Mail bag: On Springer's signing, Martin's future, Realmuto, Vlad Jr., the pitching staff, TV ratings and more!
Ahoy hoy! It's been a whirlwind week for the Blue Jays and things look like they may well get more exciting from here. How fun is that?
I got so many questions this week that I couldn't even get to them all, which I apologize for, but which I love so much because it means we're building a great community of paid subscribers around here. I feel great about the first three weeks of the site, so thank you so much everybody. And don't worry, the questions I skipped were either just repeats or involved Michael Brantley!
Now on to the questions that I did get to! As always, I have not read any of Griff's answers.
With George Springer signed, do we now focus Austin Martin full time to the infield and let him develop as a third baseman along side Jordan Groshans? A little top prospect race for third while the runner up replaces Biggio at second? — Corey H
I think it’s possible that Martin continues to play the infield, but not because of anything to do with Springer. I think the ability to play centre is something that Martin will continue to have in his back pocket, so even if the team mostly plays him in the infield for now, he may still ultimately end up out there anyway.
I also don’t think that Springer is going to be the Jays’ primary centre fielder for more than two or three years. What makes the Springer signing such a great one is that his bat absolutely plays even if you slide him over to right — and he has the arm to make that work.
The big thing I think about these kinds of questions though, which come up a lot, is that fans are really quite invested in the idea of Jordan Groshans being a pretty good big leaguer. No doubt there is a whole lot to like about his profile, but let’s maybe not forget that he’s just eight months younger than Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and has only played for about a month above rookie ball. Sure, he was at the Jays’ alternate site in Rochester last summer, and 2020 is a hard year to factor in, but there is a lot of risk there.
Eric Longenhagen expressed concerns along these lines earlier this week in his list of the top 39 Blue Jays prospects for FanGraphs. He doesn’t seem convinced that Martin will be able to stick in centre, either. Though it’s worth noting that FanGraphs is definitely on the low end when it comes to their view of Jays’ system. Other sites seem to be a little more bullish.
This is currently less of an issue with the news that Brantley is going back to Houston, but do you think the organization would consider Gurriel in the infield again? He had a rough go at second base, but he played short for a reasonable time (not great of course), but do you think he could he be a potential in-house option at third or second? — WAMCO
David Singh of Sportsnet has a great piece fom some point in 2019 (Sportsnet’s “Big Reads” pieces inexplicably have no date on them) about Gurriel’s transformation into an outfielder early that summer after a demotion to Buffalo. At the time, none of the people Singh spoke to were ruling out the possibility of Gurriel at some point returning to the infield, and he continued to get occasional reps in at second base during his time in Buffalo. So even though he played exclusively in left field last year, I couldn’t say that it’s off the table.
Would it be a worry to try him out back at second? I think absolutely. Not only because he seemed to struggle so badly in 2019 at getting comfortable with the short throws the position requires, and because his defensive problems seemed to weigh on him and interfere with him on the other side of the ball, but because he’s looked so much like he’s found his home in the outfield since making the switch.
Third base I would be a little more comfortable with. But, really, I’d only want to see the Jays consider if if they completely strike out on the free agent and trade markets. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it, right?
While they are in the business of acquiring high end talent, is there a possibility of getting José Ramirez from the Clevelanders to fill the hot corner vacancy? What would a hypothetical trade look like? — Joe N.
Ramírez is an incredible player, obviously, but is Cleveland really doing a full-on tear-down? I think they would have taken the Jays’ offer for Lindor — which reportedly included higher ceiling prospects, but ones that were farther away from the big leagues than what the Mets were offering — if that was the case. Still, it couldn’t hurt to ask, even if the price would be pretty astronomical.
Thing is, their current WAR projection at FanGraphs puts them just behind the Rays and the Red Sox for 10th place in the American League. That’s not great, but it only puts them eight wins behind the White Sox, seven behind the Angels, and six-and-a-half behind the Twins. They're right in that awful "if everything breaks right we could have a chance" zone that the Blue Jays lived in for most of the past 20 years. That might be enough incentive for them to not choose to fully bottom out.
Which, frankly, I think is for the best. If the Jays have money to spend — and it sure appears as though they do — that’s a much better way for them to improve than by trading prospects, in my view.
