On last minute heroics, absurd Schneider stats, no I will not call him "Babe," the Jays' need for power, plus José Berríos, broadcast goodies, Vlad spray charts, Yariel Rodríguez, and more!
I know the expected stats are meant to describe how well a ball is struck and not actually for predicting outcomes, but this is still weird.
In 2021, of 115 batted balls classified as Barrel or Solid, 32 resulted in outs (28%).
In 2023, of 83 batted balls classified as Barrel or Solid, 34 resulted in outs (41%).
Looking just at Barrelled balls:
2021 - 69 Barrels, 13 outs (19%)
2023 - 56 Barrels, 19 outs (34%)
Hope things straighten out for Vlad. Or maybe just going back to trying to do damage will increase the number of balls that result in hits even if the percentage that go for outs stays high. I’d be happy with either outcome.
Caveat: These are my own numbers from a chart I’ve been building on and off (mostly off) this winter. Was trying to make a readable version of that weird graphic Baseball Savant has of the half circle with splotches on it next to the silhouette of a batter taking a swing.
Hear me out on this one. I also subscribe to Joe Posnanski's substack and he's doing a team preview and ranked the Jays 7th, but he also talked about them being a 'joyless' team. That really resonated with me. I've been following the Jays since 1977 and think I'm a fairly reasonable fan. I get caught up in the highs and lows on a daily basis (because it's fun!), but overall, I think I'm pretty tolerant of the team, even during the Luiz Gomez and Socrates Brito eras. But last year I had this strange malaise, almost boredom and disinterest, watching the team. A team that won 89 games! It was a strangely bland experience. The malaise continued in the off season and despite some nice wins this year, I'm still feeling it...or not feeling it. I think 'joyless' is apt. Maybe it's just me, but it's been bugging me and I think Joe hit the nail on the head. Anyone feel the same?
Perfectly executed, error free baseball is nice in the abstract. Something to be marvelled at the end of a season or career. Day to day, it’s boring. The day to day fun of baseball is the improbable. A runner tripping over his feet trying to steal second or a home run.
So, yeah, these Jays teams have not been fun to watch. I often have a second screen going which I never used to do before. But what’s the point of watching closely if I know plays are going to get made?
The Astros being 1-5 with a -1 run differential is the best thing about the 2024 season so far.
The second best thing is watching the Giants run out a weird, parallel universe version of the Blue Jays lineup. Last night Chapman, Soler and Conforto hit 2-3-4. They lost to the Dodgers 5-4.
……….until Jays Talk started. Yeeaysh, some pitiful stuff over there. They only took calls coming from the USA for some reason. Some jabronie from New Jersey called in and they cut him off after complaining that the front office signed too many “pansies” lmao.
You have the same Joe Siddall tweet about Kirk's better throw twice and not the one about how Tucker was able to advance to second. Which I still do not understand.
tells me that Vladdy, Kirk, and George Springer hit into a whole lot of DP last season. We're team worst at this. Which, well, if you don't have people on base you don't have that problem at all, but you won't be happy with that, either .... but it said to me that a lot of last year's woe is straight out 'hits too many ground balls'. I also don't know why they don't start the runner on first more often.
As for the other stuff, I'm not so sure. Part of it is about speed. Part of it is luck. And part of it is, like you say, having guys on base. The Jays as a team were 20th by ground ball rate, Vlad's GB% was the second lowest of his career and nearly as low as 2021, Kirk and Springer were the same as 2022. Starting the runner is great when it works!
Thank you for the link. Ok, I still don't understand what rule was involved that got Tucker to second.
So now I want stats for 'hit ground ball with runner on first' which I don't know how to extract. Maybe it is just me remembering my personal disappointments, because nothing disappoints me as much as hit-into-dp, except the ever popular 'walked the guy but not on purpose'. But maybe our ground balls were particularly untimely?
re Vladdy bombs
I know the expected stats are meant to describe how well a ball is struck and not actually for predicting outcomes, but this is still weird.
