Are the Blue Jays in for a trade dud-line day??
On where the Jays stand, plus Today in MLBTR: on Juan Soto, Gabriel Moreno, Sean Murphy, Shane Bieber, Frankie Montas, Josh Hader, Shohei Ohtani, Scott Effross, Marlins relievers, and more!
Ross Atkins has a needle to thread, maybe more so than the other GMs of teams shopping at the top end of this year’s deadline trade market. The Jays' farm system is in fair shape, but after landing José Berríos last summer and Matt Chapman last winter, it would obviously be tough for them to part with the kind of a package that sent Luis Castillo to the Mariners — if other teams even believe they're capable of matching a package like that.
Then there's the vaccination issue. Nick and I talked a bunch about Tyler Mahle of the Reds as a good fit on yesterday's podcast, only to be reminded after it went up that he missed the Reds' series in Toronto in May because he can't get into Canada. Whoops! And there are, of course, others who will be off-limits to the Jays and the Jays only.
Atkins often talks about the importance having alternatives on the player procurement front. To be so limited must be incredibly frustrating for him and the rest of the Jays' front office. And it means that they may have to be in on players they might not be as interested in as ones that are available to other teams.
The standings affect the calculations Atkins will be making in the next few hours as well.
Will the Blue Jays really go as hard after a player as the Yankees, Astros, or Dodgers, when those teams — as near locks to get byes into the second round of the playoffs — have so much clearer paths to the World Series?
Will the combination of a somewhat thin farm system and having to pay a can-play-in-Canada premium make the difference-making options too unpalatable?
Is deadline day going to be more of a dud-line day?
Possibly, I suppose. But an outcome like that sure wouldn’t make any sense to me.
On Monday morning, MLB.com's Mike Petriello laid out succinctly and rather perfectly why the standings could impel the Jays to go big, despite the obstacles they face — and despite the weird sense some fans are getting that nothing big is about to happen.
In the new playoff format, the two division winners with the best records each get a bye into the ALDS. The third division winner — this year almost certainly whoever comes out of the AL Central — will host the third wild card team in a best-of-three series to determine who will go on to face the number two seed. The top wild card team will host the other wild card team to determine who will face the top seed in the other ALDS.
As things currently stand, the Twins would host the Rays for the right to play the Astros, and the Blue Jays would host the Mariners for the right to play the Yankees.
The Jays may not see a ton value in selling the farm to try to catch the Yankees, but Mike’s tweet is a good reminder that staying ahead of the Mariners is incredibly important. And if the Mariners are as desperate as they are to take that position away from the Jays, why wouldn’t the Jays be just as desperate to protect it? They are, after all, massively invested in this season already.
The value that comes from free agent contracts tilts heavily toward the first years of multi-year deals. Teams give players term that they’d rather not give in order to capture players at their most productive. So the idea that the Jays would simply coast to the finish line when they’re in year two of George Springer’s $25 million AAV deal, year one of Kevin Gausman’s $22 million AAV deal, and year one of José Berríos’s $18.7 million AAV extension would be borderline criminal.
Not to mention the fact that they paid Hyun Jin Ryu a ton of money to help get them to this point. Or that Matt Chapman, Teoscar Hernández, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. are only here for one more year after this one. Or that they’re paying Yusei Kikuchi $16 million this season on a front-loaded deal. Or that the clock is already ticking on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, who each only have three years of club control left after this one.
It will be tricky, yes. But desperation often dictates which teams end up with which players — as we saw with the Mariners and Castillo, and with the Jays’ capitulation to Scott Boras on a fourth year for Hyun Jin Ryu — and the idea that the Jays aren’t desperate to make the most of the huge opportunity in front of them here is bizarre to me.
Beyond that, not only would doing little-to-nothing send the wrong message to the team, and the wrong message to the fans, it would also be a terrible business move! I can assure you, as someone who bought season tickets for stupid 2017 in order to get access to 2016 playoff tickets, home playoff dates mean a whole lot more for the bottom line than just gate receipts.
So strap in! And if they don’t do anything, then get weird about it. OK?
Today in MLBTR
The clock continues to tick on MLB front offices that want to improve their teams — or throw in the towel — before the trade deadline passes at 6 PM ET on Tuesday. Here's the latest that's out there as of 2:30 PM ET-ish on Monday afternoon, much of it via the always invaluable MLB Trade Rumors...
• Apparently the Juan Soto situation is responsible for the stasis currently being experienced at the top of the trade market. MLBTR’s latest on Soto notes that teams who still think they have a chance to land him are being understandably reluctant to start offering key pieces to that potential deal for guys like, say, Frankie Montas.
• ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote at length about just the Soto market, and both Ctrl+F “Toronto” and Ctrl+F “Blue Jays” turn up nothing. It’s fun to think of the Jays as a dark horse for this one, but — to use another horse idiom (and also type the word “horse” at least three more times than is necessary in a baseball rumour post) — as I’ve written before, I’m not sure they have the horses. Gabriel Moreno is an outstanding prospect and would get any team’s attention, but with Keibert Ruiz already in Washington there just can’t possibly be nearly as much appeal (unless we’re talking about some kind of a wacky three-team trade). Pipe dream!
