Mail bag: Decisions, decisions...

On Ross Atkins, Matt Chapman, FA targets, the trade market, Alek Manoah, Vlad Jr., Davis Schneider, James Click, Jordan Hicks, the Varsho deal, Shohei Ohtani, umpiring standards, and so much more!

It’s been a long time coming, but we’re finally here. Mail bag day! And let me tell you, it’s a hefty boy.

Before we get to that, though, I must first apologize for the delay. As I said in a recent post, it turns out that I wasn’t quite as ready to think about the 2023 Blue Jays as I thought I was when I put out the call for submissions to this one. I suspect that, as folks who followed those same 2023 Blue Jays, you all can probably completely understand.

But now that the offseason is here? Now that we’re actually talking about the 2024 Blue Jays? Ahhh, it’s a breath of fresh air. And since this post is literally almost half the length of Kafka’s Metamorphosis, apparently I’ve got some things to say.

So let’s not delay any further and get straight to the Q’s and the A’s! Thank you so much to all of the tremendous paid subscribers who submitted questions and help me make a living and keep this website free for everybody else. Questions or not, you’re all the absolute best.

Oh, and, as always, I have not read any of Griff’s answers…

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Let me be honest with you for a second here, friends. This site keeps the lights on for me, but it isn’t a cash cow. And I could live a lot more comfortably than I do right now if I was willing to put some or all of my work behind a paywall and push a bunch readers who are on the fence into becoming paid subscribers.

The thing is, I know that times are tough for a lot of people and I really don’t want to become inaccessible to anyone who enjoys reading and couldn’t pay.

So please, if you can afford it, and you value what I do and aren’t already a paid subscriber, I’d ask that you consider upgrading your free subscription to a paid one. Thanks. — Stoeten

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Contrary to popular opinion, Ross Atkins is an intelligent person. He surely must have realised that his comments about the Berríos removal and game planning in general would be perceived as throwing Schneider under the bus. So why was he so blatant about doing that? Is he so opaque that he couldn't see the shit storm it would create? Amongst all the discussion about it, I haven't seen anyone ask why he would do it. Did it just come out spontaneously? Is he in fact, not that smart? Thoughts? - OzRob

Thanks for the question and the support, man. You’re right that Ross is most definitely an intelligent guy. Having spoken with him a little, both on podcasts and in person, and having transcribed a ton of his words, I feel very comfortable assuring you that. It would be virtually impossible for him to end up where he has in his career if he weren't. Which, I suppose, only makes his obvious communication problems that much more odd.

Except… does it really?

Occam's Razor is obviously just a loose heuristic, but I don't think we need to dream up elaborate explanations for what’s going on here. There's really a pretty simple and believable one. Some of us are just not very comfortable with microphones in our faces, or struggle to organize our thoughts coherently while thinking on our feet in certain stressful situations. For someone like that it can be tough to reel confusion back in once you’ve gone off script. And in Atkins’ case, there’s an especially high degree of difficulty when it comes to speaking publicly because of all the things a GM can’t or shouldn’t say.

That's not to excuse him or say it’s not a problem. Ross hasn't seemed to improve this very much in eight seasons. And as it's one of our few windows into how information flows within an organization that's clearly obsessed with information—and has faced plenty of whispers about communication problems over the years—it’s a concern.

It also affects consumer confidence. And while I’m not sure if fans should really care about how good their team is at maintaining that, or how well they’re spun to, based on Mark Shapiro’s season-ending presser, the club surely does to at least some degree.

I mean, you probably don't choose an untested Atkins in the first place—or Charlie Montoyo as your first hand-picked manager for that matter—if you really think communication with the public is especially important. Or maybe you feel you can do so safe in the knowledge that Mark will always be there to clear up any mess. Perhaps the system functioned as designed in the aftermath of this season’s ugly playoff exit. Or perhaps it’s just that Shapiro and Atkins long ago clocked that winning is all that matters in this market anyway—a notion that, ultimately, I think is probably accurate.

But, man, it sure would be nice if, in the middle of a season as good-yet-incredibly-frustrating as the one we've just been through, there was a voice of authority that fans could hear from to give them some needed calm and perspective. Someone who can actually put out a fire without starting two more.

I suppose that’s Mark, but he’s not the face of baseball operations. Another unforced error, perhaps.

Like, remember how Alex Anthopoulos, when he was still an assistant GM to J.P. Ricciardi, grew into a much more public-facing role? Remember when Tony LaCava would more frequently talk to the press? It doesn’t have to be Ross-or-nothing.

And I can't help but think that some of the poisonous atmosphere that clouded this entire season could have been lessened if there was more trust in the guys in charge. That starts with communication, and it’s really hard to do well when your point man is on the defensive all summer because of situations with Anthony Bass and Alek Manoah that both spiralled precisely because of ineffective communication from the club.

Image unrelated

So… the Schneider stuff would seem more egregious to me, or at least more curious, if it wasn’t kind of just par for the course here. Clearly this isn’t a well-oiled communications machine—though Ross did seem to do a decent job of clarifying some of his end-of-year comments, and taking accountability, when he spoke to reporters at the GM meetings this week. Still, in-the-moment damage control seems woefully inadequate, and there doesn’t seem to be much of a grand communications strategy going on here at all. Even if there were, I'm not sure Ross would be the right person to try to execute it anyway. They can't even get him to drop the corporate-speak he so frequently falls into.

Which is fine. I've been in his office—he offered me a beer! He's not really like the corporate automaton that people who’ve only seen him on TV seem believe. But some of the media duties in his job description just seem to very much not quite be in his wheelhouse. I honestly don’t think there’s anything going on here beyond that.

