Weekend up!: The Jays take another series, this time in Houston
On a nail-biting weekend of baseball, Stripling vs. Verlander, Springer's homecoming, Manoah the Man, MV-esPinal, Zack Collins, Gurriel, a wild Sunday, prospects, and more!
The Blue Jays took a series from the Astros in Houston over the weekend, winning two of three incredibly hard-fought, playoff-like games.
So let’s talk about it!
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Up: Friday: Jays 4 - Astros 3
You don’t go into a Ross Stripling start against Justin Verlander expecting a whole lot out of a game, but when you can manage home runs from Santiago Espinal and Bradley Zimmer on back-to-back pitches off of the future Hall of Famer, I suppose anything can happen. And in this one it did, with Houston’s ridiculous stadium coming back to haunt the Astros, as Espinal’s bomb off Verlander would have gone yard in just 12 of 30 MLB parks, and Zimmer’s even fewer.
Raimel Tapia had two hits for a second straight game in this one, brining his wRC+ for the season all the way up to 77 (though it would sink to 59 following an 0-for-4 on Saturday), scoring the Jays’ first run on a Lourdes Gurriel Jr. groundout (after making it to third on Vlad’s first of two singles on the day). The key offensive play, however, came in the top of the ninth, when Matt Chapman came up with two outs, Vlad on first (after his second single of the day), and the game tied at three…
Houston’s Hector Neris had battled back from being behind Chapman 2-0 to get him into a 2-2 count, but all that meant was that Vlad was able to start running as soon as Chapman started his swing, allowing him to show off his wheels, racing home from first base with no throw.
It was from here that the second of two pretty big pitching stories on the day for the Jays began. Jordan Romano, who some of us were getting worried about as recently as the previous afternoon, went out and threw eight of his twelve hardest pitches of 2022 — including the top three. Sure, he allowed a couple hits, but he was throwing harder and missing bats. That’s the way he’ll need to keep on trending in order to make those concerns go away. They haven’t yet, but it was a great step — as illustrated by the following graphic, which also tells us quite a bit about the second big pitching story.
Romano missing as many bats in his inning of work as Verlander did in six is pretty remarkable. Ross Stripling leading the game in swing-and-miss is also pretty huge.
Sure, Stripling allowed three runs on five hits over just four innings of work, striking out only two, but it was a perfectly acceptable start for a fifth starter. And, interestingly, he did it in a different way than his previous start. Stripling used his slider just 18% of the time against Oakland on April 15th, but in this one kept going back to it. Twenty-three of his 61 pitches to the Astros were sliders, making it — at 38% — his most used pitch on the day. Six of his seven whiffs came on the pitch, plus three called strikes on top of that.
Some of the differences between the two starts may have been simply about matchups, of course. But Stripling used his slider much more heavily in his three first — and most successful — years with the Dodgers than he has since 2019, so it’s definitely something to watch going.
Anyway, another victory stolen by the Jays!
Up: Saturday: Jays 3 - Astros 2
This was another nail-biter, but it certainly didn’t feel like it would be off the hop. George Springer, who was forced to sit out Friday’s game after getting hit on the arm/wrist by a pitch at Fenway Park last week, was in the starting lineup for this one, leading off, and hitting a home run in his first game back in Houston after signing a six-year, $150 million deal with the Jays ahead of the 2021 season.
Things tightened up from there, however, as Alex Bregman hit a two-run homer to put the Astros on top in the bottom of the frame. At just 91.1 mph off the bat, and going just 341 feet into the Crawford Boxes in left field, Bregman’s home run would not have been a home run at any other MLB park, but that didn’t change the fact that the Blue Jays were down early. Fortunately, they had Alek Manoah on the hill in this one.
Manoah didn’t quite seem his usual self in this one. After throwing his slider 42% of the time in his previous start against the A's — generating nine whiffs on 23 swings (39%) in the process — he used it just 26% of the time in this one, producing a whiff rate of just 27%. He relied on a heavy dose of fastballs, which led to a lot of swings, a lot of balls in play, and subsequently seven hits in six innings of work.
But Manoah was able to buckle down throughout. He didn't walk a batter, challenging hitters, and ultimately getting through five scoreless innings after that two-run first. I know this is a bit narrative-y, but he just seems to be able to do this kind of thing! It’s pretty remarkable.
