Weekend Up!: Yeah, but Oakland...
Deciding what was real and what wasn't in the Jays' good performance over the weekend against the A's. Topics include Bassitt's belt, Kikuchi's curve, Vlad's velocity, plus Good week/Bad week, & more!
Sometimes all a struggling ballplayer needs to get his confidence back is a short trip to the minor leagues. The Blue Jays got about as close to that experience as a struggling lineup in 2023 can get, hosting the lowly Oakland Athletics for three games at Rogers Centre over the weekend.
While the Jays still managed to be defeated once by a team currently on pace to lose more than 120 games — incredibly frustrating! but also something that's happened to both Texas and Tampa twice, plus once for Baltimore, Atlanta, the Angels, Cincinnati, and other not-awful teams — they head into a much bigger test, in the form of this week’s visit from the 44-34 San Francisco Giants, with what feels like a bit of momentum. And, finally, a toehold on the third AL wild card spot.
How much of the success the Jays had over the weekend was indicative of a real turning of the corner and how much of it was simply about playing the A’s? We obviously can’t know for sure, but that seems to me like a fun kind of lens to look back at the weekend’s games through. Doesn’t it?
So let’s!
Here’s Weekend Up…
Friday: Blue Jays 4 - A’s 5
The Jays started the weekend with a thud. Not just in terms of the final score of this one, but the way that Friday's starter, Chris Bassitt, once again stumbled out of the gate.
Single-Strikeout-Homer-Strikeout-Walk-Single-Single
The three runs the A's scored pushed Bassitt's ERA in the first inning of starts this season to 9.00. The fact that five of the first six batters he faced hit from the left side also helped to further inflate the numbers lefties have produced against him this season: a slash line of .283/.370/.602 (.408 wOBA).
The disaster inning — a word I use for a three-run frame only because it's the A's and not, you know, a real baseball team — wasn't just about those two crucial Bassitt pain points, either. It also had to do with literal pain, and a real pain-in-the-ass thing he'd been forcing himself to do.
"It hasn't been pitch mix against lefties, if you talk to people around the Blue Jays," Arden Zwelling explained early in the second inning of Friday's Sportsnet broadcast. "It has been execution. And talking to Chris Bassitt in Miami, he revealed to me that he has been pitching through some physical ailments lately. He said, 'I Just haven't been right. At this point in the season, with where we're at, it's tough to find time to take care of it. But we're OK. We're good.'"
Not long after that, it was also noticed that Bassitt had stopped calling his own pitches via the PitchCom device on his belt, and that instead Danny Jansen had started using the one that detaches from his leg guard (which he then hides in his glove while inputting his pitch selection).
Bassitt would later tell reporters, including MLB.com's Keegan Matheson, that "less is more" and that by having to call and then dial in all of his pitch selections, he believes he's been "thinking too much on the mound rather than competing."
He also suggested that he might be tipping the way he's sequencing pitches.
The lack of success against lefties in particular — Keegan points out that he’s generally been a little better against right-handers, “but not even to the point of being noteworthy,” and right-handed hitters this year are slashing .183/.246/.263 against him — also makes me wonder about the way he's usually positioned when using the PitchCom device. Maybe there’s been something in the way he stands that allows the third base coach to pick up his inputs and relay an incoming pitch to a lefty, or that players on that side of the plate can see, which right-handed hitters and the first base coach can not.
Whatever was going on, after this ugly confluence of things in the first, the decision was made to let Jansen call the game, and the results got a whole lot better. Other than hitting a batter to start the fifth, who would eventually come around to score on a sac fly, Bassitt mostly sailed through the rest of his night. Interestingly, he also went to his four-seamer against LHB more often than in any other start of the season, dramatically reducing his use of both the sinker and cutter — perhaps also in the name of simplifying.
And the verdict…
On a scale of 1 to 5 "Yeah, but Oaklands" I give Bassitt's performance over his final four innings of this one four Yeah, but Oaklands.
Turning his game around against such a lefty-heavy lineup after handing off the pitch-calling duties to Jansen and simplifying things was obviously good, and it's encouraging to think that maybe this resolves whatever pitch/sequence tipping he may have been doing. But Oakland. The Red Sox next weekend will be a much bigger test.
Saturday: Blue Jays 7 - A’s 3
This one was more like it, thanks in large part to the stabilizing force that has been José Berríos this season — something my Blue Jays Happy Hour cohost, Nick Ashbourne, wrote about here on Monday for Yahoo. (Money quote: “If Berríos and Kikuchi were conceding runs at the same clip as they were last year, the Blue Jays would project to be approximately 39-40 right now.”)
Mercifully, what Berríos has done this season so far looks far more in line with his career before 2022, at least in terms of the top line numbers. We don’t really have to view him through the “but Oakland” lens, I don’t think.