Thanks for providing coverage for the grindiest 89 win season MLB history, your content definitely made it easier to stick through! Was this past season just bad luck? If you could run it back in 2024 with the exact same team, would you? - giant_badger

Thanks for the kind words and the support, giant_badger!

I can’t say yes to your question here for a couple of reasons, even though I do think there was a ton of bad luck involved, and that it would be difficult for some of the team’s biggest underperformers to be as bad as they were again.

There’s a temptation to believe that the story of the 2023 Blue Jays is actually pretty simple to articulate: elite pitching and defence were undone by a bizarrely ineffective offence that will almost certainly see some self-correction going forward. That covers a lot of it. But it ignores, among other things, how incredibly fortunate this team was in terms of health, particularly in the starting rotation. And it doesn’t account for whatever was going on in terms of advance scouting, or hitting philosophy, that may have played a role in whatever happened to some of those disappointing hitters.

To run it back and hope for similar health, or that those hitting issues won’t reemerge without thoroughly examining the quality of information the organization uses and the way it’s disseminated, would be a pretty big mistake. Keeping Daulton Varsho as a left fielder instead of moving him to centre and adding some more offensive punch would also be a clear mistake in my view. Frankly, it wouldn’t be the worst idea to construct a roster that allows Vlad’s playing time to skew more heavily to DH as well—something that bringing back 36-year-old Brandon Belt and his thrice-surgically-repaired knee probably doesn’t allow.

So, yeah… no. No, I wouldn’t run it back.

But also, if I could go back to last winter knowing what I know now, I might not do all that much different. The Jays were an objectively better team than the 84-win Diamondbacks that went to the World Series—they scored more runs, hit more home runs, had a better wRC+, a better DRS, a better ERA and FIP in both the starting rotation and the bullpen—and won just one fewer game, in a tougher division, than the newly crowned champions. It would obviously be incredibly foolish to suggest that the Jays’ were mere victims of the playoff crapshoot, but at least to an extent they were absolutely victims of the playoff crapshoot.

It genuinely could and should have worked better. That’s a huge part of why to watch them, in slow motion, waste the opportunity and the great health, was such an unbelievable drag.

I appreciate your work this season Andrew. Great stuff. True voice of reason stuff.

Am I crazy to think that 2023 was a weird blip, and the bats could actually improve next season? Vlad, Varsho, Kirk, George can't all forget how to hit, right? I'm one of the fans that was patient, expected them to figure it out eventually, and truly believed that they were just about to break out. Also was a fan who was relieved that it was finally over, once they played the same dogshit/bad luck/no room for error bullshit baseball in the two wild card games.

The postseason has shown us that no matter who the GM is, well-constructed teams can lose 2, 3 in a row. I don't need Ross' head on a stick. They did build a great team on paper. (Maybe have Shapiro write the script for him. For god's sake don't put a mic in front of him.)

My main concern is filling the hole left at third if Chappy's gone.

The expectations were so high going in to the season, much of the talent is still there. I believe they have a serious run in them if they can get out of their own way and hit. - Chris

Thanks for the kind words, and for the support, man! As I said above, I do agree that those hitters are likely due some positive regression. But we need to be careful not to overlook the red flags—or, at least, the Blue Jays need to be careful of that.

George Springer turned 34 in September and is coming off of the worst offensive season of his career, despite surpassing the 140 game mark for the first time since 2017. His walk rate, slugging percentage, ISO, and wRC+ were all career lows. I hate to say it, but bouncing back at his age is a far different proposition than it would have been even just a couple of years ago.

According to the similarity scores on his Baseball Reference page, Springer's most similar batters through age-33 will be familiar ones to most Jays fans: Jason Bay and José Bautista.

Bay was pretty broken down by the time he was Springer’s age, and was four years removed from his last elite season, so he's maybe not a great comparison, but at age-34 he played just 68 below-average games for the Mariners and was out of baseball the following year. Bautista had a spectacular age-34 season in 2015, but things went south pretty quickly after that, and once the slide started there was no stopping it.

These are just two guys, of course, but the comparisons don't exactly make me feel great. And there aren't a whole lot of elite post-33 seasons among the other familiar names in Springer's top 10—Reggie Sanders, Kirk Gibson, Ron Gant, Curtis Granderson, David Justice—but that's probably just because there aren't a ton of elite 34+ seasons for anybody. There are many good ones though, and yeah, Springer could absolutely bounce back. I think it’s a reasonable bet that he will—not that the Jays have any choice but to take it—it's just far from a guarantee.

The younger guys you feel a bit better about, but obviously there are red flags there as well.

Alejandro Kirk's body type is always going to raise concerns about an early breakdown, though 25 still seems awfully young for that. Still, his exit velocity drop this season was a concern. Among hitters with 150 PA in 2021, his 92.3 mph average exit velocity ranked 30th out of 411. In 2023 his EV went down to 87.6 mph, and his ranking (out of 404) sunk to 300th. Some of that may have been an approach issue—swinging at too many pitches he was unable to really drive—but some way or other that needs to change.

Daulton Varsho, meanwhile, has been wildly inconsistent in his career, particularly within his platoon splits. Against left-handed pitching his wRC+ has gone from -14 to 118 to 53 to 103. Against right-handers it's been 116, 93, 122, 80.

As easy as it is to say that Varsho would be a star if he hit LHP like 2023 and RHP like 2022—and I've said it!—if he did the reverse he'd barely be playable, even with an elite glove. Has he given us reason to believe one outcome is more likely than the other?

Vlad obviously has a lot more in his bat than we saw in 2023, and I'd still very much bet on him because of all the underlying stuff that's always been there. He can figure it out. But that doesn't mean he will. Like… anyone who insists that they already know his monster 2021 season was just an outlier is obviously a clown. But it could have been, you know?

