Weekend up!: The big apple of our eyes
On Bassitt, Berríos, Belt, Vlad, viruses, Manoah, Orelvis, Good Week/Bad Week, the Astros series, and more!
The Blue Jays continued their good run of form when playing teams from outside of the AL East over the weekend, as their sojourn to Queens resulted in a three-game sweep of the New York Mets and their astronomical payroll.
Each game was uncomfortable in its own way — the first two due to the Jays’ ongoing offensive woes, the second because a relatively safe lead was erased late — but ultimately the team was able to do enough to send themselves home in an upbeat mood with a tough, four-game home series against the Astros upcoming.
At 7-3, they've been the best AL East club over the last 10 games, and though that success hasn't seen them improve in the standings by very much, it's something. It's a start. And it provides a platform to build from over a difficult two weeks ahead (HOU (H)(4), MIN (H), BAL (A), TEX (A)), before the schedule finally lets up a little heading into the All-Star break (MIA (A), OAK (H), SFG (H), BOS (H), CHW (A), DET (A)).
How did the weekend help get them there? Let's talk about it!
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Up: Friday: Blue Jays 3 - Mets 0
Perhaps Chris Bassitt’s wife should go into labour every time he pitches. I sure Mrs. Bassitt wouldn’t be very fond of such a scheme, nor am I 100% sure if it’s even biologically possible (will Google it later), but there’s no denying that with the baby on its way, a quick flight back to Toronto awaiting him, and a long rain delay making the situation even trickier, Bassitt was masterful. (He also made it home “with plenty of time to spare.”)
In outduelling three-time Cy Young winner, and future Hall-of-Famer, Justin Verlander, Bassitt pitched 7 2/3 shutout innings, allowing just three hits and no walks, while striking out eight. Take away his brutal season-opener in St. Louis and he'd have a 2.42 ERA — good for 8th among qualified starters since then. Even with that one included he's at 3.41, which is almost exactly where he finished last year (3.42). And though his FIP is high at 4.80, it drops to 4.14 if we remove that first start — in which he surrendered four home runs in fewer than four innings — bringing him closer to previous years as well.
Bassitt's ERA has outperformed his FIP every year since 2018, which makes sense given the way he's able to keep hitters off balance with his absurdly deep arsenal. His Statcast rankings don’t exactly scream elite contact suppression at the moment, especially when you consider that last year his percentiles for exit velo (95th) and hard hit rate (87th) were significantly better than even the ones for this year we see below.
But it’s really just the St. Louis start, and a couple of blips in his previous two, that appear to be the outliers dragging him down. The Mets’ xWOBA against him was his lowest of the year, for example, and the trend line there seems mostly positive.
He maybe never looked quite as off track as his starts in Tampa (six runs (two earned)) and Minnesota (seven runs) suggested, but I think it's safe to say he got back on track in this one. And it was a good thing, too! Because between George Springer's leadoff home run and Daulton Varsho's two-run blast in the ninth, the game rested on a knife's edge.
And, for a moment in the bottom of the seventh, on the glove skills and instincts of the man who's offence was all that the Jays would need in this one.
Up: Saturday: Blue Jays 2 - Mets 1
The Blue Jays have a .189 BABIP with the bases loaded this season. That's hard to do! Though apparently not too hard, as there are three teams who are doing worse at the moment — a fact that speaks to what we all know about how volatile small splits are. We're talking about 50-odd plate appearances in these situations on average.
I don't bring this up to suggest that it isn't extremely frustrating to watch the team struggle when runners ought to be cahsed — as they did, again, in the first inning on Saturday, with Mets starter Tyler Megill absolutely begging to get shelled — but because it's a kind of run that's too absurd to believe it can continue.
The Jays struggles with runners in scoring position, which were also highlighted in this one (thanks to a 2-for-13 performance), are certainly more real. Their 93 wRC+ with RISP has come about over the course of 621 PA. They rank 23rd by wRC+ with RISP, despite being the fifth best offence in baseball by wRC+ overall (110). The 17 point gulf between those numbers is the fourth largest in baseball.
