Winter Meetings 2022: Judge stays, Manfred sucks, Jays still quiet
On the stupid Yankees, Rob Manfred's balls, payroll parameters, the catching market, Senga, Nimmo, plus all the Jays' greatest misses: Gibson, Heaney, Walker, Taillon, Bellinger, Jansen, and more!
Welp. Despite Jon Heyman giving us a glimmer of hope on Tuesday evening that the stupid Yankees might be entering the 2023 season down an MVP, news broke on Wednesday morning that Aaron Judge will be staying with the team that tried to turn fans against him by publicly stating that he’d rejected a seven-year, $213.5 million extension back in the spring.
Judge did manage to get an extra two years and nearly $150 million out of the Evil Empire, but that’s of little consolation. And if you think that this is actually a good thing because the bloated dollar figures will hurt the Yankees down the line, go ahead and try kicking that football Lucy’s holding, Charlie Brown, I’m sure she won’t pull it away at the last second this time!
The Yankees always seem to get what they want, and while that rather deliciously hasn’t turned into a World Series victory in the last 13 years, it’s a problem. Especially when we have a commissioner’s office so grimly obsessed with squeezing every last dollar out of the sport above all else that it’s willing to put their thumb on the scale for them (or, at the very least, for their brand).
Much more explosive than the Judge signing is Tuesday’s story from Bradford William Davis of Insider, in conjunction with Dr. Meredith Wills, which broke the news that Wills’ most recent research showed evidence of MLB using three distinct baseballs in 2022 — the most home-run friendly of which ended up used exclusively in some incredibly suspicious places.
Now, it’s worth noting that the number of balls that were collected for this study was fairly small — “over 200” — but it’s also worth noting that part of the reason is that Rob Manfred’s office was very determined not to let balls get to Wills for analysis. Giants outfielder Austin Slater, for example, was willing to help get to the bottom of Manfred’s balls, but was warned by a top league executive who “specifically mentioned that the league does not want any game balls going to Wills — and that the league could fire anyone linked to giving out baseballs.”
Fearing that team employees could lose their jobs, Slater backed down. But he’s far from the only player to go on record in the piece about the open secret that is the league’s mucking about on this.
What wasn't known until Tuesday was the pattern of distribution seemingly at play here.
And, as Bradford reminds us, the league itself is very much aware of which balls go where.
Our sample is not random. We got balls from whatever sources were available to us, and we can't represent that any particular ball was sent for any particular reason to any particular game. We don't know whether Judge hit a Goldilocks ball on his way toward breaking the [American League] record. But we do know that the league keeps track of information that would permit it — if it wanted — to know which balls get used in each game. According to two sources familiar with MLB's ball shipment process, the league not only directs where its balls are sent, it also knows which boxes its game compliance monitors – league employees tasked with ensuring each team adheres to league rules – approve and use before each game starts.
An MLB source who asked not to be named to protect them from league discipline, but whose identity is known to Insider, said that before each game, the league's game compliance monitors "[record] the batch number" – in this case, a six-character label placed on each Rawlings box – "and the quantity of baseball[s]... used for that game." Then, the league source said, compliance monitors send an email to their supervisors with that information.
The more these threads get pulled at, the less good this looks for the league. It’s scandalous.
But hey, congratulations on raising player salaries, Rob. Congrats on making a weasel like Bud Selig seem quaint! Now would you mind telling me which of your balls Tim Mayza threw to Carlos Santana back in October???
Or, if not me, perhaps you’d like to answer these questions to any one of your many new official gambling partners. (The league did release a statement calling Wills’ conclusions “wholly inaccurate and just plain wrong,” which I think we can all agree is exactly what a multi-billion-dollar cartel would say.)
Anyway!
Even though the objectively funniest possible free agent outcome of the year didn’t happen, and the Jays have yet to cause even a fraction of a ripple in San Diego, it doesn’t mean there isn’t still a whole lot to talk about as the Winter Meetings proceed. So let’s talk about it!
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Shapiro talks payroll
It was only a year ago when, asked whether the Blue Jays could at some point push their payroll toward the Competitive Balance Tax threshold, that Mark Shapiro explained that “it’s not something that we're planning for as we sit here and look at the payrolls moving out.”
One year, and an incredibly expensive commitment to stadium renovation, later and the club’s tune has apparently changed.