So, there are definitely concerns on those fronts, though I’m not sure they’re bigger concerns than any other team has. Year-to-year performance can be really volatile. The front office’s job is to build out a roster that can withstand that. You need high-floor big league talent and the odd guy who can break his projections. The Jays’ position players, despite their offensive difficulties in 2023, survived because of exactly that. Varsho, Kiermaier, Chapman, and even Kirk provided elite defence, while Brandon Belt and Davis Schneider added more offence than expected, and Bo was Bo.

As for 2024, you’re right that Chapman’s loss will be a big one, provided the Jays don’t end up brining him back.

And the thing about that is, as frustrating as it was to watch him try to hit for most of the year, and as down on him as I’ve been, if I try to be a little more objective about it I can’t help but look at the market and think that the Jays should probably make a push to do exactly that.

I mean, they can afford it, right?

Let’s not forget that he was still a 3.5 WAR player per FanGraphs, and a 4.4 WAR player per Baseball Reference. His defence is, as we know, incredibly good and valuable.

And if I really wanted to put a shine on his season, I’d point out that even though he was in a bit of a trough in mid-August when he was first scratched from the lineup because of his injured finger, his attempt to play through that injury and his less-than-stellar return really did skew his numbers in a negative way. If his season had ended at that point he’d have finished with a 121 wRC+ instead of 110. If he doesn’t hurt his finger, maybe he even improves on 121.

Not that I’m trying to talk myself into wanting a reunion—though it’s sort of working!—I also keep coming back to the fact that Chapman’s pull rate went way down in 2023, even though his 2022 season really turned around after a terrible April and May once he started pulling the ball more.

The reality is a little more messy than that, and his ridiculous run this April is obviously a massive exception, but you can see in the graph below that, generally, his wRC+ and pull rate hew pretty closely together. Though maybe there’s a chicken egg aspect to this. (Note: The graph below shows a 30-game rolling average, unlike the 10-game rolling average in the one above).

Pull the ball, Matt! Pull the ball and come home!

Anyway… yeah. That was maybe a bit of a tangent. But I agree that the Jays’ Chapman-sized hole is an issue. And maybe we haven’t talked enough about how there’s also a Chapman-sized solution.

Hi Andrew,

Thanks for being a calming voice throughout the most frustrating Jays season I can remember (which is saying something).

I assume the Jays will give Chapman a QO, but he’ll end up walking. That leads me to two questions:

1. Given the presence of a few intriguing infield prospects who probably aren’t quite ready, is Chapman accepting the QO the best possible outcome for figuring out 3B this offseason.

2. If he leaves and that hole needs to be filled, who might be some intriguing external options? A trade for Ryan McMahon or Brendan Donovan? Sign Jaimer Candelario? Would it be totally batshit to offer something for Anthony Rendon (with some money retained by LAA) and give him a lot of time at DH? I’m not terribly inspired by any of those options, but maybe you see a few other paths that I’m not thinking of. - Liam

Thanks for the question and the support, Liam! As we now know, the Jays have indeed given Chapman the qualifying offer. And, as I suppose I made clear above, I do agree that the best possible outcome is that he takes it.

That, unfortunately, will absolutely not happen.

I also agree that the alternatives are not especially appealing, though I think we’re just going to have to accept that and hope that the Jays don’t let perfect be the enemy of good. The thin position player market, and lack of teams to trade with that are in full-on big-leaguers-for-prospects rebuilds, means that teams—not just the Jays—are simply going to have to pick their poison.

One way to do that would be going after Chapman himself, banking on the fact that you can get him back to what he was in the second half of 2022. But according to the predictions at MLBTR, that means giving him the George Springer contract—six years and $150 million—at the exact same age Springer was when he signed on. I could go for that, which is to say that I’d be happy to spend Edward Rogers’ money on that, but it wouldn’t leave the Jays with much room left to operate this winter. I noted in Monday’s Stray Thoughts that without shedding some salary the Jays are already projected to be only about $30 million south of last year’s luxury tax number. And the fact that Chapman showed up at the GM meetings earlier this week, because he lives in Scottsdale, makes me wonder if he’s got a preference for a team that trains in Arizona.

If a reunion doesn’t happen, the Jays will at least have some flexibility. Cavan Biggio and Davis Schneider are better suited to a second base platoon, but I think they handled themselves adequately enough at third that they could also platoon there. So maybe you go after a second baseman, instead. Though the Jays—who, based on Ross Atkins’ comments earlier in the week, still seem preoccupied with defence, or at least are wary of not making an overcorrection—may not agree.

In free agency, Candelario is a guy you could take a chance on. What on earth happened to him in 2022 (and after he was traded to the Cubs this summer) is a bit puzzling, but on this market a guy who has hit well in three of the last four years looks pretty good. That's reflected by the four-year, $70 million prediction the MLBTR writers have put on him, though other outlets have him coming in much lower. FanGraphs, for example, have him more in the 3/$40M range. Either way, that's not as much, in baseball terms, as it feels, but it still looks like a lot for a guy who isn't exactly going to excite anybody.

But if the alternative is someone who moves the needle even less? Or nothing at all? Maybe it's not so bad.

I mean, Gio Urshela is also out there. ARE YOU EXCITED? He's been about a league average hitter over the last three years combined, but they've been up-and-down, and 2023 was definitely down (92 wRC+, and just 62 games played). Hey, and if you like oft-injured guys with their best years way behind them, maybe you could also take a flyer on Evan Longoria.

So, yeah, maybe the trade market is the better way to go.

As for your suggestions, hard pass on Rendon, though I'd definitely consider Brandon Drury if the Angels look to retool after Ohtani inevitably rejects them. McMahon is too good and signed for too cheap and too long for me to believe the Rockies would move him. But the Jays and Cardinals are no strangers to making trades with each other, and either Donovan or Nolan Gorman could be offence-tilted fits for the Jays' infield—and apparently they’ve already checked in on outfielder Dylan Carlson as well.

