News and notes: Berríos speaks! Ray wins the Cy! Vlad's MVP runner-up! Verlander and Syndergaard are off the board!
On a great José Berríos presser, Ross Atkins' comments about adding starters, Robbie Ray's brilliant season and pants, Vlad's near miss, and the dwindling market for high-end short-term pitching.
José Berríos is officially re-signed, Robbie Ray is official a Cy Young winner, Shohei Ohtani (and not Vladimir Guerrero Jr.) is officially the AL’s MVP, and Justin Verlander and Noah Syndergaard are officially off the market. So let’s talk about it!
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(Yes, this was originally going to be a Today in MLBTR piece. Excuse the format.)
José Berríos makes it official!
It was obviously a great thing for the Blue Jays earlier in the week when it was reported that they had come to an agreement on a seven-year, $131 million extension with José Berríos, but boy oh boy, I don’t know if it was appreciated how big a moment this was until Berríos actually spoke about it in a press conference on Thursday afternoon.
Let’s go straight to the highlights. (You can watch the whole thing for yourself here.)
• Atkins on Berríos
We’ll start from the very beginning — Ross’s opening remarks.
This is such a huge day for the organization. As we think about what it's taken to get to the point where we can acquire someone of this magnitude, transition into the organization someone of this magnitude, and now to be here today and extending José Berríos is a very big moment for this organization. Have a lot of people to thank for that, so bear with me through the thank-yous here. First and foremost I want to thank Edward Rogers and Mark Shapiro.
Just a little bit fascinating that Edward Rogers gets the first thank you here, isn’t it?
Beyond the palace intrigue stuff though, I think Ross subtly makes a pretty interesting point here. For him it really has been quite a journey. Obviously for a long time many fans weren’t very on board with what he and Mark Shapiro were doing with this franchise, so it’s maybe been easy to miss. It has taken years for the front office and the fans to finally end up on the same page, a misalignment I wrote about as recently as 2019. But when you think about it from Atkins’ perspective — from inheriting a team that heading into 2016 had Anthony Alford, Conner Green, Richard Ureña, and Sean Reid-Foley as four of its top five prospects according to Baseball America (Vlad was number three) and was hardly a premier free agent destination, to the burgeoning powerhouse that the Toronto Blue Jays are today — it’s pretty wild!
José has one of the best reputations in baseball. We came to see why, we were able to spend time with him, to understand some of the things that make him tick, and it's well beyond the performance on the field. And what happens — that power that you see, the finesse that you see on the field, that doesn't come naturally. That comes from the years of work, the years of preparation that he continues to improve upon on a daily basis. Beyond that talent and that competitiveness and execution that you see on the field is one of the best human beings in the game. And that is extremely powerful for this organization, what that means for players that will be his teammates today and in the future, and how powerful this signing is for us today.
This front office is putting their money where their mouths have always been. They’ve talked about culture a whole lot over the years, and it becomes clearer and clearer all the time that it’s not just lip service. Here in this cynical corner of the fan base — which is a pretty big one! — we’ve goofed on the white boards full of inspirational quotes and the unflappable positivity of Charlie Montoyo and the “boardroom speak” and plenty of other things that seem unfamiliar or off-putting to us, but clearly the Jays are identifying guys that share their values, and clearly they’re getting them to buy in.
Berríos himself said plenty that made it abundantly clear why he felt like this organization was such a good fit for him. Here was one example from later on in the presser. (Note: Berríos commendably spoke in English throughout the Q&A despite it being his second language. I’ve edited slightly for clarity.)
