If Juan Soto turned down $350 million from the Nationals, the Jays probably shouldn't wait a year to extend Vlad
Plus some news and notes!
Just a quick one today, 1) because it felt good to get back into the rhythm of writing, and 2) because I really wanted to write about something that wasn’t the dumb CBA and lockout stuff. I mean, I did include some CBA/lockout stuff in a little news and notes section off the top, but I mostly wrote about the massive payday coming Juan Soto’s way and what it means for Vlad.
So let’s talk about it!
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News and notes
Just a few quick notes from around my Twitter feed the league before we get to the good stuff…
• After some uncertainty about when the two sides would return to the negotiating table, late here on Wednesday afternoon, Evan Drellich of the Athletic reported that the league and the union will get together again tomorrow, at which point the players will submit yet another proposal. I guess we’ll see how that goes!
• Speaking of Rob Manfred holding the game of baseball hostage, there was a great piece today at Baseball Prospectus from Patrick Dubuque and Craig Goldstein, in which they took a step back from the gory details of the recent CBA and minor league-related squabbles and simply articulated what has been so frustrating for fans throughout this process. They really got to the heart of the matter here:
Ultimately, it is simultaneously baffling and obvious. Whenever something doesn’t make sense, the answer is money. So, too, in this case, and it’s easy enough to grasp. But then there is already so much money in the game. The owners have already won, societally, many times over. It can’t help but get under our skin. We’re all here, yearning to love this romantic, deeply flawed game. And they’re over there, having put us on the sidelines, telling us over and over again to stop it. To stop fighting for it. To just let them bleed it dry, but still please buy the merch. It’s exhausting trying to give them an abundant garden when they want to scorch the earth, and you have to wonder when people will stop trying.
Bleak, but on point. And bonus points for using this tweet/Dayton Moore quote regarding the idea that further reductions to the minor leagues could be coming.
• ICYMI, yesterday I wrote a piece that covered similar territory, but must admit that mine probably got a little too bogged down in the gory details. I also forgot to use the Moore quote!
• An often forgotten angle when we talk about games being needlessly missed is that it doesn’t simply affect the lives of fans who want to watch their teams, but it has tangible impact on a whole lot of peoples’ lives. Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times wrote about the anger that’s being felt in Arizona right now, as spring training games seem almost certain to be cut, which is bad for tourism in places that often spent millions to lure or keep MLB tenants, or to refurbish their facilities. I suspect the folks in Dunedin are similarly upset, considering how much that community has (some might say foolishly!) given to the Jays and Rogers in recent years.
• Just gonna leave these here.
• Worth remembering!
• HOUSEKEEPING: Keep your eyes out for a prompt for mail bag questions later in the week, as I think it would be a good idea to aim for one early on next week.
• Lastly, since we’re about to talk about Vlad contract stuff, I thought I should re-up this piece by Shi Davidi from earlier in the offseason, which makes the case that the time is now for the Jays to extend Vlad and Bo. I agree! Hey, and speaking of…
Pay that man his money
On Wednesday afternoon, Enrique Rojas of ESPN Deportes reported that Washington Nationals outfielder Juan Soto turned down a 13-year, $350 million contract extension prior to the lockout. And did so for good reason. Soto is just barely 23 years old, was one of the top three offensive performers in baseball in 2021, and is on track to reach free agency after the 2024 season, when he will be about to enter his age-26 year.
Blue Jays Nation contributor, Jays Twitter staple, and all-around good guy Brendon Kuhn has already done the math for us on this.
In subsequent tweets, Brendon explains that he came up with this number by estimating Soto will earn about $16 million in 2022 (MLB Trade Rumors projected him at $16.2 million back in October), with his final two arbitration years escalating to something like $23 million and then $30 million. That’s about $70 million for those years, leaving $280 million for the rest — and I think that’s just about right.1
He adds that “Corey Seager, an inferior (thought still very good) player with a history of health issues, just got 10/$325M for his age 28-37 years.”
