Atkins Speaks: Heeeere's Ross!

As in: He's still here!?!?

Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins met with reporters on the field at Rogers Centre prior to Thursday’s game, and while I recognize that a great many Jays fans have completely tuned this man out at this stage, and would much prefer to spend their time inventing and extrapolating meaning from an utterly benign Bo Bichette quote and then freaking out about it, I still find these a fascinating window into the mind of the person in charge of the team and the organization itself.

I suppose, then, that you know what’s coming next.

Below is a full download of Atkins’ touching base with reporters for the benefit of all us stakeholders, including his thoughts on proactive solutioning and core competencies. Plus my thoughts and various dumb quips! If you don’t have the bandwidth for it at the moment I’m sure we’ll all have time to circle back and reflect after his eventual involuntary career event.

It’s time for Atkins Speaks!…

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What will tell you if you're buyers or sellers at the upcoming trade deadline?

Yeah, we've obviously put ourselves into a tough spot over the last seven days. Ten days ago we were feeling like there was positive momentum, and that has gone away. So, you know, at this point, because we've put ourselves into a tough spot we really need to—at a day at a time, and one pitch at a time—get things turned around to be in a position to buy. Having said that, that's where we're focused. We're focused on improvement, we're focused on getting better. You know, the fact that we are in this position squarely lies with me, I'm accountable for that. And all of our energy and focus is on just improvement and getting better with the group that's here.

A strong beginning for Ross here, as he dutifully checks off all the boxes he was likely given during prep. Even the one marked “accountability,” which I’m totally sure is going to satisfy all the folks that like to incoherently shout about it, as if they could tell you what they’d actually want to see by way of him taking accountability that doesn’t ultimately amount to him (figuratively) reaching for R. Budd Dwyer’s bagged lunch as the cameras roll.

They want him to fire himself on the spot, I mean. Anything less wouldn’t meet their definition of accountability.

It reminds me of the way fans will go on about “no playoff wins” as if getting bounced 2-1 instead of 2-0 by the Mariners in 2022 would have made the slightest difference to people who really just want to shout “BAH I’M MAD!” Which at this point is a fair enough sentiment on its own, I think.

Anyway! I’ve lost my focus early here, it seems. This should be about how Ross is bad, not how fans are annoying. Moving on…

Why should fans have faith?

Yeah, I think a couple of things. Like, you know, the biggest thing is the success they've had in the past. Many of them together—staff, players—all the way from the minor leagues, and over the last four years.

The other reason is the *COUGH* belief that things can get turned around. We do have good pitching and defence, and we've shown signs of our offence turning around. There's been really some positive highlights, individually. But not good enough, from a team standpoint. And then, you know, the belief and...—historically these guys have been very good, individually. And a lot of them together. So, having said that, we recognize the frustration, and recognize...—we share that frustration. And need to get that turned around, one pitch at a time, one day at a time, but now.

First of all, the cough in there was absolutely perfect. Impeccable comedic timing. Meaningless, to be clear. But incredibly funny.

Beyond that it feels like Ross is trying really hard to stay positive while adding in kernels of what he—or the organization as a whole—thinks fans want to hear. The approach is understandable but that is a very tough needle to thread, and feels especially futile when most fans seem to have lost any sense of goodwill for the people running this team. Plus, it’s hard to gain back credibility while simultaneously saying things like “we do have good pitching” about a team that ranks 20th in ERA, 28th in FIP, and dead last in home runs allowed per nine innings.

It’s also like… yeah, we know you bought into the track record! Or at least the track record up to last season. Which kind of isn’t buying the track record at all, is it?

And while I completely get that there was little sense in eating a ton of money to move Springer last winter, or dealing Alejandro Kirk at what the club wrongly hoped was the nadir of his value, choosing not to augment this lineup with guys who can hit the ball out of the ballpark —even if the players added may be value-positive ones—is kinda the elephant in the room here.

If you're going to be trading at the deadline will help coming back for next year important for you?