One of the reasons I'm here — more than go(ing) out there and pitching, I know I've got more responsibility than (to) go out there and pitch — is trying to teach. I don't think I'm that guy (that) I know everything, I always learn every day, but that's why we're here, that's why we're called a team. We have to work together and that's why we have people like Ross and all the Toronto staff, to teach us, to bring us the best information, the best skill, to go out there and do our best. So I took that and bring (it) to our clubhouse. Obviously we've got a lot of young guys, but (we) have such talent. So I'm here to help them. At the same time they're going to help me. And trying to teach them the way — to try to help them to make the best decisions they can make, to put themselves in better positions, better person, better athlete. So I know this moment, this opportunity, is going to bring to me a lot of responsibility, but I've been preparing myself (for) this position.
There definitely sounds like alignment there, doesn’t there? And Atkins said outright that this was something he thought about even when acquiring Berríos at the deadline.
“I believed that José, his values, his family values, matched our team's values, and this city and country's values,” he explained, “and felt that that increased our chances of this match lasting.”
It all reminds me of something Ross said on At The Letters the other week, which I wrote about. Speaking about the success that they’ve had in Cleveland and Tampa Bay in terms of developing pitching he said: “The Rays and the [Guardians] have just been a cohesive collective group that has been together for so long, using certain tools and resources for a while, that they're seeing they've aligned the acquisition and the development, and now you're seeing the results of that.”
In other words, it’s not just about having a machine that pumps out good players, it’s about knowing which guys to put into that machine.
The Jays in the Shapiro era haven’t always gotten that right, but as Atkins made clear then, it takes a long time to get these systems in order. Plus, in previous years their opportunities could be limited by dollars, by the place of the team in the competitive cycle, by the state of the farm system when it comes to trades, etc. That seems to no longer be the case. It’s exciting.
Also exciting: José Berríos pitching for the Blue Jays! Here’s more from Atkins later on in the presser, when asked about what gives him confidence that Berríos can succeed over the course of this deal.
The durability and reliability, I think, it's second to none with José. He's been as consistent as any professional athlete in the world, really. Part of it is learning more about his routines and what has gone into that. We obviously could do that from afar, but not nearly as well as you can do that up close. And then the second thing that is arguably as important is the athleticism within his delivery, and how consistent it is. So, the combination of those things gives us a lot of confidence that what he's done will continue.
It can't be overstated what a beautiful thing it is to look at the FanGraphs page of José Berríos, Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher.
2017: 31 starts (six in the minors), 184 1/3 innings, 3.89 ERA (in MLB), 3.84 FIP, 2.7 WAR
2018: 32 starts, 192 1/3 innigs, 3.84 ERA, 3.90 FIP, 3.1 WAR
2019: 32 starts, 200 1/3 innings, 3.68 ERA, 3.85 FIP, 4.4 WAR
2020: 12 starts (shortened season), 63 innings, 4.00 ERA, 4.06 FIP, 1.1 WAR
2021: 32 starts, 192 innings, 3.52 ERA, 3.47 FIP, 4.1 WAR
They may not yet be superstar-like six-win seasons, but that's just about as solid and durable as you can possibly get otherwise. And while there’s obviously risk to any long-term deal with a pitcher, if you can’t bet on the ultra-durable 27-year-old, who on earth can you bet on?
• Atkins on filling out the rotation
Does splashing this much cash mean that the Jays are now going to be limited in what they can do this year and going forward?
“No,” Atkins said. “We are committed to continue to build upon that core.”
He later elaborated on the state of the rotation.
In an ideal world we would like for Nate Pearson, and Thomas Hatch, and Anthony Kay to earn those spots. And we want to make sure that we can cover the course of a season. So, in an ideal world we would acquire two more starting pitchers. We also have other work to do, and feel like there's other avenues to make our team better. And we're committed to all of them, you just can't always make all of them happen in one year. But feel good about having that depth behind the potential of two additions — or maybe it's only one. Also want to make sure we're looking to complement our bullpen as well.
Bumping Pearson into some type of multi-inning relief role would do a lot for the bullpen, and would probably be the best way to manage Pearson’s innings as he (once again) tries to build up to be a starter somewhere down the line. It wouldn’t hurt if he was lights out in spring training and forced his way into the equation, though, either. But obviously the most newsworthy part of Atkins’ statement there is the fact that the Jays are still looking to add a pair of starters.
