Mail bag!
Answering questions on D.J. LeMahieu, George Springer, David Price, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., new stadium rumours, and much, much more!
Ahoy hoy! Before we get to opening the mail bag, I wanted to once again thank everyone who has been reading, who has signed up for the mailing list, and who has become a paid subscriber to the site so far. I’m two weeks in and loving absolutely everything about my new home here — except, perhaps, the constant thoughts of how to keep those paid subscriber numbers growing, but even that is going well so far. So, thank you again everybody, and please keep on subscribing and sharing.
It has, once again, not been a great week to be a Blue Jays fan — and not just because they announced a five-year contract extension for Mark Shapiro. HEYO!
The Jays’ activity on the free agent and trade markets remains nonexistent (“finishing second” all over the place doesn’t count, sorry), and while D.J. LeMahieu returning to the Yankees always seemed inevitable, it doesn’t feel good to see more and more free agents coming off the board. (Hey, and apparently the Phillies are finally making their big push for J.T. Realmuto.)
It’s probably worth remembering, though, that it felt an awful lot like this last year before the Jays pulled off the Hyun Jin Ryu deal. But I don’t think doing so is going to change anything about the mood out there. We’re just going to need a big transaction.
Let’s gooooo already.
Now on to the questions. As always, I have not read any of Griff's answers.
“Is this the offseason to hand out a contract that will "win" a free agent? Six years for D.J.? Awesome he got that, but does that deal work with Toronto's window? It's frustrating to watch players go off the board, but a few of the deals I can at least understand why Toronto didn't get the player. Some of the class from next year looks pretty good, and one more year of internal development could be very beneficial. To actually include a question in this; Does the D.J. deal mean that Springer also likely gets 6 years? And if so, is that a deal the Jays should make? Thanks Griff!” — Adam Lee
I don’t think that LeMahieu’s deal with the Yankees, reported to be for $90 million over six years, is going to have much of an impact on the length of Springer’s deal, because the extra years seem to mostly be about keeping the Yankees’ luxury tax number as low as possible.
Whether a team is above the luxury tax threshold or not isn't simply based on their actual payroll. The league uses the average annual value of any long-term contracts a team has on its books, rather than what those players' specific salaries that year are. I'd expect LeMahieu will earn a lot less in those last years of the deal, which helps keep the average down for the Yankees and will also make it easier for them to release him if he fails to perform in his age-36 or age-37 seasons. The $90 million figure is about what you'd have expected to see him get on a four year deal too.
Springer may get six years from someone, but the Jays’ payroll isn’t near enough to the luxury tax threshold for them to bother with that kind of a convoluted scheme, I don’t think.
As for waiting a year, I really don’t think that’s an option. Hyun Jin Ryu isn’t getting any younger, for one thing. For another, the Jays have made it clear that they intend to get better this winter, and the opportunity — dwindling though it may be — is right there for them. They’re an up-and-coming team in a great city with money to spend. It may not feel like it because of the deals that other teams have been making all around them, but they’re a really attractive destination for free agents right now.
"Hey Andrew, great to have you back. Given our immediate need to upgrade the rotation and the current options available, do you foresee the possibility of a return of David Price to Toronto (or interim locale)?" — Darth BlueJay
I’m not sure it’s possible to find a Blue Jays fan who doesn’t love David Price, and I’m no different. Turns out the feeling is still mutual, too.
But I don’t think I’d hold my breath on that one.
Sure, the Dodgers don’t really need Price, having five perfectly great starters already in Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Dustin May, Julio Urías, and Tony Gonsolin. And it’s true that Price tweeted a video on Tuesday with the caption “Never felt better!!” So he looks like he might be ready to go this year. But that’s still up in the air at the moment. Plus, he didn’t pitch in 2020. He threw only 107 1/3 innings in 2019, and two seasons prior to that was only able to make 11 starts.
He’s also 35, and nothing I’ve ever heard about the Jays’ decision not to push harder to re-sign him after 2015 didn’t in some way involve the fact that his arm was considered a pretty big health risk.
Hopefully for his sake — and for baseball’s sake, because it’s a better sport with him in it — the worst is over. Still, even with the Red Sox due to pay half of his $32 million salary in each of the next two years, a two-year deal worth $16 million per season is likely more than he’d be looking at if he was a free agent this winter. A team isn’t just going to take that contract off the Dodgers’ hands. L.A. would have to eat money to make a deal happen.
