Great stuff Stoeten. After sleeping on it, I've moved from "What the hell, this sucks!" to "Eh, it's fine, actually." It's really all about getting to the dance and I think this roster will get the job done. From there, if the bats heat up anything is possible. Giddy-up!
Time will tell I guess. Let’s just see how this plays out for everyone before getting all angst-ridden about it. Let’s focus back on the team. Anyone noticed that our bats have gone a bit quiet lately? And what is going on with Bichette and stolen bases compared to last year?
I find it really weird how easily some fans on Twitter will get into dumping on Bo this year, and yet... there's something to it. He's been bad. Really ought to be moved down the lineup at some point.
As for the bats as a whole, they weren't going to score 8 runs a game forever, so I'll give them a little more time before I get worried. But you're not wrong that it hasn't been the best couple of series for them.
The thing with Bo is that last year he stole 25 bases and was caught only once. This year he’s 7 and 7. That’s crazy! To be honest, I’ve never been a big fan of his. Not sure why. Would love to see them sign Trea Turner!
I listened to the fan 590 online yesterday for the afternoon counting down to the deadline, and even the radio coverage felt a bit like watching a local hockey game with that one person yelling "Shoot!" the entire time. It wasn't super fun to listen to but I wasn't going to turn it off as I was just as excited waiting for the deadline to come.
I wondered if the vaccine thing was an issue at all throughout the day, but then this whole Merrifield thing is happening and I don't know what to think.
Lol. Thanks man! I don't know if we'll ever know just how hampered they were by the vax status stuff, because it's a "medical" thing that nobody but the players themselves can really discuss, but I'm sure it didn't help. Having to get Merrifield despite his status speaks to how limited their pool was, I think!
I have a hard time believing his getting vaxxed isn't just a formality though.
Not saying the Jays wanted or planned for this, but how does the rule for restricted players work itself out here?
If I recall correctly, bringing someone up to make for a restricted player is an exception to all sorts of roster rules including IL minimums. If Merrifield is a minimal upgrade, than does, for example, being able to move guys on and off the roster without exposing to waivers when at home, offset what value you lose by not having Merrifield for those games?
I don't think the vaccine thing will be an issue at all, firstly. I'm also coming around on Merrifield — hit really well in July, seems to have been unlucky this year and his numbers dragged down be a slow start; he's hitting the ball just as hard as last year, and has the speed and defence to have been a 3 WAR player even with a below average bat in 2021.
As for the waiver thing, the Jays have plenty of guys on the 40-man with options who they could bring up and down as needed, so they wouldn't have to expose anyone if they didn't want to.
Yeah, don’t think vax status is gonna be an issue either. Was just thinking how funny it’d be if, after having to listen to hot takes from uninformed US media about the Jays having a supposed unfair advantage, the Jays could, even unintentionally, actually gain an advantage of some sort. But alas, I guess we’ll just have to make the playoffs by being a good team.
> If you had told me a month ago that at the deadline the Jays would add a couple of nice relievers, find some back-end starting depth, and added a versatile bench piece, I’d have told you that sounds about right. It probably is about right.
I dunno. I'd say it's the bare minimum to credibly claim to be competing. Needed a high-leverage reliever and more starting pitching than a depth/spot starter.
Despite numbers this year, I'm unconvinced Bass is a real-deal high-leverage guy. I'll believe Kikuchi's reinvention when I see it, and have to assume Stripling will regress to the mean - he's never been this good before, and it's unlikely he figured something major out at his age. Hopefully Berrios will get back to his old form, but if not, we basically have two pitchers we can credibly count on to start playoff games. That won't cut it.
It's thin gruel. Especially compared to the teams we will be facing in the playoffs.
I don't think it's so much about believing the most negative possible outcome as being prepared for some outcomes that are reasonably likely.
I'd say the contrary, really - the FO is banking on the most positive possible outcome - Kikuchi pitches ok, Berrios returns to form, "New Bass" is going to be here for the rest of the year despite never pitching this well before, Stripling continues his unprecedented success and is on the IL for the minimum, etc.