In 2021, of 115 batted balls classified as Barrel or Solid, 32 resulted in outs (28%).
In 2023, of 83 batted balls classified as Barrel or Solid, 34 resulted in outs (41%).
Looking just at Barrelled balls:
2021 - 69 Barrels, 13 outs (19%)
2023 - 56 Barrels, 19 outs (34%)
Hope things straighten out for Vlad. Or maybe just going back to trying to do damage will increase the number of balls that result in hits even if the percentage that go for outs stays high. I’d be happy with either outcome.
Caveat: These are my own numbers from a chart I’ve been building on and off (mostly off) this winter. Was trying to make a readable version of that weird graphic Baseball Savant has of the half circle with splotches on it next to the silhouette of a batter taking a swing.
Hear me out on this one. I also subscribe to Joe Posnanski's substack and he's doing a team preview and ranked the Jays 7th, but he also talked about them being a 'joyless' team. That really resonated with me. I've been following the Jays since 1977 and think I'm a fairly reasonable fan. I get caught up in the highs and lows on a daily basis (because it's fun!), but overall, I think I'm pretty tolerant of the team, even during the Luiz Gomez and Socrates Brito eras. But last year I had this strange malaise, almost boredom and disinterest, watching the team. A team that won 89 games! It was a strangely bland experience. The malaise continued in the off season and despite some nice wins this year, I'm still feeling it...or not feeling it. I think 'joyless' is apt. Maybe it's just me, but it's been bugging me and I think Joe hit the nail on the head. Anyone feel the same?
Perfectly executed, error free baseball is nice in the abstract. Something to be marvelled at the end of a season or career. Day to day, it’s boring. The day to day fun of baseball is the improbable. A runner tripping over his feet trying to steal second or a home run.
So, yeah, these Jays teams have not been fun to watch. I often have a second screen going which I never used to do before. But what’s the point of watching closely if I know plays are going to get made?
Joy comes from winning.
We won 89 times last year. It goes deeper.
The Astros being 1-5 with a -1 run differential is the best thing about the 2024 season so far.
The second best thing is watching the Giants run out a weird, parallel universe version of the Blue Jays lineup. Last night Chapman, Soler and Conforto hit 2-3-4. They lost to the Dodgers 5-4.
“The insufferable discourse paused for a moment”
……….until Jays Talk started. Yeeaysh, some pitiful stuff over there. They only took calls coming from the USA for some reason. Some jabronie from New Jersey called in and they cut him off after complaining that the front office signed too many “pansies” lmao.
What world is this? What did they do to us!
You have the same Joe Siddall tweet about Kirk's better throw twice and not the one about how Tucker was able to advance to second. Which I still do not understand.
https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/player-stat/grounded-into-double-plays?season_id=643
tells me that Vladdy, Kirk, and George Springer hit into a whole lot of DP last season. We're team worst at this. Which, well, if you don't have people on base you don't have that problem at all, but you won't be happy with that, either .... but it said to me that a lot of last year's woe is straight out 'hits too many ground balls'. I also don't know why they don't start the runner on first more often.
Thanks for catching that! Will fix. In the meantime, here's the link I meant to use: https://twitter.com/SiddallJoe/status/1775371566080987594
As for the other stuff, I'm not so sure. Part of it is about speed. Part of it is luck. And part of it is, like you say, having guys on base. The Jays as a team were 20th by ground ball rate, Vlad's GB% was the second lowest of his career and nearly as low as 2021, Kirk and Springer were the same as 2022. Starting the runner is great when it works!
Thank you for the link. Ok, I still don't understand what rule was involved that got Tucker to second.
So now I want stats for 'hit ground ball with runner on first' which I don't know how to extract. Maybe it is just me remembering my personal disappointments, because nothing disappoints me as much as hit-into-dp, except the ever popular 'walked the guy but not on purpose'. But maybe our ground balls were particularly untimely?