Does Alek Manoah get you one of those guys? Does Manoah for one of the Reds' many infielders, like maybe Jonathan India, make sense for anybody? Depends on whether the Jays even want to entertain the idea of moving him at such a low ebb of his value. And, I suppose, what anybody thinks of his likelihood of rebounding—or his medicals.

Might a better offseason be all it takes to get Manoah back on track? Kevin Gausman, who spoke to Foul Territory this week, seems to think so.

Back to trades: Does anybody think they can fix Nate Pearson? Is there a way to get Ha-Seong Kim out of San Diego—say, based around Yusei Kikuchi and cash? Or, if you think you can get away with moving Kikuchi for someone on a similar contract, then adding a starter elsewhere, would the Twins consider filling one of their rotation holes with him and sending Jorge Polanco back? How about the Cardinals’ Tyler O’Neill?

Clearly I have no idea! There are just so many variables at play with this stuff that I barely know where to begin. And even if I did I'd almost certainly be wrong anyway. It’s much easier at the trade deadline when there are fairly clear buyers and sellers an no free agent possibilities muddying the waters. This time of year it’s always more difficult, and inevitably something like the Teoscar-for-Swanson deal hits you from out of nowhere.

Figuring out this stuff is why Ross gets paid the big bucks.

I was thinking about the dilemma associated with giving Vladdy an extension. The obvious question is who is Vladdy? Is he the generational talent of 2021 or is he the good player of 2022 and 2023. Might the solution be to sign him to a contract based on his last two years, but have it laden with performance based incentives. When you do that, you are addressing both visions of Vladdy’s. What do you think? — Paul

Thanks for the question man! I think that would be a great idea for the Blue Jays. Unfortunately, I can’t imagine that Vlad would have any interest in that.

You’re right that it’s really hard to know right now what Vlad’s production will look like going forward, but as long as all the underlying stuff remains where it is, teams are going to be incredibly interested in him when he hits free agency heading into his age-27 season. His Statcast numbers for 2023 aren't quite as pretty as in previous years, but they're still awfully good. He hits the ball hard, takes his walks, is tough to strike out.

Why this isn’t translating to more production is probably the biggest question facing the Blue Jays this winter, but to me—and probably to a lot of teams—it always feels like he’s close. And, on this subject, I’m reminded of something I came across while writing Wednesday’s piece about the Jays deciding to stick with Guillermo Martinez as hitting coach.

In the spring of 2019, the Athletic's Eno Sarris sat down with Joey Votto to talk hitting, and at one point the conversation turned to the second half of Votto's 2018. By his lofty standards he had struggled after the break that season, slumping to just a 116 wRC+ despite generally getting better later on in seasons (his career second-half wRC+ at that point was 163, versus a 150 mark in the first half). While reading the following exchange I couldn’t help but think of Vlad, who in 2023 lost distance on his line drives and fly balls—barrelled or otherwise—as compared to 2021, with spin very possibly being an issue.

Sarris: You don’t like to talk about your mechanics, but did you find anything?

Votto: I clearly wasn’t hitting the ball for a lot of power to the center of the field, and that’s a technique thing. If you look at video, I had the tendency to release the barrel slightly early. And because I did it so often … in the past, the bat would lag, and would come through at more or less the right moment…

Sarris: Right before contact.

Votto: … And instead I was releasing a little early — a coach recently said “hit the inside of the ball,” and I think last year I was hitting the outside of the ball. I was coming outside the ball, my barrel was coming outside the ball.

Sarris: And that can still lead to a left-field hit, if you mishit it on the outside.

Votto: But it turns into, instead of a powered straight ball, a faded, hooking ball with topspin or fadespin. I want that ball that (whistles) looks like it’s taking off like a plane in the center of the field. I was looking at Tango’s page the other day and he was talking about how Mookie Betts started slightly pulling the ball more in 2018, and that to me, that’s real. If you have the tendency to hit the ball hard, so much of your success is going to be dictated by where you’re hitting your hardest balls. If you’re hitting them to the shortest parts of the park, you’re going to end up snagging some homers and getting those extra-base hits, I think. I think last year I ended up hooking and fading the ball too much. That zaps your power.

Sarris: Any sort of sidespin is taking away from that forward direction you need.

Votto: I had very few really hard-hit balls in the center of the field last year. Whereas in 2015 and 2016 and 2017, I had many hard-hit balls in the center of the field. Even if they were caught, caught at the track, fly balls, home runs, I didn’t have that.

Sarris: Batted ball spin is very frustrating to study as an analyst and probably as a player too, because it’s hard to manipulate …

Votto: Very!

Sarris: … but it’s meaningful to distance.

Votto: That’s not what I’m saying, that’s your comment. I don’t know.

Sarris: But you can comment on, as a player, whether or not it’s easy to manipulate spin. Hit the top of the ball, the bottom of the ball, the side of the ball — these are millimeters and you can be a millimeter off in your approach, mindset, mechanics, and it can be a huge difference.

Votto: Yes. I feel that way, yeah.

Hey, remember in that Martinez piece when I talked about hitters being experts at their own craft?

Anyway! As far as Vlad goes, the ingredients are there.

He also grades out as elite in a metric rolled out just this week by Robert Orr of Baseball Prospectus, who dove deep into what makes Corey Seager such a great hitter, attempting to quantify “selective aggression.”

I'll leave the methodology to him, but in the piece Orr says he measured Hittable Pitches Taken—the percentage of pitches that a batter should have been able to do damage on that he didn't swing at. Seager is well ahead of the pack in this regard, but out of 362 batters with at least 200 PA in 2023, Vlad ranked ninth (and, it's worth noting, Bo ranked 10th).

