Weekend Up!: The Jays win a series, though it didn't exactly feel like a victory
On Ryu making it work, Vlad's struggles, the Bo Show, mad Manoah, Jordan Romano, Kikuchi's bad inning, Votto's home run, Liam Hendriks, prospects, Blue Jays Happy Hour updates, and more!
My power has mercifully returned, unlike the majority of folks up here in Peterborough, and while I wasn’t able to watch either of Saturday’s or Sunday’s games due to the outage, I’ve now been able to catch up and can offer some thoughts on the Jays-Reds series.
Just seven runs scored in three games, eh? Ughhhhh.
So let’s talk about!
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Up: Friday: Jays 2 - Reds 1
Hyun Jin Ryu allowed eleven balls in play at over 95 mph, plus one more at 94.9, and five doubles on Friday night, but managed to keep the Reds off the board for six innings in this one.
Ryu's changeup didn't paint as pretty a picture as in his Saturday outing last week, when they were all clustered around the bottom corner of the zone to right-handed hitters. Several caught a little too much of the plate, and resulted four of the 12 hard-hit balls mentioned, and only one froze a batter for a called strike.
Still, five whiffs on 16 swings (31%) is pretty reasonable (he picked up a whiff on a changeup to a left-handed hitter in addition to the ones you see above), and Ryu did pick up six called strikes on his fastball — which averaged a reasonable-enough 89.6 mph — and seven more with his curve. And, well, it's hard to complain much about six shutout innings.
Can we complain, yet again, about the Blue Jays' offence. Sure! But a mini rally sparked by a double from number nine hitter Bradley Zimmer led to a couple of runs, which was all that the team would require in this one.
George Springer picked up an RBI single, plating Zimmer from second in the the bottom of the fifth. Bo Bichette knocked in the Jays' second run with a double. Zimmer would double for a second time in the seventh. Santiago Espinal and Raimel Tapia each managed a couple of hits. Matt Chapman continued to hit the ball hard, and now has an average exit velocity of 92.3 mph, up from last year's 89.7 mark.
It wasn't complete ineptitude!
However, Teoscar Hernández continues to be awful since his return from an oblique injury, having gone 5-for-50 with two walks over his last 13 games. He's struck out more than 30% of the time during this stretch, and has managed a line drive rate of just 8.8%. (For context, the worst line drive rate among qualified hitters in baseball last year was 14.6%. Surprisingly, it belonged to Matt Chapman). Instead, just about everything he hits seems to be on the ground at the moment, as he sports a 64.7% ground ball rate during this stretch (59.6% for the season) — way above the 38.4% rate he produced during his All-Star campaign last year.
And then there is Vlad, who hit a couple of balls hard, though neither was the lone one that he managed to have come off the bat at a launch angle greater than zero — a problem. He didn't hit a line drive all weekend, which is also a problem. However, on the positive side, he pulled the ball in three of his four plate appearances on Friday, which is something he should probably be doing more of (his 32.8% pull rate is well down from his career mark of 39.9%, though ).
The pull thing may simply be a function of how he’s getting pitched. As you can see in the top images below, Vlad has been facing a noticeably higher percentage of pitches down and away, both in the zone and out of it, than he was last season — at the expense of pitches seen up and in. And as you can see in the lower zone charts, he has also been chasing more at down and away pitches out of the zone — and swinging a lot more at pitches low and in, too.
Those low pitches are not ideal ones for him to try to drive, as he actually has yet to barrel a ball in the lower third of the zone in 2022 so far.
He at least continues to avoid strikeouts while picking up walks, as he has nine strikeouts to eight walks over 79 plate appearances so far in May. And there is no doubt that both Vlad and Teoscar will get themselves out of this funk sooner or later. But it sure would be nice to be able to stop writing about it soon!
Up: Saturday: Jays 3 - Reds 1
It’s not great when three runs for your team feels like a minor miracle, but that was the case in this one — the only game in which the Jays mustered more than two during the series. But the Bo-ah and Manoah Show was enough to power the Jays to victory. Bichette hit a game-tying solo shot in the bottom of the fourth, then three innings later bashed another with Ramel Tapia on base.
Bo’s offence was all the club needed, of course, because Alek Manoah had complete game-calibre stuff. And at just 83 pitches, he could have come out to pitch the ninth, too — a thing he certainly seemed to want to do.
Manoah has a point here, and I certainly wouldn't have minded seeing him come back out to finish this one off. He earned that chance, I think. But it's easy to forget, because of his size and his maturity and his dominance, that this is a 24-year-old pitcher with not a lot of innings on his arm. In his draft year, between pitching at West Virginia and his pro debut at Vancouver, Manoah logged just 125 1/3 innings. Then in 2021, between Buffalo and the Jays, he got to just 129 2/3.