Manoah’s performance was hardly the only remarkable one in this game, however. After a Gurriel sac fly tied it up in the sixth, in the seventh, Santiago Espinal stepped up to the plate and did it again. This time it was a 364 foot blast into the Crawford Boxes, which would have gone yard at 16 of the 30 MLB parks.
Espinal still exited this one sitting on just a 99 wRC+ for the season, slumping to .217/.288/.413 after a hot start. (Though that’s maybe slightly misleading given his quality of contact so far.)
No matter, the Jays were ahead. And they’d stay ahead thanks to some excellent pitching from their bullpen, some smart strategy from the bench, and a little bit of tasty glove work.
David Phelps struck out the first two batters he saw in the bottom of the seventh, but then walked leadoff hitter Jeremy Peña, which had Charlie Montoyo and Pete Walker calling to the bullpen for Ryan Borcuki for an important at-bat against Michael Brantley.
Borucki, pitching in the big leagues for the first time since last September, needed just two pitches to get out of the inning, and both were pretty notable. Each pitch Borucki threw was at 97 mph. Only once since last May had he had an outing where his fastball/sinker averaged above 96.0 mph. So to see this was pretty encouraging.
Next up was Yimi Garcia, who, with Jordan Romano unavailable after pitching on back-to-back nights, was expected to be the closer. Instead, his assignment was the eighth, where he faced a tough run of hitters: Bregman, Yordan Álvarez, and Yuli Gurriel. He struck out two in a 1-2-3 inning that was impeccably played by the bench.
Adam Cimber followed to close it out, but looked a bit shaky at first. Kyle Tucker singled to lead it off on a 1-0 slider. He then went down 0-2 to Niko Goodrum before battling back to strike him out. Former Blue Jay Aledmys Díaz was then up, and though he would smash a 100.4 mph, .610 xBA low line drive up the first base line, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was in the perfect place to catch the ball and double off Tucker to end the game.
The win, per the Sun's Rob Longley, would bring the Jays to 10-5 on the season, running their record to 5-1 in one-run games, with five come-from-behind wins. The 2021 Blue Jays wish they could!
Down: Sunday: Jays 7 - Astros 8
Jays starter Yusei Kikuchi had a bit of a strange day. There was a time where you felt for him for having such a tough day at the office, but ultimately you simply couldn’t.
The bottom of the second inning marked the height of sympathy for him in this one. A bad call on a 3-2 pitch to Aledmys Díaz put a runner on with one out, rather than (correctly) having the bases empty with two outs.
In the next at-bat, an error by Bo Bichette prolonged Kikuchi’s misery, as the inning ended up lasting 37 pitches, despite just one ball being hit out of the infield. Only two runs would score, neither of them earned. But at that point it felt like Kikuchi might just end up deserving a mulligan for this one.
One-and-two-thirds of an inning later, after Kikuchi exited following a rocket from Michael Brantley, it was harder to feel that sympathy.
Kikuchi had first taste of something resembling success in a Blue Jays uniform last Tuesday against the Red Sox at Fenway Park. In that game he threw his four-seamer 56% of the time — well above the 35% rate he'd used it in 2021 — limiting his cutter usage to just 16%, with his slider coming in at 21%. All seemed to agree that this was clearly the way forward for Kikuchi.
All, that is, except Kikuchi. (Or perhaps catcher Zack Collins — though there will be no Collins slander around here after what he did in this one).
Kikuchi threw his cutter 37% of the time in this one, pulling down his fastball usage (41%) and slider usage (14%) in the process. Making matters worse was how often he showed the pitch to certain batters. Michael Brantley saw five cutters on eight pitches, homering on the last one he was thrown. And number nine hitter Martin Maldanado walked in both of his plate appearances against Kikuchi, once to load the bases in that agonizing second inning, the next time two batters ahead of Brantley's big blast. He saw 13 pitches on the day, 11 of which were cutters.
What are we doing here, Yusei???
Uh... winning the game, it turns out! Er… almost.
No sooner than the game had firmly entered “well, at least it’s a series win” territory, the Zack and Santiago show began. (Lourdes Gurriel Jr.’s first home run of the season needs acknowledgment here too, I suppose.)
First there was yet another Zack Collins blast — and unlike his first hard knock of the game, which got to the right field fence so quickly that he was thrown out at second trying to stretch a double into a double, this one landed in the seats.
That one tied the ballgame. Then, following a John McDonald-esque play from Espinal to get the first out of the bottom of the sixth, in the top of the next frame, Espinal smacked a double to the wall in left-centre to put the Jays out in front.
