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Taking a closer look at the mid-off that is the chase for the American League's third Wild Card spot.
After all the frustration, all the finger-pointing, all the lost games and wasted opportunities, the Toronto Blue Jays find themselves just two games out of a playoff spot as they get set to open a midweek series in Milwaukee here on Monday. If you had followed the conversation around this team without ever looking at the standings, I suspect this fact would be genuinely shocking. Hell, even knowing the standings doesn’t make it make sense. Like… how???
The answer, of course, is as plain as the image at the top of this post. Other teams are also bad, and playoff spots are more plentiful than ever. We are all Rob Manfred’s children now, sired variously by cheapjack owners and Jerry Dipoto’s 54% quote.
And if you think this is bad don’t look at the standings in the National League, where only four teams are at .500 or above.
As far as the AL’s race to the middle goes, those other bad teams may not all have the Jays’ unique-seeming ability to not hit home runs while also giving them up in bunches. But some do—looking at you, Tampa Bay. They may all have better run differentials than the Jays do right now—again with the Rays being an exception here—but that doesn't necessarily tell us as much as we often let ourselves believe.
Run differential becomes a very good measure of a team's quality by the time the season ends, but in the early going it's quite a bit less solid. For example, a 2021 post from the blog Good Griefs found a very strong correlation between a team’s end-of-season run differential and end-of-season winning percentage that year (r=0.94), but much less of one if, say, looking at run differential in early June.
You can also see here that a number of clubs that were under water in terms of run differential in June ended up having pretty decent years. A team that hasn’t played well to this point isn’t necessarily incapable of playing well ever, in other words. It’s on, baby!
But just who is it on against? Who is participating in this mid-off?
Let’s take a closer look…
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Minnesota Twins (34-31)
Games back: --
Run differential: -6
Home runs: 69 (9th)
wRC+: 100 (t-6th)
ERA: 4.25 (12th)
HR allowed: 80
Only the White Sox and the A's sport a worse ERA among starting pitchers than the Twins do, with three of their starters having marks above five and only Joe Ryan and old friend Simeon Woods Richardson keeping respectability in sight. Pablo López and Bailey Ober should be better going forward than they have been, but Woods Richardson surely can't keep up his 2.84 ERA while flashing just a 7.46 K/9, a .265 BABIP, a slightly below average ground ball rate, and a HR/FB rate of 7.6%. Can he?
The bullpen is has been good if not quite elite, but it's a bit top-heavy, with five relievers sporting an ERA below 2.66 and four at 4.32 or above. However, they seem to have been deployed well, as the Twins' 27 meltdowns are the second fewest in the AL (their 62 shutdowns rank fifth). They’ve also possibly been helped by their defence, which is either pretty good (+9 OAA, fifth in the AL) or not great (-4 DRS, 12th).
On the offensive side of the ball they just got last year's breakout star Royce Lewis back from the IL, which should help move things in a positive direction. Several hitters are going well, with four guys in the 115-120 wRC+ range, Trevor Larnach above that at 123, and catcher Ryan Jeffers continuing from where he left off last year at 135 with a team-high 12 homers. If Lewis keeps it up, Byron Buxton stays healthy and rediscovers his form from back in 2021 or even 2022, and the rotation holds it together (huge ifs!), they might even have something here. But, for the moment, this doesn't feel much like the team that tied for the AL lead in home runs last season, and that’s going to be a problem in a stronger AL Central. (Hey, but at least they've got their strikeouts down, Twins fans.)
Fraud index: 10/10 (Yeah, these frauds suck.)
Boston Red Sox (33-33)
Games back: 1.5
Run differential: +30
Home runs: 72 (t-6th)
wRC+: 100 (t-6th)
ERA: 3.42 (3rd)
HR allowed: 60
No pitching staff in the AL has compiled more fWAR than Boston's, and the way is being led by Tanner Houck at 2.9. Houck was a heavy ground ball pitcher before ditching his four-seamer and significantly increasing his splitter usage this season, but the homer he surrendered in his most recent start was just the second of the year—a trend that he simply will not be able to sustain. Kutter Crawford has a 3.51 ERA and 1.7 fWAR. Justin Slaten, a Rule 5 pick from Texas, has already been worth a win out of the bullpen. What are we doing here? Who is Brennan Bernadino? Where am I?
