It’s never a bad time for a little rosterbation. With, uh, 40 men? I don’t know. What is this, a Dollar Tree?? Here’s a post!
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Asked in a recent Zoom session with reporters about potentially having a roster crunch in the coming weeks, Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins was emphatic in his insistence that he views the idea as a positive.
“I hope it is,” he said. “I hope it is, because it means we're not adding others to that list of 60-day ILs, and I hope we do have that challenge to be thinking about. And we're starting to think about what our choices and options will be. Really encouraged about the guys that have gotten opportunities, that have been added to the roster via waiver claim, trade, or just adding them from internal depth — how well they've performed and how they are making that decision very tough for us.”
Right now the Jays have 40 players on their 40-man roster, obviously. They have six players who are temporarily off of it because they are on the 60-day IL: Thomas Hatch, Alejandro Kirk, Julian Merryweather, Patrick Murphy, David Phelps, and Kirby Yates.
We can pus Yates aside here because we know he’s out for the season, at which point his contract expires. The other five, however, will presumably have to be re-added to the 40-man at some point in the near future. Hatch is already set to make a rehab start for Buffalo on Thursday of this week. Barring setbacks, Kirk seems on course to be back around the time he’s due to come off the 60-day in early July. The status of the other three is less clear at the moment, but adding Hatch and Kirk back in the near term will be challenging enough for a Jays team still struggling for depth, and they’re likely going to have to find a place for Alek Manoah soon, and maybe even for newly signed reliever Carl Edwards Jr. as well.
Who may end up crunched out of a job if everyone ever does actually get healthy? I’ve taken the liberty of examining the current makeup of the 40-man and picking out some candidates.
Locks (32)
Pitchers (15): Ryan Borucki, Tyler Chatwood, Rafael Dolis, Thomas Hatch, Anthony Kay, Steven Matz, Julian Merryweather, Patrick Murphy, Nate Pearson, David Phelps, Robbie Ray, Jordan Romano, Hyun Jin Ryu, Ross Stripling, Trent Thornton
Position players (17): Riley Adams, Bo Bichette, Cavan Biggio, Jonathan Davis, Santiago Espinal, Randal Grichuk, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Teoscar Hernández, Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk, Otto Lopez, Gabriel Moreno, Josh Palacios, Marcus Semien, George Springer, Rowdy Tellez
These are, of course, the guys who I don’t think will be going anywhere. I don’t imagine there are any big surprises here, save perhaps for a prospect like Otto Lopez, who isn’t exactly a household name yet. You could probably argue that Jonathan Davis — who will be out of options next spring, assuming he eventually spends more than 20 days in the minors this year — could also be a potential DFA candidate at some point this season, but I think that’s unlikely.
Instead, here are the 13 guys I think are most likely to be caught up in an eventual roster crunch.
Bubble (13)
Pitchers (11): Nick Allgeyer, Jeremy Beasley, Travis Bergen, Anthony Castro, A.J. Cole, Elvis Luciano, Tim Mayza, Tommy Milone, Joel Payamps, Ty Tice, T.J. Zeuch
Position players (2): Reese McGuire, Joe Panik
If fully healthy, the Jays could only keep eight of the 13 players I've put here on the bubble, meaning five will have to go. As soon as this summer! Add Manoah to the mix and now you’re looking at losing six players from this group.
Of course, health doesn't usually work that way, so it's unlikely the Jays will actually need to designate quite so many guys for assignment in the coming weeks and months. But at some point something's going to have to give, and they’re going to lose a few of them — or at least have to expose them to waivers. Here's a look at each player’s case, specifically, as it stands right now.
Nick Allgeyer
Allgeyer may not be the most notable prospect, but he's a prospect and as such probably should be in the “lock” category. Back in February, Sportsnet's Arden Zwelling called him "a favourite within Toronto’s player development department" and noted that he "has taken considerable strides over his three years in the organization thanks to an earnest buy-in to the bevy of analytical performance tools modern-day pitchers have at their disposal." His arrival in the majors last week may have been surprising, and it certainly created another 40-man headache for the club, but he has pitched well in limited work for Buffalo this year — in 12 innings over two starts before his call-up he had allowed just seven hits while striking out 10, walking five, and allowing just two runs (he did, however, allow two runs on a pair of walks and one hit in his one-inning return to Buffalo’s staff on Tuesday night) — and I doubt he’s a layer of depth the Jays are going to consider shedding while there are still scrap-heap type relievers hanging around.