I hope they're right and I'm wrong, but this is baseball. Likely the truth will lie in between.
I think we can all agree predicting the future is impossible. But to default to drawing a straight line from the past into the future as a reason to doubt the likelihood of improvement or even see the past as the maximum from which someone can only fall away from isn’t a particularly compelling argument. Not even an argument really. More of a bias.
And, no offence, but the “truth lies in the middle” routine is even lazier than the both-sides framing.
If you're unable to believe in Berríos, the most consistent pitcher in baseball for about a half decade before the start of this season, I guess I understand why you're having a hard time believing in anybody else here.
Thing is, you call it "the bare minimum to credibly claim to be competing" when they're already majorly competing — they're 80% to make the playoffs (and I'd argue on true talent are not far behind the Yankees, even if the record doesn't show it). They're banking on what's already here, as they should. There was a reason they were projected to win the division at the start of the year.
No, they didn't make massive swings at this deadline, but they have very nicely filled in gaps with a couple of high-leverage pieces — don't sleep on Pop, and Bass has had a meaningful results change resulting from meaningful changes to where he stands on the rubber and how often he throws his best pitch, which makes this all much easier to believe in that you give credit (and even the "Old Bass" would be helpful here) — and starter with an ERA and FIP both under 4.00.
It's fair to be underwhelmed, but those are really solid adds. And if you took a similarly "realistic" view of other teams I think you'd end up in a similar place. The Yankees sold incredibly low on Gallo, traded a perfectly competent starter for an injured outfielder with a .303 on-base and no power, and replaced that starter with a guy coming off very recent shoulder problems. Thin gruel?
I think even before Atkins spoke yesterday it was fairly clear that this was probably not 'Plan A' for the Jays, and we'll probably never know whether the moves they were able to make were Plan C, D, E or whatever. But as much as everyone gets hung up on the 'get it done league' thing (and it was a good line) of course it's not actually that simple and it's probably quite difficult to have your fallback positions sort of prepped and know when it's time to pivot to those rather than keep after something that's not going to work.
All of which to say while it would have been a lot more fun to see the Jays add Luis Castillo and Iglesias or something, you don't have to jiggle the focus too much to see that as far as Plan X goes, this was all right.
I think that's just about right, yeah. And as the Merrifield thing illustrates -- something I should have noted in the piece! -- the vaccine stuff may have really limited their options on some of those other plans. That they had (or "had") to trade for an unvaccinated guy is pretty wild.
Stripling to the IL today - which makes trading Castillo harder to swallow. I can't believe they couldn't have worked out a deal for Merrifield that didn't include one of their only depth SPs (one who Eno Sarris just said on the Athletic 3-0 podcast immediately becomes one of KC's best young pitchers, and a guy he's excited about.)
I think being one of KC's best young pitchers is damning with some pretty faint praise, but I know what you mean. Seems that people are kind of split on Castillo, with a lot still seeing a reliever there ultimately. Been impressive this year in the minors and the big league numbers look decent, but are a bit of a mirage. I can't say they sold high because I think Merrifield sucks, but not overly concerned, myself. I completely understand your stance here though too!
Ok your rationality has made me a little less disappointed. But to have only raised the floor when the ceiling also went up feels like it wasn't totally a win-now deadline. The moves are solid, not sexy and I think we all wanted something a little sexy. I still have tons of optimistic belief, but a little less certainty about it. Also, is Tapia really that bad at CF? From the eye test he looks perfectly adequate.
He's actually been OK by Outs Above Average (+1) in CF, but overall in the OF he's in the 12th percentile. His "outfield jump" is even worse (9th percentile), and he's just not as fast as he looks — 74th percentile speed, which is lower than Teoscar, Springer, and Biggio. DRS and UZR do not like him there, or in the OF overall, either. So... yeah, I think it's safe to say he's bad!