Part of why that’s possible is the way that Berríos’s deal is structured, the details of which we finally learned here on Thursday. Shi Davidi of Sportsnet reported it via Twitter thusly:
$5m signing bonus; $10m in 2022; $15m in 2023; $17m in 2024; $18m in 2025 and 2026; $24m in 2027 and 2028. Opt out after fifth year, escalators based on 25-26 stats can push 27-28 to $29m.
That’s, like, really good for the team — and obviously the player as well. According to Cot’s the signing bonus will be paid out in two installments, in January and then April 2022. Berríos was projected to get something like $11 million in arbitration, so the Jays have only a little less of next year’s money tied up today as they did yesterday. They also have him locked in at a pretty good number for 2023, which is important because that’s the last year that both Hyun Jin Ryu and Randal Grichuk are under contract. Having those two on the books, plus Berríos, Springer, Vlad in arb-2 (of four), and Teoscar in arb-3, could make financial things a little bit tricky for the Jays next winter — especially if they go out and land another big contract this winter.
One more from Atkins that I think nicely wraps up all of what we’ve talked about so far.
We are committed to keeping this group together as long as we can. And has been our vision from the day that we got here, to have a group together that the fans come to love and know for a long time. And we want our players to feel the same way, and as José has expressed so well, how important they are to one another takes time sometimes. So we are absolutely committed to doing everything we can to make sure that happens.
Let’s gooooo!
• Berríos on Toronto and the Jays
If there’s any way for an athlete to endear himself to Torontonians it’s to talk up the city, and Berríos did that in a big way on Thursday at pretty much every opportunity.
We had a chance to walk around with my wife, we went to a few good restaurants from Canada — from Toronto usually. I like (to) eat, I love (to) eat, so every chance we have (in our) off time we went to some place to get great food, and enjoyed that. But, you know, most of the impressive things I've been seeing is the diversity we have here. This city is a worldly city, it's a big one. I enjoy the way the people are here. Here we can be human. You can go out there, you're going to feel safe and do your thing and have fun. Obviously I've got three kids, my wife, so I feel really comfortable to spend my next seven years here in this city.
“I'm going to be honest with you guys, I never thought I was going to play for the Toronto Blue Jays,” he said at one point. “But when we had a chance to come to this beautiful city, also this great team, made me, like, change my mind. I say, you know, God put me in this situation, in this place, to do something special.”
He obviously has $131 million reasons to to think that way. But it seems like he really does believe — and not just in the city, but in the organization, too.
I just spent two months, that was enough to make this decision, because the way they treated me, the nice welcome they gave me that July 31. Then came to Toronto, played for the home team — much better than to play as the visiting team, obviously. I enjoyed it. I had a chance to meet every person in this clubhouse. I know I've got more people to know and to spend time with them and know each other, but like I say, the way I spent the last two months of my season, 2021, here made me more easy and comfortable to make this decision.
Remember, as I wrote in my piece on the extension earlier in the week, this is a guy who seemed adamant about testing the market, and who his former team seemed to genuinely believe would do so. Not a great look if you’re the Minnesota Twins right now!
First of all, we made this decision because we believe in what Mark and Ross are building here, obviously. That gives me a lot of confidence, a lot of inspiration. Like (as) a person, and also, like, a competitive guy. Like I say, like I've been saying, my wife and I, my three kids, we like the city, we enjoy it, we feel like we are at home — because with the safety we feel so far. And obviously we have an amazing group of players in this team, and I believe, and I can promise we can go out there and do a lot of good things for the city.
Hell yes!
