springer’s name on a contract — it’s entirely possible they won’t — but neither does anyone else at this point. I’ve seen fans insist that the fact that Springer hasn’t taken the Jays’ money yet means he never will — an obviously silly notion that requires us to believe that the Jays have already made him their best offer, or that his objection is to the team and not the dollar amount that’s on the table. I’ve seen fans suggest that the Jays should just make their best offer then move on, which is another way to say, “They should just bid against themselves because I’ve grown impatient with all this.” I’ve seen fans certain that the fact that the Jays might not play in Canada this year is going to be as much of a deterrent to free agents as the fact that they do play in Canada is supposedly a factor every other year.
Those could absolutely be concerns that disadvantage the Jays, and it’s very possible that we’ll hear sometime this week that Springer took less money to go elsewhere. But if that happens, how much less will be an important question.
In 2014, Springer and his agent were considering pursuing a grievance against the Astros for service time manipulation. It’s unclear how much Springer himself was driving that process, but one would have to think he’d have had some level of say about it. And if so, maybe that tells us something about how important he thinks it is to get paid as much as he’s worth, and about ensuring precedents are followed and set to ensure the next guy who comes along extracts even more from ownership.
Fealty to his union brothers can be a factor that gives the Jays an advantage here, provided they actually bid significantly — not just nominally — higher than the the next team. But that doesn’t prey on our fears and insecurities, and doesn’t provoke the same kind of emotional response, so I guess we tend not to talk about it.
Let’s maybe not lose sight of that fact that it’s those fears and insecurities that drive these conversations — fairly, because of the Jays’ history of failing to sign big ticket free agents, yet unfairly, because of the fact that they’ve rarely been actually serious about adding that kind of talent anyway — and not anything concrete that anybody supposedly knows about what George Springer is thinking or which team is ultimately going to make the bid that lands him.
All this uncertainty
As I acknowledged above, there are factors out of the Blue Jays’ control that could absolutely hurt them with free agents, and one of them absolutely is the fact that we’re less than a month from camps opening and we still have no idea where the team will be playing this season.
Jon Heyman tweeted as much on Monday morning.
A few thoughts on this:
One, I really do think “trying hard” is relative in these situations. If they’re offering two years guaranteed to guys who are only getting one year offers elsewhere, that’s trying pretty hard. If guys have those kind of objections and the Jays are only offering them an extra 10% at the same term, are they really trying that hard? Maybe that’s wrong and players are more dead set against the Jays than I want to believe, but we see over and over and over in free agency that money talks. I don’t know why this would be so different.
Two, if we are talking about guys on one-year deals, maybe that’s more a problem. Especially, as Joshua Howsam has been quick to point out on Twitter (as has Brendon Kuhn), if the play ers have kids. If the Jays do come back to Canada at some point in 2021 on some kind of an exception to border restrictions, that could make it difficult for players’ families to easily join them due to quarantine rules for border crossers. I’m not sure if being on the American side of the border would be as big a deal.
Three, I especially think that being on the American side of the border might not be as big a deal if the Jays end up — as I would expect — staying in Dunedin. Heyman mentions Buffalo in his tweet, but I’d imagine that there’s going to be a Triple A season, and that the Bisons will be playing at Sahlen Field. Last spring, Florida was such a COVID hotspot that it didn’t seem sensible to keep the Jays in Dunedin. Now, relatively, it doesn’t seem quite so bad. Plus, I would imagine — though I don’t know — that part of the reluctance to choose Dunedin may have also had to do with the fact that the club’s new player development complex there (or, specifically, about six kilometres from TD Ballpark) was not yet ready to go last spring, as you can see in this video tour of the still-under-construction facility from last February.
Does that make viable this year? We’re still talking about a ballpark that is definitely not a major league calibre facility (playing games at the complex might even be a better scenario, if they can make one of the fields work for TV), and the lack of big league amenities was definitely one of the reasons the Jays seemed to try so hard to avoid Buffalo last summer. Mid-summer weather in Florida is also an issue. Both the Marlins and the nearby Rays play in stadiums with roofs for a reason. Could the Jays even look at moving some games to the Trop when the Rays are out of town?