“It is not an obstacle for us,” Shapiro told reporters in San Diego on Tuesday. “It will not limit us. We’ll have a budget, and a budget that we’ll limit to, but the CBT is not going to be what sets our budget, managing around that.”
This is good, and overdue. It also seems so tenuously connected to increased revenues that one can’t help but believe that the Jays could have literally done this at any point in the past.
Now, to be fair, MLB does keep bringing in that sweet gambling partner money mentioned above, along with massive national US TV deals, the recent $900 million sale of the remainder of BAMTech to Disney, and new revenue streams like adding sponsored jersey patches on uniform sleeves — something Shi Davidi explored in a Tuesday piece at Sportsnet on Shapiro’s payroll comments, noting that the Jays are “actively seeking” a partner (one can only marvel at the possibilities: Rogers or TD?). But these payouts are increasing at least somewhat in step with the escalating threshold, so forgive me if I don’t quite see how a team that had never had an opening day payroll above $165 million prior to 2022 can now float the idea of potentially blowing past, like, $220 million if the resources weren’t there to do better sooner.
Which I think we all obviously knew! And which Shapiro basically acknowledged.
From Shi’s piece:
Drastic change. What’s behind that?
“Ownership commitment,” Shapiro said.
The quote actually went on beyond there, with Shapiro adding details about the financial picture, but that’s about the size of it. And credit to him for building the relationship with ownership to get here, because it certainly hasn’t always been like this.
However, saying payroll can keep rising and actually doing something about it are two different matters. The story of these Winter Meetings for the Blue Jays so far has been how little they’ve spent, and how many pitching options are off the board now for a club that has been pretty open about their need to add at least one, and likely two, starters.
The front office has earned some leeway when it comes to this stuff, having splashed money all over the place in the last few years, but fans are somewhat understandably growing a bit restless. Especially as the size of the Jays’ big recent outlays shrink relative to the going rate. Former Blue Jay Taijuan Walker parlayed a couple strong seasons with the Mets into a four-year, $72 million deal with Philadelphia — just shy of Hyun Jin Ryu’s contract from three winters ago, at the time the biggest free agent deal for a pitcher in Blue Jays history.
It would be nice to see some “damn the consequences” moves from this team, because those consequences are a silly self-imposed façade. It’s not like we don’t know that there is a ton of cash floating around this sport!
So what have we missed?
OK, so lets take a look at some of the guys who won’t be pitching for the Toronto Blue Jays in 2023…
• Kyle Gibson (Baltimore, one year, $10 million)
Dan Connolly of the Athletic reports that the Jays offered Gibson the same deal as the Orioles did, and while it's very, very easy to say that missing out is no big loss, seeing some of the other contracts being handed out makes offer this a little more understandable. I still think it's a bullet dodged, though. And, as I wrote back on Monday, I don't particularly believe the publicly stated reasons for him accepting Baltimore’s offer over Toronto’s. Also he’s kinda bad. Meh.
Also lmao.
• Andrew Heaney (Texas, two years, $25 million, plus incentives and a 2023 opt-out)
There were reportedly nine offers for Heaney to choose from, one of which belonged to the Jays. Sportsnet's Ben Nicholson-Smith reports that their offer had a higher guarantee, but that could simply be because they weren't offering as much in incentives. The Athletic's Levi Weaver says that Heaney left money on the table and that "Chris Young's ability to sell the vision for the team was a big factor in Heaney's decision."
That and the lack of a state income tax, no doubt.
Anyway, though Heaney gets hit hard and can't seem to stay on the field, he gets enough swing-and-miss to offset it and would have been a good addition here in the event that his performance and health actually came together well for once. Meh.
• Taijuan Walker (Phillies, four years, $72 million)
Walker seems like he's fully past the arm troubles that derailed him in 2019 and 2019, making 29 starts in each of the last two years for the Mets. He's fine — and also an awesome dude who it's easy to cheer for. But since there are so few mid-rotation starters around, he got paid to a very surprisingly high level for a guy who produced the lowest strikeout rate of his career and has tended to be more homer-prone than he was in 2022. Good for him. Meh.
• Jameson Taillon (Cubs, four years, $68 million)
Similar to Walker in terms of age, with similarly average-ish rate stats. Similar ERA, similar WAR, similarly deep arsenals, and similar contracts — both unencumbered by qualifying offers, which they certainly seem to have been rewarded for.
