Mail Bag (Part Two): Beating the Deadline

On Vladdy, Varsho, Barger, Bo, Clancy, prospects, playoff starters, deadline needs, the cost of making deals, and a whole lot more!

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OK, time to finally finish off the mail bag I put a call out for probably two weeks ago. My apologies, a) for taking this long to get to the remaining questions, b) for the brevity of some of my replies, and c) to anyone whose question I may have missed. Things have become just too busy around here, with the trade deadline coming up, to give them the time I normally would. And since the majority of the questions are deadline-related, there’s no sense in saving them until after Thursday.

So… here we go! Part one is here. As always, I have not read any of Griff’s answers.

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Who do you expect to be the best non-deadline acquisition we get to finish off the season? Our two strongest defenders coming back (Varsho or Giminez), an out-of-nowhere back-of-the-bullpen arm (please), Manoah, Francis finding his August/September 2024 form, Santander doing something not horribly on the field, or yet another rookie proving out of nowhere he’s actually a guy? — Graham

Great question, Graham. Thanks for it and for the support! There are a lot of ways we could go here. Someone like Kendry Rojas, who we’ll talk about later, coming up and helping the bullpen is certainly on the radar (even despite a rough Triple-A debut here on Wednesday). I think Santander will look much more like the guy we expected if and when he comes back. But the answer for me has to be Varsho.

I know he’s not been the hitter anybody hoped for when the Jays first acquired him, but I really like the way he started leaning into his power way back in the spring, and even though we’ve not really seen enough from him to fully believe in it—he has just 100 big league plate appearances this season, and just a 103 wRC+ despite eight homers—I’ve really liked what I’ve seen. And I expect his .196 BABIP to improve, and his 31% strikeout rate to trend down a bit, too. The ingredients are there, the power is legit, and this team can certainly still use that.

And, though no one is really talking about it, they could really use his glove back, too.

Now, Nathan Lukes is not the main culprit in this ugly trend. But using him too much in CF, having to find a place for Addison Barger’s poor glove because his bat has been so hot, and being without both Varsho and Giménez are all things that will drag these numbers down. A Varsho-Kiermaier-Springer outfield it ain’t. Getting one of the best outfield defenders on the planet back is going to help a ton.

And while we’re talking about Varsho, I saw other people tweeting about this Blair and Barker segment too, and… what on earth are we doing here?

Varsho has one year left on his contract after this one, will probably make something like $12 million, and has around $2.75 million left on his salary for this year. What non-contending team is deciding that’s the guy they need to get back?? When there are like nine guys with cheap control for five or six years right there on the roster with him? Wild.

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Is there a less aesthetically appealing expression of hitter frustration than slamming the bat on home plate when the alternatives including snapping it like a small branch over one knee and/or slowly removing each batting glove while staring into the far distance?

This question has nothing to do with Vlad. — Conrad B.

Thanks so much for the support, Conrad! And I am sure that your question has nothing to do with Vlad, because he entered play on Wednesday slashing .400/.492/.660 so far in the second half. When was the last time he looked frustrated at the dish? I can hardly remember.

I do agree that your alternatives to slamming the bat onto the plate in frustration are much more pleasing to watch though.

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Is Barger a better Right Fielder or Third Baseman? What is his future position? — Jay M.

Thanks so much for the question and the support, Jay. Or, should I say, the questions. Because I think Barger’s future position has to be at primarily third base, at least next season. Only one of George Springer and Anthony Santander can DH, and I don’t imagine the Jays will want to have one of those guys and Barger in the outfield at the same time very often.

As for which he’s better at, that’s harder to say. Last year he was significantly worse at third (-4 FRV) than in right (1 FRV), but this year his range in the outfield has graded out much worse (-4 OAA) and he’s only managed to get back to average (0 FRV) because of his arm. At third he’s simply been average this season. And, overall, he’s played a lot less outfield as a pro. So maybe that’s reason to think he can grow into that position more. He just doesn’t feel very natural at either, I’d say. But… sure, let’s go with third.

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Hey Andrew. Finally paid up to make sure you get the $ you deserve… and to ask you this question: It seems pretty clear Bo is keen to test free agency, and who could blame him? But given the fact the Jays finally seem competitive, and he seems happy, and the team has a lot of money coming off the books soon… what odds would you give to Bo’s next contract being with Toronto? — Neil

Hey Neil, thanks so much for the support and for the question! I think there’s definitely some kind of a chance that Bo returns, for all the reasons you suggest. But I honestly would have a really tough time putting a number on it beyond “not zero.”