While SP and 3B remain our more pressing needs, I can’t quit Realmuto. Total stud in his late prime, would need something like 5/120-6/140. Jansen becoming close to JT is a 99th percentile outcome, Kirk’s body comp at age 22 is literally “Jose Molina at age 40” (Longenhagen, E.), and the rest are far off at a notoriously difficult position to develop. Is there any realistic scenario where in addition to Springer we sign Realmuto and fill SP/3B through trade? Do you think the Jays will be loathe to lose another draft pick after Springer and avoid such free agents? So great to have you back! — James
Thanks for the kind words man, but I gotta say, draft pick?? I suspect the bigger issue among the Jays’ front office would be handing out a second nine-figure contract. Three days ago this franchise had given out only one of those in its entire history (Vernon Wells), now we want them to hand out two in one off-season?
True, Rogers can afford it, even amid a global pandemic. And this winter offers a great opportunity to the Jays to be aggressive. But I just can’t let myself get carried away and believe a thing like that is actually something they’d do.
Great player, though. You’re not wrong about that. I think you’re too down on Jansen and Kirk, but Realmuto is certainly much, much better.
Here's a question at the risk of considerable scorn and abuse, but can an argument be made that Vlad Jr may be a liability to the teams' lineup moving forward? His offence is still a bit of an unknown and regardless of his weight loss and fitness, his defence and baserunning are liabilities. He profiles best as a DH, but we potentially have quite a few DH candidates now clogging up that position. — OzRob
I do understand why someone would ask the question, but we’re talking about someone who proved he was too good for the minor leagues by age 19. He hasn’t failed as a big leaguer so far, either. Vlad has a 107 wRC+ over 183 games that have all come before his 21st birthday. He produces exit velocity at an elite level, he’s tough to strike out, and though he’s had a little bit of a tough time finding his stroke here early in his career, bet against him at your peril. He may not exactly feel like a can’t-miss prospect anymore, but that’s a whole lot different from being a liability — no matter where he plays on the diamond. The number of guys who could struggle their way to a 107 wRC+ over 183 big league games at that age is minuscule.
Does Springer's role in the 2017 trashcan cheating scheme affect your enthusiasm for the signing? I am finding it hard to be happy to have him on my favourite team even though he is a very good player. — Dave
I completely understand why it would affect enthusiasm for some people, but I wrote about this in my piece on Thursday about the Springer signing, where I argued that the Astros scandal is a whole lot more complicated than MLB would like it to look. I’m not going to let that define Springer for me, personally. He seems like a pretty great dude.
With the flurry of news in the last week, it's hard not to think about how signing news get broken online these days and the gamesmanship of it all. I guess my question is: how much of it is bullshit?
With Springer you had a little guy with the scoop and the big names caught totally off-guard, and then seeming to resort to generalities so that they didn't seem so out of the loop. For example:
And then with Brantley you have Hazel tweeting something, folks like Rosenthal confirming it, and then the whole thing going up in smoke, with Olney later saying that the Jays weren't even close.
What's happening here? Are journalists getting so caught up in being part of the scoop that they loosen their verification standards? Are they all leaning on the same source? Are they passing off assumptions and conjecture as sources? Are they wholesale making stuff up? A mix of everything? — Christopher
As with the question above, I got into this a little bit in my piece on what we’ve learned from the Springer signing, so I don’t want to get back into it too deeply. But it’s a great question, and I’ll say a couple things here.
First, I made a small edit to your question because you mentioned Jeff Passan as having confirmed the Brantley deal, which I don’t believe was the case. He’s been one of the best ones throughout some of the recent debacles and generally seems to refrain from the mushier kind of tweets we’ve seen elsewhere.
Second, I can’t really say what’s going on here, but it sure looks a whole lot like all of what you’re getting at, doesn’t it?
Now, I don’t think transaction-breakers have easy jobs. There are people using them for leverage, there is disinformation, there is an aspect of reading tea leaves, I’m sure. It’s can’t always be easy to know when you have something nailed down or not, and usually they’re pretty locked in. But sometimes, it seems, they’ll looking at what their competitors are saying, too.
