Blue Jays trade tiers — 2024 edition!: From the untouchable to the Daulton Varsho
A look at the likelihood every single Blue Jays player has of getting traded this winter (plus a few diversions along the way)...
Here on Tuesday we are counting down the hours until the 6 PM ET deadline for teams to add players to their 40-man rosters in order to protect them from December’s Rule 5 draft. Transactions are on their way, folks. And they may not even just be small ones. It was only one day after this deadline last year that the Toronto Blue Jays kicked-off their offseason with a mini-blockbuster, sending Teoscar Hernández to the Seattle Mariners in exchange for reliever Erik Swanson and pitching prospect Adam Macko.
It’s certainly possible that nothing quite that major is on the immediate horizon, but with this deadline, the shutdown for American Thanksgiving next week, and the Winter Meetings coming up not long after that (December 3rd to 6th), things are about to get a bit spicy on the ol’ hostove.
The free agent market is, as ever, full of shiny baubles that fans can’t help but find enticing as they think about ways to make their team better, but the market for position players—which is where Blue Jays will focus the majority of their efforts—is lacklustre. Financial restrictions, too, may be more of a factor than we’re used to seeing—partly due to the increasing expense of arbitration-eligible players like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Jordan Romano, and partly due to the many long-term deals the club is currently locked into. The best way to add to their win total, reshape their roster, and finally get over the playoff hump may, instead, have to involve some subtraction from their current group. And that’s precisely what we’re here to talk about today.
Here are my 2024 Blue Jays’ trade tiers!
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The "Untouchable" tier
Kevin Gausman: As we’re all well aware by now, Gausman is incredibly good. He was just announced as an AL Cy Young finalist, making 2023 the third year in a row that he'll have a top-10 finish for his league’s top pitching award. Since 2020, only Zack Wheeler and Corbin Burnes have produced more fWAR among pitchers, and his RA9-WAR ranks in the top 10 in MLB as well. Gausman is under contract for three more seasons at an incredibly reasonable average of $23.3 million per year, and he'll be 36 years old when his next contract begins. Unlike guys, say, in their mid-20s with just two years of control left, Gausman’s age and the extra year mean that there is absolutely no need to even entertain the idea of moving him. It’s not a “trade him now or lose him for nothing” situation. It’s a “he’s your unquestioned ace” situation. He’s going nowhere.
The "It would have to be a blockbuster" tier
Bo Bichette: Bo was hampered by injury in the second half, so his numbers look more like a typical Bichette year than it felt like they were going to when he came flying out of the gate, but he was excellent—and, importantly, made big strides defensively. Not only did he look more like a real shortstop, his DRS went from -16 to +5, his OAA from -7 to -2, and his errors from 23 all the way down to eight. He's going to get paid like a superstar shortstop by someone if he's allowed to reach free agency two winters from now, and the Jays need to decide what to do here before all they end up having to show for his Toronto career is a 2026 draft pick. It would be incredibly hard to make the 2024 Jays better by moving him, and not at all easy to sell to fans, but if they don't think they can extend him, or they worry about how his particular skillset will age, there may not be a better time. MLB.com's Dodgers reporter, Juan Toribo, wrote last week that L.A. is monitoring the shortstop market, and included Bo’s name as part of it.
Ricky Tiedemann: He’s not on the 40-man, but this piece wouldn’t be complete without addressing the Jays’ top prospect. Tiedemann was just named the Arizona Fall League’s pitcher of the year, and Baseball America gushed that “few pitchers in the minors can dominate like Tiedemann.” However, his 18 innings in the desert took him up to just 62 for his injury-plagued season—south of the 78 2/3 he logged in 2022. He reached Triple-A at the end of the year, putting him on the cusp of being able to help in the big leagues, but his lack of innings will limit that ability. While it would probably not be a great idea to go shopping a guy who looks like he’ll be a big part of the rotation’s future, we’d have said that about Nate Pearson once as well. If the right deal comes along—and it would have to be massive—they’d at least have to consider it.