It’s possible that they would, just for the sake of clearing the bulk of it off their books, but a healthy Price could also be yet another real weapon for them, so I’m not sure that’s in their interest.
But I’d love to see it happen.
Hey, and how about the Jays offer Tanner Roark for Price? The Dodgers save $4 million this year, $16 million next year, then move Gonsolin back to the bullpen and make Roark their fifth starter. SOMEONE GET ANDREW FRIEDMAN ON THE PHONE, STAT!
"Glad you’re back! In the never ending discourse about Vladdy’s position, why does corner OF never come up? I think he profiles better out there than corner IF with his arm. Historically, bad defenders get stuck in corner OF (see: Ramirez, Manny; Canseco, José). He seems a bit short and lacking in footwork to be at 1B and I don’t know how much more we need to see of him at 3B to conclude it’s not likely gonna work." — Bryan
I suspect this is mostly because he’d likely be really bad in a corner outfield spot. You’re not wrong that poor defenders have been sent to outfield corner spots before — though I should note that Canseco not only had enough speed to steal 40 bases in his 1988 40-40 club season, he somehow stole 29 bases (!!?!) for the Blue Jays in 1998, the year he turned 34 — but that’s not really the norm.
Also, Vlad is listed as 6’2 and has played all of 34 games at first base as a professional, so I’m going to give him a pass on both the height issue and the footwork — which I think he definitely still has time to improve, considering he doesn’t even turn 22 until March.
More to the point, though, do you remember how awful it was to watch Teoscar Hernádez butcher his way through the 2018 season in left field? Well, there’s nothing about Vladdy that makes me think sticking him out there wouldn’t be worse. Sure, Teoscar has improved since then and seems to have taken well to playing in right, but since 1B/DH is going to be Vlad’s long-term position anyway, I’m perfectly happy to not have him have to try to learn a third position on the fly as a big leaguer.
"I've always been a fan of Mike Wilner — his game calling is enthusiastic and he doesn't suffer fools — so I am sorry to see him go. Any thoughts on a replacement? It seems like J.P. Arencibia has been hanging around the Jays a bit and he might be a good fit. Siddall seems underutilized on the TV side. What's Alan Ashby up to these days?" — John McCullagh
I’m with you on being bitterly disappointed about Wilner’s departure, but I can’t say that I’ve had a lot of thoughts on who his replacement might be. Ashby was great, and I’m not sure what he’s up to at the moment, but Houston is definitely home for him, so I don’t see a return happening there. And Joe Siddall is terrific, but I don’t think you see a lot guys move back to radio once they’ve got a sweet TV gig like his, so I probably wouldn’t expect that one either.
My former colleague Kaitlyn McGrath put together a great list of potential candidates for the job back in December at the Athletic. Some fun names on there! And an interesting tidbit about Jason Grilli being offered the chance to call 80 games back in 2018, which he declined in order to spend time with his kids, while not ruling out a broadcasting career in the future.
"What member of the Springfield Power Plant team from "Homer at the Bat" would be the best fit for the Jays this year?" — Steve
Well, based on the various things that happened to most of them during their time in Springfield, I guess the answer has to be Darryl Strawberry. If you’re talking about before they signed up as softball ringers though, I’m going to go with my heart and not my head and choose Ken Griffey Jr. over Roger Clemens.
"LeMahieu or Springer? I get why Springer would be a nice addition, but I'd be happier with LeMahieu and supplementing the D with a cheaper Jackie Bradley Jr (who has always hit well in Toronto and will anchor a subpar OF defense). Move Biggio to 3rd and then finish the job by signing Kluber, Walker or both. Thoughts?" — Marshall Auerback
Well, it’s a moot point now that S̶p̶r̶i̶n̶g̶e̶r̶ LeMahieu has signed with the Yankees (which always seemed like it was going to happen anyway), but your plan here would have been an alright one as well. I don’t put any stock at all in the fact that Bradley Jr. has hit well in Toronto, but he’s certainly an excellent defender, and would add another lefty bat to a lineup that tilts fairly heavily to the right side. But adding Springer and someone like Kolten Wong appeals a lot more to me because I believe in Springer’s bat more than I do LeMahieu’s (at least when he’s not playing in a joke stadium).