I don't think the Jays are going to think about shutting him down at any point, but I’m not sure they’re entirely done being cautious with him either. Only nine starting pitchers have thrown a pitch in the 2022 season so far, and only one of them — Reid Detmers of the Angels, who threw a 108-pitch no-hitter on May 10th — is younger than Manoah. None of the others are within two years of Manoah’s age (24).
Not that age is necessarily the determining factor there, but for the most part we’re talking about guys who are past those workload concerns in a way that Manoah maybe isn’t.
Another thing is that Manoah wasn't exactly putting guys away in this one. That's not to take anything from his performance, because the Reds weren't hitting him hard at all — particularly his heavily used (41%) four-seamer, against which the Reds could muster only an average exit velocity of 82.4 mph on nine balls in play. Still, Manoah got into a two-strike count with 13 batters, yet managed just four strikeouts on the day. His whiff rates were good across the board on the day (32%) and he picked up a bunch of called strikes as well, but declining strikeout trend continued in this one. This is something I noticed quite clearly when poking around the data at Props.cash — player prop research made easy! — prior to the game.
Add in Saturday’s four strikeouts and that’s now four of his last six games where he’s fanned five or fewer. And this is a guy who last year had a K/9 rate of 10.24!
I don’t think you want to do anything to change the way Manoah is going right now — a 1.62 ERA and the third lowest barrel rate (2.9%) among qualified starters in baseball are pretty hard to argue with — but that’s definitely something to keep our eyes on.
Anyway, Manoah gave way to Jordan Romano in the ninth. Pitching for the second straight day after missing nearly a week due to a gastrointestinal infection, it was great to see Romano look very much like himself in this one. His slider, in particular, was outstanding. The pitch generated three whiffs on three swings, and he picked up five more called strikes on it, too. That's a total of eight CS+Whiffs on 11 sliders (73%). That's very good!!
Down: Sunday: Jays 1 - Reds 3
Walk. Strikeout. Walk. Walk. Flyout. Double. Hit by pitch. Strikeout.
That's how Yusei Kikuchi started off this game. It was a 37 pitch inning that started with a four pitch walk. The fact that he managed to allow only two runs in the frame was actually pretty incredible. But given the way the Jays' lineup has been fail to score runs these days — have you heard about that??? — that was just about all the Reds needed to do.
Kikuchi used his fastball 70% of the time, which is on the high side even for a guy who has been heavily encouraged to throw the pitch more often than he typically has. But partly that was due to the fact that he badly needed to establish his command of it. His only used the four-seamer in his first inning walk to Joey Votto, quickly falling behind 3-0 with a trio of poorly located pitches. (Though he deserved better from the umpire on ball four).
It was unfortunate. And then, from the second inning on, the great version of Kikuchi we’re getting used to seeing of late returned. Over his final 3 1/3 innings of work he was much more efficient, averaging fewer than 15 pitches per frame. He allowed just one hit, no walks, no runs, while striking out five.
This one got into the bullpens with the score tied at two, and while the Jays were held hitless by three Reds relievers — only one of whom, Alexis Díaz, is actually good — the Reds managed to put one more on the board. And they did it thanks to a shot off the foul pole from none other than the greatest player the Toronto area has ever produced. (Apologies to Goody Rosen!) (Also, Russell Martin is really a Montrealer, he doesn't count!)
I didn’t even hate the pitch from Garcia! But ugh. You hate to see it.
Of course you also, just a little bit, kind of love to see it. Especially since, according to C. Trent Rosecrans of the Athletic, between the second and third pitches of the at-bat, after an inside changeup "forced him out of the box, the Reds' slugger walked around the area around the plate. He stretched. Then he looked into the dugout and, according to (teammate Tyler) Naquin, said, 'home run.'"
Over the years Votto has been the subject of not infrequent gazing from the side of the border, and yet he's never wavered (in public) on his commitment to the Reds, and has always seemed rather aloof about the idea of one day ever playing for his hometown team. Well, this was a hell of an audition — though he entered play on Sunday with a wRC+ of just 39 in 98 plate appearances — and this weekend we heard, I think more than ever, stories about his quiet connection to his hometown, which was apparently there all along.
Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer wrote over the weekend about Votto's connection with his old high school, Richview Collegiate Institute, where he plays pickup basketball in the offseason (always bringing food afterwards).
“Joey is the most sincere person you’ll ever meet,” Votto's baseball coach Stath Koumoutseas tells Goldsmith. “He’s honest and he’s humble. He has never forgotten Richview. He’s still one of the guys. He’s a superstar, but he really enjoys coming by and talking with us. He has never forgotten us. That’s what sets him apart from most.”
