Mail bag: The mid-autumn of our discontent!
On Ohtani, payroll, the CBT, Gurriel, lefty CFs, team culture, offseason plans, trade partners, prospect waves, Berríos, Kikuchi, Tiedemann, coaching, Biggio, FA relievers, 2022, and much, much more!
A pivotal offseason for the Blue Jays is nearly upon us and, hoo boy, do folks ever have some questions. Hopefully, in this first mail bag since the ugly conclusion of the team’s 2022 season, I have some adequate answers.
Because that’s what we’re here to do in this one. And with the responses below so overflowing with words that this email is probably going to get cut off for many of you, forcing you to click your way over to Substack, I suppose I don’t need to spend any more time describing what’s below than that.
So thank you so much to everybody who submitted a questions, my apologies for not being able to get to them all, and, most importantly, thank you once again to all of those who subscribe. It’s mail bag time!
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Hypothetically speaking, if the Jays wanted to go after Ohtani because they felt they could sign him long-term, what do we think the Angels would want for him? And would signing Ohtani mean substantial salary gutting elsewhere? — Noah
Thanks for the questions and the support, Noah! We’ll start with the second one first. I’ve written a bit about the Jays’ financials already this offseason, and if we take seriously Mark Shapiro’s comments a year ago about going over the luxury tax threshold being something they weren’t likely to do in the near future, it certainly makes it look like things are going to be pretty tight.
Ohtani makes $30 million this year. With their current commitments, plus arbitration projections, minus non-tenders, in the piece linked above I estimated that right now they’re looking at something like $177 million in opening day payroll for 2023 with no changes to the roster. The luxury tax is calculated slightly differently, as it uses average annual value of long-term deals, not players’ year-by-year salaries, but that’s still a fairly reasonable starting point.
Unfortunately, that doesn't simply mean that the Jays have $55 million in room before they hit the 2023 luxury tax threshold of $233 million. According to Roster Resource, four other line items go into the calculation (estimations in parentheses): salaries for pre-arbitration players ($7.2 million), salaries for 40-man players in the minors ($2.5 million), payment into the new $50 million pre-arb bonus pool ($1.7 million), and "player benefits" ($16.5 million), which includes "health insurance, transportation, meal money, and other non-salary payments for all 40-man roster players."
Roster Resource has done the work of estimating the 2023 luxury tax number the Jays are on track for already, and it's $216 million. That's a little higher than the real number would be at this point, as it includes estimated salaries for all arbitration eligible players, but not by much. In my previous piece I had the Jays non-tendering Raimel Tapia, Bradley Zimmer, and Trent Thornton, which would take them down to $208 million.
In other words, they couldn't add Ohtani's $30 million this year without going over the threshold unless they shed salary elsewhere.
Could they do that? Yes. Could and should Rogers simply open the purse strings? Yes.
Could they go over the threshold for a year, taking the relatively minor first-year penalty (a 20% tax on all dollars spent above $233 million)? I'd certainly like to think so.
Related to this, a discussion that came up on Twitter this week regarding Hyun Jin Ryu's contract, which I keep hearing was indeed insured. That seemingly won't give the Jays any relief when it comes to their luxury tax number, but it does give them additional "real" dollars to play with. Hopefully they'd be willing to consider investing some that money on overage penalties in order to benefit the roster, knowing that it won't be difficult to get back under the threshold in 2024, with Ryu, Matt Chapman, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., and Teoscar Hernández all potentially coming off the books. A willingness to go over for just a year might put some one-year pillow contracts in play, too.
So, if they wanted to add an Ohtani, they could find a way to do it financially. Hell, maybe they could help themselves in that regard by flipping guys like Lourdes or Teoscar for pieces the Angels covet, or convincing the Angels to take them on themselves, with a view to moving them at the deadline.
Long-term, if the Jays were going to acquire Ohtani and sign him to an extension, it wouldn't necessarily require "gutting." But, if we assume that they're not going to regularly be a team that goes over the threshold, that would make it much, much more difficult to get Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette signed long-term. And while maybe they're at the point where they're starting to wonder if their "sustainable championship contender" project would be better served by moving on from one of those guys anyway, given all they've done to build this thing around them, I have a hard time believing they're there yet.
As for what the Angels would want for Ohtani? I dunno, the Dodgers' four best prospects?
Leaving aside the question of whether he'll be with the club next year, what do you make of Lourdes' power outage this past season? We're now hearing that he played through a wrist injury. During the season it seemed as if he'd traded power for contact, but maybe that's wrong. The wrist story is certainly plausible. Is it possible that he might sustain the improved contact he showed in 2022 while seeing a renewal of his earlier power stroke? Cuz' that would be terrific! (Or I guess the real question is: how *likely* do you think that scenario is?) — Player to be Named Later
Thanks for the question and the support, man! But, honestly, I have no idea. I’m as in the dark as anyone else is on this one.
Like, it’s impossible not to want to put two-and-two together when you see a player have a big dip in power and then find out he had a wrist injury. But you could clearly see that Gurriel was doing something different at the plate this year, and we have no idea when this wrist thing even originally came up. The only reported instance of it, according to Rotoworld, was in early September, yet it was June and July when he was at his slap-hitting best. I suppose it’s possible that the change to his approach was a reaction to an injury that he didn’t actually need to take time off for until a few months later, but the safer guess would seem to be that the Blue Jays were being truthful when they said that they didn’t believe his power was affected by it. It was the approach change that diminished his power output.