Kluber, Walker or — especially — both sounds good to me though!
"Hey Andrew, I think at the beginning of the off season the front office said that one of their goals was to improve their defense/ run prevention. If they miss out on the biggest free agents (which I hope they don’t), do you see them possibly targeting defensive upgrades over bat first options? I’m thinking JBJ in center, Wong at second, upgrading the pitching (through trades, hopefully not Bauer). Maybe this season they see what they have in Bo at short for a full season, and determine if they want to sign one of the many options next off season if they think that would make the team better?" — Ron
As I said in the response above, something like this would very much work for me as a fallback (though I do still like some of the non-Bauer free agent pitchers out there). And I think you’re right, given the shortstops that will likely be available as free agents next winter, that giving Bichette a full season there is probably the best idea now that we know Lindor isn’t coming here.
"Failing to understand why Ole paid 35 million quid for Donny van de Beek only to leave him on the bench game after game. I can only watch two of Fred, Matic or McTominay on the pitch at the same time so many more times. What gives?!?" — Jeremy B
Hahaha. Right!?! I saw someone say the other day that buying him was like buying a winter coat in the spring, and I think that’s absolutely bang on. People seem to think he’ll eventually get his chance, but it’s definitely been tough to watch (in soccer terms, that is, not as compared to *gestures broadly* literally everything else going on in the world). Especially because, like you, I don’t think he lacks the quality to play there.
I thought this recent piece from SB Nation’s United blog did a great job of pinpointing the problems he’s having and why Ole just can’t find a way to use him at the moment.
"Is it OK to feel OK about some of these signings going another way? Is it Stockholm syndrome? I just think the Hendriks deal? Nah. Sugano looking to opt out at any opportunity? A sacrifice for one year of Lindor this year? That might be the one, but still, it's hard to sort through impatience from legit disappointment." — MGM
I don’t think Sugano would have been looking for opt-outs in a contract here in North America (those were in the Yomiuri deal so he can choose to jump to the majors again in a year if he wants to), but otherwise you’re right. You can add the Yankees’ deal with D.J. LeMahieu to the list, too.
Yet, while I’m sure Jays fans are by now sick of The Andrew Friedman Quote, it really is quite true, so I’m going to use it again here. Look away if you have to.
"What's the thing you're most looking forward to at the ballpark, once we're allowed to get back in?" — Gabe Lerman
This is maybe weird, but honestly it’s the languid energy of the crowd around the start of a game, before everyone really settles into their seats and the baseball things get serious. Just basking in the sun with thousands of little interactions between people unfolding all around me. The kind of stuff that TV cameras could never capture.
"Could Biggio put in the work to become a quality CF? His lefty bat would play there." — Jay M
I would never say never on that, because I definitely didn’t believe Kevin Pillar would ever turn into an elite centre fielder. But Biggio doesn’t have the speed of Pillar at his best (Pillar’s 2015 sprint speed to first base was 28.7 feet/second; Biggio’s in 2020 was 27.7 ft/s), and he’s never looked like anything more than passable out there to me.
So, while it’s intriguing, I think he’s probably best in the sort of super-utility role everybody seems to have always wanted to see him in.
"I really hope they sign George Springer (the team will be better), but I've always wondered about the bitter complaining about Grichuk. I've seen the metrics and the like, but to me eyes he played pretty well, especially given the uncertainty (got better) of the other two outfielders. Is Springer a solution looking for a problem?" — Ian Petrie
Springer is definitely more about the bat than the glove, but while Grichuk definitely seems passable in centre, Springer is a pretty clear improvement. This came up in last week’s mail bag as well, where I wrote “As a part-time centre fielder in 2019 and 2020 Springer was +13 runs by DRS compared to Grichuk's -6. He was +3.5 by UZR compared to Grichuk's -3.2. And he was +4 by OAA compared to Grichuk's +1.”
Those sample sizes aren’t great, and some of Springer’s prior numbers made him out to be more average-ish. But that’s still better than what Grichuk can give the Jays out there. And with an elite and incredibly consistent bat to boot.