Four years of Taillon wouldn’t have been the worst thing in the world, but this is not a contract that’s easy to get excited about. Still, he’s a guy the Jays could have stuck in their rotation fairly comfortably for a while and that’s not nothing. Might be time to recalibrate your valuations, Ross!
• José Quintana (Mets, two years, $26 million)
That creep can roll. And he had a great season with the Pirates, producing a 2.93 ERA and 2.99 FIP, despite only throwing 91 and not having the most sparkling of walk or strikeout rates. I tend to not buy the dead cat bounce here, but FIP always seems to like him, even if the ERAs have tended to go sideways in most years over the last half-decade. Still, at that price and term this could have worked to at least add another arm to the fifth starter mix. Meh.
Also, Quintana on this deal versus Yusei Kikuchi's remaining two years and $20 million? I could convince myself to place a bet on Kikuchi. But keep in mind that I'm a terrible gambler. Also, oh boy, thinking about this is grim!
And the misses just keep on coming!
The starting pitching market isn’t the only area where the Jays keep on coming up short. Let’s look at a few more misses…
• Kenley Jansen (Red Sox, two years, $32 million)
The Jays were apparently in on this one, and while Jansen is a pitcher I’ve felt has been on the verge of falling apart since, like, 2015, he continues to be a very effective, durable, high-leverage reliever. And signing him would have given the Jays a pretty scary bullpen, which would have been fun for once. Still, though, I think the bullpen is in pretty good shape with the addition of Erik Swanson, and some of the internal help that could be coming. So, as bad as it is to be having to pour dollars into the rotation yet again this winter, that’s probably the way to go here.
I don’t like that he’s gone to Boston, who now sport a pretty good bullpen in their own right. But that will just make it tastier when the wheels finally do actually come off (hopefully some time after the World Baseball Classic). Meh.
• Cody Bellinger (Cubs, one year, $17 million)
It’s easy to dream on Bellinger’s MVP past, but the thing about him is that he hasn’t hit for two years. That’s why he’s looking for a pillow contract to rebuild his value, and that’s why more of a win-now team like the Jays probably wasn’t a great fit. The Cubs can run him out there for 700 plate appearances without worrying about his bat putting a dent in their aspirations, because teams that finish 74-88 then lose their best hitter in free agency to their biggest rival don’t really have those. Bellinger could find his hitting stroke and help lead Chicago to unlikely success, or could have enough trade value in July to bring back a nice prospect or two. Or he could be a $17 million, glove-first centre fielder. A win-now team like the Jays can’t really afford for him to be the latter, which would likely put pressure on them to cut his playing time for a more productive hitter, which is the last thing he wants as he heads for another crack at free agency. Meh.
So what’s going on here?
I think the Jays are probably just sticking to their valuations pretty firmly, which is not a new thing for them when starting out an offseason. When inventory is plentiful, they seem to be willing take any number of paths as long as they get the player on their terms, and can pivot to more specific needs from there. As the inventory dwindles, they’ll likely — hopefully — get a bit more aggressive.
It’s frustrating to watch at times, because you’d sure like your team to be out there acting like the Padres, Phillies, Yankees, or Mets. But it’s not like they’re not going to improve the team significantly. They can’t not do something major (or several things major-ish), given how loudly the clock on Vlad and Bo’s under-market years is ticking. The shape of it just hasn’t quite come into focus.
What they land for one of their catchers very likely represents a big part of the puzzle here, and that doesn’t seem like it will happen until the teams that miss out on Wilson Contreras, who on Tuesday signed with the Cardinals (sorry Noot-bars), Christian Vazquez, and Sean Murphy start upping their offers for alternatives. You have to believe that the Jays already know where they line up with a bunch of teams on that front, which is also presumably affecting their aggressiveness with certain free agents.
There are also still big free agent names out there that could very plausibly be the types the Jays will be willing to go beyond their comfort zone with, the way they did when adding an extra year for Hyun Jin Ryu ahead of 2020. Kodai Senga may fit that bill, and though he has a lot of suitors now, it’s worth remembering that just about every time a pitcher comes off the board, that number likely shrinks. (Though the Mets are apparently still involved).
Brandon Nimmo is still a possibility, too.
