Baseball is back (and it was never in doubt)
On an electric season-opening win, including the pitchers' rough day, Bo's throws, attention to detail, a step-by-step breakdown of Kiermaier's run, Varsho, Buck, Atkins, Springer, Vladdy, and more!
When we last saw the Blue Jays in a game that mattered they were on the losing end of an absurd 10-9 loss to the Seattle Mariners back in October. The less we talk about that one the better. But, while the stakes on opening day are nowhere near high enough to make it feel like a similarly absurd 10-9 victory constitutes some kind of karmic justice meted out against the baseball gods, there is a certain deliciousness to it.
The Cardinals deserved to lose on Thursday no more than the Blue Jays did all those months ago. The Jays deserved to win no less than the Mariners did. But they did win. Somebody has to. That’s baseball. And we were treated to an enthralling, heart-stopping afternoon of it.
Ten runs on 19 hits for the Blue Jays. Nine runs on 15 hits for the Cardinals. Both teams came to the plate nine times, and both teams scored in six of those frames. Bloops, blasts, blowups, brain cramps, brilliant catches, baserunning, and everything in between — then several more bloops. It had it all. Even, eventually, mercifully, a shutdown inning of relief work (courtesy Jordan Romano).
I mean… what on earth is this win probability chart!
Like… come on! This isn’t even an opening day stat!
This is the second Blue Jays season in a row to begin with a 10 run performance, though last year the Texas Rangers were only able to score eight runs against them. I guess that means this year’s team is worse, but only slightly.
We’ve only got 161 games left to find out.
Anyway, there is always going to be a lot to say about the first game of the year, let alone when it’s an absolute epic. So let’s talk about this one! Here’s three down, three up…
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Down: Alek Manoah WYD?
Alek Manoah's final line was hardly the most sparkling of his career, to put it politely. It took him 85 pitches to get through just 3 1/3 innings, over which he allowed five earned runs on nine hits, two of which were home runs. Much was made on the Sportsnet TV broadcast, and in certain corners of Twitter, of Manoah’s decision to call his own game using PitchCom…
…and, honestly, I really do hope that was the issue.
At the very least, it sounds as though Manoah is on board with Griff’s suggestion that execution was his problem. After the game he told reporters, including Rob Longley of the Sun, “I didn’t get beat on good pitches I got beat on bad pitches and that’s an easy adjustment.”
Ross Atkins joined the broadcast in the top of the third inning and noted that Manoah has had to adapt to the implementation of the new pitch clock, because “a big part of his game was slowing things down and using that to his advantage.”
I think it’s fair to wonder if adding in the crowd, the occasion, the adrenaline, and having to deal with calling his own pitches electronically made the ticking clock more of a challenge than it had been during the spring. That being said, I’m not sure that the right answer is to immediately go away from PitchCom. I mean, surely he made that decision for a reason.
Either way, Manoah’s right that these ought to be fairly easy adjustments for him to make. I don’t think this outing was a shot across the bow from the regression monster or anything like that. I am, however, slightly concerned about something...
Four of the Cardinals’ batters hit from the left side, and on the day they went 5-for-9 with a walk, a home run, and one strikeout. Three of the four singles Manoah surrendered to those lefties came off the bat at less than 80 mph — it was just that kind of day all around — so I don't want to make too much of this, but that particular split hasn’t been great for him throughout his young career.
Manoah was .100 points of wOBA worse against left-handed hitters last year than against right-handed ones. He wasn’t awful, per se. He ranked 44th of 106 RHP against LHP by wOBA in 2022 (minimum 40 IP in the split). But it’s something that I think will be worth paying attention to going forward. And test case number one didn’t exactly go swimingly.
On the bright side, after a spring where there was some concern about his velocity, he was up a little bit on last year's averages across the board. (During his final spring start he was down more than 2.0 mph on both his four-seamer and sinker. Atkins suggested it was simply that in Dunedin he had been "in a spring training mode" and thinking about the "very heavy haul that he had last year.")
Down: Bullpen stuff
It would be easy to look at the score of this one, roll your eyes, and think, "here we go again with this stupid, awful Blue Jays bullpen." Believe me, I saw plenty of that on Twitter — and the frustration wasn't necessarily unfair, even if that particular characterization of a unit that was 10th best in ERA and 14th in fWAR after the trade deadline was.
