Weekend Up!: The Jays take three of four from the stupid Yankees
On four great games, Gausman, Judge, right-right changeups, Apple TV+, whiny Yanks, Mitch White, a bullpen heater, Manoah, Cole, Audi, Schneider, letting one slip, schedules, and more!
The Blue Jays took three of four from the Yankees in the Bronx over the weekend, and nearly could have swept the series.
So let’s talk about it! Here’s Weekend Up!
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Up: Thursday: Jays 9 - Yankees 2
I covered this one in Friday’s piece, and on Thursday’s episode of Blue Jays Happy Hour, so I don’t have a whole lot to say here except that I really missed George Springer for most of the weekend.
The club is hopeful that Springer will be able to start when they begin their next series, which starts on Tuesday in Boston.
I also wanted to at least mention this game here, for the sake of completeness, because it’s just not every day that the Blue Jays play a crucial series like this at Yankee Stadium and have it work out so well. Might as well savour it!
Up: Friday: Jays 4 - Yankees 0
Wins are fun. Shutouts are fun. Shutout wins over the Yankees are incredibly fun, and full credit to Kevin Gausman, who was brilliant on Friday night — despite being down about one mph over velocity on most of his pitches.
Overall, this looked like a typical Gausman special: swing-and-miss splitters diving out of the zone, and a bunch of batters frozen on four-seamers. He certainly had those pitches working, and though the hard hit rate on the fastball — which tends to catch a lot of the plate — was high (70%), as it often is, his approach continued to put opponents off balance enough to keep the ball away from the barrel. What was most interesting, though, was the fact that he mixed in more changeups (8.1%) than in any other start this season — including some right-on-right ones.
Two of those right-right changeups were thrown to Aaron Judge, both inducing balls in play that went for outs. The strategy there seems deliberate. Judge's slugging percentage against offspeed pitches this season is just .289 (as of Saturday) — significantly worse than how he's slugged against breaking balls (.687) and fastballs (.767). The splitter is an offspeed pitch too, of course, but mixing in the changeup — which moves quite a bit less to the arm-side than the splitter (Note: In an earlier version of this post I described the H-movement wrong!) — just to avoid relying on fastball-slider too much seems smart!
And that, really, was that.
The rest of the Yankees' lineup isn't much of a threat at the moment. Gausman went seven innings and still only got up to 86 pitches. The Jays finally managed to get to Yankees starter Jameson Taillon — who pitched to a 2.08 ERA over four previous starts against the Jays this season — and they ensured at least a split in this four-game series.
Teoscar Hernández even hit a key homerun. Or so I heard...
Some Apple TV+ thoughts
• Look, I am positive that it’s hard to broadcast a “national” game that’s really geared to two local markets full of hyper-knowledgeable fans. I have sympathy for Friday night’s Apple TV+ crew. They certainly aren’t the ones insisting on distracting in-game interviews or pushing a more “conversational” booth atmosphere — things that could be good when done right! I’m not against experimentation, either! But, oh man, the half inning that they did where we could only hear the ballpark sounds was blissful. Blissful.
• From the horrendous musical loop between innings, to the crackling audio for half an inning, to Dan Pleasac calling him “Alex” Manoah and saying he thought Hyun Jin Ryu was going to carry the Jays’ rotation, to keeping the focus on Aaron Boone’s interview during Teo’s home run, to the difficulty many fans have finding Apple’s app on their preferred device, to the destruction of the ability to simply pay for a single service and watch all of your team’s game, Apple’s MLB deal absolutely sucks and Rob Manfred should be ashamed.
• Seriously, though, if Apple can figure out how to not serve American ads to Canadian customers, how in the hell can they not figure out how to serve ads to Canadians? Are we really to believe there’s so little money in this that it’s not worth even trying? I know a certain team president and CEO who would probably love it if Apple were to say so.
Up: Saturday
A Mitch White vs. Gerrit Cole matchup didn’t seem like a great one for the Jays heading into this series, or into this game. And then… well… let’s just say that neither the Yankees nor their fans were having a very good time on Saturday.