I think we saw a little bit too much of how the sausage got made on Tuesday night, but I certainly don’t think there’s fabrication going on. Nor do I think that was the case with the Brantley stuff on Wednesday, either. Maybe there was a failed medical or a trade fell through but somebody had already jumped the gun by leaking it. Maybe once word started to spread it gave the Astros a chance to make one last big offer to keep Brantley around. Whatever the case, I have no doubt that at some point someone credible said something that was worth reporting.
Would you put the statue of Edward S Rogers III beside his dad’s or...? — Chill
That I didn’t recoil in horror at the thought should tell you a lot about just how much I wonder about what Edward Rogers’ role with the current Blue Jays front office might really be. Let’s maybe check back in on this idea in about six years, eh?
Firstly, great, enlightening posts thus far sir! Secondly, my useless pessimism is abating! Lastly, turning to coaching — I think Montoyo and team did as good a job as could have been expected last season. I personally think that the coaching staff as a whole can contribute to on-field success but a manager alone really doesn't usually have a huge impact. I’m interested in your take — i.e. would having Francona here when his contract expires make a couple wins difference to get us over the hump? — Christ on a Bike
I don’t think we can know how much a manager contributes to a team’s win total at the best of times, and as decisions appear to get taken more and more out of their hands, it gets even tougher. The role of a big league manager just isn’t what it used to be, and isn’t what a whole lot of people still think.
Yankees GM Brian Cashman lifted the veil on what modern front offices expect out of a field manager at the GM Meetings in 2017.
If that’s what a manager is supposed to be in 2021, I can only imagine that the Blue Jays are very happy with Charlie Montoyo. And that’s entirely fine by me.
Trevor Bauer has publicly talked about every team he’s been connected to at length except for the Jays. He recently released a video describing what he’s looking for and basically straight up describes the Jays. He was also spotted at an Arizona Coyotes game wearing a Jays hat, but hid the logo. Could he be headed North (or to Dunedin)? — Corey H
I hope not!
Singing Bauer would solidify the Jays as serious contenders, no? (To be clear, I’m conflicted with the thought. It might be wise to give that boat a wide berth. But can’t help but think of the possibilities...) — Marc E
So would signing, say, Taijuan Walker and Didi Gregorius. Or Masahiro Tanaka and Marcus Semien. Or trading for Kris Bryant and Kyle Hendricks.
There are a lot of possibilities still out there. And, as I said in response to the Realmuto question above, I have a hard time seeing the Jays handing out multiple nine-figure contracts in a single off-season. In this case, I continue to hope that they don’t.
Selfish mailbag question: Any news on a podcast!? In your first post you mentioned that you might need to go solo. Could you potentially discuss some of the logistical hurdles you need to jump over to make this happen? Anything us fans can do to support this effort? — RyanF
I appreciate the desire for more podcasts, man. Thanks! There really aren’t any logistical hurdles at the moment, the hold-up is mostly that I’ve got a couple opportunities I’m discussing. And also that I don’t want to start it without a clear idea of how exactly I’m going to do it, if I’m going to bring in a co-host, who that co-host will be, etc. A podcast is definitely going to happen though, that you can be sure of.
Assuming we get a #2 or 3 starting pitcher, who do you line up in the 4 and 5 slot and how would you think the ideal usage (piggybacking) for these guys be? We are going to have to be so careful managing innings this year, what could be an optimal solution for the club? — Phil P
It’s going to be very interesting to see how the Jays deal with this. I’m not sure that a straight-up six-man rotation is where they’ll go with it, but there are going to be a lot of innings available for guys beyond their main five. Hyun Jin Ryu is well served by additional rest, and Nate Pearson has still never even approached a full season workload, so they’ll get a lot of use out of guys who can give them multiple innings in a relief role. Fortunately, they have several who fit the bill, such as Ross Stripling, Robbie Ray (if he gets bumped from a rotation spot), Trent Thornton (if he’s healthy), and Shun Yamaguchi (if they dare).
There are also a number of potential multi-inning relievers on the roster who are more likely slated for the rotation in Buffalo, but can be options in a longer role in the majors as well: Anthony Kay, Thomas Hatch, Jacob Waguespack, T.J. Zeuch, possibly Patrick Murphy (who may already be a reliever at this stage), and Julian Merryweather, who we learned this week — or at least I learned — has had a fourth option year imposed on him because of his injury history, allowing the Jays to send him to Buffalo.