Of course, that’s also what you’d probably say if you were expecting to dangle a player in trade talks this winter and you didn’t want to give off the impression that he’s damaged goods. And, honestly, while I know you wanted to leave this question aside, I do think that’s maybe the most likely scenario with him anyway — that, whether or not the power comes and the contact stays, is going to be a question for some other team to worry about.
I don’t think Gurriel has a ton of value on the trade market right now, but the time to deal him seems to be now. For one, having both Lourdes and Teoscar makes it harder to use George Springer in right field, his optimal position, and that scenario will be made even more complicated if another everyday outfielder is brought in. For two, the Jays will find Gurriel hard to move at the trade deadline, when non-contenders won’t be looking for rental players. The return might not be great, but if they can shed some salary and get back any kind of useful piece, maybe there’s a team out there willing to take him on in the hopes of rebuilding some value and flipping him at the deadline.
Vladdy for Shohei Ohtani? Who says no? — Marshall
The Blue Jays. Instantly.
One, three years of a potential seven-win player is worth more than one year of a potential ten-win player. (Quibble with those definitions if you like, but per FanGraphs Vlad’s career high is 6.3, Ohtani’s is 9.4).
Two, the entire point of acquiring Ohtani is to have him play alongside of your best players.
Proud to subscribe again Andrew. Great work all year long.
1. Bellinger, Grisham, Nimmo or Benetendi for a LH OF role? Should the Jays be interested in any of them?
2. Marlins, Astros or Cardinals? Best trading partner for a SP.
3. Totally Wired, Sparta FC, or How I Wrote Elastic Man? Best Fall song.
Bob
Thanks so much for the support and the kind words, man. Appreciate you and everyone else that makes this all possible!
• 1. Keeping in mind that I’m not as adamant about the Jays adding a left-handed bat as a lot of people are, here goes:
I’m not buying Benintendi’s bounce back in the highest full-season BABIP year of his career (with a second half dip in production), nor do I have any interest in adding another outfielder who can’t play centre, so he’s out.
Is there another Grisham, or are we talking about the Padres guy who can’t hit? Great fielder, but pass.
Nimmo would be an incredible fit, and a guy you’d make whatever room you need to in order to accommodate him. But a 29-year-old free agent with a 138 wRC+ since the start of 2018 and +9 OOA in centre field over the last two seasons? I’d be shocked if the Jays weren’t priced out of that market.
Bellinger, though? As I mentioned above, maybe some pillow contracts are going to be in play for the Jays this winter, even if it pushes them above the luxury tax threshold on paper. Tieran Alexander of Prospects Live recently produced a really thought-provoking and deep analysis of subtle mechanical changes to Bellinger’s swing that have started since he came back from a fractured left fibula suffered in April 2021. The theory: though medically cleared to play after two months, “the risk of Cody Bellinger swinging with the broken leg wasn’t that his leg gets more broken, it was that pain teaches him bad habits,” and that seems to have been exactly what happened.
Theoretically, those habits should be fixable. And while it’s definitely a red flag that an organization as good as the Dodgers weren’t able to this year, he’s the one I’d target if he actually does become available.
• 2. I have no idea, because it depends on what’s going the other way. Though, as with the outfielder thing, I’m not as adamant about the Jays making a big, bold addition to their rotation, either. It would be nice. I think they definitely need to add depth. But I don’t think it’s crazy to believe their internal options plus one or two more decent arms could get them to the trade deadline, at which point they’ll be better able to assess what they really need to do.
• 3. It might be Kicker Conspiracy for me! But among your three it’s definitely Totally Wired.
Hi Andrew, I sent a tweet about this tagging you a few weeks back, but I remain interested in the "culture" aspect of the Jays' management plan.
Most trade ideas floated around, serious or not, involving a big piece for the team involve Lourdes or Teoscar going out, and there's discussion of Cavan Biggio being non-tendered etc. But are we certain that management doesn't essentially view the group (including Bichette, Jansen, Vladdy and others) kind of through a "family" lens?
I don't know anything obviously, but I kind of get the feeling from pieces published over the season that they would be much more reluctant than the average team to blow up the "emotional core" of the team here, and it feels like an underexplored angle in thinking about how they'll shape the roster going forward. — Danny
Thanks for the support, and for your question, Danny! And I’m sorry that I missed this on Twitter, because I’m definitely interested in this stuff as well.
First of all, let’s go with “not serious” on the idea that Lourdes would be a significant part of a trade for any kind of “big piece” — as in, anyone saying this is not to be taken seriously. It’s more plausible with Teoscar, though the return would be limited because he’s only a year from free agency, and the market will be limited because there likely aren’t many teams looking for win-now players that are looking to give win-now players back. I see Gurriel as potentially more of a Rowdy Tellez-like piece — which is a name that relates back to your question quite well — though obviously with a different contract situation.
Tellez was moved to Milwaukee in mid-2021 for Trevor Richards and Bowden Francis in an exchange of guys who were on their way toward being out of options and who fit the other team’s roster better (plus a fringe prospect). I’m not sure you’d count him as an “emotional core” piece, but if you do, that stuff certainly took a back seat to roster construction there.
Another instance where it almost did is with Teoscar, who the Miami Herald said back in March had been the subject of “serious discussions” between the Jays and Marlins prior to the lockout. Reportedly, it was a deal that would have sent third baseman Brian Anderson and a starting pitcher to Toronto. Maybe the “family” aspect of the Jays’ team-building project factored into the decision to ultimately fill those needs with Matt Chapman and (ugh) Yusei Kikuchi instead, but this report (though it’s paywalled now) certainly read to me when I first saw it as being of the more concrete variety and not run-of-the-mill rumour-mongering for clicks. They were serious.