Data via @NotTheBobbyOrr

With all this stuff, and his age, going for him, even if Vlad hits free agency coming off of a down year, he’ll have no shortage or suitors. He might be looking at a pillow contract at that point, but that gives him another chance—or more—to have one big season and then cash in on a mega-deal. It worked exceptionally well for Marcus Semien two winters ago, and it’s going to work again this winter for Cody Bellinger.

That’s how I’d play it if I were him.

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I'd very much like to see if Davis Schneider can become one of the hitters this team needs. Was there any pattern to what the pitchers began throwing him when he stopped being the hitting wonder of his debut? Do you think he could be just one adjustment away, or did you see multiple issues? - Laura

Thanks for the question and the support, Laura! Schneider really was a desperately needed good story in 2023, and without his unexpected contributions I think it's very possible that the Jays' front office and coaching staff would look quite different right now. Some may not see that as a point in his favour—HEYO!—but it's very much put him in the conversation for a sizeable role in 2024. And it would be great if he could do it again.

You're right, though. he struggled once the calendar turned from August to September, particularly against right-handed pitching. Against lefties he was strong throughout, but his wRC+ vs. RHP went from 251 in 30 PA to just 72 in 57. Partly that's because his BABIP went from comically astronomical (.600) to quite poor (.241). More interesting to me, however, is that his strikeout rate went from 23.3% to 35.1%, and his walk rate from 20.0% to 8.8%.

Those are still such tiny samples that it's not easy to draw conclusions, but if we drill down there is one sort of interesting thing that I see.

In his 30 August plate appearances against right-handers, Schneider swung at the first pitch only twice. Then, in September, right-handers really increased how often they threw him 0-0 fastballs. He went from seeing first-pitch fastballs 57% of the time in August to 70% in September. This and the lack of swings meant that, though he ended up in 1-0 counts in fully half of his August plate appearances against right-handers, that rate went down to just 37% of the time in September.

This matters because whether a hitter is behind or ahead after the first pitch makes a huge impact on what follows. League-wide in 2023, batters in plate appearances that went to 0-1 produced just a 68 wRC+. For plate appearances that went to 1-0 that number was 129.

There was also a pretty clear change in the way Schneider was attacked by right-handers from one month to the next.

(L): August; (R): September

It looks to me like a simple matter of the league adjusting to him. They took advantage of his unwillingness to swing at the first pitch in order to put him behind in counts, and recognized that pitching him up in the zone—particularly up and in—wasn't working, and that they were better off trying to get him to chase low and away.

Now it's up to him to adjust back.

I wish I could say that it shouldn't be a problem for him to do exactly that, but unfortunately it might not be so simple.

It could be. We’d all love it if it was. But if Schneider stays the whole year in the majors he is probably going to see limited action against right-handers, and he's certainly not going to have another .600 BABIP run that makes him impossible to drop from the lineup. He'll have to fight his way into a bigger role, in all likelihood. And as easy as he is to like, as great a story as he was, objectively there are still question marks about what his 2023 really meant. He only played 14 games in August before things in the majors took a turn, and though he was a standout among his peers in Triple-A before that, it was in a league with an average walk rate of 12% and where the average ERA was 5.18.

I’m not trying to be pessimistic here, just realistic. And in that spirit I must also note that there’s positive that goes beyond his hot start and his minor league stats too, as you can see in the numbers below (which are shaded differently than Vlad’s above because Schneider didn’t qualify for the batting title). The power seems real, and if he keeps striking the ball on the sweet spot, taking his walks, and swinging at good pitches to hit—yes, the whiff rate is high, but he’s been better than most at laying off pitches out of the zone—he can be really productive.

We’ll just have to wait and see.

How great or not great is James Click, how sad or not sad should we be that Atkins is still running the show instead of Click, and how scared or not scared should we be about Click getting a GM job elsewhere? - Zach

Click is obviously a highly valued executive, otherwise he'd never have risen through the Rays' ranks the way he did, or been hired as the GM of the Astros. But it's impossible to say how much of a difference elevating his voice in the Jays' organization would make. It would also be a mistake to think that he’s not already a really important executive here as it is.

Click hasn’t been very public facing in his job, but he did talk to Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet back in the spring, calling his role on e that was “designed to be fairly broad,” and saying the he could foresee himself “being here for quite a long time.”

He added:

“One of the things that is important is stability,” he said. “I have two kids that are in elementary school, and providing stability for them is, if not my primary focus, one of the primary focuses that I have. It’s something that was really important to me when I was making this decision. And this is a role, an organization that I could very easily see being here for a very long time. That's my focus.”

Now, you wouldn’t expect him to say that he’s treating a new job like a stepping stone to another top baseball operations gig, but maybe the stability thing is sincere. He did spend 15 years with the Rays before joining the Astros, and when his status there became uncertain last year, the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal speculated that his next team might want to find him a role that would allow his family to stay in Houston.

Click also may not necessarily want to sit in the big chair again at this stage. Some don’t.

Tony LaCava turned down a chance to be GM of the Orioles in 2011, and has stuck with the Jays’ organization for 20 years now, working under three GMs (and wearing the interim tag himself after Alex Anthopoulos departed in late 2015), despite plenty of rumours and interviews through the years. And Ben’s piece tells us that Click’s role is “different by design,” giving him “the freedom to work with various departments without having to worry about telling a reliever he’s been optioned, for instance, or leading the way on extension negotiations.”

Maybe some of those are things he’d rather not do. Or can’t adequately do from wherever he wants to live.