New York stumbled to 9-20 since the All-Star break after this one, but the win didn’t come easy for the Jays. White had to wriggle his way out of trouble constantly, failing to pitch a clean inning in four tries, and allowing a pair of hits in three of those frames. Seven hits in four innings doesn’t necessarily sound like a commendable outing, but he did a great job when it mattered most to keep runs off the board,
White didn’t walk anyone, struck out out five, allowed just a single run, and — thanks to Thursday’s blowout and Friday’s gem from Gausman — was able to turn it over to a well-rested bullpen. The relievers — Cimber, Phelps, Bass, Pop, and Garcia — did a spectacular job from there: five innings, two hits, one walk, one run, six strikeouts.
This, apparently, has actually become something of a trend, which leads us to another sub-section…
Mini mail bag!
I haven’t done a mail bag in a while, but that doesn’t mean I don’t get questions from time to time, and this was a particularly good one — and relevant to this game. So, without reading any of Griff’s answers first, let’s have at it…
Yo Andrew, question for you. I caught on the broadcast earlier that the Jays bullpen has one of the best ERA's in baseball since July 1st. That felt like that couldn't be correct (it is), but their FIP/xFIP/WAR is all 15th-24th over that same period (WAR of 0.5). Why the discrepancy between ERA and those other stats? Is the difference between FIP and ERA just because they're getting a bit lucky as unit? — Ryan
Great question, man! It would be an oversimplification to say that the difference is simply luck, but that’s definitely a big part of it.
Let’s take a step back a second first, though.
WAR, assuming you're looking at FanGraphs, is largely based on FIP, so a bad FIP will lead to a bad WAR. FIP assumes that pitchers can't control what happens once the ball is put in play, so it only looks at strikeouts, walks, hit batters, and home runs. If a team has a really low BABIP, FIP assumes that’s just noise.
Generally that’s probably true, but it’s not necessarily always true.
For example, the Jays have guys — primarily Adam Cimber, now also Zach Pop — who are below average strikeout pitchers but can reliably induce weak contact, and therefore regularly beat their FIP. Not a ton of bullpens get as many innings from guys like that, so relative to other teams the Jays may not receive enough credit from FIP/fWAR. (You may remember FIP-busting Jays in the past, like Marco Estrada — who kept hitters off balance and failing to square him up with his wicked changeup — and R.A. Dickey, who did the same thing with his knuckleball.)
Also, over this same stretch, the Jays had Tim Mayza and Yimi Garcia — typically higher strikeout guys — functioning in much the same way as Cimber does. Both of their strikeouts dipped, which depressed their FIP. However, they both managed to hold opponents to BABIPs below .160, which kept their ERAs were low.
Then you have David Phelps and Trevor Richards, who have been walking a ton of guys over this stretch, but being successful at keeping those runners from scoring — largely because of strikeouts — which causes separation between their ERA and FIP as well.
That all said, the Jays' strand rate (LOB%) of 85% was the highest in baseball over this stretch, partly because their BABIP was third lowest. Not every pitcher's strand rate will regress to the mean over time (league average is 72% this year), but usually it's high strikeout pitchers that do a better job of that. So, yeah, there's definitely luck involved here. It's just, like I say, not purely luck, because there is some contact management ability in there. (Also, the Jays use late inning defensive replacements pretty regularly, so that's maybe a factor that could suggest their ERA or strand rate over this span is a little more "real," but I think that's probably a small factor.
Bottom line: I don't think their good run of great ERA is sustainable, but it's probably not quite as unsustainable as their high FIP makes it look. And, unfortunately, I don't think there's a very good catch-all number for assessing a bullpen as a unit. Or relievers in general, really. There be luck dragons throughout these seas!
Let’s just please hope that the strikeouts tick back up for Mayza, Garcia, and Anthony Bass, and that maybe the Jays can actually get something out of their lottery tickets like Nate Pearson, Julian Merryweather, Yosver Zulueta, etc. That’s going to be what makes the difference for this ‘pen, I think.