Again, I don't bring this up to suggest it isn't frustrating, or it doesn't need to change in a hurry. I also certainly wouldn't say that this is purely a matter of luck that's completely uncontrollable. But it is just one of those things that sometimes just happens — and doesn't even just happen to the Jays, who seem to get fans pulling their hair out every season over RISP stuff, despite producing a 113 wRC+ in the split in 2021, and 119 mark last year.
The teams with bigger gaps between their overall offensive output and how they've fared with RISP this season? Atlanta (-26), San Diego (-22), and Philadelphia (-20). Very good offensive teams that no one should believe will go on like this for long.
No one should believe that about the Jays, either! But I get that it's very hard not to when you watch the kind of failure they've had play out over and over before your eyes.
Anyway! The Jays did, at least, manage two hits with RISP: One off the bat of Alejandro Kirk that ate up the struggling Francisco Lindor and allowed Brandon Belt to score and tie the ballgame with two outs in the top of the sixth, and another, of course, with two outs in the top of the ninth, when Vladimir Guerrero Jr. — after getting a few moments to breathe and compose himself following a one of the worst called strikes I’ve ever seen on the 0-0 pitch, because his manager, John Schneider, got himself tossed from the game for arguing with the umpire — reached down and smacked a double just inside third base to score George Springer as the winning run. (And hopefully break out of the mini-slump he’s been in.)
(Video via the Toronto Blue Jays/@BlueJays)
Speaking of things fans have been worried about more than they probably should, Vlad's poor play in the back half of May has understandably generated a lot of chatter, much of which I thought missed the mark.
Let’s start here, with some numbers I used in a tweet on Sunday (which I’ve since updated).
Vlad wRC+ by week
Mar 27-Apr 2: 152
Apr 3-Apr 9: 243
Apr 10-Apr 16: 107
Apr 17-Apr23: 149
Apr 24-Apr 30: 71
May 1-May7: 200
May 8-May 14: 145
May 15-May 21: -6*
May 22-May 28: 64
May 29-Jun 4: 157*tweaked his knee on the 16th
So, to put it more simply, outside of the week in which he hurt his knee, and the week after that, he’s had one bad week, one where he was merely above average, and the rest of the year so far he’s been elite.
It’s fair to worry, and it’s fair to wonder if he’ll ever reach the heights as a hitter that his minor league career and 2021 seemed to promise, but if we’re going to do that I think its important to, you know, try to appreciate context like this.
Also, José Berríos pitched really well again in this one, and continues to put up extremely Berríos-like numbers this season, so maybe I’ve buried the lede here.
The relievers — Trevor Richards (who I always believed in *COUGH*), Big Nate, and Erik Swanson — also were excellent in this one. Would you believe that the Jays have a top-10 bullpen ERA and rank third by K%? Because it's true!
Up: Sunday: Blue Jays 6 - Mets 4
Yusei Kikuchi has generally been a good story for the Jays this season, though starting from the middle of May, like many of his teammates, things started to go sideways for him. Even with a nice outing on Sunday that hopefully will help to right the ship, his ERA over his last five starts sits at 6.08, to go along with a 7.47 FIP, and an absolutely brutal 3.4 HR/9.
Home runs have been a problem for him in the past, but never quite like this. Fortunately for the Jays on Sunday, he did the thing he needs to do to mitigate the damage of those inevitable long balls: he avoided issuing walks. Tommy Pham homered twice off him in this one, but both were merely solo shots.
Meanwhile, Vlad hit a home run off an actual pitcher for the first time in, like, a month, the team put up four runs (three earned) on Kodai Senga — who came in on a high after throwing seven shutout innings with nine strikeouts in his previous start — and chased him after just 2 2/3 innings. Plus, Brandon Belt continued the incredible turnaround to his season by… um… belting a two-run homer in the top of the seventh to put the Jays back on top (after the two Pham blasts, and a less-than-big performance from Nate Pearson in his second straight day of work, had pissed away what was once a four-run lead).