He even spoke about this recently, as passed along by MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson:

“My priorities have always been to win, to be part of an organization that has that same goal in mind and I want to play in an exciting environment. We’re checking all those boxes,” Bichette said. “It’s a special time right now and the fans are definitely making their case known.”

This, it must be noted, is a lot more meaningful than Bob Nightengale tossing off some sloppy English in passing a year ago about Bo having “no plans to stay,” which so many people decided to rigidly interpret as “he’s gone” and not “he has no contract keeping him here”—a thing that happen mostly, I suspect, because they get their content from ragebait SEO farms.¹

So, yeah! Definitely possible. But whether there’s some team out there that just really values him way beyond the way the Jays do is the big question. I imagine there will be teams that don’t see him as a shortstop, don’t like the volatility, don’t like how the skillset might age, or how it’s already aging, with his sprint speed currently sitting in just the 23rd percentile after being in the 75th back in 2021. But some will certainly see a lot of value in a 28-year-old free agent who can hold his own at short and consistently give you a 120-ish wRC+ and 20-ish home runs.

Where the Jays land on that spectrum will have at least as much to do with whether he returns or not as what he thinks about the situation, and we just really don’t know where they are on that. But I think if the market is soft, if the qualifying offer affects him or it starts looking like his best move is a one-year “prove it” deal, or something with early opt-outs, then maybe there’s more of a path here.

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Bo go or Bo no go — steve-o

No go.²

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How would you kindly explain to a beloved family member who thinks the Jays should trade Bo now before he “leaves for nothing” that they are, politely, a fucking idiot? — Conrad B.

I would simply change the subject by asking them their thoughts on Mitch Marner, because clearly they have some.

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Nick asked a similar question in your podcast last week, but a slight tweak: If the Jays started a 3-game wild card round tomorrow, who would you have as the starters, and who would go to the bullpen? I find it crazy how difficult it is to really separate the the confidence levels between these five pitchers. (FWIW I'd probably go Bassitt, Berrios, Gausman, as I think Lauer and Scherzer could be better suited to bullpen/longman) — Kyle R.

Thanks so much for the question and the support, Kyle. I think I’m with you on the trio, though I’d probably have Gausman take the ball in game one. Lauer, especially because he’s the only lefty, is the best fit as a bulk guy to come in if something goes wrong in a start. Scherzer feels like the easiest to slide into a one-inning role among the group, too. But I’m not at all ruling out the possibility of him pitching his way into the conversation for getting a start. They’ll simply have to make it to a series that will require four starters, I suppose.

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Have seen fans pining for Suárez or Kwan, but given the fit and likely acquisition cost, Taylor Ward seems like a better target to me. I don’t think the Jays need to add a position player, but if they do what are your thoughts on Ward? — Mike W.

Thanks so much for the question and the support, Mike! Apparently the Angels are in buy-mode for some reason, so I’d be surprised if Ward was on the move. I do like him well enough though, but I certainly don’t put him in the category of a Suárez—either as a player or as a fit for the Jays. I do think that they’d be better off adding a right-handed bat than a lefty, so Ward checks that box. (Kwan, as another lefty bat who needs a platoon partner just feels too similar to a bunch of other guys they have, for my taste). But Ward’s a pretty average as a fielder, and he’s a bit Santander-ish with the whole power-and-little-else profile. Honestly, I’d probably rather a rental here than locking him into the mix for next season.

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Hi Andrew! Jambo from Zanzibar! As always, thank you so much for the incredible work you do covering ours Jays. Very happy to be a paid subscriber, and will continue to be for as long as you do this!

I booked this trip to Tanzania thinking Blue Jays baseball wouldn’t be worth hanging around town for this summer, but here we are, and our boys are in first place in the AL East, and not far behind some of the best records in baseball.

I do believe, as I’m sure many (including Ross) do, that the Jays need some reinforcements if they are to keep hold of their division lead, and hopefully secure a top-2 record in the AL to advance to the ALDS.

I am of the mind that the Jays should target 3 impact players (easier said than done, I know)—a power bat, a starter who could start a playoff game, and a high leverage reliever—in order to really feel like they can compete against the big boys in October.