Meanwhile, Rosecrans joined Votto to Manchester Park in Mimico, where he had first learned the game as a boy.
Votto addressed the nostalgia factor after the game himself, in an interview with Bally Sports Ohio — albeit in typical Votto fashion.
HOST: Who knows, the could be your last time playing here. To have the game winning home run in this place, what was the stroll around the bases like?
VOTTO: You're providing context right now. I wasn't thinking like that. I'm thinking about, I'm in the middle of competition. Our team's tied. You know, when you're in the middle of work like this, that's the priority. I'm wearing a Reds uniform right now in a road city. No question about it, it's great, it has great meaning. But I'm not thinking about it right in the heart of competition.
HOST: You've played here before, but how nice is it to come back and play in front of family and friends who I know are up here watching.
VOTTO: It's the best. I got to see my mother. You know, you go months, months without seeing family — and it's the nature of our job, I wouldn't have it any other way — but it's undeniable that coming back here, playing well, and seeing family, and entertaining has great meaning to me.
Votto has one more year under contract with the Reds, plus an expensive club option for 2024 that seems unlikely to be picked up. Because of the expansion of interleague play starting next season, the Jays and Reds will play each other again before his contract ends. Whether that game will be in Toronto or Cincinnati is still up in the air, meaning this may have been the last time he’ll play in his hometown. If so, it was a hell of a way to go out.
Other notes
• Liam Hendriks was teammates with Josh Donaldson on the Blue Jays in 2015. Liam Hendriks does not like Josh Donaldson very much, and didn’t have any problem saying so following Donaldson’s “apology” for this weekend’s incident with Tim Anderson (who is Black, and who Donaldson kept calling “Jackie,” as in Jackie Robinson, which he claimed — and Hendriks refuted — was an inside joke). Liam Hendricks is pretty awesome. Tim Anderson, too!
• R.I.P. to legendary writer Roger Angell, who passed away over the weekend at the age of 101. David Remnick’s obituary for him in the New Yorker is particularly touching.
• Sportsnet’s Arden Zwelling reported on Saturday that lefty Tim Mayza will resume baseball activity this week, about a week after being shut down due to forearm inflammation and landing on the 15-day IL. The MRI on Mayza’s elbow came back clean, Arden reports. Great news!
• Future Blue Jays has a look back on the week that was for the prospects in the Blue Jays’ minor league system — including some pretty exciting ones bubbling up from the low minors.
• Speaking of prospects, MLB Pipeline has updated its top 100 list, though it still only includes three Blue Jays. Gabriel Moreno stays at number four overall, with Orelvis Martinez at 31, and the suddenly hot Jordan Groshans — who is up to .356/.452/.407 for the year in Buffalo so far, with just five strikeouts to 11 walks in 73 plate appearances (though the lack of power is a bit of a concern at the moment) — at number 75.
• Perhaps just as interesting to Jays fans is the player highlighted by Pipeline’s Sam Dykstra as one of the players to have fallen the farthest: Austin Martin, who went from the Jays to the Twins last summer in the José Berríos trade. Martin, Dykstra tells us, is back in Double-A for a second straight year, but is hitting just .257 with very little power. He slides from number 48 to number 63 in their list.
• MLB Trade Rumors gives us the rundown on Adley Rutschman, Pipeline’s number one overall prospect, who was finally called up by the Orioles this weekend in order to make his big league debut. Rutschman is older than Bo Bichette, and only one month younger than Alek Manoah. Congratulations, Baltimore!
• Interesting piece from Brennan Delaney of Blue Jays Nation, as he takes a look at several pitchers and position players who are in Buffalo at the moment, but who could potentially help the Blue Jays at some point this season.
• A good one from Mitch Bannon of SI, as he talks to Jays third baseman Matt Chapman about making the transition to a new team and a new home stadium as something of a perfectionist on the defensive side of the ball.
• Lastly, apologies again for missing Sunday’s Blue Jays Happy Hour, but the power situation in Peterborough just wouldn’t allow for it. We’ll be back at it this week on Tuesday, following the final out between the Jays and Cardinals from St. Louis, and again on Sunday after the Jays and Angels wrap their series up.
Follow Blue Jays Happy Hour on Callin and swing by after Tuesday’s game to listen live, drop us a question, or give us a call!
Next up: Monday, 7:45 PM ET: Jays @ Cardinals (José Berríos vs. Miles Mikolas), TV: Sportsnet, Radio: Sportsnet 590
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Liam Hendricks is awesome.
What do you mean that Romano is ‘back to looking like himself’? He looks about 15 years old after getting rid of the scruff.