Belt otherwise did not have a remarkable day, statistically. Overall his line says 1-for-5 with four strikeouts, but he should have had at least one walk.
Many fans who watched the Sportsnet telecast, or were checking out MLB.com’s Gameday feature, felt that he deserved two, though the more accurate Statcast zone disagrees.
Belt had an exchange with the umpire following the second, more egregious, call, and by all rights could have gotten himself tossed, but showed great restraint, stayed in the game, and ended up the hero.
I’m not sure if his teammates’ M-V-P chants following the home run had anything to do with that restraint — it could simply be because he’s been really good lately! — but it wouldn’t shock me.
(Clip via Sportsnet)
Good week/Bad week
It’s been a good week for…
• Brandon Belt: We have to stick with Belt here, as he's been the Jays' best hitter by wRC+ this week, putting up a 246 mark over 17 plate appearances. He still strikeout out a lot — dubiously or not — but he walked five times in 17 PA while slashing an absurd .333/.529/.750. He's now up to a 126 wRC+ for the season, and looking exactly like the kind of dangerous left-handed bat the Jays were hoping to get when they signed him.
• It's been an up-and-down season for a number of Jays hitters so far, and for the first time in a while it seemed like several were all up at the same time. I've already mentioned Belt and Vladdy (157 wRC+), but there were also been good performances this week from Whit Merrifield (175), Matt Chapman (136), Cavan Biggio (134), Alejandro Kirk (128), and Daulton Varsho (120). Keep it going, boys.
• On the pitching side, it's been a good week for most, but even though I mentioned him above already, I feel like I have to single out Trevor Richards again. He's only pitched twice, facing just 11 batters, but gave up only two hits while striking out five. Richards' 14.0 K/9 rate now ranks seventh out of 191 relievers, and — importantly — he's one of the few guys able to go multiple innings in the Jays bullpen right now. It's not been perfect, but we certainly aren't talking about DFA'ing him any more, are we? Turns out ditching the curve and throwing his best pitch a ton was a good idea!
It’s been a bad week for…
• Bo Bichette has been a bit anonymous over the last seven days (66 wRC+), but I think he’s allowed to have one of those after the way he’s been hitting all year.
• Tim Mayza had a blow-up against the Brewers back on Wednesday. Meh. It happens. His ERA (1.80) and FIP (1.88) remain microscopic even with the two runs in 2/3 of an inning.
• And then, of course, there’s Alek Manoah, who will try once again to get himself right when he faces the Astros at Rogers Centre on Monday night.
Looking ahead
• Sticking with Manoah, Yahoo's Ethan Diamandas looks at the three options in front of the Jays if they want to do something more drastic with their struggling "ace" than simply allowing him to try to figure it out in the big leagues: skip him a start, move to a six-man rotation, or send him to Triple-A. None of them seems great! This would be a great time for Manoah to pitch well, huh?
• Another reason for Manoah to pitch well is the fact that a couple of their trustiest relievers, Nate Pearson and Erik Swanson, likely won’t be available for this one. Of course, Bowden Francis is currently on the same schedule as Manoah, and might be an option for a promotion and a 40-man spot. Which reliever could they possibly DFA and never allow to pitch for the club again, though? Hmm…
• Thing is, Francis may not stay lined up with Manoah for long. Josh Howsam points out a rather astute move the Jays could — and should — make in the near future: “Assuming Manoah isn't going to the minors, I wonder if the Jays will use the off day on Monday the 12th to flip Gausman and Manoah in the rotation. That would at least stop the constant back-to-back heavy burdens on the ‘pen from Kikuchi and Manoah.”