None these possibilities are ideal, and I’m sure it would give pause to a free agent — especially one who is only looking at a one-year deal. But it’s worth remembering that the Jays clearly did right by their big leaguers last season, as much as they possibly could. And it certainly didn’t deter Robbie Ray from wanting to return — and it has felt over the course of the winter as though Taijuan Walker probably feels the same.
Again, money talks, and the Jays are one of the few teams out there right now who are acting like they have some to spend. Having an up-and-coming team with a real chance to play in October doesn’t hurt, either.
Promises, promises
Let’s have a look at five quotes from earlier in the off-season, shall we?
Number one, from Ross Atkins on October 2nd. (Emphasis mine.)
“I think we are in a position where we could add to this team with talent that is condensed in one player and a super high impact. We got to the point last year where we felt like the team was competitive enough to move towards winning, and that was a big part of that decision. We’re going to continue to think about how we can build upon this group, and hopefully it’s both complementary as well as making as making a really high impact.”
Number two, from Mark Shapiro on October 21st.
“Every indication has been very strongly that they (Rogers) expect us to continue to pursue where we need to add to our core, continue to pursue players this offseason. That takes two parties, not just us, but the players we’re pursuing. But I think the resources are going to be there if we think the right deals are there and we make those recommendations. The resources are going to be there for us to add in a meaningful way and we will conduct this offseason much like last offseason.”
Number three, also from Shapiro on October 21st.
“I think we’ve got a lot of positive things to sell, but we’re going to get rejected, just like we’re going to reject some players. That’s just part of the process. We’re going to look for that alignment of the player who’s the right fit, both from a talent and makeup and character and team perspective, and I’m confident we’ll find those players.”
Number four is from Atkins again, this time on December 10th.
“It would be great if we could acquire a player of Bo Bichette’s calibre, or Cavan Biggio’s calibre, or Vlad Guerrero’s calibre — that type of impact in one player. There are rare opportunities to do it. This is one of them and we want to see if there is a way for it to line up for the Toronto Blue Jays and that particular player. But if it doesn’t happen then there will be plenty of avenues to make our team significantly better.”
And number five, from Shapiro on December 11th.
“The only reaction I’ve got (to being linked to so many top free agents) is that to place all of the emphasis on a successful offseason on a few names is probably not the right way to focus on it. We need to get better, and I’m 100 percent confident we will get better. ... That could come in the form of four very good players. It can come in the form of two elite players. But we’re going to get better.”
After reading all those quotes, I guess I really just have one question. How exactly have so many fans managed to get it in their heads that the team has essentially promised to land big name, top-of-the-market talent this winter?
Prospecting
OK, on to some happier things. Namely, the fact that the Blue Jays have developed an impressively strong farm system — which is extra impressive because of the recent graduations of strong prospects in Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Cavan Biggio, and Danny Jansen.
You’ll note that Nate Pearson’s name isn’t listed among that group, and that’s because his lack of big league action last year has allowed him to maintain his prospect eligibility according to most of the major scouting sites. One of those, Baseball America, released its list of the top 100 prospects in the game here on Monday, and Pearson does indeed (again) have a prominent place on it.
The Jays’ big number two starter ranks number 14 on this year’s BA list, down somewhat from his number five ranking a year ago, which is probably fair considering he did little to quell the concerns about his ability to stay on the field during the 2020 season. His control, though likely affected by the elbow issue he tried to pitch through last summer, also wasn’t where it needed to be for him to continue to hang around in the top 10. He’s certainly not far off though, and is still absolutely considered one of the top young talents in the game.
Elsewhere, the Jays’ prospects mostly took small steps back on this list, but that needs to be taken with a grain of salt. There just wasn’t a lot of information produced in 2020 to base these assessments on, and the Jays genuinely remain in great shape, with six prospects among the top 100. Only the Padres had more, with seven. (The Marlins also had six.)