Great stuff Stoeten. After sleeping on it, I've moved from "What the hell, this sucks!" to "Eh, it's fine, actually." It's really all about getting to the dance and I think this roster will get the job done. From there, if the bats heat up anything is possible. Giddy-up!
That's the spirit!
Time will tell I guess. Let’s just see how this plays out for everyone before getting all angst-ridden about it. Let’s focus back on the team. Anyone noticed that our bats have gone a bit quiet lately? And what is going on with Bichette and stolen bases compared to last year?
Gotta get on base to steal bases!
I find it really weird how easily some fans on Twitter will get into dumping on Bo this year, and yet... there's something to it. He's been bad. Really ought to be moved down the lineup at some point.
As for the bats as a whole, they weren't going to score 8 runs a game forever, so I'll give them a little more time before I get worried. But you're not wrong that it hasn't been the best couple of series for them.
The thing with Bo is that last year he stole 25 bases and was caught only once. This year he’s 7 and 7. That’s crazy! To be honest, I’ve never been a big fan of his. Not sure why. Would love to see them sign Trea Turner!
I listened to the fan 590 online yesterday for the afternoon counting down to the deadline, and even the radio coverage felt a bit like watching a local hockey game with that one person yelling "Shoot!" the entire time. It wasn't super fun to listen to but I wasn't going to turn it off as I was just as excited waiting for the deadline to come.
I wondered if the vaccine thing was an issue at all throughout the day, but then this whole Merrifield thing is happening and I don't know what to think.
Thanks for the coverage!
Lol. Thanks man! I don't know if we'll ever know just how hampered they were by the vax status stuff, because it's a "medical" thing that nobody but the players themselves can really discuss, but I'm sure it didn't help. Having to get Merrifield despite his status speaks to how limited their pool was, I think!
I have a hard time believing his getting vaxxed isn't just a formality though.
Re Merrifield
Not saying the Jays wanted or planned for this, but how does the rule for restricted players work itself out here?
If I recall correctly, bringing someone up to make for a restricted player is an exception to all sorts of roster rules including IL minimums. If Merrifield is a minimal upgrade, than does, for example, being able to move guys on and off the roster without exposing to waivers when at home, offset what value you lose by not having Merrifield for those games?
I don't think the vaccine thing will be an issue at all, firstly. I'm also coming around on Merrifield — hit really well in July, seems to have been unlucky this year and his numbers dragged down be a slow start; he's hitting the ball just as hard as last year, and has the speed and defence to have been a 3 WAR player even with a below average bat in 2021.
As for the waiver thing, the Jays have plenty of guys on the 40-man with options who they could bring up and down as needed, so they wouldn't have to expose anyone if they didn't want to.
Yeah, don’t think vax status is gonna be an issue either. Was just thinking how funny it’d be if, after having to listen to hot takes from uninformed US media about the Jays having a supposed unfair advantage, the Jays could, even unintentionally, actually gain an advantage of some sort. But alas, I guess we’ll just have to make the playoffs by being a good team.
> If you had told me a month ago that at the deadline the Jays would add a couple of nice relievers, find some back-end starting depth, and added a versatile bench piece, I’d have told you that sounds about right. It probably is about right.
I dunno. I'd say it's the bare minimum to credibly claim to be competing. Needed a high-leverage reliever and more starting pitching than a depth/spot starter.
Despite numbers this year, I'm unconvinced Bass is a real-deal high-leverage guy. I'll believe Kikuchi's reinvention when I see it, and have to assume Stripling will regress to the mean - he's never been this good before, and it's unlikely he figured something major out at his age. Hopefully Berrios will get back to his old form, but if not, we basically have two pitchers we can credibly count on to start playoff games. That won't cut it.
It's thin gruel. Especially compared to the teams we will be facing in the playoffs.
I mean, if you're going to believe the most negative possible outcome on everything then yeah it probably seems bad.
I don't think it's so much about believing the most negative possible outcome as being prepared for some outcomes that are reasonably likely.
I'd say the contrary, really - the FO is banking on the most positive possible outcome - Kikuchi pitches ok, Berrios returns to form, "New Bass" is going to be here for the rest of the year despite never pitching this well before, Stripling continues his unprecedented success and is on the IL for the minimum, etc.