Whatever the case, to answer your questions, Click seems like he must be pretty great, since he was basically able to write his own ticket, create his own role, and still shows up in rumours for top jobs—the recent Red Sox opening, for example. But I don’t think anyone should be sad that he’s here doing exactly what he’s doing, lending his expertise in a variety of areas and, as he told Ben, thinking about “where this game is going to be five years from now and 10 years from now” in order to ensure “this organization is perpetually competitive.”

I don’t think anybody should be scared that he’ll be hired away, either.

Talent comes and goes. There’s a ton of it in the game. And top jobs are so scarce that you’re always going to have candidates—and a process to find them. Let’s not turn him into another Eric Wedge here, eh?

Any idea why Jordan Hicks is not a fit, as we have heard rumblings of? He seemed great this season. Do you think he might be back? — Julie

My apologies for already covering a bunch of this in Monday’s Stray Thoughts, but thank you for the question. For those that missed it, my best guess is that is that Hicks isn’t a fit because it seems as though he feels he has unfinished business as a starter.

There could absolutely be more to the story than that, but some of the comments he made last spring about not getting a fair shot when he was pressed into the rotation late in camp in 2022—or not wanting to start in 2023, “but down the road, sure”—make that seem to be the case. Or they at least make it seem like he might be the kind of guy who doesn’t take it very well when he doesn’t get his preferred assignment.

Regardless, the bullpen seems set now that we know Chad Green will be back, and I can’t imagine them adding any other big-money arms to it. Hicks won’t return.

Are the Jays allergic to hiring managers with experience? Is Jim Fregosi the only time they hired one with experience? Would an experienced manager help? - Andrew

John Schneider managed 14 seasons in the minor leagues. Charlie Montoyo managed for 13. John Gibbons for seven. The only Jays managers who were appointed without previous managerial experience were Cito Gaston, Buck Martinez, and John Farrell.

One out of three ain’t bad!

Now, obviously you’re talking about managerial experience in the majors, and you’re not wrong that that’s a short list—Fregosi, Bobby Cox, and the second tenures of Cito and Gibby—but I think it’s important to point out that the Jays’ recent managers have been far from inexperienced. And I think Fregosi is a perfect example of why hiring experience for experience’s sake can be a mistake.

I’m not going to completely defend some of the Jays’ managerial hiring practices over the years. A lot of times inexperienced managers are hired because they come cheap or, I certainly suspect, because they’re more easy for a front office to control. And I wouldn’t at all be opposed to the Jays paying up and going after a star manager at some point down the road.

But I honestly don’t think they make all that much of a difference, and neither does the industry.

Somebody must have addressed this somewhere, but I haven't seen it.

Aside from skill evaluation issues, last year's big off-season moves mostly shipped out Latinos for white guys. Breaking up the Barrio wasn't just a metaphor for seeking a more businesslike, old school attitude in the dugout and on the field. Might this have an impact on the decisions of any Hispanic players the Jays might try to sign or *cough* extend?

This could just be a coincidence given the catcher surplus and elapsing control times, but it seemed strange to me that the D’backs would insist on getting Gurriel to complete a trade they would objectively 'win' just by swapping Varsho for Moreno. Lourdes wasn't worth a lot as trade chip, but including him there looked more like 'voluntary throw-in' than 'key piece.'

Love your work, Andrew. I've subscribed from the start and never regretted it. - Desmond D.

Thank you so much for your question and your support, Desmond!

This was a topic that came up last winter for sure, but it's hard to really know where to go with it. Considering how loaded terms like "old school" and "businesslike" are when it comes to nonwhite players, it's entirely fair to wonder about. But, as you point out, there were also quite clear baseball and business reasons for the choices the Jays made.

Gurriel's inclusion in the Varsho deal was definitely the most curious aspect of all this at the time, and looks even more odd after the season both he and the Diamondbacks had. The desire for culture change may have been part of the rationale for including him in the trade, but it's not difficult to find other factors as well.

Money could be one of those. Varsho made $3.05 million in 2023, and Gurriel and Moreno combined made $6.12 million—not a huge different in terms of an MLB payroll, but enough to free some cash to add a little to the piles being offered Brandon Belt and Chad Green at the time, or to take a chance on someone like Jay Jackson.

Another factor may have been the Jays' desire not to limit Varsho's development against left-handed pitching. Or maybe they wanted to really stick to their guns in terms of raising the defensive floor. Having Gurriel around would have made it easier to shield Varsho from tough lefties.

Perhaps it was more that they didn't understand how to get the best out of Lourdes, who was +14 DRS in left field in Arizona, while also setting a career high in home runs. I'm not sure those home runs would have happened here—not only because of the Jays’ supposed power-deficient philosophy, but because even in 2022 it felt like they were trying to turn him into some kind of a slap hitter. Though, to be fair, Gurriel's 106 wRC+ this season was actually a career low.

Another factor may have been that the Diamondbacks probably had more leverage in trade talk than a lot of people seem to think. The Jays maintained all last winter that they were comfortable going into 2023 with three catchers on their roster, but other teams would have understood that was absurd. The primary value that Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk, and Gabriel Moreno each bring is their ability to catch, and so to create a situation where each one would only be able to do that 1/3 of the time simply didn't make sense.

It would have been very poor roster management to keep all three, so the Jays really did need to make a trade. They didn't need to make this trade, necessarily. But by the time the deal actually happened a lot of the offseason was already in the rear view. Teams were solidifying their rosters by the day. The deals on the table likely weren't going to get any better if the Jays had let the situation drag on. And so I think it's actually plausible that the Diamondbacks really could have insisted on Gurriel. Why would they play nice?

