Just a quick one on Bichette's new deal: a likely three-year, $33.5 million pact that may not be the extension we wanted, but perhaps is the extension we deserved...
All fair comments. I just wish they were prepared to go more for the Alex Anthopoulos route. I realuse that ownership has been more supportive of loosening the purse strings over the past few years, but I find it hard to believe they'll turn into the LA Dodgers North any time soon when it cones to paying out megs contracts for all 3: Vladdy, Bo, AND Manoah.
My understanding was the incentive for the player to sign a long-term pre-FA extension was to manage risk - give up the possibility of a bigger payday in FA for the cash certainty in case of injury, underperformance, etc.
Does it still make sense for him to consider an extension with this contract in place? Does an extension have to increase the payout in what would have been his arb years beyond what he's currently guaranteed?
Or do you see the negotiation of an extension now becomes primarily about what the FA-buyout looks like and is basically just as likely (maybe easier, because the arb years have been sorted, if we're saying they don't need to be re-opened)?
It definitely still makes sense for him to consider an extension. He currently has zero cash certainty for any of his free agent years, and the Jays can still offer him that.
I honestly don't know what it would look like. Sometimes deals like the one he just signed get restructured in a longer extension, sometimes not. It just depends on what the two sides come up with.
I don't know if it's easier or harder. I suspect there's no difference. But I know that the idea that this essentially closes the books on his Jays career and sends him toward free agency is absurd! If the Jays offer him enough money for a bunch of FA years to make it worth not going to FA he'll sign — same as it ever was.
Great update! You mention that the deal average impacts their luxury tax bill this year, but conversely, that averaging helps them in year three. I would think the FO has an eye on getting under the cap in the next year or two to reset the rate.
I heard Jeff Blair a few weeks ago talking about this and he suggested he "wouldn't be surprised" if the Jays were prepared to let both Bo AND Vladdy play into their free agency years and not bother to extend them. Not sure what to make of it. Certainly, they are not taking an Anthopoulos-like approach by extending their stars well before they hit their free agency years. The longer the team waits, the less leverage (assuming, of course, that both Bo and Vladdy perform up to expectations). We'll see. I'd like to see them taking the risk of extending a few of these guys (would also LOVE to see the team extend Chapman, who appears amenable to staying in Toronto). But we'll see.
You could well be right. As I said, I'm guessing (and hoping), but haven't got a clue (that's why I subscribe to you! LOL)
Every team is prepared to let every player walk. Nobody gets to write his own paycheque.
The longer the team waits the more certainty the team has about how valuable the player really is, and the Jays have said since the day Shapiro and Atkins got here that they're comfortable paying closer to market rates in exchange for that certainty. Sure, they might not eventually choose to pay the price it's going to take to retain Bo and Vlad, but that's no different today than it was yesterday, and clearly they're setting themselves up to have that kind of money available for *somebody*. There's just nothing remotely troubling about any of this.
In another sense, however, doesn't this make the likelihood of a long term extension for Bo less likely. Both sides get rid of the BS/endless drama associated with annual arbitration submissions. And Bo gets a nice degree of financial security before his clear path to free agency in 2026. Does he have any incentive to negotiate a longer term extension now that he has this deak in place?
I wonder whether there was some discussion of a longer term deal. But as things stand today, it increasingly looks like the Jays front office is prepared to let Bo walk after this contract is done. I wonder if that's the plan for Vladdy as well?
All fair comments. I just wish they were prepared to go more for the Alex Anthopoulos route. I realuse that ownership has been more supportive of loosening the purse strings over the past few years, but I find it hard to believe they'll turn into the LA Dodgers North any time soon when it cones to paying out megs contracts for all 3: Vladdy, Bo, AND Manoah.
My understanding was the incentive for the player to sign a long-term pre-FA extension was to manage risk - give up the possibility of a bigger payday in FA for the cash certainty in case of injury, underperformance, etc.
Does it still make sense for him to consider an extension with this contract in place? Does an extension have to increase the payout in what would have been his arb years beyond what he's currently guaranteed?
Or do you see the negotiation of an extension now becomes primarily about what the FA-buyout looks like and is basically just as likely (maybe easier, because the arb years have been sorted, if we're saying they don't need to be re-opened)?
It definitely still makes sense for him to consider an extension. He currently has zero cash certainty for any of his free agent years, and the Jays can still offer him that.
I honestly don't know what it would look like. Sometimes deals like the one he just signed get restructured in a longer extension, sometimes not. It just depends on what the two sides come up with.
I don't know if it's easier or harder. I suspect there's no difference. But I know that the idea that this essentially closes the books on his Jays career and sends him toward free agency is absurd! If the Jays offer him enough money for a bunch of FA years to make it worth not going to FA he'll sign — same as it ever was.
Great update! You mention that the deal average impacts their luxury tax bill this year, but conversely, that averaging helps them in year three. I would think the FO has an eye on getting under the cap in the next year or two to reset the rate.
Good point!
I heard Jeff Blair a few weeks ago talking about this and he suggested he "wouldn't be surprised" if the Jays were prepared to let both Bo AND Vladdy play into their free agency years and not bother to extend them. Not sure what to make of it. Certainly, they are not taking an Anthopoulos-like approach by extending their stars well before they hit their free agency years. The longer the team waits, the less leverage (assuming, of course, that both Bo and Vladdy perform up to expectations). We'll see. I'd like to see them taking the risk of extending a few of these guys (would also LOVE to see the team extend Chapman, who appears amenable to staying in Toronto). But we'll see.
You could well be right. As I said, I'm guessing (and hoping), but haven't got a clue (that's why I subscribe to you! LOL)
Every team is prepared to let every player walk. Nobody gets to write his own paycheque.
The longer the team waits the more certainty the team has about how valuable the player really is, and the Jays have said since the day Shapiro and Atkins got here that they're comfortable paying closer to market rates in exchange for that certainty. Sure, they might not eventually choose to pay the price it's going to take to retain Bo and Vlad, but that's no different today than it was yesterday, and clearly they're setting themselves up to have that kind of money available for *somebody*. There's just nothing remotely troubling about any of this.
In another sense, however, doesn't this make the likelihood of a long term extension for Bo less likely. Both sides get rid of the BS/endless drama associated with annual arbitration submissions. And Bo gets a nice degree of financial security before his clear path to free agency in 2026. Does he have any incentive to negotiate a longer term extension now that he has this deak in place?
I wonder whether there was some discussion of a longer term deal. But as things stand today, it increasingly looks like the Jays front office is prepared to let Bo walk after this contract is done. I wonder if that's the plan for Vladdy as well?
It doesn't.
But seriously, it absolutely doesn't.
I hope you're right.
No need to hope! It absolutely does not look more like they're prepared to let Bo walk.