Well, we're always focused on winning. Um, you know, we—right now our focus is on the '24 team. And with every decision that you make, um, regardless of stadium renovation or the state of your organization, you have to be thinking about the future as well. But, as you've seen over the last four years, we've poured a lot into the current situ—the current team. From a financial standpoint, from a trade standpoint, from a resource standpoint, and we'll continue to do that until it doesn't make sense to do so anymore.

I’ve paraphrased what was a particularly slick question from Richard Griffin here, which attempted to get Ross to shed light on whether the team is thinking about a rebuild or just a retool, and get some sense of the timeline in their minds, without bluntly asking all that in a way that would immediately get shut down. Unfortunately, it didn’t work and all we’re given is essentially: “We may or may not pivot in some way or another.”

If you don't trade your impending free agents how do you make future contention sustainable?

Has to be from within, and...—has to be something that we continue to build from within, and...—think about potential extensions, think about—you always have to factor in creative ways to make your team better. And, you know, it's not an easy path, by any means, but we do believe that a lot of the work that has gone into this organization for many years, that there's... reason to believe that we continue to improve. There's a lot of things to build on from a resource standpoint, and good players here, and we'll cross that bridge when we get there. But right now we're focused on the next couple of weeks.

WE'RE CROSSING OUR FINGERS PLEASE STOP ASKING ME ABOUT THIS!

Are you and Mark on the same page and do you feel you have supportive ownership?

Yes.

Easy layup.

What has to happen for you to believe that you can change things in the second half? Get to .500 first? Within a couple games of a Wild Card spot?

Yeah, I mean, it's interesting. There really isn't an equation for that that we've...—we need to go day by day. And continue to be prepared to pivot in either direction, which... I would be saying the same thing if you asked me the same question if we were 20 games above .500, you just wouldn't be asking that question because it would be very unlikely for that to happen.

You know, our pro scouting department, all of baseball operations, spends a lot of time understanding the entire industry in any way that we need to move. So, you know, right now, all of our energy and focus is on the next, you know, few weeks, and several weeks. We've put ourselves into a tough spot, but we're going to try to correct it.

So here Atkins finally says—before walking it back somewhat—the really obvious thing that he’s been trying to avoid saying, which is that they’re not as wholly focused on winning and the next few weeks as he keeps insisting. Because of course they’re not! How utterly insane would it be if they waited three weeks, decided to pivot, and then had to be like, “Welp, I guess we should start looking into the trade market then.”

It makes no sense, though I understand why he wants to avoid it. The early spectre of a deadline sell-off, even if it’s just pending free agents, is not exactly what you want when you are functionally in the hope-selling business. But people aren’t blind to what the situation is here. We don’t need to do this!

How realistic is it to correct things with the number of injuries you have?

Yeah, we feel it's realistic, it's just we acknowledge the difficult nature of it.

Obviously the losses of Jordan Romano and Yimi García have been major, but… uh… I don’t think I’d say injuries are the thing that’s mostly holding this team back.

Anyway, this feels unnaturally concise for Atkins. This is, at its core, I think all that he really wants to say to these questions.

What were you expecting to turn around that hasn't yet?

Yeah, I just expected us to score more runs. I think everyone in the building did. And we need to figure out why that didn't happen. 

Wait until the the seats fill up with fans, then try telling me everyone in the building thought this team would score more runs.

Not great for consumer confidence when every dumbass with a loud take—and plenty of smart folks, too—is validated by your underperforming team that no one ever really believed in, my man. You’re supposed to be the smart ones!

What answers have you come to so far on that?

That's where all of our energy has been for, you know, really over the last six months. And continues to be there. Our players have been incredible throughout the process—our staff as well.

THE PROCESS OF THEIR BEING TERRIBLE???

There's been no excuse-making, no finger-pointing. All solution-focused. And that's not that common, when times...—when we are not realizing our potential and have had a lot of frustration. They've just turned it into solutions. Or looking for them.

OK, first of all, the last six months? It’s been over a year, man. And the “solution” you should have been “focused” on was injecting this lineup with more power last winter.

Second of all, it really seems like you know an awful lot about times when your team isn’t reaching its potential and is having a lot of frustration, eh Ross? *COUGH*

Thirdly, I absolutely love that he had to add “or looking for them” at the end there, as though he realized in the moment that he’d be excoriated for implying that solutions have been found. Ughhhhhhhh. WE HAVE FUN!