Do you think the Jays have enough pieces to trade for those stars without sacrificing Nimmala and Yesavage? — Andre

Thanks so much for the question and the support, Jamb— er… Andre! I think it really comes down to the level of player you’re talking about. And, maybe even more than that, the years of control remaining. We’ve seen that the Jays have managed to add a pretty impressive reliever in Seranthony Domíguez for far less than their top-tier prospects. There are other guys out there that probably would. Getting Jhoan Duran for this year and two additional ones? That might require one of those guys.

(UPDATE: Just as I was about to post this Duran was officially dealt to the Phillies, who gave up catching prospect Eduardo Tait. Tate ranks 50th on Baseball America’s just-released top 100 update; eight spots behind Nimmala and 12 ahead of Yesavage. So, yeah, that’s in the ballpark.)

Getting a Joe Ryan or Edward Cabrera? Same. But I think the Jays will still be able to add some very good reinforcements without blowing apart the top of their system. I’m not sure an everyday power bat and a playoff-calibre starter, in addition to even more relief help, are in the cards. But those are certainly good goals, too.

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Do you believe Severino's home/road splits are a real thing (and so it's worth trading for him, for this season and to plug holes in the 26 and 27 rotation)? And if we think we're getting Road Severino, who on the farm or the 26-man should the Jays be willing to give up for him? — Patrick C.

Thanks so much for the question and the support, Patrick! Honestly, I’m not very moved by the idea of Severino. I know he’s been vocal about the situation in Sacramento, and that could be an explanation for the ugly numbers he’s put up at home. But once you start looking under the hood, I tend to not think it’s that.

He’s not striking out guys at all, with a K% of just 17.1% that’s in the bottom 10 of qualified starters, but on the road the problem is more pronounced. Away from home he's striking out just 15.2% of batters (5.61 K/9), and he has a 4.05 FIP and a 4.77 xFIP—quite different from his 3.03 ERA in the split. He also has just a .229 BABIP on the road, compared to .349 at home. The home numbers definitely do seem a bit inflated, but I think the road ones are an illusion of a different kind. I just don’t see anything special here—certainly not anything worth taking on $42 million over the next two years for.

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Is it possible that Kendry Rojas, not Yesavage or Tiedemann, is the team's best pitching prospect? — Jason G.

Thanks so much for the question and the support, Jason! The Rojas hype train certainly began chugging more loudly in the days since you submitted this question. Here on Wednesday he made his Triple-A debut, and though it didn’t go well…

…that he’s reached the level speaks to the success he’s had this year. It’s an exciting arm, and he absolutely could end up being the top guy to come out of this group. As could Khal Stephen, Johnny King, Gage Stanifer, etc..

But, yes. Definitely an exciting guy—and with him needing to be added to the 40-man this winter anyway, we may see him sooner than later.

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Sorry, need to vent here so not a real question. How can Sportsnet be so dumb to mistakenly post a picture of MIke Flanagan during their tribute to Jim Clancy before the first game against the Giants? Clancy was a franchise stalwart who deserved better. Embarassing and shameful. How hard is it to get that right? I haven't seen an apology - I hope there was one. — OzRob

Woof! Thanks for the support and for this one, Rob. And fair venting.

For those that missed it, the legendary and evidently eagle-eyed Mark Hebscher caught that, back during the Giants series, Sportsnet’s tribute to one of the underrated all-time Blue Jays, Jim Clancy, who passed away that week, mistakenly used a picture of his similarly moustachioed teammate, Mike Flanagan.

I’m with Rob and Hebsy here, in that I don’t really know what to say except that this truly sucks. I’m not typically a “that can’t happen” guy when it comes to mistakes on the baseball field, but in this case? That can’t happen.

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OK, and that’s it for the mail bag! Stay tuned for rumour madness as the deadline approaches!

1. Like, I know that at times Bob may come off like he’s about as sharp as a bag of wet hair, but the number of people who were willing to believe he’d toss off an exclusive national-level scoop like “Bo Bichette unwilling to re-sign in Toronto under any circumstance” in a notes section under a piece about Jackson and Ethan Holliday, and then just immediately move on without comment, was truly mind-boggling. (Nightengale piece here.)

2. Sure. What the hell.