"The decision to keep — and promote! — Vancouver as an affiliate is a boon to west-coast Jays fans, like me. That said, I have no idea who to look forward to watching play for the C's with the minors shuffle (presuming a season happens). Anyone in particular stand out who is going to be playing at the Nat?" — Rivers
As I said on Twitter at the time, while it sucks to have lost Lansing’s great and enthusiastic broadcaster Jesse Goldberg-Strassler, the Jays absolutely made the right move by keeping Vancouver in the fold, and I’m definitely excited for the folks out there to get a chance to see top Jays prospects when they’re farther along.
This year is a little tough to gauge in terms of where guys are going to be assigned, because we know so little about what anybody was able to do, development-wise, last summer. So, to answer your question, I’m going to cheat a little. Future Blue Jays does a lot of great work on the minor league front, and over there they’re projecting Elvis Luciano and Adam Kloffenstein as at least starting the year at New Hampshire (while noting that “Kloff pitched in 2020 in the Indy Constellation Energy league in Texas, where he received some tutelage from the legendary Roger Clemens). They also have last year’s second-round pick C.J. Van Eyk pencilled in there as well.
Roster Resource, which is now housed at FanGraphs, also projects levels for notable minor leaguers, and while I could see the Jays being a little more aggressive than they are (for example, I think the team may well have been impressed enough with catcher Gabriel Moreno at their camp in Rochester last summer to send him right to Double-A), it gives a pretty good idea of where some of the bigger names are likely at. Beyond Moreno, they have Otto Lopez, Alek Manoah, and Josh Winckowski projected for Vancouver. And there is a bunch of talent projected for A-ball in Dunedin that could make the jump mid-season — most notably Orelvis Martinez and Miguel Hiraldo.
I wouldn’t be surprised if you guys got an early look at post-Tommy John Eric Pardinho, either. Exciting times! If, as you say, the season actually happens.
"Will the Dumbs ever get over the messy divorce with AA... 5 1/2 years ago. Or will they continue to flail their tentacles in their own filth about ‘The Cleveland Crew’" — Didymus Henley
If the Jays actually win something, or get really good on a regular basis, I’m sure that will fade for a lot of people. Or maybe it will do a complete 180 — like a whole lot of people’s opinions on Anthopoulos did at the 2015 trade deadline. But being reflexively negative is a good way to make it look like you have a personality, or well thought out opinions, and those types don’t ever seem to tire of being wrong most of the time. So no, they’re probably not going away.
"I've had the good fortune of visiting Dunedin during spring training the past several years (including a seriously lucky 2020 — I left the day before the league shut down) and the updated Dunedin Stadium is great. But I anticipate the pauvre Yankees whining again about the lights. Should be interesting. But this humblebrag is burying the lede of wondering why they didn't take advantage of this past year and install muddafuggin grass in the Dome?! I know it's probably not that simple, and, of course, a new stadium would be sweet — but is very likely a long ways off still — meaning grass now would still have some ROI me thinks - UNLESS A NEW STADIUM IS COMING SOONER THAN LATER?!?!? I'm interested in your thoughts <3" — Christ on a Bike
I’ve put these two questions together because they were basically on the same topic
Let the Yankees whine if they’re going to whine, I say. They’re not the ones playing every single home game in a minor league park like the Jays did last year.
As for the grass thing, you’re definitely right that it’s not that simple. The Jays didn’t even know they’d be playing in Buffalo until July! They also had to spend a ton of money to make that situation big league ready. So I don’t think they can be faulted in the slightest for not somehow finding a way to get grass down. Plus, given that we’re in the middle of a pandemic, it’s probably best to just hold off major stadium changes like that anyway. Can you imagine if they were halfway through the project when suddenly all construction sites had to be locked down because of COVID?
Sure, the chances of that happening are pretty unlikely considering our province is being run by a bunch of incompetents beholden to developers, but it’s really important that Rogers Centre is ready to go when the team is. I don’t think squeezing in major upgrades during a pandemic is realistic.
As for the new stadium, Rogers basically threw cold water on the notion of that happening anytime soon almost immediately after the story broke. Again, the pandemic. But just because that’s on hold doesn’t mean that we’re going to see any sort of major investment in the current stadium. That would be pretty hard to justify, I think.