The player from this one that we do have to view from said lens is, of course, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. In a losing effort on Friday night, Vladdy hit his first home run of the season at Rogers Centre. He homered again on Saturday afternoon, as part of a 6-for-12 weekend where he produced four extra-base hits, seven RBIs, and struck out only twice.
There’s definitely some “Yeah, but Oakland” in there, but how much do we think? Let’s focus on the dongs.
The first one, I'll concede, came on a not-great pitch from a not-great pitcher. James Kaprielian has been a serviceable enough starter for the A's the last couple of years, but he's got a 6.34 ERA this season, walks too many guys, has been a little homer-prone, and at 92.5 mph on average doesn't have an especially hard fastball.
On the other hand, though, it was on a two-strike pitch, a pitch in the part of the zone that he hasn't been hammering quite as hard as others this year, and was crushed well enough to have left the yard in all 30 big league ballparks. More importantly, Vlad actually, you know, did the thing. He smashed a smashable pitch and managed to get it elevated.
(Clip via Sportsnet/MLB Film Room)
That last last bit is, I think, especially crucial. We can see in the following chart, which shows a rolling 25 batted-ball average of his launch angle this season, that he's moving back in the right direction in that regard. What was saw this weekend wasn’t so much new as it was a continuation of a trend that was already underway.
In Saturday’s game — the one we’re ostensibly talking about here —Vlad tagged a pitcher who is having a better season by ERA (3.80) than Kaprelian, but is somehow even less impressive otherwise. Austin Pruitt doesn't miss bats (4.6 K/9), doesn't generate ground balls (36.0 GB%), is homer-prone (1.52 HR/9), and doesn't throw hard (91.8 mph).
And while it's good to see Vlad crush a 3-2 pitch in particular, this was an 81 mph curve on the edge between middle-middle and middle-low — areas of the zone in which Vlad, heading into Saturday, had produced .779 and .493 wOBAs on curveballs respectively since the start of 2022.
(Clip via Sportsnet/MLB Film Room)
And the verdict…
Overall, for Vlad’s weekend performance I’m only going to go with two Yeah, but Oaklands. This is perhaps against my better judgment, because I’m certainly being easy on him here for feasting on weak pitching. But it’s not as though these were the first bad pitches, or bad pitchers, that Vlad has seen during his recent fallow stretch. He crushed their mistakes like he’s supposed to.
Maybe more importantly was the distance that these two balls travelled.
One of the most confounding things about Vlad’s season so far has been the fact that while he’s been barrelling the baseball just as often as ever this year, those batted balls haven’t gone nearly as far as they did in previous years. Sportsnet’s Chris Black had an interesting thread that touched on this last week, which pivoted off of a clip in which Caleb Joseph broke down some of Vlad’s janky swing mechanics of late.
Heading into the A's series, the average distance on balls that Vladdy has barrelled this season was 356 feet. That's 34 feet shorter, on average, than in 2021, and 25 feet shorter than last year (when, unless you were Aaron Judge, the ball was de-juiced).
The two homers he hit this weekend rank as the second- and fourth-farthest barrelled balls he's hit all season at 437 and 434 feet respectively.
There are definitely still some A’s-related questions to be asked about this success, but I think the good signs here are too good to simply chalk them up to opposition alone.
I’ll be honest here, friends. This site keeps the lights on for me, but it isn’t a cash cow. And I could live a lot more comfortably than I do right now if I was willing to put some of my work behind a paywall and push a bunch readers who are on the fence into becoming paid subscribers. But, the thing is, I know that times are tough for a lot of people and I really don’t want to become inaccessible to anyone. So, if you can afford it, and you value what I do and aren’t already a paid subscriber, I’d ask that you consider upgrading your free membership to a paid one. Thanks. — Stoeten
Sunday: Blue Jays 12 - A’s 1
There was definitely some Yeah, but Oakland in the outcome, and in the final score of Sunday’s big Blue Jays victory as well.
Ken Waldichuk was one of the key pieces the A’s got from the Yankees in last year’s Frankie Montas deal. Apparently that one isn’t working out for anybody this season, as Montas has yet to pitch for the Yankees (thanks to the shoulder injury that he very obviously was dealing with at the time they dumbly traded for him), while Waldichuk has struggled to a 7.07 ERA and managed to get himself moved from the rotation into the bullpen. Also, Jays fans saw up close this weekend how Oakland CF Esteury Ruiz does not seem able to translate his excellent speed into being an excellent — or even, at times, passable — fielder. Yet, when it comes to the pitching side of things, and Yusei Kikuchi in particular, I think there’s more to the story of this blowout.
Kikuchi’s most fearsome opponent tends not to be any member of the opposition, but himself. The stuff is there. He throws heat from the left side that few other starting pitchers can, has some nice secondaries, but too often hasn’t been able to harness those into the kinds of crisp, efficient pitching performances of which it has always seemed he should be capable.