Though I think there’s little chance Tanner Roark is as bad in 2021 as he was in 2020, I think that in an ideal world the Jays find a way to rid themselves of him, then add two starters behind Ryu and Pearson, leaving Ray or Stripling as the fifth. More likely it will be Roark in the fifth spot, regardless of whether they add one or two starters. I would guess that piggybacking is possible, particularly with Pearson (especially if Ray is in the bullpen), but also that they’ll make more frequent use of spot starts.
The big thing is that it seems the Jays will have enough arms to ease their starters’ workloads while still having room for their one-inning specialists at the back of the bullpen. How it all shakes out, though, I couldn’t possibly say. It will likely all depend on who they add before the winter is through, who comes to camp healthy, and how spring training goes.
Do you think Cathal Kelly's head exploded when the Jays signed George Springer? :-) — Marshall Auerback
Well, he survived the Ryu signing, so I can’t imagine this is much different.
With the additions of Chatwood and Yates, how are you feeling about the Jays bullpen? Seems like the group is mostly filled out. — Endangered LOOGY
I think Yates is an absolutely incredible addition, and were the news of his signing not buried by the Springer deal that came so soon after it, we’d have heard a whole lot more about it. Chatwood is a very interesting guy for them to have taken a flier on, and I think there’s a real chance that deal works out for them.
As for the bullpen being mostly filled out, I’d definitely like to see them add one big name, but I think it’s going to be tricky.
Right now, if at full health (and assuming that the rule limiting teams to a maximum 13 pitchers, which was announced in early 2020 but revised after the pandemic, is in place for 2021), the Jays’ relief corps would appear to be Chatwood, Yates, Rafael Dolis, Jordan Romano, Ryan Borucki, Shun Yamaguchi, Ross Stripling, and either Robbie Ray or Trent Thornton (depending on whether Ray gets a rotation spot or not). A.J. Cole and Patrick Murphy would then be on the outside looking in.
Thornton still has options left, so one way to thin out that group would be to send him down. Yamaguchi, on the other hand, can’t be sent to the minors without his consent.
I probably am more willing to give Yamaguchi another chance than most — I thought he showed flashes of what made him one of the best pitchers in Japan at times last season, and with another year under his belt I believe he can improve — but even I’m left looking at that $3,175,000 salary of his and wondering if it might be worth it for the Jays just to eat it in order to bring in someone who can be more of a back-end force. But, of course, you have to factor that money into any deal for a reliever you might bring in to replace him, and that’s possibly untenable.
Frankly, though, I think the Jays should do it anyway. Not necessarily releasing Yamaguchi just yet, but going out and getting someone like Brad Hand. They you just let spring training play out. If they get to the end of March with all these guys healthy, then they’ll have some tough decisions to make. They should be so lucky.
Has there been much talk about showing proof of vaccination to enter MLB parks? I hope so, then maybe it'll be empty enough to sneak down to the 100s like the good old Star Pass days! — Diego Bergia
Lots of social distancing back in those days! As for this year, I honestly couldn’t tell you where the league is at on all this stuff, but I would think it’s more likely that the Jays don’t play in Toronto at all this season than it is that we actually start seeing fans in the dome by the end of the year. Would love to be wrong about that though!
Whassup Andrew! Assuming we get no bites on Grichuk, we'd presumably be looking at moving Teoscar or Lourdes in the event that we do land Brantley. Instead of pursuing the oft-injured and aging Brantley, why not keep our younger cost-controlled OFs and deal from a position of prospect depth (i.e. catching) for a SP like Gray or Hendricks? — Matt Michels
Matt! Good to hear from you man. Perhaps the Jays saw this suggestion and then decided to back out of the Brantley deal! I do think that the Jays are best off using money — which nobody else seems to be willing to spend right now — to improve their roster, rather than their prospects. But catching is definitely an area of strength for them, and with five catchers on their 40-man roster you have to think that they almost have to move one of them at some point. I’m not sure how valuable other teams are going to find the Jays’ catchers — it’s a tough position to develop, and there’s a lot of attrition there, so good catching prospects may not be valued in the same way as prospects at other positions, especially if they’re far away from the big leagues — but if you can use a Gabriel Moreno or Alejandro Kirk as a starting point in a deal for someone like Kyle Hendricks or Sonny Gray, I do like that a whole lot better than the idea of having to move Lourdes Gurriel.