If I had to guess, I’d say that the Jays seem to feel that taking runs at those kinds of guys with less competition is preferable to going crazy at the jump. I mean, unless you really want to have one particular guy, if you’re going to end up going beyond your comfort zone anyway, you might as well see if you can land someone on your terms first. And it seems like the Jays may not have that one particular guy in this market — or that, whoever he was (i.e. Justin Verlander), he may already be off the board.
That could be wrong, and it certainly doesn’t mean the offseason can’t still ultimately be a flop. We’ll just have to wait and see. But it’s not necessarily bad that things are progressing the way they are so far.
Unless…
Uh, unless this is true…
Now, this stuff isn’t about process, it’s about aims. But still: woof!
Like, you’re telling me that if Kyle Gibson had taken the Jays’ money they’d have walked away from San Diego feeling their rotation was complete?
I’m sure I’ve written that going with one of White or Kikuchi as the number five is probably fine — and it probably is! maybe??!? — but at this point it feels a bit like saying “this bagged lunch is probably fine” while all your coworkers are queuing up for round two at the buffet.
I am choosing to believe this is posturing, but it alarms me a little bit, because if the Jays were high enough on Kikuchi and White to give up Nick Frasso and $36 million for the pair, I have to believe they’re a lot more bullish on them than fans are.
It also kinda tracks with this…
Now, before we get too carried away, “they’ve just been after one” starting pitcher is very much not the same as “they’ve been after zero starting pitchers.” So, I think that’s fine. It’s just… Kyle Gibson? 35-year-old, 5.05 ERA, down a mile-per-hour in velocity Kyle Gibson? This Kyle Gibson?
Yeah, that’s not good enough.
Quickly…
• Lots of great stuff in Shi Davidi's Wednesday afternoon dispatch from San Diego for Sportsnet, including more from Mark Shapiro on the coming sleeve advertisements, some generalizations on how insuring contracts works (including an admission that "we have some players we have coverage on," and that the club goes to market to at least look at policies on every long-term contract they sign), and a note on Boston and Chicago joining the Jays in looking for a future All-Star Game (currently 2025 and 2027 and beyond are available). He also touches on the Jays’ work on new outfield dimensions (Shapiro says the park will continue to play neutral), and adds a note on Rob Manfred saying that MLB’s rejection of the Rays’ stupid split-season plan with Montreal back in January was a reflection of the plan, not of Montreal. Incheresting!
• Rob Longley of the Toronto Sun also has a good notebook piece from Tuesday night, in which we get an early “best shape of his life” type thing on José Berríos (via Luis Rivera), plus Shapiro saying that the Rogers Centre renovations are on track to be done by opening day, some comments from John Schneider on Don Mattingly, and something I’d missed when it first was announced: Charlie Montoyo’s return to the big leagues as the new bench coach for the White Sox.
• I mentioned Kodai Senga above, who the Jays definitely seem to like quite a bit. He "has already received multi-year contract offers of five or six years," said his agent, Joel Wolfe, in San Diego on Tuesday, according to Kyle Glaser of Baseball America. Wolfe also noted that Senga recently toured "six or seven" U.S. cities, which certainly raised some hackles among those expecting a visit from Toronto. However, it doesn’t seem like this is a deal that’s going to be getting done imminently, so maybe there’s still time for him to check out Toronto. I don’t know! Eat Arby’s!
• Benny Fresh added some more names to the list of possible Jays targets on Tuesday morning: Michael Brantley and Alex Reyes. Brantley, of course, seemed close to joining the Blue Jays two winters ago, so we know they like him. We also know they need a lefty bat. And we know he can still hit when healthy, producing a 127 wRC+ over 64 games in 2022, after putting up a 121 wRC+ in 121 games in 2021. Health is an issue, fielding is an issue, but there's potentially a fit there — especially if, as Ben notes, Alejandro Kirk ends up being the catcher who gets traded. Reyes, meanwhile, has elite stuff but can't stop walking guys, nor can he stay healthy (he did not pitch in 2022). Would be a nice add on a minor league deal!
• OK, now LET’S DO SOMETHING.
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Eagerly awaiting the KK post
No Nimmo. Would've been nice, but maybe a pipe dream. What the heck are they going to do about the outfield and replacing some of Teo's offence. Seems payroll is an issue.