As for whether this stuff might affect free agents' decisions this winter, I mean... I can't speak for those guys, but I honestly doubt it. We've already seen the Jays linked to players like Jorge Soler and Jeimer Candelario—a friend of Vlad's, which is surely a thing that would have more sway than any sort of perception of what happened last winter. And I think players will probably have a different view of the "old school" turn the 2023 Jays took than fans do anyway. For one thing, I know that this year fans missed seeing some of the lighthearted goofing around in the dugout we had become used to but, as Jays Twitter's outstanding Robin (aka @joyeful) astutely pointed out to me not so long ago, much of that absence may have been down to the fact that the pitch clock robbed us of a lot of the idle time that allowed the TV broadcast to focus on whatever the guys in the dugout were up to.

Plus, Ross Atkins is a Miami guy. He worked for years on the Latin American side of baseball ops in Cleveland. He speaks fluent Spanish!

So… yeah. I really don’t think we need to worry too much here.

If it was an option, would you put all your 2024 budget into Shohei and replace everyone else internally or on the cheap? - Jeff G.

Assuming by replacing everyone you mean filling the holes left by all of the Jays’ departing free agents, then yes. Absolutely.

I don’t think you’re selling Shohei on coming here if that’s your plan—for that you probably need, as has been suggested, a “unicorn” budget—but I don’t think you’re selling him on coming here regardless.

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Hi Andrew! Thanks for another fantastic season of coverage, even though the Jays season was anything but. I hope you’re well, and gearing up for an interesting offseason.

In my opinion, this Jays team has lacked the impact left handed hitters so many championship teams possess. The Astros had Alvarez/Tucker, the Braves had Freeman/Albies, the Dodgers had Seager/Muncy, and the Nationals had Soto/Eaton. While I’ll note this is not the only reasons these teams won, it’s notable to me that in the history of the sport, a game changing lefty or two have featured on most World Series teams.

Having said that, Ohtani, Soto and Bellinger appear to be the big fish this off-season. Considering the front office has some mending to do with the fan base, and money to play with, which of these players would you target and for how much (financially or trade)? Soto had been my pick since the Padres appear to be vulnerable, but would his defence hurt the Jays? Would Ohtani’s contract hurt more? Is Bellinger worth the Springer contract?

Just looking for your thoughts and amazing insight!

Take care! - Andre

Thanks so much for the question and the support, man! I'm doing great, and I hope the same for you.

I definitely get your point about left-handed hitters here, but I would say that's maybe a little too rigid a way to look at it. Obviously great hitters are great, especially from the left side, because there are more right-handed pitchers out there than left-handed ones. Lineup balance, as we saw as Jays fans from 2020 through 2022, can be really important as well. I think that in an ideal world the Jays would find a big left-handed bat to stick in the middle of the order this winter, for sure. But I also think that if Vlad, Springer, and Kirk were hitting like they did in 2021, they could have absolutely won the World Series with Belt, Varsho, and Biggio as the only lefties in their lineup.

So, let's be careful not to overrate this one particular thing. And I say this as a left-handed person! (Though I actually hit from the right side, Rickey Henderson style.)

But with that out of the way, yeah, the guys you mention are great players and I think the Jays should move heaven and earth to try to acquire them if they possibly can.

Not to be glib about it but, would Soto's defence hurt the Jays? I don't care. Would Ohtani's contract hurt more? I don't care. Is Bellinger worth the Springer contract? I don't care. And also, on this market, absolutely yes.

Any of these guys would be fantastic additions, and I'd be willing to spend as much of Edward Rogers' money—or, in Soto's case, prospects— to bring them here.

I'm not sure Ohtani—who will choose his landing spot—or Soto—who isn't likely to move, and if he actually does it will surely be to a team with a farm system better positioned to take the hit—are actually realistic though. Bellinger will have plenty of suitors as well, but my guess is that there's a better chance there if the Jays are willing to blow other clubs out of the water. Which probably means going beyond the Springer deal.

Would that be smart? I tend to be in the camp that worries about some of Bellinger’s Statcast numbers and thinks that there are probably better ways to spend a club's finite amount of dollars—and that's probably the way the Jays will end up going. But I also think it would be outstanding, and that future payroll issues will ultimately work themselves out. Swing big, Ross!

Hello Andrew,

This season felt like shit and I have no shortage of admiration for your ability to persevere through it.

To satisfy my depraved lizard-brain, can you concoct *any* Vlad trade scenario that makes the Jays better in 2024?

Thanks! - Conrad Bidet

Thanks for the kind words and the support, Conrad! Let me put it to you this way: if he continues to play the way he did in 2023, is there a realistic trade that doesn’t?

Do you like the playoff format or think it needs tweaking again? — Julie

For the time being I’m actually fine with it. Maybe some of that is just being resigned to the fact that they’re not changing it anyway, or that the thing that I’d probably most like to see—realignment, a balanced schedule, a greater emphasis on winning the regular season—is probably just too radical to ever actually happen. But the format proved quite fun this year. It also seems to be having some of the desired effect in terms of keeping fans in more cities engaged deeper into the season, and discouraging long, ugly rebuilds.

The World Series champion is more just “the winner” than “the best team,” and I suppose that’s a bit weird. But it’s also been the case for a long time now. It’s fine, as long as you embrace it.

As always, Stoet, you’re writing for me through this meat grinder of a year. Thanks for that. This is the best $65 I spend on baseball all year.

It would appear as though the Jays are set next year for pitching—both starters and relievers. I believe Jordan Hicks is the only reliever hitting free agency and Ryu the only starter. Maybe they could add to their starter depth, but I think we all know where they need to improve.

With that said, I want you to make a trade that would give the Jays back the offence they need. You could make a trade taking back a horrible contract in order to get the piece we need. Or use prospect capital. I’ll leave that to you. Looking forward to reading you thoughts. - Steve D.