The "Going to have to seriously listen, unfortunately" tier
Chris Bassitt: I have a “Not really worth discussing” tier below that it may have been more appropriate to put Bassitt in. I really can’t imagine him being dealt. He was spectacular in the second half, year after year continues to be a very solid mid-rotation starter, and the Jays don't have a ton of starting pitching depth to play on the trade market. But they do have a little bit. Beyond the obvious front five, they’ve got Bowden Francis, Mitch White, eventually Tiedemann, and some more fringe-type arms as well. That’s not much of a safety net, but enough that I think it's at least possible the thin position player market forces teams to get creative. Bassitt, with two years left at $21 million each (plus potential bonuses), would have real value to the pitching-starved teams out there. Could the Jays absorb the downgrade at his spot? Would they deal him for a position player, reinvest the money they save in another hitter, and then backfill in the rotation? Probably not. But there might be a path there. And there’d be an even clearer one if they sprung something like a Yamamoto signing on us.
Bowden Francis: I don't think the Jays are going to be looking to move Francis either, but the reasons they'd like to keep him are the same reasons he's going to have appeal elsewhere. He's reasonably young, he's got less than a year of service time, he'll barely make any money next season, he's optionable, he can start games or pitch in relief, and he more than held his own in both the majors and the minors in 2023. In fact, he really seemed to take a step forward. His velocity was up, and he went from pitching to a 6.59 ERA for Buffalo in 2022, and being outrighted off the 40-man, to a 2.67 mark in 2023, and 1.73 ERA in 36 1/3 big league innings. I don't think anybody believes he's that good. But he could likely start for someone in the majors, which could make him a commodity. Maybe the Jays decide to buy in on Mitch White as their swingman—they'll have to keep him on the roster or expose him to waivers anyway—and let Francis go if the price is right.
Yusei Kikuchi: A great story in 2023—at least until his final appearance, though that was hardly his fault—I don't think anybody would have a problem if Kikuchi stayed and finished out his contract. But, as with Bassitt, I think there's a chance the Jays consider moving someone out of their rotation, and Kikuchi is an even better candidate for that. He'll make just $10 million in the final year of the three-year deal he signed two winters ago, but his "hit" for luxury tax purposes is actually $12 million—the contract’s average annual value. The CBT implications are potentially important for the Jays, but maybe less so for others. Even if not, as I noted in last week's mail bag, there are some interesting position players on similar deals that may end up on the trade market as well: Minnesota's Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler, San Diego's Ha-Seong Kim, Anaheim’s Brandon Drury, Boston's (ugh) Alex Verdugo, or—if we really want to get weird—Milwaukee's Willy Adames.
Alek Manoah: Ross Atkins put a positive spin on the Manoah situation at the GM meetings last week, explaining that 2022 AL Cy Young finalist “has earned, already, the right to have a strong leg up” for a rotation spot next spring, and that he feels “so good about him returning back to the 2021, 2022 version of himself.” This certainly could be posturing—I’m sure we all remember last year’s claim that the team was willing to keep all three of its catchers—but it could also be resignation that there’s no sense in saying otherwise, and no way to get enough value back for a guy coming off one of the 30 worst 80+ IP seasons from a starter by fWAR since 2013 (a total of 1,453 individual seasons). With an open spot in the rotation and Tiedemann potentially able to swoop in eventually if needed, the Jays have a pretty good situation in which to see if they can get Manoah right—and hope that September’s PRP injection and a better offseason regime can help him. But if they have concerns about the medicals, or the frayed relationship, and potential trade partners are valuing him highly enough, they’d have no choice but to seriously listen.
Orelvis Martinez: The power is legit, and Orelvis rebuilt a lot of his prospect value with a strong 2023 season. But he'll still be 21 for another week, he started slowly when he first moved to High-A in 2021, he had a rough season at Double-A in 2022, he strikes out a lot, and he only slashed .224/.333/.437 (.769 OPS) against right-handed pitching in 2023. He's got the highest ceiling, and maybe the lowest floor of any of the "Buffalo Boys." The likeliest of the group to turn into a star, but the one who probably needs the most seasoning still. And with the Jays obviously a win-now team, as much as it might hurt their future to move a potential cheap lefty-mashing power bat, dealing Martinez may offer them a path to help the big league club in 2024—and that's got to be the priority. But it would have to be for something pretty special.