This was a team that was projected to post a 4.95 ERA overall this season, tied for the second-worst mark in the AL, and yet here they are sitting at 3.32. And that's without Garrett Whitlock, who started extremely well, or Lucas Giolito, both of whom are out for the season after UCL surgery. Giolito was the only real starting pitcher the Red Sox brought in over the winter, despite having one of the AL's worst rotations last year, so this all feels pretty dumb. Houck, Crawford, Brayan Bello, and Nick Pivetta have some intriguing qualities, but this all shouldn't be coming together so neatly for them all at once.
Defensively they're the opposite of the Twins somewhat, with DRS liking them well enough (+18, 8th in the AL) but OAA disagreeing (-6, 12th). But on the position player side it is, of course, the lineup that stands out. Their 100 wRC+ obviously looks average, but actually ranks sixth in the AL, as do their 72 home runs. And this is happening with Triston Casas having been out with a fractured rib since late April. Rafael Devers is on pace for his best ever season at the plate. Tyler O'Neill looks like the best version of the player we saw in St. Louis. Connor Wong has been ridiculous (137 wRC+) despite posting a 78 mark over 400 PA last year. Wyler Abreu, though currently on the IL, has been good. Jarren Duran has been good. Seven Red Sox hitters with at least 100 PA so far have a wRC+ above 115. It's annoying.
Fraud index: 10/10 (Absolutely no way. Frauds.)
Detroit Tigers (32-33)
Games back: 2.0
Run differential: -6
Home runs: 59 (12th)
wRC+: 92 (14th)
ERA: 3.87 (7th)
HR allowed: 61
Tarik Skubal is a star, Jack Flaherty is pitching as well as he has in years, and Reese Olson—acquired at the '21 trade deadline for Daniel Norris—keeps on looking like a big leaguer. However, I question how much mileage they're going to get out of a rotation comprised of those three, the ghost of Kenta Maeda, and some combo of Matt Manning and Casey fewer-than-six-Ks-per-nine Mize. Especially when you see that they're producing just a 92 wRC+ as a team on the other side of the ball.
The bullpen hasn't been great—they're just behind the Jays with 52 shut downs (11th), their 36 meltdowns rank 6th, and their ERA is 4.01—and their fielding has been average, so until they find more guys than Riley Greene who can hit (Matt Vierling is doing well, but losing Kerry Carpenter recently to a lumbar spine stress fracture hurts) it's hard to see how this is going to end well. And with a 14-20 record since May 2nd, the inevitable slide already appears to be starting.
Hey, but they’ve only played the White Sox three times so far, so they’ve at least got that going for them. (They’ve also got Lupita’s in Mexicantown, which can only help.)
Fraud index: 10/10 (Big time frauds.)
Toronto Blue Jays (32-33)
Games back: 2.0
Run differential: -35
Home runs: 54 (t-13th)
wRC+: 97 (t-8th)
ERA: 4.16 (9th)
HR allowed: 85
We don’t really need to spend a whole lot of time on these jerks, do we? They need to hit more home runs and give up fewer. I think they have the ability to do one of those things in them, at least.
Fraud index: 10/10 (Yeah, I’ve watched these frauds play a lot.)
Tampa Bay Rays (31-34)
Games back: 3.0
Run differential: -62
Home runs: 49 (15th)
wRC+: 95 (11th)
ERA: 4.41 (13th)
HR allowed: 86
If I think the Jays still have a chance—and, jokes aside, I actually obviously do—then I suppose I can't write these Rays off either. But it feels like the power of their devil magic has run out, at least for this season. They're worse than the Jays by each one of the metrics above, somehow.
The team we're told always plays the right way is also second last in the AL with -23 DRS, though OAA rates them as average. They're tied with Oakland for the most bullpen innings so far, and that's not necessarily because they make frequent use of openers, since that's happening far less than in recent years. They've been almost as bad as the Jays in terms of reliever fWAR (-1.1 versus -1.5) which is certainly not what you'd expect from a team that always seems to have strong pitchers materialize out of thin air—and is a turnaround from last year, when both clubs tied for third in the AL for relief fWAR at 5.7. And their 46 meltdowns trail only the White Sox’ 52. Yet, it's not as though they have a purely awful bullpen, they've just handed a lot of innings to guys who stink. Five of their relievers have a FIP of 5.30 or above, four of which are above 6.50. Pete Fairbanks and Garrett Cleavinger have both been walk-heavy, but otherwise really good.