Heard your hit on TSN radio earlier (this week), good stuff! Wondering if the old “a run scored is as good as a run prevented” adage still holds true? I ask in context of potential SP signings/trades. Are two decent/risky pitchers (thinking Walker and Paxton types) enough, or do we really benefit a lot more from trading prospects / position players for a 2/3 SP?
PS - I still can’t believe, as a Jays fan, that I’m even in a position to ask this! — Alex Stanford
I would be all for the Jays adding Walker and Paxton and then trying to outscore their opponents every night. (Of course, at the time this question was asked it looked like the Jays had also signed Michael Brantley, so their offence isn’t quite as potent as it looked like it might have been.)
I am curious to know more about the Blue Jays TV rights. We often hear about other teams signing these lucrative TV deals - some worth billions of dollars. However, we never hear how much money the Blue Jays make from their TV deal. I understand that Rogers is essentially robbing Peter to pay Paul, but I am quite interested in knowing what kind of money is at play. We saw that during the 2015-16 playoff runs, millions of Canadians tune in. This has to be worth a pretty penny!
Side note: I couldn't be more excited to read you work again. Hands down, my favourite baseball writer! — Steve D.
Thanks so much for the kind words, man. I just wish I had a better answer to your question on this. MLB has a Revenue Sharing Definitions Committee that uses a formula to determine what the fair market value of a team’s TV rights are, and the official line is that the Jays and Rogers adhere to it.
And while the TV numbers the Jays are capable of pulling in are definitely eye-popping, the Jays will remind you that those Canadian eyeballs aren’t worth as much in advertising dollars as American ones tend to be. Turn on a TV in the United States and you can immediately see some big differences: tons of ads for pharmaceuticals, and tons of political ad money pouring in as well.
Mark Shapiro basically said as much in the spring of 2019, which I wrote about at the time for my former employer (in a piece about the Padres’ decision to bring Fernando Tatís Jr. up on opening day). This passage, I think, is particularly interesting given the way that this off-season has unfolded.
Both the Jays and the Padres are also franchises that, maybe more than most, need to get customers through the gates to really drive revenue. The Padres have a tough TV market, being penned as they are between Los Angeles on one side and Mexico on the other. And while the Jays’ TV market is vast, and details of their arrangement with Rogers are murky, Mark Shapiro recently spoke with reporters about it, and hardly made it sound like a cash cow.
“I think what’s missed often is that the Canadian market is just different. It’s obviously very different, much more highly regulated,” he explained. “I think if there was some disconnect that was at a large scale or level, that the (Revenue Sharing Definitions Committee) would have already audited and said that’s an issue.”
In other words, the Jays have a pretty high incentive to put a good team on the field in order to maximize their revenues through gate receipts — as the Padres do — unlike other teams who make much of their money through revenue sharing and strong TV deals.
This is also why the Jays have been pushing so hard to find a way to build a new ballpark on the south end of the Rogers Centre that would allow them to populate the rest of the site with condos, office towers, and retail. That should be game-changing for them, if they ever manage to make it happen. The TV stuff is what it is.
With all due respect (and I'm a big Stoeten fan) you're push back on the cheating aspect is a bit all over the place. I have zero time for Bauer and his hateful bullshit, I don't care how good at baseball he is, and firmly believe some cheating in social programs doesn't diminish the value in social programs. I also don't really see what the latter has to do with someone who cheats at baseball. I have reservations about a cheater playing on my favourite team, I'm not suggesting we cancel baseball. Also, I'm not being selective when I say that Springer had the second most trashcan bangs, the data is there - he cheated.
To his credit, Springer did handle the fallout and hard questions better than other Astros. That and his fan/community service should count for something too, as you have pointed out.
All that said, the Man in White better be a myth because my personal Pantheon would collapse with Bautista.
Awesome stuff. Thanks Andrew!