Austin Martin remains a top 20 prospect. Jordan Groshans, though few have seen him play over the last two years, is still in the top 35. Simeon Woods Richardson looks nice at number 69, while Alejandro Kirk jumps from 98 to number 70, and Orelvis Martinez arrives on the list just ahead of Kirk’s old mark, coming in at number 96.
BA also has also updated their Blue Jays top 10. Rounding out that group are Alek Manoah, Gabriel Moreno, Adam Kloffenstein, and Miguel Hiraldo.
Links and whatnot!
It wouldn’t be a day that ends in “y” if there wasn’t a rumour out there linking the Blue Jays to some available free agent. And — aha! — indeed we do have one, as Jon Morosi tweeted on Monday afternoon that the Jays are among the teams with interest in 32-year-old reliever Alex Colomé. Colomé is a fastball-cutter guy — or, much more accurately, a cutter-fastball guy. In 2020 he threw his cutter 71.6% of the time, which marked a career high for a pitch that used to be one of five that he threw with regularity. This new Colomé traded strikeouts for ground balls and a lack of home runs in 2020, registering a career high 52.4% ground ball rate while allowing zero dongs over 22 1/3 innings. That helped keep his ERA at a miniscule 0.81 for the season, as did an unsustainable strand rate of 86.4%. Still, he did a great job keeping batters from squaring up his pitches in 2020 and has been a fine reliever otherwise the past several years. Would be a fine pick-up at the right price.
Jon Heyman tweeted on Monday morning that there doesn’t seem to be much likelihood of a reunion between the Yankees and Masahiro Tanaka after the Yankees signed Corey Kluber over the weekend. He adds that Tanaka may end up heading back to Japan because there are bigger deals available for him there than there are here in North America. That seems odd, as Tanaka only turned 32 in November and has been a really solid pitcher for the Yankees over the last several years. There are concerns over the health of his arm, to be sure, but those have been around for years. And while it’s maybe unnerving that the Yankees, who know him best, decided to pass, you have to think that he could help a team like the Blue Jays. Seems silly, with the financial muscle available to teams here, that he’d end up back in Japan.
Speaking of the Yankees and starting pitching, Joel Sherman of the New York Post looks at the Sunday’s false rumour about Luis Castillo being on his way to the Bronx, then lists five starters he thinks could be nabbed in trade (though aren’t necessarily on the block). Included among them are Kyle Hendricks of the Cubs, German Marquez of the Rockies, and a very interesting option in Pablo López of the Marlins. As Sherman notes, Miami could use offence, and I’m sure a potential Cuban star like Lourdes Gurriel Jr. would be of interest there.
And there’s more on the starting pitching front, as on Monday evening the very fun San Diego Padres did yet another very fun thing, acquiring another strong starter. This time it’s former Blue Jay, and now former Pirate, Joe Musgrove. That makes four very impressive starters with multiple years of control left that the Padres have added since mid-summer through trade: Musgrove, Mike Clevinger, Blake Snell, and Yu Darvish. And though I didn’t ever really think the Jays were going to go big after Musgrove — there may have been a shot given that former Jays exec Ben Cherington is now running the show in Pittsburgh, but it always seemed more likely that Toronto would use money rather than prospects — that means yet another option is now off the board. Hopefully Springer really does make his decision this week, because the Jays really need to pivot their focus to starting pitching soon.
The Padres did indeed give up a number of prospects for Musgrove and his relatively cheap two years of control:
Cool of the Jays to be out here supporting women’s hockey — specifically, Toronto’s new NWHL expansion team, the Toronto Six.
Jays fans may have missed the club’s annual Winter Fest this year, but club is going to make up for it as best they can, announcing on Monday that they’ll be holding a virtual Winter Week beginning February 1.
Laura Armstrong of the Toronto Star takes a look at some of the challenges that the Jays face in getting players to play in Canada and, naturally, finds manager Charlie Montoyo upbeat about the ability of the team to make sure players are comfortable and that the border isn’t an issue.
Over at Sportsnet, Nick Ashbourne examines the idea of the Jays circling back to Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant in the event that they miss out on some of their bigger targets — like George Springer.
Lastly, this, I think, is worth remembering:
Top image: "George Springer" by IDSportsPhoto is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0