"Was there any more news on that Globe story from before Christmas suggesting a new stadium deal was imminent? The story seemed to drop off the radar within a day was never spoken of again." — Andrew
As I mentioned in the answer above, these plans seem very much on hold at the moment. Back in December, in an excellent and detailed report for the Toronto Star, Josh Rubin quoted Rogers spokesperson Andrew Garas as explaining, “Prior to the pandemic, we were exploring options for the stadium but through this year our primary focus has been keeping our customers connected and keeping our employees safe, so there is no update on Rogers Centre to share at this time.”
Rubin also reported that Rogers was lobbying various members of the federal government in the summer of 2019, though according to the federal lobbyists’ registry there hasn’t been contact since. One of the people Rogers was in touch with was Spadina-Fort York MP Adam Vaughn, who acknowledged as much to Rubin. So, they’re serious. Or they were. And there’s no doubt in my mind that they will be again.
Even though it’s a complicated deal involving multiple levels of government and potentially multiple large developers, there’s plenty of money to be had in what was being proposed — not just for Rogers but for the Blue Jays, the government, and the developers as well.
It could especially be a boon to the Jays, though. Revenue made from the newly built condos, office space, and retail is money that “a team doesn’t have to share with the league or players. It’s their own. It can make a huge difference to a team’s income, and add to their franchise value,” according (via Rubin) to David Carter, the principal at the Sports Business Group, founding partner of Altius Sports Partners, and associate professor of sports business at the University of Southern California’s Marshall School of Business.
When the pandemic is finally over, definitely expect to hear about this stuff again.
"Extending the core -- any sense with this dreadfully slow offseason if there's any work being done behind the scenes regarding extending the core? It sure fits in with cost certainty the front office loves. It also makes good use of time when free agent market is frozen. I look at the Guriel deal and why he has so much trade value is because of that cost certainty. Let's get some of our studs extended!" — Seth
I have no idea if there’s any work going on in this regard behind the scenes, but you’re right, it would definitely be nice. Typically it’s stuff that doesn’t happen until the more pressing off-season business is attended to, though. And, as we all know, the fact that the Jays’ most important youngsters are the sons of guys who made tens of millions playing the game, selling off future free agent years in exchange for guaranteed money may not exactly be a pressing issue for them either.
"With the Jays losing out on Lindor, could the signal be they'd rather spend in free agency next off-season as other teams revenues remain low instead of trading for expiring contracts?
“As you've suggested, they're a little further away from their competitive window so a year of Lindor wasn't useful, especially if it disrupts Bo's development." — Rob Coates
No, I think it’s more just a signal that they weren’t willing to meet Cleveland’s demands for Lindor. The Bichette situation is definitely an interesting one, and I can’t imagine they’ll be asking him to move off shortstop for anyone who isn’t already one of the best in the game, but it’s not exactly that a year of Lindor wasn’t useful, it’s that pushing hard for him only made sense to a point. And it made more sense for the Mets, who temporarily have all that Robinson Canó money off the books and are trying to make a big splash under their new ownership.
I’m sure the Jays will have money to spend again next year regardless of what they do this winter. And because Lindor is on a one-year deal, if they had landed him it really wouldn’t have changed anything about next winter anyway. His money would have been off the books.
“I'm wondering how much the aspect of probably not playing in Canada is affecting the players on the Jays and players on the Jays radar this off-season.
I understand that the free-agent market has been very slow-moving this year due to a number of economic factors but the Jays seem to be in on everyone and no one knows where they are playing this year. Buffalo is probably not an option this year as I assume the Bisons need to play there.
Dunedin has been upgraded, many of the players live there, and the new facility seems to be top-notch but the training facility is still almost 6km (a 10min drive) from TD Ballpark. Although the new Dunedin park looks great for a low-A or Spring Training venue, no one could confuse it with a major-league ballpark. The Jays players can't be thrilled at playing 81 (or 60, 40 or whatever number) at that venue instead of the big-league spaces they're used to.
Thoughts on what may happen? Do you think it's affecting free agents like Kim, Springer, Bauer (yuck!), et al with their decision?
Long-winded question, I know - but WELCOME BACK!” — JasLerx
Thanks so much for the kind words and the excellent question. Thing is, I honestly don’t think it’s very likely that the uncertainty about where the Jays are going to play has had anything to do with the free agents they’ve missed on so far. Whether we’re talking about Ha-Seong Kim, Tomoyuki Sugano, or Liam Hendriks, the issue seems more to have been that the Jays held firm on their valuations and the players took more appealing deals elsewhere.