How do you look at the value of a low probability 2024 run, versus collecting assets for the future?

Yeah, I mean, it's... um... there's so many variables, right? For every team, for every market. Every situation is different. And then you peel back the layers to the individual, and if you—once you factor in those things, then you can start to form your strategy. And we're prepared to take two different angles, and understand...—or, really, three. But the coming days are exceptionally important to us, and, you know, understanding the market is also exceptionally important to us, in either way. So, you know, we're focused on winning, we're focused on building the best possible team we can this year, supporting the best possible way we can, and if we get to a point where we need to adjust, we'll be prepared to do so.

“We are preparing to do whatever makes the most sense to do at the point when we have to decide what to do, which is not now.”

Can you take lessons from 2017 and '18 into this trade deadline?

Yeah, it's interesting. As you...—you know, there’s...—you look at successful organizations that have gone through five- and six-year rebuild processes or timelines. And we made the decisions in '15-'16, you know, coming into the '16 season, not to do that. And '16 was a successful year, and then tried to continue that based on a very strong roster. And it didn't work. And we weren't as successful as we hoped to be. Pivoted to making some trades, were able to, in three years, turn things around into a winning team and sustain that for four. Still feel like this is a good group that we'll continue to build upon. You know, the lessons that we've learned aren't as specific to the question that you ask, and I think they're a little bit more nuanced, and maybe for another day to talk about.

It really felt like Ross was on his way to saying something interesting here, either by talking about his philosophy of rebuilding, or by admitting that they only sustained success in this era for four years, but then something snapped and he went right back on the defensive and into we love our guys mode.

Had he done so, I wouldn’t feel as inclined to point out that it’s complete bullshit that they weren’t absolutely already eyeing a rebuild when they begrudgingly made a half-assed go of it in 2016 and ‘17. Or that it’s simply not true that the trades they then made set the foundation for future success, rather than mostly just being an excuse to save Rogers a bunch of money.

I mean, yes, Teoscar Hernández was an important part of the team when it was good (I wonder what ever happened to that guy?), and turning the 11th overall pick from 2019 into Alek Manoah was big, but the list of layabouts and crumbums that churned through this organization in those days is looooong.

What are the three possibilities you mentioned earlier?

Well, it's just so dependent upon where we are as a team. And what, you know...—how I think people define "buy" and "sell." I didn't want to state it as it would be that black or white. So, some alternative to something that people would perceive as black or white.

So there’s selling. There’s buying. And there is, I guess, the hybrid thing where maybe you move some guys, but maybe you also acquire some. I’m not sure how that would play out, or whether a team that has rarely expressed a ton of creativity outside of maybe the Chad Green contract would actually go for a scheme like that. Possible, though, I guess. And I also guess it would qualify as “some alternative to something that people would perceive as black or white,” since apparently we have to play word games about it.

Does anything about this season change the way you look at 2025?

You know, everything...—we learn from every day. You know. So... and every week. And we'll continue to do that. But there's not one thing that you're saying OK, we need to pivot based on what we thought would be happening.

So regardless of what happens at this deadline and in the last month you're...?

Yeah, we're focused on building around the team that is here and the...—you know, a lot of emphasis and focus falls on our offence at this point, but it's really around focusing on making the best possible team that we can, and continuing to extend that window as long as we can.

Folks, I don’t think he’s gonna say they’re rebuilding. (Because they’re probably not.)

You wouldn't want to take a step back in '25?

I would just repeat all the same things I just said.

Ross? Repeat himself???

Why hasn't the offence found themselves on a run?

(Sighing) Yeah, it's interesting. It's like, we've seen some encouraging signs. There's been some individuals that have performed really well, at their projections, and some even above. And we've had some decent contributions from our system and players coming up recently. And we just haven't been able to get it to all click—to turn into run-scoring at a level that is where we need it to be. And that's where all of our energy is focused on.