If true, and I don’t doubt it, I don’t think anything here is off the table, regardless of how much they really do seem to like their guys, and like talking about culture stuff. I’d maybe say that Biggio, and whether they tender him a contract or not, could be the canary in the coal mine on this, but, like, they fired Charlie, right? Clearly it all only matters to a point.
Thank you for another season, sir. Your current incarnation is my #1 spot for Jays coverage and I hope you are enjoying it as much as your readers are.
My question is about the magnitude of the Jays off-season moves. Do you think it will be more along the lines of tweaks like Atkins implied, or was that just his standard elusive positioning? If it turns out to be tweaks, what do you think the biggest tweak could be? Fifth starter? Upgrade on a non-core regular position player? — giant badger
Hey, thanks so much man! I’m definitely enjoying doing my own thing much more than I ever did having bosses, even if the pay is not quite yet what it used to be. Thanks for your support, and the question!
Also, I suppose this is a good time to remind those reading for free once again that I’d love it if they’d consider becoming paid subscribers — it’s the only way I make my living, keeps the site free for everyone else, and is the only way you can submit questions for any future mail bags.
As for your question, giant badger, I’m really just trying to read the tea leaves like everyone else on this stuff, but I do kinda think that the Jays locked themselves into a lot of their 2023 roster over the past year. We’ve already discussed the financial side of things. And on the roster side there are a lot of long-term contracts, a lot of guys who it would be hard to move in deals that make the 2023 Blue Jays better, and not exactly an overwhelming surplus of prospects.
Plus, the position they do have a surplus in is one where deals can be tricky. Most win-now teams already have a catcher, and many of the other teams already have big-league-ready backstops, or guys that are close. It’s not like trading a pitcher or an outfielder, which teams need many of, or shortstops, who can be comfortably moved elsewhere on the diamond. As much as we, and the Jays, all like their catchers, if the market for them is soft the front office may not feel like they can get enough value back to justify a trade.
That said, I’m sure there are many ways to be bold here — Atkins could absolutely have been leaving all doors open with the comments you’re referring to, and I know a lot of people are hoping that’s the case. Rogers greenlighting a bunch of spending would certainly help in that regard. Putting someone like Bo Bichette in play would be another way to do it but, again, it’s tough to get better by dealing away a 4.5 WAR shortstop with a 129 wRC+.
So, yeah. I wouldn’t be surprised if it was a quieter offseason than a lot of fans would like. But I wouldn’t be shocked if it wasn’t. Is that a mealy-mouthed enough way to put it?
As for what a tweak-oriented offseason might look like, I think it would just mean smaller scale moves to fix the problems fans want big, splashy solutions to — starting pitching depth, the bullpen, left-handed hitting, maybe centre field. Or a bigger solution to one of those problems, and smaller solutions to the others.
Can they get to where they need to be in all those areas with internal candidates, spending a little money on the free agent market, and dealing away non-tender candidates and guys who are sliding off the 40-man? Maybe? Then again, I’m not sure doing that’s any easier than some of the other tricky paths they could take — especially once you remember that it’s not like the other teams in their division aren’t going to be trying to get better in their own right.
It’s going to be a fascinating winter either way.
Hey, I’m thinking with the areas of need and lack of major league quality depth, that the Jays should do a McGriff/Tony for Alomar/Carter kind of deal. I know that’s easier said than done, but given where this team is would this be the next logical step? I see a great fit with the Cardinals for a catcher/Hernandez deal for some combination of players, including a young OF and some pitching. Also, what if Bo is included and you add an Edman and a Gorman (then move Espi to short)?
Honestly this is how I live my life in a dynasty league (always looking for blockbusters), but it just feels like to me that this off-season seems primed for a baseball deal. — Landon
Great question, Landon. Thanks so much for it and for the support!
I definitely think you’re right that we’re closer to the conditions where a massive deal like that could make sense than we’ve been in a long time in this market.
One of the main reasons that the Carter/Alomar trade worked so well for the Blue Jays was that they had John Olerud waiting in the wings to take McGriff’s spot at first base, and some similar ingredients are definitely there right now, given the Jays’ surplus of big league catchers — and, in this case, the Cardinals’ needs.
But how do we get there from here?
For one thing, the Cardinals traded outfielder Harrison Bader to the Yankees at the trade deadline for starter Jordan Montgomery, losing some of the outfield depth that might have made sense for the Jays, while simultaneously signaling that they probably don’t have a ton of young, big league starters to deal away. Dylan Carlson, a switch-hitting centre fielder, would be a great fit for the Jays, but who plays centre for St. Louis in that scenario? Lars Nootbaar had a nice year and could also fit the Jays, but his 12 games in centre this year were the most that he’s played in any year of his pro career. Edman had a great year with the glove and a nice one at the plate — his 5.6 fWAR topped Bo 4.5 mark, in fact — but that would be a huge gamble if we’re talking about including Bichette in a trade. Gorman was -11 OAA at second base this year and has a ton of swing-and-miss to go along with his pop, so he’s more a utility or a corner piece for me. Brendan Donovan is an interesting lefty bat despite the lack of power, because his walk and strikeout rates are so impressive, but he doesn’t really have a full-time position either (though he’s passable at a few).