DOES HE LAST UNTIL SEPTEMBER: I would think so, yes.
Jeremy Beasley
A middling starter in the Angels system in 2019, Beasley was flipped to the Diamondbacks last January for former Rays starter Matt Andriese. Working as a reliever, he faced just three batters in the majors in 2020, throwing a four-seamer that averaged 91.5 mph and 2,357 rpm. Acquired last month from Arizona for cash, he made his Jays debut last week, and suddenly was averaging 94.9 on his four-seamer and 2,580 rpm. That spin rate ranks 30th among 520 pitchers to have thrown a four-seamer in the majors so far this year. He ranked 41st in spring training, too. But while that’s the kind of thing that appeals to the Jays, rpm alone didn’t do much for Kirby Snead, who had a better spin rate than Beasley this spring, yet didn’t make the big league club. (Granted, Snead’s fastball was only averaging 92.7). Other guys employed by the Jays who were above Beasley on this spring’s version of that list? Thomas Hatch, Joey Murray, and now Carl Edwards Jr. So, while intriguing in a way that definitely has the Jays’ attention right now, he can’t coast. Beasley needs to perform.
WILL HE BE HERE IN SEPTEMBER? I tend to doubt it.
Travis Bergen
Bergen has allowed just three hits and four walks in 9 1/3 innings of relief work this season. His 0.00 ERA jumps off the page, and I don’t recall ever feeling like he’s on the verge of coming unglued. But the fact that he's only struck out six, and that he's throwing his fastball 92% of the time, just doesn’t seem like a recipe for success. That doesn’t mean he can’t be successful, but it’s unusual for someone to make that profile work long-term. And the fact that the Jays, the Giants, and the Diamondbacks have all let him go at points in his young career already doesn’t make me feel confident that the industry believes the good times are going to keep on rolling. That said, he’s a different pitcher than he was before. The only-throwing-fastballs thing is new, and maybe he ends up being the rare guy who makes it work. He has an advantage in the fact that right now he has an opportunity, and sometimes that’s all it takes.
STILL AROUND IN SEPTEMBER? Maybe, but I’m not betting on it yet.
Anthony Castro
I didn't feel right putting Castro in the "lock" category, because he's a waiver pick-up who has thrown just 7 2/3 innings for the club. But they've been seven-and-two-thirds really good innings! Plus, Castro was really good all spring, and has the ability to go multiple innings because of the fact that he is not far removed from being a starter (he made 18 Double-A starts in 2019). Before his recent injury it felt like the Jays may have really found something in him, so I think he'd have to hit a pretty big rut to pitch his way off the roster, though that is still definitely possible.
HERE IN SEPTEMBER? I think probably.
A.J. Cole
Cole is clearly a guy that the Jays like, and he's had some success for them, but he's definitely not in the same category as a Romano or a Merryweather or a Dolis. I think that’s mostly because, despite the fact that his results have been decent over the last two or three years, he's not exactly overpowering — from K/9 rates above 10.0 in 2018 and '19, he's produced a mark of just 7.71 in both 2020 and 2021 so far. The fact that he had to accept a minor league deal this winter, and didn't make the Blue Jays coming out of spring training, is also telling. His case is likely also hurt by the fact that he is out of options and can’t be stashed away in the minors like some of the other guys on this list. It’s either the big leagues or the waiver wire for him, it seems, which may leave him on the outside looking in if the bullpen ever gets healthy, regardless of the 40-man situation. But again, he has a chance right now to work himself into that mix, and that’s big. If he can be as reliable for the Jays as he was in 2020 he might not give them any choice but to keep him.
DOES HE MAKE IT TO SEPTEMBER? I’d guess no, but there’s a chance.