MATE, YOU'RE PLAYING IN THE TOUGHEST OFFENSIVE ENVIRONMENT TO STRING HITS TOGETHER IN SINCE 1968—A YEAR SO BAD FOR HITTING THAT THEY SUBSEQUENTLY LOWERED THE MOUND AND SHRUNK THE STRIKE ZONE—AND YOU'RE 26TH IN HOME RUNS. YOU KNOW WHAT THE DANG PROBLEM IS.

YOU WERE ALSO JUST FUNDAMENTALLY UNPREPARED FOR THE WAY THE GAME CHANGED ON THIS FRONT, WHICH IS MAYBE THE BIGGEST INDICTMENT OF THIS REGIME ONE COULD LEVEL. ONLY ONE OF THE TOP EIGHT AL TEAMS BY RECORD IS IN THE BOTTOM HALF OF THE LEAGUE BY HOME RUNS (KANSAS CITY, 17TH), AND THEY’RE CLINGING BY A THREAD. AND THE SAME GOES FOR ONLY ONE OF THE TOP SEVEN IN THE NL (ST. LOUIS, 22ND). WHY AM I SHOUTING?

Has the process or philosophy changed recently?

It has changed. We changed it significantly from last year to this year, in personnel and process, and certainly in delivery. And we've talked a lot about that, and individualizing that information to the best of our ability for every pitcher and every hitter.

Feel really good about Don Mattingly's experiences, his experience, his content. The history that Guillermo Martinez has with these players being successful. We understand we're not successful enough right now. Matt Hague having incredible content and knowledge of the players that are coming up from the system. And Hunter Mense, who's been with these players all the way through the minor league system with John Schneider.

So, we feel like our content and the relationships, and the communications, and the process is strong. We acknowledge that it's not working to its full extent. And the way we've tried to adjust it is by asking for feedback from our players—and we're constantly trying to learn from the industry. And learn any way that we can, whether that be from research and development or scouting expertise. Obviously with dialogue across the industry. But the biggest adjustments we've made this year is from downloading from our players things that they feel would be more helpful, and we've done that.

So… that’s a no on changing the philosophy? Cool cool cool cool.

Ahh, but it’s a yes on more corporate jargon that’s only going to piss off the many, many “please PR better to me” types out there. Content? His content?? Downloading??

Man alive. I mean, I could really not care less about this stuff, personally. But a lot of people very much do, and communicating to them and earning their respect is a huge part of the job. People don’t follow sports so they can feel like they’re in a work meeting!

Also, I desperately need to know how the feedback from players was gathered. LMAO PLEASE FILL OUT THIS DETAILED SURVEY SO WE CAN SERVE YOU BETTER.

How long are you prepared to wait until things start getting better?

Yeah, I mean, we're focused on this group right now being together. We're focused on the solutions. We recognize that we don't have much time left.

Is seeing other teams that had slow starts coming around an encouragement to you?

Yeah, the Mets, the Cardinals, the Astros. There have been some teams that have recently—just 10, 15 days ago—were not in the positions that they are in. And that happens across baseball. You look to the World Series of last year and there—we still feel like this is a team that, if we can get into the playoffs, is built well for it, with our ability to make consistent contact, play great defence, and have good pitching. You know, very hopeful to get Jordan Romano and Yimi García back into the fold into our bullpen. And, you know, have a little bit of depth in our system as well to support us. So we'll keep focusing on getting the thing turned around.

Home runs are actually more valuable in the playoffs, but whatever. It’s not like that’s gonna matter this year!

And, man, I love how people genuinely think the problem with this team is that it’s run by a bunch of analytics eggheads who only know spreadsheets when, in reality, they’re built specifically so that septuagenarian Buck Martinez won’t roast them on TV every night.

In hindsight did you focus too much on run prevention this winter?

Yeah. You know, I don't know. It's really about your alternatives, and what was there for you, and how you could...—we tried to acquire the best players for our team that we could given the resources we had. We were in on different shapes of position players that were more offensive or more defensive, and we just tried to build the best team that we possibly could.