On the pitching side, uh, thanks but no thanks to Matthew Liberatore coming off a 5.97 ERA in the big leagues and a 5.17 ERA in Triple-A. Jordan Hicks doesn’t throw as hard as he used to. keeps walking guys, and is only a reliever. The return of Adam Wainwright might put some of the Cardinals’ depth into play in the right deal, though they’re going to need to have someone who can cover if Steven Matz is a mess again. Speaking of messes, Jack Flaherty is an intriguing name, but hasn’t been good or healthy over the last three seasons and is one year from free agency. Andre Pallante is a swingman type that the Jays could have some interest in, but he’s not a swing-and-miss guy, relying instead on ground balls — potentially dangerous with the banning of the shift on its way in.
Turning to what the Cardinals need, we know that, with the retirement of Yadi Molina, they must find a catcher. They could use an everyday middle infielder, but I’m not sure the Jays have one of those outside of Bichette themselves. Teoscar would be a great addition to any lineup for a year, but I’m not sure he’s an ideal fit for a Cardinals team that already has right-handed power in the form of Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado (assuming he returns), and Tyler O’Neill — especially if the idea is to take a lefty outfielder from them. With Flaherty and Matz in tow, they’d probably want more pitching depth, rather than less.
It’s tough!
Making it even tougher here is the fact that St. Louis has an interesting catching prospect in Iván Herrera, who might make them less inclined to look for a catcher with a lot of club control still left. Would they trade a year of whatever Flaherty is now for a couple years of Danny Jansen? If the Jays traded Kirk for Donovan, where would he play? If you go after Nootbar, now you have to move an outfielder like Gurriel, and what’s the return on that going to be?
Also complicating things on the catching front is the fact that trading with the Jays isn’t the only option for a win-now team looking for one. The free agent market isn’t great, but Wilson Contreras and Christian Vázquez are out there. Oakland’s Sean Murphy will likely be available in trade as well — and the A’s won’t have to be nearly as narrow in their demands for players in return as the Jays will, both in terms of position and big-league readiness.
There are pieces on either team’s roster that the other will covet, but making them actually fit is quite difficult, and ultimately kinda futile from where we sit — which is why I don’t often delve into trade proposal stuff. Even if you have a good sense of what the team you follow has and how they think, it often takes a research project understand how the other side. In this case I’m not sure the fit is as clear as it feels.
That said, since we’re here talking trade proposals anyway, I must say that I do like one that Nick mentioned to me on a recent podcast episode, and that I’ve seen out there on Twitter as well. So what the hell…
Pittsburgh’s Bryan Reynolds is a switch-hitting centre fielder with three years of club control left. He had a down year in 2022, both at the plate and in the field, but was still good, and was a six-win player in 2021. At that time Pittsburgh seemed to think he was far enough away from free agency to still be able to play a part on the next good Pirates team, but that fantasy ought to be quickly fading. Add in reliever David Bednar and his four remaining years of control, send Gabriel Moreno and his six the other way, add in whatever pieces you need to even the deal out — maybe Gurriel, as salary ballast/to free a Jays OF spot, and as a guy the Pirates can market/try to flip for prospects at the deadline, or maybe some formerly interesting pitching that the Pirates can give some run and try to fix (Thomas Hatch, Anthony Kay, Trent Thornton) — and call it a day.
Honestly, even just Reynolds for Moreno straight-up — which I think was the extent of Nick’s suggestion in the first place — would be fine. Provided, I assume, that you don’t actually ask a Pirates fan about it.
I enjoyed listening to the 'positive' and 'negative' podcasts although the negative one was scary. Actually I enjoy all the podcasts! I've got two questions.
1. The Front Office has talked about creating a sustained winning team with 'wave after wave' of talent coming through. Do you see the next wave of talent - and how big is that wave? A Moreno and Tiedemann? Or more than that?
2. If we we are not pursuing big free agents and don't get Stripling back, are we really going to rely on bounce backs from Berrios and Kikuchi? Is that, uh, wise and sustainable (keeping to that theme) or do we have no other choice given their contracts? — OzRob
Thanks so much for listening, Rob. And for the questions and the support!
• 1. I mean, it’s not exactly a tsunami at this point, but you could certainly do a lot worse than having Moreno in the majors and Tiedemann nearing the cusp — especially with Alek Manoah having arrived a year earlier than most would have expected. Orelvis Martinez is still very much a thing too, even though he struggled this year in a challenging assignment at Double-A (where he was the only qualified age-20 hitter in the league). There are other interesting names who are bubbling up through the ranks who may not necessarily have multiple All-Star game potential, but who will certainly help fill in gaps as more expensive veterans come off the books.
Maybe that doesn’t quite feel like a wave, but there are some extenuating circumstances behind that. The Jays have obviously traded away guys who would have been, or were at one point considered, a part of this wave: Austin Martin, Simeon Woods-Richardson, Jordan Groshans, Gunnar Hoglund, etc. And part of the reason they felt the need to make moves like that has been the failure of so many of guys expected to be part of the previous wave, or the leading edge of this one: Nate Pearson, Julian Merryweather, Thomas Hatch, Anthony Kay, Trent Thornton, Brandon Drury, Billy McKinney, etc.
Not to make excuses, but if they’d got more out of the earlier group, more of the later group would still be here, and the wave situation would feel a lot better. Plus, not to make excuses a second time, my sense is that the Jays feel that, in time, the move to their new player development complex will accelerate the waves.
I guess we’ll see how it goes. But I certainly can’t fault anyone for looking around and wondering why the water is so still.
2. Kikuchi is a different animal, because his contract is shorter and front-loaded, but Berríos is going to be making starts for this club for a long, long time. There’s just no way around it. So, whether it’s wise or not is essentially moot.