• I’ve seen a few people out there wondering whether the issue with Manoah so far might simply be the fact that he’s struggling to bounce back from last year’s workload. He did go from 129 2/3 innings in 2021 (between the majors and minors) to 196 2/3 in 2022 — a pretty big jump! So… maybe?
• Speaking of fatigue, a potential reason for some of the Jays’ struggles that hasn’t been commented on a ton, even as it has unfolded before our eyes, is the viral illness that’s been circulating the Jays’ clubhouse. SI’s Mitch Bannon broke down how the affliction has picked off Jays players one or two at a time over the course of the season. Nobody likes excuse-making but this, too, is important context to be considered when assessing their play of late.
• On the subject of this illness, a doctor who specializes in infectious disease tells me:
Since about the beginning of May we have seen this interesting gastrointestinal virus percolating through the community. Looks to be contagious, but in a slow fashion, where generally in a family, it will hit one person after the other. Usually, it’s quite mild with people mainly feeling anorexic (not hungry) with low-grade nausea without vomiting and significant fatigue. Lasts for a day or two and then a couple of days go by when the next person in the family gets it.
The occasional person will get a couple of episodes of vomiting, and some people get diarrhea, but for the most part, it’s gone in 24 hours For most people who don’t have vomiting/diarrhea you feel like crap and tired, but you can still go to work because you don’t realize anything is wrong. For a high-level athlete, though the fatigue is significant enough to significantly affect performance.
• Returning to the Astros series, the Jays will be getting a bit of a different look this week than they had when they visited Houston in April. Two starters from that series, Luis Garcia and José Urquidy, are currently on the shelf. The Jays will face, in order, Brandon Bielak (3.19 ERA), Hunter Brown (3.61), Ronel Blanco (4.15), and Framber Valdez (2.16). Hmm. Seems like the Astros have some pitching depth. Who knew?
• Also on the Astros injury front, Jose Altuve is currently day-to-day with an oblique issue, and the club called up depth infielder Grae Kessinger to join them in Toronto — perhaps signalling that we may not see much of the star second baseman, at least at the start of the series.
• Looking farther ahead, the Jays made an interesting little signing over the weekend, picking up reliever (and great name!) Al Pesto. A 26-year-old who has never been in affiliated ball, Pesto pitched for Billings in the Pioneer League last year, and apparently has been making some impressive velocity improvements since his college days, with his fastball now pushing up toward triple digits. Sure! Why not? A fun story!
• Lastly, and looking even farther ahead still, is Orelvis Martinez putting himself back on the elite prospect map? In a word: maybe! Keegan Matheson checked in on a number of Jays prospects in a recent piece for MLB.com, including Martinez.
Orelvis had an awful April, clubbing three home runs, but managing just two other hits while producing a wRC+ of just 5. By May 9th he'd managed to raise that only to 12. There were signs of better things to come, however. His BABIP was an absurdly low .055, and his walk rate (8.9%) and strikeout rate (24.4%) both looked reasonable enough. Lo and behold, since then he's taken off.
From April 10th through the weekend, over 93 PA, Martinez is 23-for-77 (.299) with 11 homers, 15 walks, and just 18 strikeouts. Rate-wise that's 16.1% for walks and just 19.4% for Ks. He's slashed .299/.419/.779 over that span (206 wRC+). After more than a year in the wilderness, this is a very interesting development. Let's hope he keeps it up and turns back into a thing!
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My idea was to give Manoah an Opener. Let him start with the bottom of the order, not the top. If the problem -- or some of the problem -- is anxiety/lack of confidence, which goes away after he has good results with the bottom of the order, then have him start with that.
I like the idea of breaking Kikuchi and Manoah up.... but geez, after today's game, I just don't know how we can keep going on with Manoah period. We need to start winning series against our competitors for playoff spots: the Rays, Yankees, Orioles and now the Astros and the Rangers - there's not much room for any stumbling from here on in. I'm also surprised they didn't try and keep Manoah in there for 80-90 pitches to at least save the bullpen a few innings. Not good.