Also, Berríos’s competitiveness is an interesting aspect to all that, and — it turns out — to how the clubhouse culture that Shapiro and Atkins have built led him to this decision. And it’s not just about the players themselves. Here’s what he said when asked about working with pitching coach Pete Walker:
Obviously the way he treated me, the confidence he brings to me to just go out there and be me, José Berríos, that's the most important thing. In the two months we created a good friendship, relationship. I can tell he's great, great worker. He likes to work. You see him working out, so when you see that, you can see in people that they are competitive. We've got a lot of coaching staff, they try to stay in shape, being in the position that they go out there and compete together with us. So that when you saw that you took that (as) inspiration and motivation to be a better person and also be a better athlete.
Interesting take on the coaching staff from an angle that I’d certainly never though of, but I suppose it makes sense that seeing guys push themselves could create buy-in.
Asked about the fact that the Jays have a number of Spanish-speaking coaches, Berríos said:
Obviously that helped a lot. But I think, we've got a lot of Latin players and coaching staff, but the most important thing is the way we are treating each other. Not just the Latin, also with the American guys, also we've got a Korean guy, Cuban, so we've got a lot of diversity in this team — so, Canadian, too — so that's what I think.
Of his teammates he added, “Wherever we came from, we still be a person, we are human, so we have to love each other.”
A bit treacly, but kinda nice!
To close out the press conference, Berríos wanted to make it absolutely clear how grateful he was and how pleased he was about the process of dealing with the Jays.
Normally athletes, players, say this kind of thing, but I want to add to Ross's words today. He already said it but I want you guys to listen from myself. The way my agent, Nick Chanock, his company was at work with Ross and the Toronto Blue Jays, it was nicely, clearly (communicated). And all the time, every day, every second I spent in this process, I felt really comfortable. Because the way those two guys communicate, and also they communicate to me too. So I got this little joke — I don't know if I can tell it here — but that last Sunday was the 15th, right? That was the day that the guys talked a lot. I spent like maybe three or four calls during the day, talking with my agent Nick. That's Sunday. And then the next day is Monday, my kid had a class, so I had to bring them to school. So (I get back) get in bed, get to sleep, and my agent was calling me like, I don't know, maybe four, five, six times, and he didn't find me, trying to close the deal. But, like I say, when my wife came to me and said, hey, talk to Nick, he has to talk to you, and when he told me we got the deal done we talked a lot, I said thank you and everything, but at the same time I said, I believe. And I feel really comfortable with the way you guys are working. So I don't have any doubt. I wanted you guys to hear that, because they both did really nice work.
It’s hard to overstate how important it is for the Blue Jays to have players and agents thinking these kinds of things, believing in what they’re doing, and actually putting pen to paper. The Jays are always going to have a tough time competing in a division with the Yankees and the Red Sox, but they often talk about obsessing about doing everything they can to make Toronto a place where players want to play and their families want to call home and it genuinely seems to be working.
I guess Shapiro and Atkins knew what they were doing after all. Who’da thunk it? *COUGH*
Robbie Ray wins the AL Cy Young!
For weeks it’s seemed likely that Robbie Ray would win the American League Cy Young award when the results of the balloting were finally released. but it never felt like it was going to be a slam dunk. Ray obviously had an incredible season, but you had to believe that at least a few voters were going to give the most weight to things like fWAR, in which he ranked seventh among qualified starters in the AL, or FIP, in which he ranked eighth, rather than the generally more traditional metrics in which he excelled — ERA, innings pitched, strikeouts. Ray did lead the pack according to the Baseball Reference version of WAR by a full win, which makes a pretty compelling case to those uncomfortable with FIP, and meant that I was pretty confident that he would win. What I would not have predicted, however, was that he'd do so by a landslide.
Of the thirty voters on the award, twenty-nine voted Ray in first place. Only poor Jason Beck, MLB.com’s Tigers beat reporter, had Gerrit Cole ahead instead — an entirely defensible vote that he’s getting far too much negative attention for on the internet. (Negative attention on the internet? Shocking, I say.)
But enough about the balloting. Ray is a fully deserved winner and becomes the fourth Blue Jays pitcher to take home the award — the first since Roy Halladay way back in 2003. (The others, of course, are Pat Hentgen and Roger Clemens twice.)