Crazy as this sounds, the Nationals’ offer might have been $100 million south of what it would have taken to get Soto to bite. He’s an incredible hitter with an outstanding track record and youth on his side. At age 23, both the ZiPS and Steamer projection systems see him as the best offensive player in the game. He’s going to get paid.
He is also, obviously, an interesting comparable for the Blue Jays’ Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
There are some key differences, of course.
• Vlad is about the same age as Soto (he turns 23 next month), but is a year behind him in terms of service time. This means Vlad won’t reach free agency until after 2025, when he’ll be entering his age-27 season.
• MLBTR projects Vlad to earn $7.9 million in arbitration for 2022, which is a lower starting point than the $8.5 million Soto made in 2021.
• Vlad exploded in 2021, topping Soto by a measure of 166 wRC+ to 163, but his first two seasons in the majors were underwhelming — at least compared to his track record of phenomenal minor league success. Soto, on the other hand, has been a stud in the big leagues since day 1, posting wRC+ marks of 146, 143, and 201, before his 163 this past season.
• Soto is a capable outfielder, giving him more defensive value than Vladdy. And, of course, when you’re thinking about Vlad’s long-term prospects, his ability to keep himself in shape remains a concern.
Add up the present value, the track record, the defensive value, plus the fact that he’s a year closer to free agency, and it’s pretty clear that Soto is a player who would command more dollars in a contract extension than Vlad would. I think the bigger question, though, if you’re the Blue Jays, is how much might that gap close in a year?
Put another way, if Vlad has another superstar calibre year in 2022, and if another offseason of hard work puts questions about his conditioning further behind him, how far off will he be from the guy who just turned down a $350 million deal?
Not a lot, I don’t think!
Vlad still won’t have the defensive value, and he’ll be a year older than Soto is today, but he’ll have the same three years left until free agency, and his track record will be that much more solid. He also, like Soto, will have already banked some real money — which is actually rather important.
Having been allowed to achieve Super Two status makes both of these cases differ from those of Fernando Tatis Jr., who signed his $340 million extension in February 2021 while still a year from free agency, or Ronald Acuña Jr. and Wander Franco, who signed $100 million and $182 million deals respectively while each had multiple pre-arbitration years left.
If the Jays wait a year, Vlad will have this year’s $8 million in the bank, plus $12 - $16 million likely coming his way for 2023. That’s enough of a nest egg to potentially make someone feel pretty good about simply going year-to-year through arbitration before testing free agency at an incredibly lucrative young age. Especially someone with a father who already made a $125 million fortune in the game — but also not even! According to Rojas’ report, that’s precisely what Soto and his agent, Scott Boras, say they want to do.
In other words, it is indeed possible that the Jays have already waited too long here, or that it was never going to be possible to get Vlad signed to a mega-deal. I don’t know. Only Vlad knows, ultimately. But what I do know is that, while making him a contract offer in this sort of stratosphere we’re talking about carries some risk right now, if he’s what we think he is, what the team seems to have always believed he is, and what the projection systems say he is2, it’s potentially going to save the team some serious cash — er… future payroll flexibility — to get a deal done now.
And while, obviously, I’m not out here trying to take money out of Vlad’s pockets and put it into those of Edward Rogers, I very much do want to see him get paid, get life-changing financial security and, most importantly, be a member of the Toronto Blue Jays for a long, long time.
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The current record for highest arbitration salary belongs to Mookie Betts, who earned $27 million in 2021. I think it’s entirely feasible that we could see the record increase to $30 million by 2024. Assuming arbitration isn’t completely overhauled in the new CBA or something!
Maybe, just maybe, the Jays don't want to extend Vlad. Perhaps they think they'll get maximum performance out of him over the next few years and by his walk year, there might be a similar young internal talent ready to take his place, so to speak. Maybe?