Elvis Luciano
Still just 21, and the reason the Jays did a whole lot of work gaming the Rule 5 process back in 2019, Luciano would be a tough guy for the front offic to give up on I think. But what is he, really? He's pitched just three times in Double-A so far this season, his first action since mid-2019, when he "mysteriously" went on the IL with an arm issue approximately one second after he'd been on the active roster long enough for the Jays to acquire his rights. Nothing really stands out about his numbers as yet. And in a piece at FanGraphs on prospects in limbo back in February, Eric Longenhagen noted his 20-grade command in 2019. He continued: "His pitch data from the alt site has him sitting 93-94 with average slider and changeup movement; I have nothing on the command. I think the workload leap teams’ pitching staffs are about to experience and the fact that Luciano has option years makes it likely that we see him in the big leagues at some point in 2021. He’s still only 21, and would be a 35+ FV prospect (major league-ready up/down relievers live there) were he eligible."
IS THAT REALLY GOOD ENOUGH TO KEEP HIM AROUND? He wouldn't be first on my list to go, but wouldn't be last either.
Tim Mayza
He might have been in the “lock” category a couple weeks ago (which should tell you something about my completely unscientific method here!), but he’s looked absolutely awful in his most recent appearances. Maybe he’ll get it back just as quickly as he lost it, and obviously the Jays thought a lot of him to add him to the 40-man coming out of spring training in the first place — he was on a minor league deal and they didn’t have to do that, but he pitched his ass off all spring and won himself a job — but it’s not looking great for him at the moment. I don’t think four bad appearances undoes everything good he’s done to this point, but if he remains the number three bullpen lefty, or drops in the pecking order once Anthony Kay ultimately gets pushed out of the rotation by Manoah or Pearson, he’ll be in a real fight to stay on the 40-man, I think.
STILL HERE IN SEPTEMBER? Sadly, not very confident about that at the moment.
Reese McGuire
Finally we get to our first position player option, and it feels like we’ve been here before. Reese McGuire’s roster status was the subject a lot of words this spring. I suppose that’s an improvement on the reason he was the subject of a lot of words last spring *COUGH*, but nonetheless, we’ve already seen him squeezed off the roster once, and we know exactly why. Danny Jansen is entrenched as the Jays’ starter, Alejandro Kirk will be pushing for that job when healthy, and with youngsters Riley Adams and Gabriel Moreno on the 40-man as well, there just isn’t room enough for McGuire when everybody’s healthy. Based on his usage since arriving back in the big league, the Jays do clearly like him some. But glove-first catchers are just too easy to find to be stashing one on your 40-man, even if there’s a chance he could get claimed end go be a big leaguer for some other team.
A MEMBER OF THE BLUE JAYS IN SEPTEMBER? I doubt it.
Joe Panik
If Panik were a right-handed hitter, or is Santiago Espinal was a left-handed hitter, the decision here would be much easier. Espinal is better than Panik in just about every single way, except for the fact that he can do nothing to help balance the Jays’ righty-heavy lineup. Is that alone enough for Panik to keep his roster spot? It has been so far! Though the Jays obviously do also value Panik’s “veteran presents” as well. With Espinal able to be optioned down to the minors, and lefty bats at a premium, something pretty significant — a trade, perhaps — would have to happen before we see Panik go, I’d think.
WILL HE LAST THE SEASON? I mean, yeah, probably.
Tommy Milone
If everybody is healthy and pitching as well as they can, I’d figure Milone is behind Mayza among the Jays’ bullpen lefties. Definitely behind Borucki. Behind Kay, and probably Bergen, too. Maybe behind Allgeyer at this point. Sure, Milone has been good when pressed into action for the Jays this year (other than his last game before landing on the IL), and the increased strikeout rate over the last couple seasons is certainly intriguing (he’s struck out 57 in 53 innings since the start of 2020 despite having a career K/9 of just 6.84). But good teams don’t have a lot of room to carry 34-year-old lefties throwing in the mid-80s as reclamation projects. Milone is depth, and he served well in that role when called upon, but there are better options.
DOES HE LAST THE WHOLE SEASON? I can’t imagine it.