Davis Schneider: Outside of landing Shohei Ohtani, I'm not sure there's any deal the Jays could make this winter that won't cause a significant part of their fan base squeal with incoherent disgust. But moving Schneider, who was maybe the most beloved figure from an otherwise incredibly frustrating summer, would make the freak show especially noisy. And sure, he could absolutely play a part on a 2024 Jays team that could use up to four additions on the position player side. Losing him creates another hole, in fact. But, as I noted in last week’s mail bag, it’s really hard to know how to value him, and I think it would be fair if the Jays weren’t as swayed by the unsustainable start to his major league career, or his strong numbers in a hitter-friendly minor league, than many of their fans are. If some other team was? I think they’d have to listen, even knowing how much of a tough sell it would be for fans.
Yimi García and Erik Swanson: Even with the departure of Jordan Hicks, the Jays have put together a very strong bullpen, particularly from the right side. They’re going to be loath to subtract from it, but teams are always going to be seeking relief help, and ultimately the front office may feel they’re strong enough back there to absorb the hit. García will make $6 million in the final year of his deal, while Swanson has two years left and is projected to make $2.7 million through arbitration. Three years of Swanson, plus Macko, got the Mariners Teoscar last winter, so it’s not impossible that some position player help could be out there for him again with the right sweetener.
The "Not really worth discussing" tier
José Berríos: Even though he had a very nice bounce back season in 2023, I’ve put Berríos here, rather than in the tier above with Bassitt and Kikuchi, because of his contract. It's not so much that the five years and $101 million remaining on the deal would be unmovable. But there's also an eight-team no-trade clause and, more importantly, an opt-out after 2026. Berríos will make slightly less than $18 million on average in each of the next three years, then he'll have to choose between two more years at $24 million each (with potentially $5 million in bonuses) or heading into free agency at age 33. The risk of being on the hook in three years for a player not good enough to take the opt-out—and about to get a hefty salary bump—undoes a lot of the deal’s value. On the surface it looks like it might be slightly below market rate, and the Jays could probably find a taker if they really wanted to, but not one willing to give them anything back to make it worthwhile.
Cavan Biggio: The Jays lack position players, and in particular reliable bats from the left side. It's hard to call Biggio that, but the only other lefty hitters on the 40-man are Daulton Varsho, Nathan Lukes, Spencer Horwitz, Addison Barger, and the switch-hitting Tyler Heineman. Say what you will about the ups and downs of his career so far, Biggio did put up a 118 wRC+ against right-handed pitching from May 1st onward, and flashed a really good glove at multiple positions. He's probably got more value to the Jays as a lefty Swiss army knife to balance their right-handed heavy attack, than he will on the trade market. In other words, unless he's a throw-in on a much bigger deal involving a lefty bat, there's probably not going to be movement here.
Chad Green: The Jays just picked up Green’s two-year, $21 million option, meaning that—like Berríos—he’s making a little less than he would be in free agency, but not so little that you could move him, and the contract, and get enough back to make it worthwhile.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: Vlad was in my “Untouchable” tier this time a year ago, but after a second straight disappointing year at the plate, and with a projected arbitration salary that’s set to pass $20 million, he’s all but impossible to value. Is he the guy we all think he can be, whose mix of ability to strike the ball and control the zone suggest 2021 was no fluke? Or is he the 10th best first baseman by wRC+, 20th by fWAR, and dead last defensively? I have no clue. And the questions don't even stop there. Is he the guy who was 16th in baseball by wRC+ and tied for 22nd in home runs on the road? Or the one who was 108th in wRC+ and tied for 69th in homers in his home park? The former is a star, the latter isn't worth the $20 million, let alone the bounty of talent it would take to acquire him. The only way forward here, for now, is with the Jays.
Danny Jansen and Alejandro Kirk: The Jays made their choice on the catching front a year ago. We can debate whether it was the right one or not—though, I'll tell you right now, it maybe wasn't quite as bad as those who groaned their way through the Diamondbacks' run to the World Series got in their heads; Jays catchers ranked sixth in MLB by both fWAR (4.4) and wRC+ (110), Arizona ranked 19th (1.1) and 16th (91)—but there's no going back now. And a step back it would be if they broke up their catching tandem this winter. It's too big a job for one or the other and, with apologies to Tyler Heineman, there are no other horses left in the barn. Jansen only has a year left before free agency, and it feels much more likely that he gets extended than dealt. And while some fans may be down on Alejandro Kirk after his tough season at the plate, Steamer isn't: he's projected to 3.0 fWAR in just 338 PA—better numbers, both offensively and defensively, than Gabriel Moreno is projected for. Another bad year—and MLB switching to the automated ball-strike system in 2025—could wipe out a ton of Kirk’s value, even if he’ll still have two years left before free agency next winter, but that’s just a risk the Blue Jays will have to take. Or, more accurately, have already taken. Moving him now would be more trouble than it’s worth.