• Speaking of Moreno, he’s certainly a tempting trade chip for Jays fans, but I keep going back and forth on whether I think the front office would actually be all that serious about including him in a deal for anyone other than a Soto- or Ohtani-level talent. I know the Jays love Danny Jansen, I know flags fly forever, but as much as it’s best to let prospects go lightly, it could be pretty tough to look back in three or four years and think, “Wow, they traded an All-Star catcher for a couple years of a pitcher because they really liked the oft-injured guy who inexplicably hit at a 48 home run pace for 50 games between a couple IL stints and an offseason”? Like I say, these next few hours are going to be mighty tricky!
• On the catching front, however, something’s gotta give. Not necessarily now, but certainly in the offseason. The Athletic’s Keith Law released his mid-season top 60 prospects list here on Monday, and somewhat scornfully ranked Moreno number five. “There’s no real reason for Moreno to be on this list, when he should be in the majors,” Law writes.
• Theoretically related here, MLBTR looked at a recent report that the Guardians and A’s have talked about Oakland catcher Sean Murphy. Cleveland’s best catcher by fWAR this season has been Luke Maile, so I think it’s safe to say they need help behind the plate. Murphy, who isn’t a free agent until after 2025, fits their m.o., but so would Moreno — or any of the other Jays catchers, I suppose. Yes, I’m still dreaming on Shane Bieber here. And yes, I know it’s not going to happen. Still, there could be a fit there with one of Cleveland’s other starters in some kind of a package. Also worth noting, though, is that it’s pointed out in the piece that one of the reasons Oakland may be comfortable moving Murphy — other than the fact that they’re a garbage franchise whose only current goal is to steal public money to build a new stadium — is the fact that they obtained Triple-A catching prospect Stephen King’s Shea Langeliers in the Matt Olson trade. Frankie Montas really shouldn’t cost the Jays a guy like Moreno anyway, but maybe Oakland wouldn’t even be all that interested.
• Then again, back on Saturday I mentioned Jeff Blair’s suggestion that there are teams that see Moreno moving out from behind the plate — a move that would be odd given how tough it is to find genuine catching talent, but that speaks to just how much belief there is in his bat. Maybe that changes things! And maybe I should stop talking about a prospect that likely isn’t going to get traded anyway!
• Speaking of Montas, in a piece from Sunday night, the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal confirmed what MLB.com’s Jon Morosi had tweeted earlier in the day, which is that the Jays are one of a handful of teams that are in on the A’s right-hander. Or at least were, one of those teams — which Ken identified as the Padres, Twins, Yankees, and Jays. However, apparently the A’s have started informing teams that they’re out on Montas. The Twins are one of the teams that have been so informed.
• Somewhat curiously, timing-wise, not long after it was reported that Oakland was telling teams they wouldn’t get Montas, the Padres made a wild and enormous move, adding Josh Hader (!!?!) in a deal with the Brewers.
• Could the Jays have found a way to add Hader? Not likely, if the cost was immediate relief help for the Brewers. Tim Mayza is probably not moving that needle.
• The fact that San Diego still has several excellent prospects left means that we can’t just assume it’s down to the Yankees and the Jays for Montas, but it’s interesting to think of, isn’t it? I’ve said several times that a guy like Montas is something of a luxury for the Jays. Keeping him away from the Yankees isn’t though!
• In completely unsurprising news, the Angels have decided to keep Shohei Ohtani, rather than move him at this time. Smart of them to take one more crack with him next year, and then move him at the deadline if it doesn’t work out. Hey, just like the Jays did with Josh Donaldson in 2018!
• The Yankees have added Scott Effross, a sidearming right-hander with a bunch of years of control, from the Cubs. Triple-A starter Hayden Wesneski goes the other way, and has already slotted in as the number eight prospect for Chicago, per MLB Pipeline. Effross has some real swing-and-miss and could have been of use to the Jays, though I’m not sure how great an idea it is to have a bullpen with both him and Adam Cimber in it, so maybe this was simply not meant to be.
• The Marlins’ bullpen is reportedly drawing interest, as the seem to be moving firmly into the “sellers” camp. Former Blue Jay Anthony Bass could be of interest, though MLBTR’s Steve Adams suggests that lefty closer Tanner Scott would be the prize acquisition. Despite difficulties with command, Scott has some very real swing-and-miss stuff. I think I’d prefer raiding the Tigers bullpen, personally, but this could work!
• Related to the Sean Murphy stuff above: former Blue Jays catcher Beau Taylor has signed a minor league deal with the A’s, giving them a bit of depth — presumably in case Langeliers gets promoted to the big club in order to take Murphy’s spot.
• Well this sure would add an interesting dimension to the Jays-Mariners race: apparently Seattle is one of the teams interested in adding Brandon Drury from the Reds.
• Obvious one here, and has been mentioned before, but apparently the Jays are in the mix for the Pirates’ José Quintana. He seems to be everybody’s fallback in case they don’t land the starter they actually want, so… yeah.
• Lastly, don’t forget that Nick and I changed our deadline day plans yesterday, and now will be coming at you live with our next Blue Jays Happy Hour at 6:30 PM ET on Tuesday — a half hour after the deadline passes, when (hopefully) all the last-minute deals have trickled in and everybody is bored of TV talking heads repeating themselves about the earlier deals!
Be sure to follow us on Callin so you can listen in, drop us a question in the chat, or give us a call!
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And the Yankees get Montas and Trevino. Our players will be pissed if we don’t do something! It always seems that they never have to give up as much to get what we want.