This is cause for celebration, because even though the 2021 Blue Jays somehow managed to miss the playoffs, they still put on a hell of a show all year long — especially in the second half, and especially after their return to Toronto — and Ray was an enormous part of that.
I really should have prepared something for this. But honestly, having watched him all season, we all know how great Robbie Ray was. Jays fans are the last people who need convincing of what an incredible pitcher he is. Though I guess it turns out that there aren’t a whole lot of others who need convincing either.
Congrats Robbie! Bring these delightful people back to Toronto, Blue Jays!
Managers of the Year named on Tuesday
Sticking with awards, Blue Jays manager Charlie Montoyo finished fourth in AL Manager of the Year balloting, behind the Astros’ Dusty Baker, Scott Servais of the Mariners, and now back-to-back winner Kevin Cash of the Rays. Montoyo did pick up a trio of first place votes, one of which came from the Toronto Star’s Mike Wilner. Fortunately for the state of my Twitter timeline on Tuesday night, the other two votes for Montoyo were from writers employed outside of the market — The AP's Twins guy Dave Campbell, and Jim Alexander of the Southern California News Group (i.e. the OC Register).
Manager of the year is a weird award, because so much of what managers do is opaque. Usually it’s really just an award for the manager of the team that most exceeded reporters’ pre-season expectations, or otherwise did the most with the least amount of talent. Obviously Wilner’s vote elicited groans from certain corners, but I think it’s totally valid to have the guy whose team won 91 games despite playing almost four months of the season on the road at the top of your ballot too!
Vlad is the runner-up for AL MVP
OK, so the votes for Cole ahead of Ray, and the votes for Montoyo as Manager of the Year were at least defensible. I’m having a little harder time with what happened in the AL MVP balloting — you know, in as much as I care about such things, which is honestly very little. The Angels’ Shohei Ohtani unanimously won the award after a brilliant, unfathomable season in which he posted a 152 wRC+ with 46 bombs while also pitching 130 1/3 innings of 3.18 ERA ball with 156 strikeouts. There is absolutely no shame in losing to a guy who did that, and that Ohtani took this award over Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is thoroughly unsurprising. What’s surprising is that Vlad, who will have to wait a little longer to add an AL MVP to his trophy case, was not the unanimous second place finisher. One voter, Lynn Worthy of the Kansas City Star, had Vlad third and Royals catcher Sal Pérez second. Whoopsie!
This matters very little — I’m not sure why people create separate tiers in their for unanimous award wins or first place Hall of Fame entrances just so they have more opinions to police, and I sure as hell hope that nobody would get upset about someone not being unanimously voted second place! — but it is definitely funny.
Anyway, much like Robbie Ray, I don’t have anything prepared for this, but it’s not like it’s a secret to Jays fans that Vlad had a monster season and is awesome and the team ought to extend him and have a heartwarming press conference like the Berríos one as soon as possible. Plus, all the Vlad things that need to be said are already being said by Drew Fairservice at Vlad Religion, and I certainly couldn’t do it any better.
The Jays did put out a nice tribute video for him, though.
(“First full year in the majors” is doing some heavy lifting there seeing as one was shortened by a pandemic and the other he was absolutely not going to be on the roster on opening day for service time reasons, ain’t it?)
Justin Verlander stays in Houston / Noah Syndergaard chooses Anaheim
I’m lumping these two together because they’re somewhat linked as post-injury once-elite power arms looking for short-term deals. The Jays came up in rumours several times regarding the pair, but ultimately Syndergaard went to the Angels for one year at $21 million, while Verlander stays with the Astros for one-year at $25 million, plus a player option for another $25 million.