Tyler Heineman: A perfectly useful third catcher with one more minor league option left and not enough service time to command a big salary? And the Jays clearly like him? Seems like his role for 2024 is all set.
Tim Mayza and Jordan Romano: The Jays’ most important relievers from the left and right side, two years from free agency, projected to make $3.3 million and $7.7 million respectively. Mayza and Romano certainly would have value on the trade market, but like Jansen and Kirk, moving either of them would surely create a bigger problem than it would solve. I just don’t see it.
George Springer: It's not that you couldn't necessarily find a way to move a player like Springer, but at 34 years old, coming off a 104 wRC+ season, and with nearly $70 million still owed to him over the next three years? Even if you’re eating a bunch of money, you're not getting anything back that's nearly as good as the possibility that Springer returns to looking more like his usual self in 2024—even if, at his age, that's not exactly a slam dunk.
The "Sure, why not?" tier
Addison Barger: The talk of spring training, especially early on, Barger went on to be one of the few Buffalo Boys who didn't hit. In just a shade under 400 PA, Barger slashed .250/.353/.403, which put him well below the International League's average OPS of .794. He's still an intriguing prospect who ought to get back on track, but right now he can really only be depth for the Jays. The difference between that, and what he could be in another organization, could make him an intriguing trade candidate. Especially because the Jays have plenty of other infielders they could turn to in a pinch.
Brandon Barriera: The Jays were reportedly not very happy with how 2022’s top pick came into camp, and then the young left-hander went out and had himself something of a lost season. Barriera dealt with shoulder problems in the spring, elbow soreness in May, and then was shut down in August with biceps soreness. This limited him to just 20 1/3 competitive innings this season—not great, considering he shut down his final high school season early prior to being drafted, and didn’t debut in the minors until this spring. Maybe I’m being a bit cavalier about his future by having him in this tier, but it just feels to me like maybe this is another situation like with Austin Martin or Gunnar Hoglund, where there's still plenty of prospect shine on a guy for some teams, but the Jays aren't quite seeing it the same way. It would fit a pattern, at least. And if so, I say go for it.
Génesis Cabrera: Cabrera won’t bring back anything major, and he’s a useful part of the big league bullpen as a second lefty behind Tim Mayza—a role this team has struggled to fill for multiple years. He has a minor league option remaining, too. But he’s also found money. The Jays got the best out of him in a way that the Cardinals had been unable to for the bulk of two seasons, rebuilding his value to the point where, maybe, in a league that often operates with an arbitrage mindset, the possibility of a nice win will prove too tempting to pass up. Especially since the Jays haven't seemed bothered by lacking a second lefty in the past, and with Tiedemann potentially not that far off from providing them with a lefty weapon in an innings-limited role anyway.
Spencer Horwitz: I saw someone refer to Horwitz as a potential "stud" on Twitter earlier. While I think that's pretty clearly absurd—he had a great year at the plate in a hitter-friendly Triple-A league, but did so via a .386 BABIP, hitting just 10 home runs in 484 PA in the process, all while being one year and four months older than five-year big league veteran Vladimir Guerrero Jr.—he does have an interesting bat that looks like it's ready to see more action in the majors than the Jays are likely going to be able to provide it. He likely makes more sense as 1B/DH depth until he starts getting closer to running out of options (he's got two option years left) or really breaks down the door. But with the right offer, or as part of the right package, moving him could certainly make sense.
The Rule 5 crunch guys: We’ll know later here on Tuesday who the Jays decided to add to their 40-man and protect from the Rule 5 draft—and who they chose to expose, or chose to trade in order to avoid potentially losing them for nothing. There are two players that appear to be on the bubble here. Speaking of arbitrage (weren’t we?), we have the aforementioned Adam Macko. It would be tough to let a guy who was part of the Teoscar trade slip away so soon, especially after he seemed to really break out in the second half of the season at High-A. In Macko's final seven starts for Vancouver he struck out 50 in just 32 1/3 innings, pitching to a 2.51 ERA. But most nights he was even better than that: he allowed either zero or one run in six of those starts, the lefty's only blemish being a seven-run disaster in mid-August. There is also former second-round pick C.J. Van Eyk, who missed 2022 due to Tommy John surgery, but ended up finishing the regular season in Double-A. Last month, according to MLB Pipeline's Jonathan Mayo and Jim Callis, “he showed one of the best curveballs in the AFL, where he logged a 2.51 ERA and struck out three batters with three different pitches in an inning of work in the Fall Stars Game.” Both could be trade targets.