The real question with him now, beyond “how the hell do we get him back to his best?”, is how many resources do they allocate to Berríos-proofing their rotation. Adding another good starter would be ideal regardless, of course — open up your wallet for Verlander, Eddie! — but I think if you have two or three solid options behind him as your number three, you’re probably going to be fine until July, at which point you can sort things out via trade. But if he has another year like 2022? Next winter we’ll have to start talking about him as a four or five, and absolutely needing options to slot in ahead. Ugh.
Kikuchi, on the other hand, makes some sense to move, even if the Jays would obviously have to take a bath on the deal in order to do that. Would there be takers after the season he just had? Maybe not. I’m sure plenty of fans would assume not! But sometimes these things can surprise you, and the Jays have shown a willingness to eat money in the recent past.
Tanner Roark was simply let go in early May of 2021, leaving the club on the hook for about 5/6ths of his remaining $12 million in salary, or $10 million. The Jays did manage to find a taker for Kendrys Morales’s deal in 2019, paying a little over $10 million to get out from under it, and actually getting some assets back (including the international bonus pool money used to sign Yosver Zulueta). Earlier this year they also paid nearly $10 million to the Rockies in order to get Randal Grichuk’s deal off their books (taking back Raimel Tapia and getting a prospect they like, Adrian Pinto, in the process).
If they were similarly willing to eat $10 million of what remains on Kikuchi’s deal, a team would be getting two years of a starter with genuinely great stuff for just $5 million a year. Not very enticing, given the way he commanded it last year, but if you’re a bad, pitching-desperate team, maybe it makes some sense. Baltimore Orioles, come on down!
Also, one way for the Jays to get their luxury tax number down “artificially” would be with a move like this, because the average annual value of Kikuchi’s front-loaded deal is $12 million, but his salaries for 2023 and 2024 are just $10 million. Pay half of his salary in $5 million instalments to get him off your books and the $12 million AAV is removed the your luxury tax calculation and replaced with the $5 million being paid to the sucker — er… other team — who takes him.
It would be easier to just go over the dang threshold, but if they were adamant about not doing it, that’s an option!
Of course, even without the luxury tax considerations, this might be the best way forward with Kikuchi. Intriguing as his talent remains, the Jays are in a place where they shouldn’t really be using roster spots on experiments. That’s best left for teams that aren’t actually trying to win games.
That said, they liked him enough a year ago to give him a three-year deal, and in his stuff there’s at least something to like, so it’s possible they think it’s still worth trying to fix him. Rely on him? That would be crazy.
Tiedemann — overhyped? — Laura
Thanks for the question and the support, Laura! And the concision! I could certainly use some of that myself sometimes.
The easiest thing in the world to say about any top prospect is that fans are overly excited, and to remind us all of the fact that so many of these guys bust. But the truth is, this is a really exciting prospect! And though it’s absolutely true that the vast majority of prospects bust, the major public scouting services have a pretty good record when it comes to guys who reach the upper echelons of their league-wide top 100 lists — and that’s where Tiedemann is headed.
Yeah, the Nate Pearson Experience hasn’t panned out the way anybody has hoped, so far, but I think it’s more helpful to consider how few other pitching prospects the Jays have had that were routinely ranked as high as Tiedemann — who is currently at number 33 on MLB Pipeline’s list — is right now. Alek Manoah was more of a back-end top 100 guy who amazingly showed up fully formed as a big league ace in 2021, so you have to go all the way back to the Sanchez/Stroman days to find the previous ones. That’s impressive! Especially because the makers of these lists have gotten more and more careful about putting pitchers toward the top.
Does that make Tiedemann not overhyped? I suppose not. But the idea that the Jays might have a kid with frontline starter stuff who can step into their rotation relatively soon is pretty fun. And he hasn’t given us any reason to pump the brakes on the hype yet.
Does Schneider's return mean we will see the whole rest of the coaching staff back as well? — d10k
Not necessarily, and a new manager is generally believed to have some leeway to bring in his own guys or make some changes to roles. But at Schneider’s “introductory” press conference he said that “the expectation is hopefully everyone is back in some capacity.”
Any pure speculation on candidates to assume Schneider's bench coach role? And (truly, unrelated), best manager job fits out there for Gibby? — Danny
Uh… Casey Candaele would be my best guess. But it’s certainly possible there’s a change there, I suppose. I have no idea if Schneider has a “guy” for that role — nor do I know that it’s not Candaele.
And Gibby? As much I hate to say it, I assume the best fits for him are for jobs from, like, 10 years ago. So… the White Sox maybe?
What do you see as the biggest area of concern, the outfield, bullpen, rotation, or all three? — Jay
Thanks for the question and for the support, Jay! I think it has to be the rotation. You’re likely losing Stripling, and Kikuchi, White, and the guys in Triple-A don’t inspire much confidence. Nor does Berríos, for that matter. They need to find another arm to add to that mix, and ideally two. Those additions don’t have to be stars, but some depth there is a necessity. The outfield and the bullpen aren’t perfect as currently constituted, but it would entirely be fine if they returned those groups and relied on some of the internal options they have coming to reinforce them. The back-end starting pitching floor is lower, and the reinforcements are farther away.
Two of the Blue Jays clear needs appear to be SP and a LH bat. Are there any trade candidates that would address both? — ElatedPickle
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Biggio/Merryweather/Espinal/Kirk/Jansen. We likely only keep three of these players. Which two go? — Mike
Thanks for the question and the support, man! I’m not sure I buy that only three of these guys will be back, though it’s certainly possible. For me, Merryweather is much more likely to be gone than to be back. Biggio is definitely running out of rope and it wouldn’t shock me to see him go, but I’m also kind of intrigued to see how a guy like him will be helped by the banning of the shift. It might be a mistake to let him go before we see how that impacts his production — especially since so many people think a lefty bat is necessary here.