Other Saturday thoughts…
• Santiago Espinal, Alejandro Kirk, and Jackie Bradley Jr. hitting doubles off of Gerrit Cole fastballs? You love to see it. Particularly when, a) Kirk’s and Bradley’s were RBI doubles, and, b) when everybody — myself included — groaned when it was announced that JBJ was in the lineup, and that Lourdes Gurriel Jr. was also getting the day off.
• The load management stuff feels silly sometimes, I know, but I think I’d have a harder time with it if it was ever something fans were upset about after the game, rather than just before.
• A bit of a scare in the second inning of this one, when Matt Chapman caught a Gerrit Cole fastball on the back of the shoulder. It looked at first that it might have hit him on the helmet, but fortunately he was able to duck away just in time. Just pointing this out for no reason in particular.
Up: Sunday: Alek Manoah roasting Gerrit Cole
Sunday’s 4-2 loss in the series finale left a bitter taste in the mouths of a lot of Jays fans, myself included, as the team definitely let a winnable game slip through their fingers.
After a hard-fought afternoon of chasing the lead, the Jays should have put themselves in position to win this one in the top of the seventh. They managed to claw their way back into a tie game thanks to some great at-bats and some perfectly executed strategy from the dugout. But a couple of poor bases-loaded at-bats from Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. meant that they failed to make the breakthrough that they needed, and all it took was one mistake pitch from Adam Cimber in the next frame to effectively put this one out of reach.
As I was saying above, it shouldn’t tarnish what was a great series for this team. But… well… the thing is, the difference between being eight games back of New York at this stage (which they are) and being six games back (which they would have been if they’d completed the sweep) is pretty massive. Because of that, and because of how close they’d come to pulling off a sweep, some of Jays Twitter’s worst tendencies started to seep out in the aftermath of this one.
But then, in one fell swoop, Alek Manoah put everything right again by offering up what might be the quote of the year. Gerrit Cole transformed from mere crybaby pisspants into full-on villain. And, though it didn’t exactly need it, the rivalry between these two teams — which has one more series left to go, at the end of next month — got a bit of extra juice.
Before we get to that, we must first back up.
The tidy line — two runs (one earned) on four hits, two walks, and one HBP, with eight strikeouts — belied the fact that Alek Manoah battled throughout this one. He was pitching from behind a lot. Pitching with runners on. The horizontal break on his slider was three inches less than his season average. As we've said maybe a little too frequently as this season has worn on, he didn't have his best stuff. But, as always, he kept his team in it and gave them a bunch of innings.
As Manoah was nearing the end of his day, in the bottom of the fifth, he ran into a bit of trouble. With one out and the Yankees up 2-1, Andrew Benintendi — who two innings later would crush an Adam Cimber meatball to plate the game-winning RBI — smacked a double on a 2-1 fastball. Up walked Aaron Judge.
Judge had come to the place twice already, and twice Manoah had started him off exactly the same way — a "sinker" up and it.
Third time, what does he go to? Sinker up and in.
This time it hits him. Judge is calm, but looks upset — likely more at the lack of opportunity to put a swing on the ball than anything about malicious intent on Manoah’s part. There’s a brief moment of tension as we all wonder what these two huge slabs of meat might do, and what on earth that would even look like.
And in this moment, rising from his diaper, was Gerrit Cole.
Did it matter to Cole that this was a clear first-pitch strategy that Manoah was employing? No. Did it matter to Cole that it would be stupid of Manoah to put on an extra runner in the fifth inning of a one-run game? No.
Did it matter to Cole that Judge and Manoah kept it cool? No.
Did it matter to Cole that Judge himself was telling him to calm down? No.
Did it matter to Cole that literally one day earlier he’d hit Matt Chapman with an entirely similar pitch? No.
Why did that not matter to Cole? Because it allowed him to do his favourite thing: throw a little tantrum.
“Aaron got hit and we’ve been dusted several times,” said Cole to reporters when asked about the incident after the game. “Just one too many for my taste.”
Manoah spoke to reporters afterwards as well. Though he was mostly focussed on Judge during the near-melee, apparently he noticed how upset Cole was.