I think it’s true that the market didn’t necessarily offer ideal solutions to the Jays’ problems this winter, but that doesn’t mean they had their priorities right or should have been as willing as they were to settle for the shapes of production that they did. And that’s not even just with respect to defence versus offence. J.D. Martinez would have looked a whole lot better in this lineup than Justin Turner has, even if Turner has, outside of his awful May, been pretty decent.

As for the actual question here, I think it’s been answered very clearly by the fact that we’re seeing unplanned defensive downgrades like Vlad at third, Spencer Horwitz at second, and a ton of Davis Schneider in the outfield.

I mean, as you know, there were players that we were going after that we weren't able to acquire, but we were excited about the acquisitions, remain excited, and have had some good results from some of them.

When Ross starts making references to Ohtani…

Are more teams reaching out asking about players than in previous seasons?

It's always, at this time of the year, downloading and asking questions about where the alternatives could be, how we could help one another make each organization better. You know, we have not received multiple, or many calls, or a significant number of calls asking for our players that are on short contracts. It's more just downloading where we are from a strategy standpoint.

OK, which of you jokers taught him to use “downloading” this way? STOP IT!

Do you think the farm system is good enough for sustainable winning?

Yeah, it has to—we have to have good stories coming from our farm system. We have to have players that make positive strides. We've had a couple of those in the past year, and they're here now in Davis Schneider and Addison Barger and Spencer Horwitz. And Nate Pearson's been encouraging. But we need that to happen again.

Say what you want about the quality of the farm system and the Jays’ recent drafting—for example, “horrible!”—I don’t think the current lack of top-end talent that pushes it down the rankings necessarily means it the system can’t still be the foundation of a very strong team that can win consistently for a long time. Particularly if it’s a team that has money to bring in and retain top-end talent. If it’s merely producing everyday big leaguers instead of stars, that’s probably OK. But it has to pretty continuously do that, with the odd star mixed in every once in a while.

What do your projection models say about the possibilities for this team this year?

Yeah, right now the projections aren't great. We've dug ourselves a hole. We acknowledge that hole, and I'm accountable for that, but also right now we're in the position to focus our energy on one day at a time. We understand that needs to turn into a streak for us to be back in it. Doesn't mean we have to win every game, but we do need to play a lot better and win more games.

The building superintendent on One Day at a Time was named Schneider. Makes you think, doesn’t it?

How far off the offensive projections you had for this group has the performance been?

I haven't thought about it that way. I would have to get back to on something, to answer it more specifically. But, you know, we clearly haven't scored enough.

All you really have to do is look at who's current production is way behind their rest-of-season projections to get a sense of how to answer this one. As a larf I just did that with George Springer, and it turns out that his going 6-for-9 with three homers in his last three games has only taken his wRC+ up to 80 on the season. Truly the darkest timeline.

At some point do you say these aren't good hitters?

Yeah. Not any time soon. We believe in these hitters. Yeah, we believe in these players. They have proven track records. And a lot of good signs recently. You know, I don't want to assume who you are referring to. If there's players you want to talk about specifically, I think there's a lot of good signs that we've seen recently.

Yeah… I’m pretty sure the GM that acquired all these hitters and banked his livelihood on these hitters is not going to say that they’re not good hitters. Give him at least a decade or two before expecting that.

Would you be willing to eat money to get talent in return in trades?

Again, all of our energy and focus right now is focused on improving this team. None of it has been spent on that. That's an easy adjustment if we needed to make it.

I know he’s not quite acknowledging that there will be trades yet, but I really would have liked some kind of an emphatic yes here. Pay the freight. Get better prospects with money. Anything else is a gift to the billionaire that owns the team and would, frankly, be more offensive than anything that’s happened this season to date.

I can understand a season not going the way anyone hoped, but I would have a very hard time with a team that’s already committed that money anyway choosing to cheap out on its future when the time to pivot toward next season arrives.

What other things are you trying to do to improve your squad?

Well, you've seen some of them in the positional alignment and the lineup construction, and playing guys in different positions to create different lineups. And we've seen some signs of that improving somewhat—not enough. And we also understand that there's going to be defensive blunders when that happens. So, I think with time there's reason to believe that with Spencer Horwitz playing some second base, and obviously Vladdy's been exposed at third base, that there's different lineup constructions we can have. And then we'll consider the additions in the short-term. But that just hasn't unfolded in a way that made sense for us to date. But those are the ways we can do it outside of continuing to think about how we're supporting our players and putting them in the position to be successful.