Thanks for your question and your support, Steve! But, oh man, these ones are so tough. Like I said above, there are just so many variables at play. If you’re going to take it seriously, and not just throw a names together, it’s like you have to do a research project on every team to understand all the possibilities. Who has a surplus in one of the Jays’ areas of need? What can the Jays offer that might satisfy that team’s needs? What money is involved? How cheap is their owner? What else are they trying to accomplish this winter?

It’s a lot of work just to come up with something that 99.9999% of the time will never actually happen anyway, and will only make people question your sanity.

I could throw out a few smaller scale deals like I did above, but the big, splashy idea I think you’re looking for here? I honestly have no clue, and it hurts my brain to contemplate even starting down this road.

So I’m just going to take the lazy route here, unfortunately, and say that we should just wait until the Angels get inevitably rejected by Ohtani and make Edward Rogers pay for the rest of Mike Trout’s contract. We can give Anaheim whatever little it will take to get that deal off of their books and cross our fingers that the Jays’ High Performance department can work some magic with his health.

Excellent work Andrew on the Batflip as well as your podcast with Nick. My question is on umpiring. Is there any performance review of the work of individual umpires? In most industries, there are reviews, suggestions for improvement and, if those improvements are not implemented, then the employee is dismissed. That occurs in union environments as well as non-union ones. I’m sure that individual clubs have complained about the same umpires (e.g. Angel Hernandez) multiple times. Why is there no accountability? When will robot umpires be implemented in MLB? Thanks for all your work. Have a good offseason. - Paul

Thanks so much man! Believe it or not there absolutely are performance reviews for umpires. But you’re not wrong that whatever system is in place for this seems to fail, over and over and over, to rise to the level of actual accountability.

Here’s how Jeff Passan explained the process in a May 2022 article for ESPN.com:

Here's how the league's system works, according to sources: MLB employs a team of auditors to assist in its review of each game. The auditors set a unique strike zone for each player based on his setup in the batter's box. The top of the strike zone is his beltline and the bottom the hollow of his back knee, both determined when he's loading and preparing to swing. The margin of error is implemented off the corners -- 2 inches on each side of the plate.

The rationalization for the margin of error, which was collectively bargained between the league and the umpires' union -- the MLB Umpires Association declined comment -- was ostensibly due to the limitations of previous tracking technology but also buys umpires leeway in their grading. MLB currently employs a camera-based system to track its games, and it provides a wide array of data now seen as standard across baseball. Pitch velocity and movement, batted-ball exit velocity and launch angle -- each is measured by the 12-camera Hawk-Eye system installed in all 30 major league stadiums. While Hawk-Eye's margin of error is measured to be .16 of an inch, previous systems' was greater, and the umpires negotiated a so-called buffer zone of 2 inches on either side. Even with Hawk-Eye, that remains in place.

Furthermore, the umpires' union created a Zone Enforcement committee to double-check incorrect calls and file appeals to have the scoring of pitches reviewed. In 2021, about 30% of the pitches appealed, including those in which a pitcher misses his spot but still lands a ball in the strike zone to a scrambling catcher, were overturned.

With those parameters in place, the league breaks down pitches into three categories: "correct" calls, "acceptable" calls within the so-called buffer zone and "incorrect" calls. By MLB's calculations, the league-wide average for umpires on correct and acceptable calls -- belt to knees, 21 inches across (the 17-inch-wide plate plus 2 inches either way) -- was 97.4% in the 2021 season. The highest-ranked umpire, according to MLB, graded out at 98.5%. The lowest: 96%.

That all seems… not great. But things on this front do appear to be moving in the right direction. The automated ball-strike system was in use in Triple-A last year, and it’s only a matter of time before some version of it—either full-on robot umps, or a challenge system that still allows some of the human element—arrives in MLB.

Commissioner Rob Manfred said back in May that the system won’t be implemented for 2024, but Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported that the league would “seriously consider using their automated system as early as 2025.” David Lennon of Newsday added that “MLB’s power brokers are proceeding cautiously to make sure the system is as close to airtight as possible before an MLB rollout.”

Based on the numbers we saw this year in the International League, it’s definitely not ready yet. But I don’t think there’s any stopping it at this point. And since someone will still need to have to stand at home plate, even if they’re not calling balls and strikes, the union won’t be able to use job losses as a reason to push back.

In the meantime, let’s not lose sight of the fact that—even with velocity and movement that’s off the charts compared to years past—the standard of umpiring in the league is as high as it’s ever been. It’s a tough job.

How do I (slash we all) reconnect with my/our love of baseball? This season did not "spark joy" but baseball has brought a lot to my life over the years. I tried to lean in to the great pitching, which was nice, but even that was hard to enjoy as it felt like gem after gem was wasted by lousy run support. I had more fun watching the 2017 team get repeatedly shelled than I did this year...

I'm sure you were frustrated, too. Beyond this being your livelihood, what are you doing/thinking about to stay positive? - Argos

Thanks so much for the question and the support, man. To be honest, now that the offseason has started rolling, it’s been surprisingly easy.

Maybe that’s because the din of the conversation about this year’s team has finally died down—it felt for a while there like people had spent five straight months trying to one-up each other with how much piss they could make come out of their mouths, covering everything and everyone in piss—or maybe it’s just because we’re actually finally moving forward, but things genuinely do seem OK now.

This team still has good bones. The people in charge have better track records than many want to believe. There are plenty of fan bases that would trade where they are for where we are in a heartbeat.

That doesn’t mean that the Jays are about to make a bunch of moves that will unlock their ability to steamroll their way through the 2024 season and coast to a World Series championship, obviously. But we just watched the playoffs unfold. Even the best teams can’t do that. Baseball remains a game of adjustments—day-to-day, week-to-week, season-to-season—and the Jays seem poised to make some sensible ones.

I’m excited to see where it goes! Even if I’m maybe not quite so excited to see what happens if they make a trade everyone hates, or they lose a few games in a row next April.

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