The double brought Espinal up to a 104 wRC+ for the season.
The lead wouldn’t last, thanks to some poor batted ball luck for David Phelps in the bottom of the seventh — and Collins being unable to find a ball in the dirt that allowed a runner to advance. But after some back-and-forth the rest of the way — including a display of Lourdes Gurriel Jr.’s full defensive toolset in the eighth, when he misplayed a tough ball off the bat of Brantley but then recovered to throw him out trying to get to third — in the top of the tenth Gurriel redeemed himself as the Jays took the lead on a ringing double off of his bat.
Jordan Romano followed and for one batter looked again like the best version of himself — or better, at least, than the one we had seen in the cold of Fenway. It would only last one batter, however, as Jeremy Peña would take him deep to centre field to walk this one off for the Astros, preventing the Jays from stealing a sweep.
Woof. Wild stuff. But… well, at least it’s still a series win.
Other notes
• Some key injury notes from Sportsnet’s Arden Zwelling, as he reported on Friday that Teoscar Hernández has begun a hitting progression in Toronto as he works his way back from an oblique issue — good news, though there is no timeline for a return just yet. Then on Saturday he reported that Nate Pearson faced live hitters for the first time since spring training when he threw an 18-pitch live BP session in Dunedin that day. He added that Hyun Jin Ryu is progressing as well, and was throwing from flat ground at 120 feet. No word on Ryu’s velocities.
• SI’s Mitch Bannon tells us that prospect Estiven Machado has been placed on the IL in the minor leagues — a tough break for an interesting youngster who was limited to just one plate appearance last year due to injury. No idea what the issue is, but you hope that it’s minor. Taking his place on Dunedin’s roster is Adrian Pinto, the 2B/SS/CF the Jays got from the Rockies alongside Raimel Tapia in the Randal Grichuk trade (and a player I’m told that the Jays like a whole lot).
• Sticking with prospects, MLB Pipeline’s Sam Dykstra had his eye on Dunedin’s Ricky Tiedemann the other night. The 19-year-old 2021 third-rounder has seen some velocity gains since turning pro, and on Friday was averaging 95.5 mph on his fastball, touched 98, and allowed zero hard hit balls while going five no-hit innings with eight strikouts. The four walks were a lo+t, but still, he's one to watch.
• Orelvis Martinez wasn’t one to watch on Friday night, as Future Blue Jays tells us that he was out of the lineup for New Hampshire, having struck out in 11 of his previous 19 plate appearances, and having no walks on the season. Probably a good idea to pump the brakes on this one! Then again, on Saturday he hit his fifth home run of the campaign, a Vladdy-like 110 mph blast, so I do get the excitement!
• Former Jays coach John McLaren joined Hebsy Sports with Mark Hebscher and Toronto Mike this week, and revealed the source of a mystery that’s bothered me for 30 years: why Dave Stieb was always grabbing at his cup so much. I won’t spoil it here — go check out the clip!
• Lastly, an important note from Buck Martinez prior to Sunday’s game, as passed along by Dan Shulman.
I want to thank all the people that have sent best wishes to me during this journey, many former teammates many broadcast co-workers, current managers and GMs. The baseball family is a close and strong family. I am confident we will come out on top! Thank you for your support, it means the world to me! — Buck and Arlene Martinez
Get well soon, Buck!
Next up: Monday, 7:07 PM ET: Jays vs. Red Sox (José Berríos vs. Nathan Eovaldi), TV: Sportsnet, Radio: Sportsnet 590
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I'm really hyped about Tiedemann. Just to mention that this week might be one of the few times to see him on MILB.TV this year as they are playing Bradenton and those games are televised, unlike those in Dunedin and most of the other parks in that league. I assume his next start would be this Friday, maybe plus or minus a day, who knows.
Finally had an opportunity to listen to one of your podcasts and real enjoyed it! As a fellow pessimist, I'm so glad that Nick Ashbourne admits he tends to be on the negative side. It's always more rewarding in the end to be wrong. But I think the panic factor for Ryu should be extreme - not just for his own performance, but for the fact that we can't really afford to 'lose' a quality starter. That's a hole that will need to be filled, particularly if another starter (Kikuchi?) proves problematic. Apologies for all my comments - I think I've mentioned before that I'm baseball starved here in Australia. This is an outlet for me and I enjoy your stuff immensely!