The sample is small, but in 31 at-bats this season against an infield in a “standard” alignment, Biggio had 10 hits and a .374 wOBA. Against shifts with three infielders on the right side of second base his wOBA was .301. And against "strategic" shifts — which includes numerous funky alignments with two fielders on either side of second, the most of which for him would have been ones with the second baseman moved into short right field (soon to be illegal!) — it was .138 (though we're only talking about 11 at-bats here).
Now, if you look back at previous seasons these trends don’t hold up, so it’s a bad idea to make sweeping conclusions based on this, but maybe it’s enough to sway the decision to him another chance here.
So, to get back to your question, it could be Biggio. It could be one of the catchers — Jansen only has two years left before free agency, so that may make him slightly more likely to be the odd man out there. I’d be more surprised if it was Espinal because I would suspect they’re not ready for Otto Lopez as the full-time backup shortstop. At this point I have no idea what the front office might be thinking.
My lust for Kyle Schwarber is out of control, but assuming I can't use the power of positive thinking to will him onto the roster, what are some other lefty power bats the Jays could realistically* target this offseason? And should they?
(*I say realistically because while I would trade the entire farm system for Ohtani, I think we can all agree that this is highly unlikely.) — steve-o
Thanks for the question and the support, man!
Short answer: I have no idea.
Long answer: I haven’t really thought about the offseason in these terms because I think this priority is actually fairly far down the list, and because several dominos will probably have to fall first before we understand how a player like that might fit the roster. Right now, where would he play?
Like, I think getting a centre fielder would be a good idea, and one that hits from the left side would be even better, and that a guy with some power would be better still, but that’s a pretty narrow request. We’ve discussed Nimmo, Bellinger, and Reynolds above. I’m not sure any of those is realistic, and a lighter-hitting lefty might be ultimately be the best answer there — if the Jays even believe it’s necessary.
Another year of Springer out there, with Whit Merrifield backing him up, might not be perfect, but I don’t think it’s completely crazy to think it could work well enough that this need isn’t terribly pressing. Especially since Springer will be able to shift more naturally to a corner spot in 2024, after the Gurriel and Hernández contracts expire.
And adding lefty power elsewhere on the diamond? That’s even tougher. Are you moving Teoscar or Lourdes just to replace them with a guy who happens to hit from the left side? Are you bringing in a lefty second baseman when you’ve already got Cavan Biggio there and Addison Barger potentially coming fast? You’re not going to do it at first, or catcher, or at third, and a power-hitting lefty shortstop good enough in the field to force Bo to second base would be awfully expensive.
So… yeah, I do think it would be smart of the Jays to try to find a lefty power bat that fits their roster, especially with a view to playoff baseball, but that’s one I think can be left until July. Unless we’re talking about some of the bigger names we’ve mentioned already, like Reynolds, Bellinger, Nimmo, and, yes, Ohtani. There’s just a lot of moving parts here!
Did Schnieder ever show remorse/regrets/responsibility for Charlie's firing? He was his “right hand man.” All I remember reading was it was his dream job, goal, etc., to be manager. Overall I liked the change, but seems like Charlie was thrown under the bus. Not what you would expect from a “family” culture. Did karma get us? — Jay
Huh?
Schneider called it a “bittersweet” moment when he got the job. Regarding the idea that it was a dream come true, he literally said, “Not in this exact way because of the amount of respect I have for Charlie, but this is what I hope to do, this is kind of the end goal for me as a baseball coach when I stopped playing.”
And let’s not overstate the “right hand man” stuff here. That’s maybe an apt description of the role of a bench coach during games, but we have no idea how that relationship functioned, or was asked to function, behind the scenes. And Charlie wasn’t fired because of in-game decisions. So, for me, it’s absurd to suggest that a subordinate has anything to apologize for when, by all accounts, the team felt more leadership, and better communication from their leader, was what was needed to right the ship.
I kind of understand what you mean by it maybe seeming like Charlie was thrown under the bus a little bit, but how else is a firing like that going to work? Do we want to try to understand the reasoning behind it or not?
Clearly some fans have a real thirst for big, showy, public displays of “accountability” — puke! — when things go wrong, but I must admit that I really don’t understand it. What on earth would Schneider offering to fall on his sword do for him, the team, or anybody else?
I recognize that investing heavily in the bullpen is a real Colorado Rockies-type move. That being said, it sure has been fun watching some teams with incredible bullpens these past few weeks, and the Jays really could use some more high-octane high-strikeout guys. If you were fully Rockies-pilled, are there any top free agent relivers you would look at? — Kyle
I’m not sure that’s the lesson I’d take from a potential future where Brad Hand is a World Series champion reliever, but I suppose it’s notable that even though the Phillies’ bullpen isn’t the greatest (their ERA as a group was the eighth-worst in baseball this year), they do manage to rack up strikeouts (fourth highest K/9). The Jays’ bullpen is pretty decent, and certainly not as bad as it looked to some people in the game that ended their season, but another big arm would obviously be a great idea.
If you’re going full Rockies, the Mets’ Edwin Díaz is your guy. I don’t think it’s realistic, but he struck out more than 50% of the batters he faced this season, while pitching to a 1.31 ERA and a 0.90 FIP. Completely ridiculous.