Other non-40-man prospects not named Nimmala: We’ve already discussed Tiedemann, Barriera, Macko, and Van Eyk, but there are a slew of other prospects who haven’t yet reached the point of having to be added to the 40-man. And, as the heading here probably suggested to you, with the exception of this summer’s top pick, Arjun Nimmala, I say trade ‘em all if the right deal comes around. Which isn't to say that there aren't interesting guys bubbling up from the lower minors. Alan Roden and Damiano Palmegiani had eye-opening years in Double-A. The Jays may have something in Chad Dallas. Josh Kasevich? Tucker Toman? Cade Doughty? There's still time for those guys to blossom. But if you can use them to improve the big league club right now, I think it has to be done.
Hard-throwing, young, right-handed relievers: Here’s a group that includes Hagen Danner, Nate Pearson, Zach Pop, and Yosver Zulueta. They’re all interesting arms, but they're guys farther down the bullpen pecking order who might intrigue other clubs who could use them in bigger roles. Particularly, in the cases of Pearson and Zulueta, if there's anyone out there who thinks they may still have a chance to start. Pearson, Pop, and Danner can each only be optioned once more before they'd have to be exposed to waivers in order to be sent down, so the clock is ticking. They provide a nice layer of depth, but we could certainly also see some movement here. Particularly if the club wants to give one of their 40-man spots to someone else.
The "I mean, if anybody wants 'em" tier
Non-tender candidates: In this category we have Adam Cimber, Santiago Espinal, and Trevor Richards. All three guys have been useful to the Jays, to varying degrees, over the past couple of years. I’ve enjoyed the way they’ve played quite often, in fact. But with arbitration projections of $3.2 million, $5.5 million, and $2.4 million respectively, and younger and cheaper talent quickly passing them on the depth chart, it's probably time to move on here. Even if, in the case of the two relievers, I'd be happy to move on in the form of offering each a minor league deal with some incentives.
Mitch White: I didn’t include White with the non-tender candidates above because, rather than salary, his issue is that he’ll be out of options this spring. The fact that he’s lasted on the roster for this long makes me think it’s at least possible that he will indeed be there when camp opens in Dunedin next February and—bad as he’s been for the Jays—I think that would be fine. I was intrigued by what he did at the end of the season in Buffalo. He was throwing harder, and allowed just 12 earned runs over his final 36 innings, while striking out 46. But, I mean, if another club was similarly intrigued, I'd certainly not be holding onto him too tightly.
Buffalo depth: Your mileage may vary in terms of what you think the Blue Jays could get out of the likes of Ernie Clement, Leo Jimenez, Brendon Little, Otto Lopez, Nathan Lukes, and Wes Parsons, but they all get a big ol’ “meh” from me. Maybe not so much that I mean outrighting them off the roster and losing them for nothing—and certainly not all of them, if there are spots available. But “meh” nonetheless.
The "Daulton Varsho" tier
Daulton Varsho: Look, I know this is being a bit mean. Varsho has a ton of defensive value and a bat that may yet make last winter’s trade look like a decent one. Plus, it’s worth noting here that the last two times I did this exercise I had Randal Grichuk and then Yusei Kikuchi in this bottom tier. It turned out that Grichuk had enough value to actually be traded, even if it was only just for Raimel Tapia. And Kikuchi was on the cusp of completely turning his Blue Jays career around. Perhaps that bodes well for Varsho—and I hope it does. But after the year he had, even considering his outstanding work in the field, there is absolutely no way to get back anything close to the value that Ross Atkins gave up when acquiring him. And the optics of doing so would be especially ugly after Gabriel Moreno’s star-making playoff run. Moving him now would mean embarrassment piled on top of embarrassment. It’s not happening.
He’s here. In this tier. Get used to it.
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I'd give anything for Varsho to have a good year, seems like such a great dude.
Good analysis. I think Varsho is in for a fairly good year.