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An excellent deep dive thought piece getting into Joe Pos territory! There's a lot to digest here. There's also the randomness of baseball to consider. More than any other sport it seems, there is a random element that is always present year to year - players coming out of nowhere to have career years, superstars not living up to expectations, unknowns rising to the fore while can't miss prospects fail. Poor teams doing well and consensus picks disappointing. I'm sure it happens in every sport, but it seems amplified in baseball. Maybe it's the length of the season and the individualness of the sport. The random element (which ultimately is a human element) drives me crazy - and all the digging into advanced stats doesn't seem to be able to quantify it. But how boring would baseball be without it?

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In fact, this was some of your best writing. It ranks right up there with the piece you did for DJF about Gibby getting Devon Travis to bunt when he was on a hot streak. I still think that was deserving of a Pulitzer.

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