But as much as I may tend to be overly willing to defend this group, I understand that it's simply not good enough to say, "well, at least some of them weren't awful!"
Tim Mayza couldn’t get an out, Anthony Bass only got one, Yimi Garcia made it through an inning but allowed two runs on two hits and two walks in the process.
Thing is, days like this happen, as evidenced by the fact that the Cardinals had exactly the same type one. What makes them worse — what makes them snowball — is when the manager, the pitching coach, and whoever else is involved in the “collaborative process” that decides usage can’t or won’t deviate from a game plan even when everyone watching can already see what’s going to happen next.
That’s probably me wearing my fan hat more than it is my analyst one, because — as there always is — there’s logic behind the decisions that feel the most egregious at the time. But ugh.
Case in point number one, choosing not to intentionally walk Nolan Arenado with a base open, Garcia struggling, and the backup catcher coming up with the Jays clinging to a one-run lead in the bottom of the eighth.
This is, like, 2013 stuff, but the fact is that, even with the greater likelihood of a double play, run expectancy is higher with the bases loaded and no outs than it is with runners on first and second and no outs. The old-school instinct to walk the bases loaded there certainly seems like the wrong one. But the thing is, it's not different by a whole lot. According to Tom Tango's run expectancy matrix, using data from the 2010-2015 seasons, the chances of a run scoring at some point in an inning is 86.1% if a team gets the bases loaded with no outs, and it's 85.2% from second and third with no outs.
Now, this wasn’t the ninth, and the Jays would have obviously preferred to avoid a multi-run inning from this situation, so that’s important to consider too. With the bases loaded and no outs teams scored 2.292 runs on average, according to Tango’s data over the same span. From second and third with no outs it was 1.964. Again, not much difference, though clearly the averages favour pitching to the batter.
What’s harder gauge without significantly more granular data — which teams and people who understand all of this stuff better than I do may well have — is the difference between run expectancy when you’re looking at Andrew Kinzer stepping to the plate with the bases loaded or Arenado with guys at second and third.
I can completely believe that it’s possible the right thing to do there is to have Garcia face Arenado, and yet, who on earth didn’t see his two-run double coming?
Case number two was the decision to go to Tim Mayza to get the final out of the sixth in a tie game, just because there were two left-handers due up. At the time Erik Swanson, the club's best weapon against lefties, was already on the mound and cruising.
Swanson had got the final out of the fifth and the first two of the sixth. He was at 17 pitches when he was lifted for Mayza, meaning he could likely have gone one more batter, though two would have been unadvisable. So we have a pair of left-handed batters and upcoming and two outs. Honestly, that's actually probably the ideal spot for Mayza, because it makes it so unlikely that he’ll have to face a right-handed batter.
If you leave Swanson in and he doesn’t get the third out, now you’re probably going to Mayza anyway, and that right handed batter — who only happens to be Paul Goldschmidt! — is just one mistake away. And, frankly, if you can’t trust Mayza with two lefties coming up, what is he even doing on the roster?
And yet I hated the move. Partly, I’m sure, it’s an overreaction to what happened with Mayza on the mound last October, or how he couldn’t get an out in his final spring outing, or his many rough patches in 2022. Most of the troubles he had weren’t when lefties were at the plate anyway but, the thing is, though there’s risk in holding back Mayza and potentially leaving him just one lefty away from facing Goldschmidt, there’s also risk in changing horses in midstream when Swanson is dealing.
It feels weird, after so many years of being adamant that managers shouldn’t base decisions on their gut feelings, to be bothered by this kind of stuff. But it just seems sometimes like the Jays — still, months after firing Charlie Montoyo — are too rigid with this stuff, and end up making unforced errors because of it.
It’s not a bad bullpen, but it’s not idiot-proof. They don’t quite have the horses to get away with obviously dangerous decisions blowing up in their faces.
Down: Bo throws
Look, we’ll have all season to talk about this stuff, so I don’t want to dwell on it too much, but this was not Bo Bichette’s finest game in the field.
I mean, for one thing, he’s got to stop doing this.
