🔊LISTEN: Winter Recap/Spring Preview w/Tall Can Audio
PLUS: Quick thoughts on Bregman to the Red Sox, early camp notes, and more!
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The image above is not quite hitting as hard as it would be if he already had the correct gear—not a big deal BTW1—or as hard as it will when he makes his first appearance at Rogers Centre this season, but what we’re looking at above is Max Scherzer in a Dunedin parking lot, making his way to the Blue Jays’ Player Development Complex here on Thursday as pitchers and catchers officially report for the beginning of Spring Training. Hell yes.
Scherzer, of course, is the most recent addition to a revamped Blue Jays roster. Unfortunately, more and more it looks like he will be the last—at least in terms of significant adds. Mostly, that’s because late on Wednesday night it was announced that the Boston Red Sox have plucked the last true peach from the free agent tree, bringing aboard Alex Bregman on a three-year, $120 million deal with three opt-outs and enough deferred money to bring its present value down to $90 million.
Alex Bregman, welcome to your George Springer years!
Seriously though…
An AAV of $30 million makes more sense here for Boston, but it doesn’t quite move this one out of the realm of weird. Especially taking the fact that the Red Sox will apparently be shifting him to second base into account. But, honestly, you can chalk most of what I’m saying here up to cope. Bregman was still a four-win player last year, and there’s proooooobably not much of a chance he ends up leaving the Red Sox on the hook for pricey additional years by declining the opt-out after this season. And Fenway could be a great landing spot for him, as he’s produced a 234 wRC+ there over 98 career plate appearances, which actually jumps to 264 since 2020 despite the decline in his overall performance since that time.
Small sample or not, I hate it. Good things should not happen for the Boston fucking Red Sox, the AL East just got that much tougher, and he would have been an outstanding fit—especially on this deal—for a Blue Jays club that’s on track to give a ton of 3B at-bats to Ernie Clement, who, god love him, is an excellent defender but precisely the kind of limp, below-average bat they still have too many of in their lineup.
It doesn’t take the sting out of it, either, to learn after the fact, per Bob Nightengale, that the Blue Jays “were used only as a stalking horse, and were never involved in the bidding at any juncture.” (Don’t tell that to Jomboy, though! He’d rather beclown himself trying to dunk on the Jays for no reason than go after the many, many, many teams who have spent this entire winter not even trying to spend money. Worthless!)
Anyway, ho hum, the Jays have exited the winter with a roster that feels like it’s just a little bit short of where it needs to be. Who could have seen it coming?2
Now camp is here, everybody’s record is the same, there’s plenty of room for hope and optimism (despite a certain player’s upcoming deadline that could very much change that), and we’re actually getting real news and updates about the team. Drink in the excitement before we all start remembering what a six week slog of praying no one gets hurt feels like.
Some notes…
• Per Keegan Matheson, Erik Swanson has experienced forearm fatigue and, according to manager John Schneider, may be “a little behind.” He adds that there's optimism that there's time for him to be ready for Opening Day, which... you'd certainly hope so. Partly that's for Swanson's sake, who really deserves to get his season off on the right track after what happened last year, when his son was hospitalized after being hit by a car during the spring. But also because Swanson has the potential to be an important weapon against left-handed hitter for a Jays’ bullpen that very thin on left-handed relievers.
From 2021 to 2023, Swanson held lefty swingers to OPS’s of .696, .517, and .610 respectively before the number, amid a rough season overall, ballooned to .860 last year. The good news: from July 1st onward the number dropped to .457. (Also good: Nick Sandlin similarly has the ability to be that kind of right-handed weapon against lefties, as Arden Zwelling detailed in a recent piece for Sportsnet.)
• Keegan also tells us that, according to Schneider, Daulton Varsho is up to throwing at 90 feet. His timeline remains a bit cloudy, ‘but it feels like he could use a little extra time.’ Schneider lists Joey Loperfido, Nathan Lukes, Jonatan Clase, and George Springer as potential options to handle centre field in Varsho’s absence and... man... that’s a tough list if you're Myles Straw. Gotta feel for the guy, at least as much as you can feel for anybody pulling in $11 million over the next two years.
• Two others from Keegan…
• I’d emphatically type JUST SIGN HIM ALREADY here, but I do think Ben Nicholson-Smith is right in his must-read Sportsnet piece on the Vlad situation—and in his and Arden Zwelling’s must-listen At The Letters episode about it—when he games out how the whole deadline thing will most likely work.
In baseball, these negotiations tend to remain unresolved until close to the deadline, and that’s likely the case here. If you’re Guerrero Jr., why accept anything now if there’s a chance of a better offer in three days? And anticipating that approach, the Blue Jays may choose to wait, too. More likely, meaningful talks happen later this week and over the weekend, even if both sides already have a good idea of how far they’ll bend.
For the record, I’m still uncomfortably optimistic about this.
• Speaking of Sportsnet, Shi Davidi also has notes from Schneider, telling us that Bo Bichette is ready to go. Per Schneider: “Bo looks like Bo, which is really, really refreshing. We kind of operated without one of [our] best bats last year in Bo. So having him back is going to be big.”
• Also per Shi, Schneider says that Will Wagner is ready to go and “will see time at third and first this spring.” That, I feel, is probably not being done with a view to having him spend a ton of time at third this season. Maybe! Could be! I certainly understand giving him a look. But he’s not really a third baseman—he’s more, to me, like the Swiss Army knife guy they always wanted Cavan Biggio to be.
Wagner has only played at third 29 times over the last two seasons combined, and last year Statcast placed his arm strength—albeit while playing second, where he wouldn't have had to really air it out necessarily—in just the 18th percentlie, with a max velocity of 83.9 mph. That's not completely unworkable at third—Isaac Parades had that as his max as well, and of the 61 players with at least 50 throws at third in 2024, 14 were below Wagner’s mark, including Bregman and José Ramírez—but give me Addison Barger slinging it 96.3 on average with a 100.6 mph max. Both of those marks ranked first among that same group.
I’d also like Barger to hit a ton, if we’re wishcasting here. Which we are.
And now our feature presentation…
OK! This was just going to be a quick one about my appearance on the latest episode of Tall Can Audio, but evidently a bunch of stuff happened. I may even need to post another one today, depending on what Ross Atkins says when he meets with reporters later here on Thursday.
In the meantime, I had a great chat on Wednesday afternoon with my pal Matt Robinson about all of the twists and turns of the offseason, the big decision that still looms over an otherwise refreshing-ish start to a pivotal season for the Jays, and everything in between. Except, you know, all the stuff that’s happened since.
So give Matt a follow on Twitter or on Bluesky, and have a listen! You can do so in any number of ways, including at his site, or at all the usual podcasts sites, like Spotify…
…as well as Apple Podcasts, etc.
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The below was about Mets fans getting mad at Nick Madrigal (for some reason), but Rooker’s point stands!
My big picture predictions from back in September still looking solid:
Ross stays on as GM ✅
Mattingly’s job title changes ✅
Bo doesn’t get traded ✅
Schneider is back ✅
Trade involving the Buffalo Boys ✅
We talk about a six-man rotation too much ✅ (Only because of Griff’s fixation).
The roster comes up a little bit short ✅
Vlad gets his extension, but we have to wait for it ❔
Seven down, one MASSIVE one to go!
The Swanson news is ominous. Anything to do with forearm soreness is a concern. Hope not, but I think they should get another reliever.