On Syndergaard, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post, the Jays “were the other team most interested.” The price that Anaheim paid was definitely high — in addition to the high one-year salary, they’ll also surrender their second-round draft pick next summer, as well as $500,000 from their international bonus pool — so it’s understandable why the Jays’ top offer came up short. With compensation picks expected to come back if Marcus Semien and Robbie Ray (who formally declined his qualifying offer on Wednesday; Semien had done so a few days earlier) sign elsewhere, the Jays were in a position where they could burn a second-rounder a little more comfortably than most, though it certainly would have been a bit out of character. It’s also possible that their offer was of a different shape — perhaps a two-year deal, or one with a club option involved — that wasn’t as appealing to Syndergaard, whose preference was surely to take a pillow deal to show that he’s healthy before hitting a truly massive payday next winter.
With Verlander, it seems like comfort was a big deal to him. You know, the comfort of $50 million guaranteed with a chance to opt out and sign an even bigger deal next winter! But also the comfort of his home in West Palm Beach, Florida, which is where the Astros train. Convenient!
I’m not sure how close the Jays may have really got on him — not that I know how close they got on anyone! — but I can’t help but wonder how seriously he really was considering picking a team that trains on the other side of the state. Of course, if that helped rule out the Yankees and Red Sox as well, I guess I can live with that.
So where do the Jays go on the pitching market from here? Unless they somehow convince Max Scherzer to take their money they won’t be finding someone on a short-term deal with nearly the upside of these two. However, as their reported pursuit of Eduardo Ródriguez shows, they’re not necessarily focused on short-term contracts. I don’t think Robbie Ray or a longer-term play is off the table here, but I’m sure they’re going to be cognizant of maintaining some “agility” for next winter. As mentioned above, the fact that José Berríos will only be making $15 million helps in that regard, but it’s still a little tricky.
According to Cot's they've already got $76.3 million committed for 2023, and with arbitration raises for Vlad and Teoscar that will easily take them over $100 million. You probably need another $10 million for pre-arb players and non-roster guys on the 40-man. Another $15 million or more will go to Biggio, Biggio, Ciber, Jansen, Mayza, Richards, and Romano, who are all arb-eligible.
Obviously this would be no issue for Rogers, but we'd starting to get toward unprecedented territory if the Jays had added, say, Verlander at $25 million, plus potentially another muli-year piece or two to fill out this year's roster.
That doesn't mean they won't do it — they can and should spend — but it's interesting to think where that's all going to go.
Scherzer is still out there. Kevin Gausman is still out there. Carlos Rodón (and his durability concerns) is still out there. Robbie Ray is, of course, still out there. But after that the options for a real frontline starter really aren’t there on the free agent market.
Will the Jays really go for another nine-figure pitcher? I wouldn’t rule it out, but I still have a hard time seeing it. So maybe it’s now time that they pivot and try for a couple mid- to back-of-the-rotation arms, or go the trade route for someone cheaper.
Then again, maybe it’s not.
Unfortunately, Verlander and Syndergaard were really good fits for exactly what they are presumably trying to do here, and now they’re off the table. Hey, but at least they’re not headed to New York or Boston!
News and notes: Berríos speaks! Ray wins the Cy! Vlad's MVP runner-up! Verlander and Syndergaard are off the board!
My guess would be one more Matz type free agent, maybe even Matz. I would expect another starter to come via trade. Im sure they would like a Berrios type but that's easier said than done. I wouldn't be shocked to see Kirk and Groshans included in a deal for the right pitcher. As you pointed out previously they have a glut of infielders on or being added to the 40 man so perhaps that makes Groshans slightly more tradeable? I guess that will partially be dictated by who the sign to play the infield next year as well as the term.
Despite the hints at a couple more deals I still cannot envision Semien or Ray returning. Not on anything like the 5 and 6 years deals that are rumoured. Perhaps if Ray is very Toronto friendly, maybe. I'm not uncomfortable with Berrios as our #1 at all. DeSclafani, Manaea, Lopez, Matz (of course) are among many rotation pieces I think would make a tremendously high quality one through five rotation.