That was the first play of the season, man! Your team just went up 3-0 in the top of the first — started absolutely as perfectly as possible — and you’re out here completely unable to stop yourself from putting your worst instincts on display? Ugh. Eat the damn ball!
He nearly airmailed another throw with the score 5-5 in the bottom of the fifth, and was only saved by a great play from Vladdy, who came off the bag to catch the ball, then was able to spin and put a tag on Tyler O’Neill before he could reach first base.
And then there was the play below, which came with the bases loaded and the score tied in the bottom of the seventh. Instead of charging this slow roller — perhaps because it would have put him on a collision course with the runner (who, had that happened, would have been called out, the ball would have been dead, and all the runners would have gone back to their previously occupied bases) — Bichette waited for the ball to come to him, still had time to throw home and get the force out at the plate, but instead threw to second, allowing the go-ahead run to score.
I don’t like to pick on Bo, especially after one game when the mistakes are particularly glaring, but he’s not a kid anymore. This is now the fifth season of Major League Baseball that he’s been a part of. He’s 25 years old. He’s a great player — a special hitter — but the story of the Jays’ offseason was their determination not to triple down on a roster shape that proved not quite good enough in 2021 and 2022, and yet at the most important defensive position on the diamond they seem to have had a real blind spot.
I know that moving Bo off of shortstop is an idea that’s much easier said than done — both for political reasons and because it’s nearly impossible to find someone good enough to be as passable as he is there with his kind of offensive toolkit — but there would be a lot less opportunity for mistakes like these if he were playing second.
Up: Doing exactly what they said they’d do
If you watched the game, hoo boy, you certainly have already gotten an earful about this brand new detail-oriented baseball team. I’ve joked at times this spring that the Jays’ front office built a roster specifically to please Buck Martinez, and it absolutely felt that way on Thursday. He was in his glory.
But the thing is, for the most part he was right.
Speed. Smart baserunning. Aggressive baserunning. Defence. The Jays committed to those things with their offseason overhaul, and not only were they on display against the Cardinals on Thursday, they were essential.
After doubling home a run in the first, Daulton Varsho perfectly read the ball off of Alejandro Kirk's bat, sprinting home from second on a soft single.
Varsho again showed great instincts in the field in the first inning, choosing to throw to second base to hold Arenado to a long RBI single rather than making a low-chance attempt to throw a runner out at third.
In the bottom of the second Springer made a spectacular catch to rob Brendan Donovan of extra bases with runners on first and second, keeping the Jays up 4-1.
Then, in the top of the fourth, Springer went first to third on a rocket (115.5 mph) of a ground ball single through the right side, successfully challenging rookie Jordan Walker's cannon of an arm and allowing Vlad to take second base in the process. Springer would score on a Varsho sac fly.
On the play after Bo's boner in the bottom of the seventh, Tommy Edman bounced a ball to Vlad, who — in sharp contrast with his teammate — did absolutely the right thing. Without hesitation, he made a spectacular throw to the plate to prevent another run.
This is a little unfair to the guys who are no longer with the team, but I think there’s a very good chance that Lourdes Gurriel Jr. would have tried to make the dazzling throw to third base that Varsho avoided, and left the Jays in a worse position. And I certainly think there was a much lower likelihood that Teoscar Hernández would have made the catch that Springer did, too.
The baserunning stuff, though it’s early days and may at times verge on too aggressive, felt significantly improved as well.
By no means did the Jays play a perfect game here, but in these aspects they did what they set out to do — not just from the start of spring, but from way back in October. Credit to them.
Up: Kiermaier’s run
And then, of course, there was Kevin Kiermaier’s incredible first-to-third run on George Springer’s ninth inning blooper — making him the first Blue Jays player to have 5HITS on opening day.
I haven't been the biggest fan of the Kiermaier signing, though that's been entirely about his bat and not anything else. This play showed a whole lot of that anything else.