Joel Payamps
I don’t think Payamps has quite pitched himself into “lock” territory just yet, but he’s getting close. A strong spring followed by a mostly healthy and surprisingly good start to 2021 has given him a great position in the Jays’ bullpen pecking order to defend, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see him drop fairly quickly. Payamps has a 1.93 ERA at the moment, but his FIP is 4.96, largely because he hardly strikes anybody out — just 10 Ks in 18 2/3 innings. His 47.4% ground ball rate is decent, which helps, but hardly elite. And his 100% strand rate is bound to come down. When it does, some of those other warts, like the lack of a true out pitch, are likely going to start to show. I mean, I hope they don’t — I hope he continues to be a really effective reliever for the Jays going forward — but when a guy gets placed on waivers four times in a single off-season, as Payamps was this winter, that’s a pretty loud signal about what the industry really thinks of him.
IS HE STILL HERE IN SEPTEMBER? Probably, but perhaps not as likely as you think.
Ty Tice
Tice has had a pretty good minor league career so far, though it's noticeable that he stumbled somewhat when he got to Triple-A in 2019, walking 21 batters in 33 innings. He also struck out 41 over that span, which is likely why the Jays added him to their 40-man last winter, ensuring that he couldn't be selected in the Rule 5 draft. He's just 24, makes the league minimum, and will have two option years left beyond this one, so I don't think his spot is in any imminent danger. But once a couple other guys are let go, and more 40-man moves need to be made, he could be among those in consideration for the chopping block. At least depending on how highly Blue Jays brass values guys who can dunk a basketball, and how things go in Buffalo.
A SEPTEMBER BLUE JAY? I think so.
T.J. Zeuch
Zeuch rightly earned praise with a four-inning, three-hit, no-run start against the Yankees back at the start of April, and some of his good work in the spring as well, but his subsequent results were more in line with (low) expectations. He's been better in Triple-A, strikeouts wise, but 18 hits and four walks in 14 2/3 innings doesn't have him knocking on the door to the big leagues again just yet, nor does his 6.14 ERA. Zeuch is more in the Waguespack category of pitchers for me, which means his spot will likely be in peril at some point (Waguespack is with Buffalo this season after being designated for assignment in early March and slipping through waivers unclaimed). Right now I'd likely have Allgeyer ahead of Zeuch. I'd definitely have Pearson, Manoah, Kay, Hatch, Thornton, Stripling, Matz, Ray, and Ryu ahead of him too. That doesn't bode well for his chances if everyone is healthy.
STILL HERE IN SEPTEMBER? My guess is no.
So where does that leave us?
As mentioned above, there’s obviously no way of knowing exactly how this all will play out. For the moment, though, I think two of Milone, Zeuch, and Beasley are likely going to have a tough time keeping their roster spots once Hatch is ready to be activated and Manoah gets the call. McGuire probably doesn’t have a spot once Kirk is ready to come back, Cole may get squeezed off the active roster before he does the 40-man, and Bergen, Castro, Mayza, and Payamps have some measure of control over their fates. Panik and the younger arms I hesitated to call locks — Allgeyer, Luciano, and Tice — are likely somewhat safer.
For now, anyway.
More talent is very much on its way. Beyond Manoah, I think there’s a good chance the Jays will find a place for Edwards Jr. in the near future. As I mentioned above, Hatch should be active by early June, Kirk by early July. In Sunday’s Zoom session, Atkins had high praise for Forrest Wall and several other Buffalo players who may ultimately get a look. Joey Murray, Miguel Hiraldo, Leo Jimenez, and Eric Pardiho headline the group of players who will need to be added to the 40-man after the season to protect them from December's Rule 5 draft. Some of the Jays’ best Double-A prospects — Austin Martin, Jordan Groshans, Simeon Woods Richardson — may be making their push by sometime next season.
In other words, some interesting Blue Jays talent is going end up in other organizations in the coming weeks and over the next 12 months. That’s simply a consequence of being a pretty good team. As I’m sure Atkins would agree, it’s a good problem to have.
Top image: Reese McGuire via the Toronto Blue Jays/@BlueJays
I wonder if they'd called up Manoah and he'd pitched today instead of Stripling if we would have won? Who knows. Presumably there are innings count issues with Manoah? Say he comes up....he's not going to pitch every 5th day for the rest of the season even if he's successful?. BUT a win is important now as it is at the end of the year. Call him up, see if he has success for a limited amount of innings, and then get another starter at the trade deadline.
Awesome look Stoeten!