That’s not to imply that he hasn’t been pitching well for a while. It’s just that, on Sunday, things were different. He seemed especially confident, and it showed in the fact that he was able to throw more pitches and get deeper into the game than in any other start he’s made for the Jays to this point.
Over 10 starts through May 24th, Kikuchi had a 4.56 ERA, a 5.82 FIP. To that point he'd done reasonably well at preventing left-handed hitters from reaching base, though when they did manage to put the bat on the ball he was getting hit hard (.222/.263/.528). And in the same span, right-handers were simply teeing off on him (.292/.343/.530).
In six starts since then he's pitched to a 2.48 ERA, limiting opponents to a slash line of .179/.250/.359 overall, with little in the way of a platoon split.
How?
Well, one thing jumps out to me here, and it’s his curveball — an offering he ditched after his first MLB season back in 2019, but that he’s begun to use again this year.
Starting at exactly the point when he made this turn for the better, the spin rate on his breaking balls — particularly the curve — noticeably improved.
Relatedly, the average drop on his curve began to increase at that point…
…and at the same time he’s been using it a whole lot more.
And the verdict…
Again I am perhaps being kind, but I'm only going to give Kikuchi one-and-a-half Yeah, but Oaklands for this one. Obviously facing a lineup as punchless as this will contribute to a thing like the 45% whiff rate Kikuchi generated on his curveballs, and the mistakes he tends to make will be punished less, but as with Vladdy, I love what I’m seeing in the trend lines. I also loved the unusual comfort he seemed to display on the mound, and my guess is that it comes back to the curve. It's a pitch he used twice in 3-0 counts — something he'd done only once before in his entire career (and that was three starts ago).
"Throw your best pitch more often" is a concept that's worked wonders for Trevor Richards this season, and if that's what Kikuchi's curve is becoming with the added spin and depth (and, in the last couple of starts, a little less velocity), maybe that's what's happening here too. And I don't think it's a stretch to theorize that having a pitch he's increasingly good and comfortable with could be why the version of Kikuchi we saw on Sunday looked so confident.
Facing the A’s lineup couldn’t have hurt in that regard, and maybe things go sideways against better hitters in his next outing and I end up looking foolish for saying all this, but this felt like a continuation of something, not a fluke outing against a bad team. Eye tests being flawed aside, he looked like a guy who could have done just as well against a better lineup with the stuff he was throwing.
Whatever concoction it is that the umpires aren’t finding, keep brewing it!
Good week/Bad week…
It was a good week for…
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. posted a 176 wRC+ against the Marlins and A's, and while some may question how real some of that production was, he was at least near the top of the team leaderboard — just behind Santiago "Clutch" Espinal (216) and noted sex-haver Cavan Biggio (215).
• On the pitching side, Kevin Gausman was, of course, great. We've covered Kikuchi. Trent Thornton or Mitch White? Pass. Trevor Richards is expected to be good now, somehow. So I'll single out Erik Swanson, who continues to put together what should be an All-Star campaign. Two of the eight batters Swanson faced this week managed to get hits off of him, but none came around to score, and four walked back to the dugout having struck out.
It was a bad week for...
• Giving up the go-ahead home run to Shea "Steven King's The" Langeliers was a blemish for Jordan Romano, to be sure, but he still whips. So, for this one I'll go with former top prospect Nate Pearson. The A's and some days off helped brighten things up for him, but he allowed five runs on four hits and a walk while recording just a single out during Monday's blowout loss to the Marlins. And that was just a day after allowing three in 2/3 of an inning in Texas. Look at how they massacred my boy!
• Woof. Daulton Varsho was 1-for-15 with only one walk and six strikeouts for the week. That's not even good for a catcher, which... he's going to dust off his catching gear if Tyler Heineman has to go on the IL because of the back issue that forced him out of Sunday's game, right? Right?? I mean, the Jays wouldn't seriously acquire a guy who brings a bunch of value with his ability to go behind the plate and then just never use him there, right? Right???
⚾ Be sure to follow me on Twitter // Follow the Batflip on Facebook // Want to support without going through Substack? You could always send cash to stoeten@gmail.com on Paypal or via Interac e-Transfer. I assure you I won’t say no. ⚾
Easy solution to Bassit. Have an opener so he doesn't have to pitch the first inning. Problem solved.
Seriously, we need him to get on track. Gausman has been great, although prone to high pitch counts and the odd stinker. Berrios has been great, but there's still a bit of fan base trepidation before his starts. And Kikuchi has been better than expected, but honestly - how much confidence do we really have in him? This is all being negative of course. I guess what I'm saying is that with our offence behaving weirdly, we need our starters to give us consistency the rest of the way out. Not much wiggle room for one of them to falter.
Can you explain to me why thr rays have another worldly 34-10 win loss percentage at home and only an average one on the road?Is there any precedent for this anomaly?