Craig Kimbrel will always and forever be a hard pass for me. Kenley Jansen somehow keeps on trucking, so that’s an idea. Taylor Rogers fell apart after moving from the Padres to the Brewers, but the strikeout totals are still huge and his homer problems were a real outlier, so he’s definitely worth a look. The Tigers’ Andrew Chafin can opt out of his deal, which at only $6.5 million for 2023, he certainly will do. He’s not a hard thrower, and he was one of the players unable to enter Canada because of his vaccine status this year (clown), but he posted a 2.83 ERA and struck out 10.5 per nine with good walk and home run rates (good reliever), so definitely one to consider. Chris Martin I’m here for. Chad Green? Sure. Rafael Montero? Yes, provided he’s able to bring whatever the Cheatin’ Astros have used to turn his career around with him.
There are many more free agent relievers than that, and I’m sure there are plenty among them that I could talk myself into if I looked deeper into their numbers. You can go down the list yourself!
What needs to be done to capitalize on the “no shift” 2023 season? — Jay
Same as would be needed if the shift was still legal: add swing-and-miss to the bullpen.
What do you think of the sudden emergence of Gibby? Twitter, a podcast, a book... seemingly out of nowhere! — OzRob
I’d imagine he’s got an agent in his ear, or some person like that, who thinks he can capitalize on his fame here — and that, by extension, so can they. Building his brand in the hopes of landing an even bigger media gig? Seems smart.
While watching the telecasts, I find it very frustrating to notice the number of missed calls at the plate. I realize that calling balls and strikes is exceedingly difficult given the velocity and movement of the pitches, but is there no accountability? Some umpires are very good and some are consistently awful. I know that there is an umpire union, but surely in their collective agreement with MLB there should be some performance review, some guidance and additional remediation for those having consistently poor performance and, failing any significant improvement, ultimately dismissal. Andrew, why is something not done? I remember Jose Bautista's level of frustration and I'm sure that other players and fans feel the same way. Companies and industries would not tolerate this level of incompetence. What gives? — Paul
Well, clearly the billionaires who own the game enjoy letting the umpires give unions a bad name.
But yeah man, I don’t know. You make great points, but they say there’s oversight. They don’t want to change. They apparently can’t be made to.
I think the bigger question, for me, is why is the league not getting around all of this by implementing a fully-automated strike zone? Or by allowing players to challenge ball/strike calls, as is going on in places in the Arizona Fall League, and, frankly, looks awesome.
There won’t be any job losses if an umpire will still be required to stand behind the plate, so what could the union do about that?
I do think this is all coming eventually, but I share your frustration in the fact that it’s not here quite yet.
Will the larger bases change the game significantly? Who on the roster would benefit the most with this change? Would Moreno's arm and pop time be more important? — Jay
The biggest beneficiary of this change will be Vladimir Guerrero Jr., as the larger bases reduce the risk of first basemen getting spiked. That said, base stealing in the minor leagues did “skyrocket” this year, according to J.J. Cooper of Baseball America, “but that has much more to do with the other rules tweaks than it has with the larger bases.”
In particular, this was due to the new pitch clock and the limitations on pickoff attempts. So Moreno’s impressive pop times may yet prove invaluable. Which is to say… uh… valuable.
What do you think happened that took the Jays from being the favourite down to an also ran? — John
Great question, John. Thanks for the support, and also, yes, mom did bring the chicken by.
I think “also ran” is maybe a little harsh, but I know what you mean. It was a disappointing season in a lot of ways, and that definitely wasn’t helped by the way the Yankees stormed out of the gate and essentially had the division title sewn up with months left to play. But the Jays still won 92 games and were the AL’s top Wild Card team, so it wasn’t all bad.
Part of the reason this offseason is going to be such a big one for the club is that there really isn’t just one thing we could point to as to why it worked out so poorly. It was more like death by a thousand paper cuts. Guerrero’s production dipped, Springer wasn’t fully healthy, Bichette’s defence didn’t take a step forward, Teoscar wasn’t the same, Kikuchi blew up in their faces, Berríos was awful far too often, the bullpen was merely good, Mitch White didn’t help, they got nothing from Pearson and Merryweather, Biggio didn’t bounce back, Tapia wasn’t an answer, their Triple-A starters were completely absent, Gurriel lost his power.
There were good stories to counterbalance all that stuff too, of course, but that’s a whole lot to overcome. I’m not going to call 92 wins and getting bounced after two awful playoff games an accomplishment, because more is obviously expected from this group. But take away even just a couple of those negative things I’ve listed and I think the season would have felt noticeably brighter.
And now the question is, which of those things will change on their own, and which will need to be changed. I don’t envy the people who will ultimately have to make those decisions with their jobs, and millions of dollars, on the line.
Hi Andrew,
Love the blog/pod so please keep up the great work.
In case we weren’t already aware, watching the playoffs has demonstrated just how much the Jays need to beef up the bullpen and land at least one more solid starter.
But to me it has also confirmed that the Jays will not go on a deep post season run without adding at least one solid lefty (or switch hitting) bat during the off season. This has been a need for a couple of years, but I don’t think can be ignored again this off-season.
Do you see Atkins getting the go ahead for enough of a bump on the salary level to make any significant signings or will it all have to be done through trades? If so, do the Jays have enough of what other teams want? I fear they’ve let the left handed bat issue go unaddressed for so long now, teams will be jacking up the asking price for anyone they might be able to pick up via trade.
Cheers Andrew! — Cheryl
Thanks so much for the question and the support, Cheryl! And my apologies that we’ve already addressed much of this stuff earlier on in the mail bag.