The starters have been a mixed bag, with the real surprise being Aaron Civale, who has been oddly homer-prone on his way to a 5.51 ERA. With Shane McClanahan, Jeffrey Springs, and Drew Rasmussen all making their way back from long-term injuries, that could change in a hurry though.
On the offensive side it's Isaac Parades (148 wRC+) and not a whole lot else. Despite putting up an AL-best 118 wRC+ as a team last season, it's like they've decided to match the Jays' lack of power while adding in below average walk rates and an inability to avoid strikeouts. Not great. I definitely wouldn't want this to be the team I remodeled my own team in the image of! *COUGH*
Fraud index: 10/10 (Massive frauds.)
Texas Rangers (31-34)
Games back: 3.0
Run differential: +13
Home runs: 66 (11th)
wRC+: 96 (10th)
ERA: 3.89 (8th)
HR allowed: 68
Josh Jung and Evan Carter being out have hurt them lately, to say nothing of the absences of Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer—the former of whom should make it back this summer—but it's not like Carter had been hitting anyway. Same goes for the highly regarded Wyatt Langford, as they each have a wRC+ in the 70s. There are steps back all across the board for the reigning World Series champs, who see a huge drop off in production in their lineup beyond Josh Smith (134 wRC+), Corey Seager (130), and Marcus Semien (117). Nathaniel Lowe is their only other hitter above a 92 mark.
The defence has been excellent (+12 OAA and +29 DRS), but it's only helped their pitching staff to just be OK overall. There are good stories among their pitchers, though. Cody Bradford has been hurt since April but started very well. Nathan Eovaldi and Jon Gray have been very good. Michael Lorenzen has a tasty 3.05 ERA despite uninspiring peripherals. Kirby Yates—yes, that Kirby Yates—has been excellent.
There are pieces there, in other words. And with better health, or the bats simply waking up, they could theoretically be threats.
Fraud index: 10/10 (What, did you think I was going to say they’re not frauds??)
Houston Astros (30-36)
Games back: 4.5
Run differential: +6
Home runs: 84 (3rd)
wRC+: 113 (3rd)
ERA: 4.23 (11th)
HR allowed: 76
Lastly we look at Houston, where the wheels may finally be coming off for the 41-year-old Justin Verlander (3.95 ERA/4.98 FIP), though that's far from the biggest rotation problem they’re faced with. Luis Garcia is still just making his way back from Tommy John surgery performed last May, Lance McCullers Jr. is still not back yet from forearm issues that have limited him to just eight starts since 2021, and both Cristian Javier and José Urquidy have already undergone TJ this season and are out for the year. Verlander, Ronel Blanco, and Framber Valdez have done well, but Hunter Brown (5.58 ERA) and Spencer Arrighetti (5.79 ERA) have not picked up the slack.
Their bullpen has been mostly fine, though the 15 losses they've been charged with are the second most in the AL, behind only the White Sox. Closer Josh Hader maybe hasn't been quite as otherworldly as hoped. But, unsurprisingly, the offence has been downright good, trailing only the Yankees and Orioles among AL teams. They don't strike out, they still manage to tap into their power, and, of course, they have Kyle Tucker (176 wRC+, 19 HR, though currently on the IL with a shin contusion), Yordan Alvarez (148, 13), and Jose Altuve (130, 10).
Yeah they should probably be better. Nevertheless…
Fraud index: 10/10 (Seven years on and they’re still the gold standard for fraudulence.)
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Hey Andrew - as a happy paying customer, you should absolutely start pay-walling some (many? most?) of your posts. Granted I know nothing of the business side of what you do, so proceed as you see fit. But I think there's more folks like me out there than you may realize, sometimes they just need a little nudge.
I'll give it a few more years before really deciding, but the early look at the expanded playoff format is not good imo. As expected, it rewards mediocrity. It lets bad teams hang on sort-of contending while basically stinking up the joint. And it doesn't seem to make the post-season more exciting. I honestly think it's better to just be out of the race, you can call up some young guys, relax and watch baseball without feeling the Need To Win More Games Because We're So Close Guys Just a Couple More Games We're Only Two Games Back We Just Need To Get Hot C'mon Bro Just Two Games Back(tm).
Maybe the only good thing I'll say about it (from the fans perspective) is it may make playing in a stacked division a bit less of an impediment (but you're still trying to beat out teams from the perennially-awful Central division who get more games against truly awful teams).
Ofc it makes more money for the owners, so none of that matters...