I hope they're right and I'm wrong, but this is baseball. Likely the truth will lie in between.
I think we can all agree predicting the future is impossible. But to default to drawing a straight line from the past into the future as a reason to doubt the likelihood of improvement or even see the past as the maximum from which someone can only fall away from isn’t a particularly compelling argument. Not even an argument really. More of a bias.
And, no offence, but the “truth lies in the middle” routine is even lazier than the both-sides framing.
If you're unable to believe in Berríos, the most consistent pitcher in baseball for about a half decade before the start of this season, I guess I understand why you're having a hard time believing in anybody else here.
Thing is, you call it "the bare minimum to credibly claim to be competing" when they're already majorly competing — they're 80% to make the playoffs (and I'd argue on true talent are not far behind the Yankees, even if the record doesn't show it). They're banking on what's already here, as they should. There was a reason they were projected to win the division at the start of the year.
No, they didn't make massive swings at this deadline, but they have very nicely filled in gaps with a couple of high-leverage pieces — don't sleep on Pop, and Bass has had a meaningful results change resulting from meaningful changes to where he stands on the rubber and how often he throws his best pitch, which makes this all much easier to believe in that you give credit (and even the "Old Bass" would be helpful here) — and starter with an ERA and FIP both under 4.00.
It's fair to be underwhelmed, but those are really solid adds. And if you took a similarly "realistic" view of other teams I think you'd end up in a similar place. The Yankees sold incredibly low on Gallo, traded a perfectly competent starter for an injured outfielder with a .303 on-base and no power, and replaced that starter with a guy coming off very recent shoulder problems. Thin gruel?
I think even before Atkins spoke yesterday it was fairly clear that this was probably not 'Plan A' for the Jays, and we'll probably never know whether the moves they were able to make were Plan C, D, E or whatever. But as much as everyone gets hung up on the 'get it done league' thing (and it was a good line) of course it's not actually that simple and it's probably quite difficult to have your fallback positions sort of prepped and know when it's time to pivot to those rather than keep after something that's not going to work.
All of which to say while it would have been a lot more fun to see the Jays add Luis Castillo and Iglesias or something, you don't have to jiggle the focus too much to see that as far as Plan X goes, this was all right.
I think that's just about right, yeah. And as the Merrifield thing illustrates -- something I should have noted in the piece! -- the vaccine stuff may have really limited their options on some of those other plans. That they had (or "had") to trade for an unvaccinated guy is pretty wild.
Stripling to the IL today - which makes trading Castillo harder to swallow. I can't believe they couldn't have worked out a deal for Merrifield that didn't include one of their only depth SPs (one who Eno Sarris just said on the Athletic 3-0 podcast immediately becomes one of KC's best young pitchers, and a guy he's excited about.)
I think being one of KC's best young pitchers is damning with some pretty faint praise, but I know what you mean. Seems that people are kind of split on Castillo, with a lot still seeing a reliever there ultimately. Been impressive this year in the minors and the big league numbers look decent, but are a bit of a mirage. I can't say they sold high because I think Merrifield sucks, but not overly concerned, myself. I completely understand your stance here though too!
Ok your rationality has made me a little less disappointed. But to have only raised the floor when the ceiling also went up feels like it wasn't totally a win-now deadline. The moves are solid, not sexy and I think we all wanted something a little sexy. I still have tons of optimistic belief, but a little less certainty about it. Also, is Tapia really that bad at CF? From the eye test he looks perfectly adequate.
He's actually been OK by Outs Above Average (+1) in CF, but overall in the OF he's in the 12th percentile. His "outfield jump" is even worse (9th percentile), and he's just not as fast as he looks — 74th percentile speed, which is lower than Teoscar, Springer, and Biggio. DRS and UZR do not like him there, or in the OF overall, either. So... yeah, I think it's safe to say he's bad!
Miss your writing man
Alright then. Go Whit!