Springer flared a 1-2 curveball from Cards closer Ryan Helsley toward left field. An 81 mph pitch from a guy who'd previously thrown a couple of 99 mph fastballs is a tough thing to handle — I mean, I've never done it myself obviously, but I assume! — but fortunately it ended up middle-middle and Springer was able to get some wood on it. The ball came off his bat at just 62.5 mph. Statcast gave it an expected batting average of .610, but it was heading directly behind shortstop Tommy Edman, who didn't just rank in the 86th percentile for sprint speed last season, but the 100th percentile for outs above average. This was mostly from playing second base, but he put up a +19 OAA in fewer than 700 innings last season, the third highest mark in the majors at any position.
Two players, both with incredible speed and incredible instincts, watching the same ball. One trying to make a play on it, the other trying to decide whether he will and what to do.
Sportsnet’s Chris Black posted some overhead video of the play on Friday morning.
Here’s the moment when the ball comes off of Springer’s bat, Kiermaier leading off of first and Edman, obviously, at short.
The ball has only just begun its rise and already Edman seems to know he might have a chance on it, turning instantly to attempt to run it down as Kiermaier floats further from the bag taking it all in.
Kiermaier is now a third of the way to second base, with the play in front of him. And he’s seeing Edman, with his great speed, get into gear as the ball sails above. If he doesn’t have a chance, he’s going to get close, and is a good enough defender to be dangerous to a runner in no man’s land once he gets the ball in his hand.
You can see the ball here, if only barely, contrasted against the Gateway Arch design in the outfield grass. Kiermaier is over halfway to second and would still need to turn around to scamper back to first if the ball is caught. He’s at the point where a lot of players would be at risk of getting doubled off in that situation, though with his speed Edman would have to make a perfect throw from a tough spot to get him.
That’s not what Kiermaier is thinking about here though, as this is just about the moment he judges that the ball is going to drop and commits to going to third.
It’s only about here that he fully breaks into a sprint…
At the moment the ball drops, which you can tell because Whit Merrifield has started tagging up to score, Kiermaier is literally already at second base and full steam rounding toward third…
Edman, who has had his back to the infield, picks up the ball, whips around and attempts to make a jump throw, presumably thinking that most runners in that situation would have hung closer to first to be sure the ball fell in before heading into second. This, remember, is as good a defender as there is, even if he’s not at his primary position. But as he comes around to make the throw, Kiermaier is long gone.
The throw is weak and pulls the second baseman off the bag anyway, perhaps because Edman saw at the last moment that going to second was a hopeless endeavor.
Had he set his feet and made a strong throw to third, or if the centre fielder had charged a little harder to be in position to immediately pick it up and throw, they might have nailed him. But it seems as though nobody expected Kiermaier to have done what he did.
Leaving nothing to chance, Kiermaier sped into third with a headfirst slide regardless.
Incredible speed, incredible instincts, outwitting a 100th percentile defender, and ending up as the go-ahead run with no outs in the ninth? That’s as perfect a “little things” play as you’ll see.
Kiermaier would score on a Vlad sac fly. The Jays won 10-9.
Up: Baseball is back!
I think I’ve written enough here already, and this piece is super late in going up, so all I’ll say here is hell yeah! That was a special way to start the season. And if you really want to read some flowery words about the return of the boys of summer, check out my pre-game/season preview piece if you haven’t already.
Baseball!
Quickly…
• It was an impressive Blue Jays debut for Daulton Varsho, but I especially liked his first inning double. Not just because it was a double, and not just because it came after a nine pitch battle with Miles Mikolas. It’s because the ball came off the bat at 112.5 mph. Here’s Nick with some additional info…
• It’s already getting old to hear Buck talk about the importance of hitters going the other way — you know, constantly — but it’s not like it didn’t pay dividends in this one. And it turns out Ross Atkins is on board with it, too. When asked by Buck about his players’ approach he responded, “I could not be more pleased to watch that — to see guys pulling their hands inside, staying within themselves, and thinking about the whole field. It works. And the fact that the ball is not driven quite as hard as maybe a double in the gap is just because of where it hit the barrel.”
To wit:
• Oh man, is it ever good to see what a healthy George Springer can do.
• Lastly, a bit of good news on the prospect front. Save those bullets, Ricky!
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*BANGING MY KITCHEN TABLE WHILE MY HOUSE RAPIDLY COMBUSTS*
BRING ON GAME 5 MOTHERFUCKERS
Fantastic stuff 👍