Translation: We’re trying to find ways to add offence to the lineup, but we’re stopping short of adding players through trade because that would be absurd.

What other players in the farm system are on the horizon?

Yeah, Leo Jimenez has been incredible. Really encouraged by his process. That's the name that comes to mind right now for the short-term. And then there's guys that have a little time they probably need, but he's in the best position to date.

Bo Bichette has been worth 1.4 fWAR over the last calendar year. Prior to the season, Leo Jimenez was projected by ZiPS to a 0.8 fWAR, and all he's done is gone out and had a career year with the bat—.283/.429/.451, 137 wRC+, 7 HR in 217 PA—at the highest level he's ever been asked to play, while also providing strong shortstop defence.

I'm not sayin’, I'm just sayin’.

At what point do you get away from matchups and just ride the hot hand?

Oh, I think Schneids is doing that. This isn't a matchup equation. I think Schneids just factors in matchup information and then makes decisions based on how his coaches feel, how his players feel, and there's been examples of that recently. And over the course of the year, really.

I like how Ross threw in that last line, though I’m not sure how true it is. Thing is, I’m not sure that it even needs to be true. Playing matchups is a good thing! Often a big part of the reason hitters are getting hot is precisely because they’ve been put into favourable matchups. And, as I wrote back when people were needlessly freaking out about George Springer lingering in the leadoff spot a little too long, game to game the lineup doesn’t really matter anyway.

So you're confident that every lineup is the best it can be?

Yes, I do. There's always the balance of what positions they're playing. Of course, Schneids and his staff are going to factor in who is pitching, what's behind them in the bullpen, what changes would be made, and who's been effective. And you've seen that in the lineup adjustments and where they're hitting in the order. And then, the projections really just comes into guys that have been historically successful. And those guys are going to have longer runways.

All very reasonable stuff. Days off are good and healthy, thinking about matchups and defence is important, you can’t choose when you get hits or who gets them, the team is better off if guys like Springer and Bichette get going, and no amount of lineup optimization was going to fix this offence in the first half. This subject is up there for me with last year’s RISP hang-up as truly one of the most exhausting in recent Blue Jays history.

Are you still comfortable with Vlad at third with the roster how it is now?

With him playing some third? Yeah. Yeah, I think—we haven't needed it recently, the way things have lined up, but I think Vladdy's on board with that, and we've kept that more than alive for him. And that would be something we could pivot to.

Pivot to, perhaps, when Joey Votto arrives? Huh? Huh? Huh?

Hey, and speaking of…

What do you see in the short term for Ricky Tiedemann and Joey Votto?

Ricky T is back in...—or, he's well into his progression, where I think now it will be about getting up to four and five innings and becoming a viable option for us. And Joey we're just taking a day at a time. He's been encouraged and feels really strong, he feels like he's in a good physical position, now he's just trying to get into a good fundamental position.

I hate to say it, but I’ll believe Tiedemann is a viable option when he actually manages to go a few months without getting hurt. As for Votto, I just hope that when he gets to Buffalo it’s during a stretch that has the Bisons playing as many home games as possible. I hold out little hope for what we’re going to get out of Joey Votto, Toronto Blue Jay. But Joey Votto, Buffalo Bison? That’s going to absolutely rip.

Lastly, how does your being accountable manifest itself? What does that mean?

Well, it's just, to me it means that every day I wake up I think about the first thing is that I have to get better, then what I think about is solutions. And ensure that's where our focus is, and that's what our environment is focused on. So, not on finger-pointing, not on excuse-making.

As I said right off the top, the accountability stuff has absolutely no meaning. But more to the point here, Ross, man, if this is true you need to relax. When I wake up the first thing I think about is whether I have to take a piss and the second is if I should go back to sleep. Maybe you should go and brew up a pretend coffee before the pretend self-flagellation begins.

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