He noticed something else about Cole, too.
"Been struggling with my sinker for about five or six starts now. I made a pitch and obviously hit Judge. I looked at him and said, 'I'm not trying to do that.' I think he understood that," Manoah first explained. He then added, "And I think if Gerrit wants to do something he can walk past the Audi sign next time."
LMAOOOOOOOOOOO. Owned.
About that seventh inning…
The Jays began the seventh inning still down 2-1, but facing a new pitcher after being maddeningly neutralized by left-hander Nestor Cortes all day. Jonathan Loaisiga came in to face Bo Bichette leading things off, and quickly gave up a singled flared to right. Matt Chapman hit a rocket to third base on the first pitch he saw, but managed to get down the line fast enough to turn it into a fielder's choice, with Bo being forced out at second. Whit Merrifield then saw five sinkers, only one of which was in the zone, and took a walk down to first base. And at that point things got interesting.
Partly because Cortes was a left-hander, the right-handed hitting Santiago Espinal had started the game at second base, while the lefty Cavan Biggio spent the first part of the day on the bench. With Cortes out and the right-handed Loaisiga in, Jays manager John Schneider decided to pinch hit Biggio for Espinal — seemingly to get himself a lefty-righty matchup.
Boone waited for Biggio to be announced into the game, and knowing that he had left-hander Wandy Peralta warm in the 'pen, decided to swing the matchup back in his favour by pulling Loaisiga.
This was a risk, but a calculated one.
The ball was then in Schneider's court: Let Biggio hit? Burn him immediately, send up Danny Jansen, and play the rest of the game without a backup catcher? Or burn him to send up Springer with runners at first and second and only one out?
Schneider, seemingly, had to think about this for all of about a second.
Up went Springer, who smashed the first pitch he saw into left field for a single. Unfortunately, he hit it so hard that Chapman was forced to stop at third. Jackie Bradley Jr. worked a walk to tie the game. Then Lourdes and Vlad each had a chance to break it open with the bases loaded. Neither was able to. Both at-bats looked ugly, but failure has a tendency to not look great. Baseball is hard. C'est la vie.
Other notes
• Cortes on Sunday allowed just three hits and a walk to the Blue Jays, who continue to confound when it comes to hitting left-handed pitching. A right-handed heavy lineup such as theirs should be terrifying to lefties, and yet this season they’ve been in the middle of the pack in terms of wRC+ against them despite being very difficult to strike out, as you can see in the following data from Props.cash — player prop research made easy!
• I was hopeful that the Jays would continue their more recent trend against left-handers in the finale, but I guess you’ve got to tip your cap to Cortes. Or to the luck dragons. The Jays' five hardest hit balls against Cortes all came off the bat at more than 100 mph, only one had an expected batting average below .410, and all five went for outs. Ugh.
• As I mentioned above, the Jays will face the Yankees again in late September — Monday the 26th through Wednesday the 28th to be precise, at the start of their final homestand of the year. New York’s lead in the AL East is substantial at the moment, but even though Sunday was disappointing, it’s worth noting where the Jays’ schedule takes them next. After an off day on Monday, they'll head to Boston for three, then come home and face the Angels and Cubs for three each. Over the Labour Day weekend they'll be in Pittsburgh, then it's four in Baltimore, and three in Texas. The Orioles series will be tricky, of course. And the others aren't slam dunk victories by any means either. But there's a chance to gain some ground there.
• The Yankees face the Mets for two at the start of this week, then go on an Oakland-Anaheim-Tampa road trip, then come home for four with the Twins and three with the Rays. Should be an interesting next few weeks!
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‘Rising from his diaper’. Sheer brilliance.
I always picture the OG Oompa Loompas dancing to the Apple TV block commercial music. And they gave the Yankee beat writer time in the booth, shoulda had Shi Davidi in their for equal representation. From chatty abundance of commentators, the horribly simple graphics, the obscuring the game we're watching for highlights and interviews, cameras consistently overexposed etc etc...eveything about Apple TV MLB sucks. Like the Yankees.