I don’t think it’s had anything to do with why they haven’t signed someone like Springer yet, either. The Jays may be out there making aggressive offers, but my sense is that they’re still not meeting the prices of any of the high end guys available — nor should they, because it doesn’t seem like anyone else is yet either.
That’s not to say that the team potentially playing in Dunedin for some or all of the season couldn’t still become an issue for one of the big free agents, I just don’t think it’s nearly as big problem as worried Jays fans tend to make it out to be. It’s like the idea that players don’t want to play in Canada. That’s undoubtedly true in some cases, and probably does hurt the Jays at times. But only when the front office isn’t willing to offer enough to make the player change his mind.
“How do you think the recent scandal(ish) news regarding pitchers using substances for grip will affect the market for Trevor Bauer? He was really vocal about his experiments to increase his spin rate, and voila, his spin rates skyrocketed and he became elite. Do you think GMs might be worrying that if the MLB cracks down he'll turn back into a pumpkin? Are there any other pitchers who jump to mind who might be more impacted than others by such a crackdown - or will everyone be similarly exposed?” — Player to be Named Later
I imagine it will have zero impact on Bauer’s market, and that there will be nothing resembling a crackdown. We’ve all seen pitchers who look like they’ve dumped a gallon of sunscreen on their non-throwing arm. So have opposing teams. But nobody ever calls anyone on this because their own guys are doing it too. I mean, can you imagine what kind of an absolute chump you’d have to be to be vocally against this stuff while quietly benefitting from it yourself? *COUGH*
Brittany Ghiroli and Eno Sarris of the Athletic wrote about the league’s widespread “pine tar problem” just this week, and they began the piece by talking about MLB’s experimentation in the spring of 2019 with a ball that comes tacky out of the box. That’s the way they do it in Korea and Japan, whereas MLB balls come out of the box slick and need to be rubbed up with a particular type of mud — the only substance that’s technically allowed on them.
In other words, the industry is moving toward being more permissive about this stuff, not cracking down on it.
“If the Jays can pull off a miracle and bring Springer into the fold, what do you think of the idea of flipping Gurriel and prospects to Cincy for Suárez? Maybe add more and go for Castillo? Assuming they're interested, what prospects do you think a haul like that would take? And no I don’t want to lose Gurriel but Grichuk isn't bringing anything back.” — Chris
First off, I don’t think it would be a miracle for the Jays to sign Springer. It might not even be a long shot at this point.
As for trading with the Reds, I don’t think outfield help is what they’re going to be looking for. They’ve got Nick Castellanos, Jesse Winkler, and Aristedes Aquino already vying for time in the corners, with Shogo Akiyama and Nick Senzel also on the roster as centre fielders. Plus, while there is plenty to like about Suárez, I’m not sure the Jays ought to be locking him in for the next four seasons at third, even if the contract is relatively reasonable (he’s owed $45.5 million over that span, including the buyout on his 2025 club option). The defence will likely only go down from here, and the high strikeout rates make me a bit uncomfortable.
And Castillo? He would be an incredible get for any team if the Reds are really going to put him on the market, but it’s hard to see the Jays parting with the kind of package it would take to get him. Of course, if the Jays were willing to take on Mike Moustakas and the $52 million owed to him over the next three years, maybe they could make it work. Apart from a blip in 2017, Moustakas's defensive numbers at third have been beyond passable the last several seasons, though the Reds primarily used him at second base last year. He can be a liability against left-handed pitching, but the Jays have plenty of right-handed bats, so adding another lefty certainly has some appeal. The Jays had interest in him as a free agent last winter, too.
The problem there is that, as with the Lindor deal they missed on, the Jays don’t really have any big league infielders to offer back. But if taking on Moustakas to save Cincinnati some dollars and get a more palatable deal on Castillo is a possibility, they should definitely look into it. I still tend to think they’d be better off solving their problems with money rather than prospects, though.
" Just basking in the sun with thousands of little interactions between people unfolding all around me. The kind of stuff that TV cameras could never capture."
Gold.
I think I missed the under-the-radar Simpsons references the most #ahoyhoy