The payroll situation this winter may be tight, but I would be surprised if it doesn’t go up at least somewhat. Some of that bump could absolutely go to a lefty bat, though it wouldn’t be my priority. An offence that carried a 92-win team despite downturns from Vlad, Teoscar, Lourdes, Springer, and Bo barely showing up until September is fine.
You’re not wrong that the playoffs are maybe a different story, and that Atkins himself has been clear (mostly after 2021) about the need for more balance in the lineup. But I’m intrigued by what Biggio can do without the shift, or whether Barger can make a breakthrough into the lineup, and I’d be perfectly OK with it if this is something they choose not to address until the trade deadline. As I’ve said above, there just isn’t really a place for the kind of bat you seek until they move someone out, and I’m honestly not particularly interested in moving out anybody except Gurriel, who likely won’t have much value on the market, and one of the catchers.
The Blue Jays may think differently, of course. They may think a lefty bat is more important than I do, or they may be more willing to move other guys. If an option that work for them is there, obviously they should do it. And I can admit that I might be suffering a lack of imagination on this stuff, mostly because I’m not especially inclined to look at every left-handed hitter in the league and try to figure out what his team needs, what the Jays could offer, and what other moves would need to be made to make a trade for him work. I’m happy to leave that project to the professionals in the front office and simply wait to comment on what they eventually do choose to do. But mostly I just think forcing a lefty bat into the lineup is easier said than done without some other major changes that may not make the team better.
But hey, at least the fact that it’s plausible they don’t add a lefty bat means it’s unlikely teams will be able to jack up the price on them!
What do you think the Jays see and maybe target in their repeated acquisitions of former Marlins’ relievers? Pop, Cimber, and Bass have all been acquired through trade. While Garcia is a FA signing, he spent the bulk of recent years with the Marlins. These trade acquisitions all seem like there was a lower cost, and all have been positive contributors. Garcia has been a good sign.
I don’t think this is just a coincidence. Have they found a willing trade partner? A team that has excess relievers they can get at a low trade price? Do they like the various arm angles (Cimber) or pitches (Pop, Garcia) that the Marlins have similarly targeted and developed? — Jonathan
Thanks so much for the great question and the support, man. Honestly though, I think the Garcia thing probably is mostly just coincidence, and that the other acquisitions are about something simpler than any of that.
We’ve heard complaints in the past, from Ross Atkins and elsewhere in the industry, that trades are sometimes hard to make because teams value players incredibly similarly. This maybe shouldn’t be surprising. There are a lot of executives with ties that go back to the same places — or, in a lot of instances, the same place. Cleveland’s front office in 1998 featured the following familiar names: John Hart, Dan O'Dowd, Mark Shapiro, Josh Byrnes, Paul DePodesta, Ben Cherington, Neal Huntington, and Chris Antonetti. Top people in baseball who have at some point worked under those specific guys, or under people who had previously worked under those guys, are absolutely everywhere.
This may be over-simplifying it, but I think it's part of the reason why you see guys like Dave Dombrowski or Alex Anthopoulos, who don't have the same kind of connections to that particular executive tree, operating differently than many of their counterparts. Brian Cashman fits that description as well, I think, and Miami's Kim Ng worked under him in the late 90s, until 2001, when she moved to the Dodgers — another organization that, other than DePodesta's short run in the mid-2000s, hasn't had a lot of Cleveland influence at the top.
I'm not saying that Hart's executive lineage is producing nothing but a bunch of clones, but I completely believe it's easier to make deals with an organization that values certain players of yours more than you do, and vice versa.
I'm sure that's not the only thing making the Marlins and the A's frequent trade partners of the Jays — the fact that those teams seem to be perpetually rebuilding surely doesn't hurt — but this is my preferred theory, rather than anything specific the Marlins are doing on the development side.
Pete Walker is revered for the work that he has done in the past with Ray and Matz especially. So, what gives with Jose Berrios and Yusei Kikuchi? Why do you think that Berríos has regressed and Kikuchi, with all of his talent, has been so completely unsuccessful? Why hasn't Pete's magic worked on them? Are they reluctant to change or is the change envisaged by Walker too difficult for them to implement? — Paul
Thanks so much for the question and your support, Paul!
Well, first of all I’d say that it’s because Pete isn’t magic, and never has been magic. Second of all, we’re talking about a bad year from Berríos, who has never been bad before, and I don’t think there’s anything wrong with saying that it’s difficult to help guys work their way out of that sometimes. We talked above about Cody Bellinger, who the Dodgers — the Dodgers! — weren’t able to fix.
And Kikuchi is not unlike any number of pitchers across the sport who have talent, who seem to have a path toward optimizing it, and who just can’t seem to harness it. He just happens to be a really high profile example because the Jays signed him to what’s looking like a particularly ridiculous contract. (As an aside, we also talked earlier about the deal the Jays have had to pay money to make go away, and they’re all ones where the Jays behaved in a way that it clearly seemed at the time like the rest of the league probably would not have: Morales, Grichuk, Roark, and next up maybe Kikuchi. Maybe stop doing that, Ross!)
Anyway, there definitely may be something to the fact that the Jays allow players to choose their own paths, rather than dictating changes to them, that could have hurt Kikuchi this year. Some of the changes he clearly would have been better off making seemed not to take until he was demoted to the bullpen at the end of the season. But things not clicking right away is just part of how development works, whether changes are dictated to a player or not.
When it comes to this stuff, I’m not nearly as much worried about where to point fingers as I am about what they’re going to do to try to get these guys right.
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Big effort replying to all of these and it's very much appreciated! But how do we know you didn't check Griff's answers first?