News, Notes, Thoughts: On ownership, catchers, outfielders, and more!
Plus: The Mets' spending spree, Sean Murphy, the Miami connection, trading Jano, Conforto/Gallo/Brantley/Benintendi, Bryan Reynolds, Liam Hendriks, Ross Stripling, Dome renovations, TJ House, & more!
The offseason is chugging along, with all sorts of rumoury goodness swirling around out there now that we’re a week removed from the fast-paced action of the Winter Meetings. And the Blue Jays are finally active participants! (Non-Trading One of Your Best Hitters for a Reliever Division).
There are several things worth hitting on that I wasn’t able to in Monday’s Chris Bassitt piece, but that aren’t themselves worthy of a full post. So here they all are!
Fingers crossed Ross doesn’t trade a catcher before I’m through writing this…
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• It’s pretty quaint to think that it was just two winters ago, in the early days of Steve Cohen’s ownership of the Mets, that the Blue Jays landed free agent George Springer despite reportedly sizeable interest from Queens — and Springer’s own apparent desire to play closer to his Connecticut home. According to Joel Sherman of the New York Post back in January of 2021, the Mets wouldn’t push their offer to Springer past $120 million. The Jays needed to go above and beyond to differentiate themselves, ultimately giving him $150 million, but however it happened, it happened. And the fact that they won a bidding war with the thirteen-billionaire1 now seems pretty remarkable.
The Mets have spent like drunken sailors this winter, committing nearly half a billion dollars in deals for Brandon Nimmon ($162 million), Edwin Díaz ($102 million), Justin Verlander ($87 million), Kodai Senga ($75 million), José Quintana ($26 million) and David Robertson ($10 million). It's game-changing stuff, as Cohen is allowing his team's payroll — and luxury tax bill — to be taken higher than would have seemed imaginable for any club just a few short years ago.
Amazingly — or, if you will, Amazin’ly — it’s not even clear that the Mets have gotten a whole lot better. Nimmo and Díaz were re-signings, and Verlander, Senga, and Quintana are replacements for departing free agents Jacob deGrom, Taijuan Walker, and Chris Bassitt. This means that the Mets still have work to do, and seemingly will continue to throw money around. And that’s awesome.
Yes, it’s been frustrating to watch Jays targets like Nimmo, Verlander, and Senga taken off the market by a team not playing by the “rules,” but more teams ought to be bucking those rules. More teams need benevolent billionaires who care more about the next win than the next dollar.
Hey! And I think I know a team that has one of those in their back pocket…
• I feel dirty advocating billionaires doing anything, frankly. No one should have that much wealth, for the record! But that’s not the world we live in, and it’s certainly interesting to watch what the Mets are doing. Of course, the vast majority of teams are already owned by billionaires and they’re not operating like Cohen is, so we should perhaps be careful what we wish for. But for the Blue Jays, in particular, it’s interesting to think of what the world might be like if they were less constricted by concerns about shareholders and quarterly reports.
Um, unless that’s what we’ve been seeing from them lately anyway.
The Jays are spending like never before, publicly admitting a willingness to potentially spend like never thought possible, and continuing to grow payroll despite barely playing home games for two years and barely generating local TV revenue in 2020.
Now, we know that there are so many ancillary revenue streams out there for teams that local dollars don’t tremendously matter, so I want to be careful not to give too much credit here. The Padres are out there spending like mad, for crying out loud! But there’s definitely been a change for the better compared to the pre-Mark Shapiro days. And the more I think of it, for as easy as it is to pine for Fast Eddie to spin the team out of the Rogers empire and really start spending — which I’ve done! — maybe the status quo is the ideal setup for fans and for him anyway.
The ability to grow spending without the personal scrutiny of being in control of the purse strings? Seems pretty sweet.
• Whatever is going on in the upper boardrooms, and whatever will go on in the future, we do have one tangible thing that, interestingly, has changed recently: the addition of Roger Rai to the Blue Jays’ front office directory. And it’s not just any mere listing, as his name lands directly under that of Edward Rogers, with the title Vice Chairman, Toronto Blue Jays.
According to the Wayback Machine, Rai’s name wasn’t listed when the directory page was crawled back in late September, but was there by the middle of last month.
What, if anything, does it mean? I have no idea. But a fun interpretation would be that it’s a signal that the club is becoming even more of an “Ed thing” within the company, and less just one asset within a large portfolio.
After all, Rai is a longtime friend of Edward Rogers — or, as Bob Elliott described in the Toronto Sun back in 2015, “Ed Rogers’ pal from their University of Western Ontario days.”
In that piece, Elliott identifies Rai as the “deep-throated caller” who spoke to White Sox GM Ken Williams in the winter of 2014 as part of Eddie's hilariously bungled attempt to oust Paul Beeston from his position as president of the club, and who — along with Rogers — met with Yankees president Randy Levine "to ask for names of a possible Beeston successor."
Ugly and dumb as that incident was, it's hard to say that things haven't improved for the club with a less adversarial CEO in place. I can also say, having interacted with him a little bit online, that Rai is certainly passionate about the Jays. He's long been a background figure around the club — he represented the team at the owners meetings in November 2016 — but now apparently is there in an official capacity.
I'll repeat it louder for the Reddit commenters in the back: Interesting!
• OK, the catching market. Things are moving pretty quickly on this front, as several options came off the board on Monday and early Tuesday. Sean Murphy has been sent to the Braves, who sent sent William Contreras to the Brewers and Manny Piña to the A's in the deal, likely settling the position for all three teams. Christian Vazquez has been signed by the Twins, likely ruling out the Jays taking a run at Max Kepler (which the Kiermaier signing probably did anyway). And Mike Zunino has been signed by the Guardians.
There are, however, still teams out there likely looking for help behind the plate…
The Rays, Pirates, Astros, and Marlins have all been mentioned as potentially being in the market as well. And according to ESPN's Jeff Passan, writing after the signing of Chris Bassitt, the Jays "continue to "discuss" trading one of their backstops, "with teams still showing significant interest."
That doesn't necessarily mean it's a seller’s market though. The Pirates have 2021 first overall pick Henry Davis in Double-A, the Astros have 2019 first-rounder Kory Lee ready for more playing time behind the plate, the Rays are the Rays (and not especially likely to make a deal with another win-now team in the AL East), and the Marlins may not be as interested as believed.
• The Miami Herald's Craig Mish, responding to Ben Turner (a must-follow on Twitter for Jays-related news and rumblings), threw a bit of cold water on the idea of the two teams linking up on Modnay. The Marlins, he says, "looked at Murphy because Oakland was motivated and he provided a significant upgrade." The Jays' options are not as enticing, in his view. Though he adds that this is just him wondering "why on earth are they looking at catchers when I feel they have much bigger needs."
Complicating matters even more is the fact that other teams may consider offering backstops in the right deal. MLBTR's Nick Deeds explains:
“If the Braves get an offer to their liking regarding Travis d’Arnaud, he could be flipped elsewhere while the team pivots to sign a less-expensive backup to Murphy. The Padres could offer up one of Luis Campusano or Austin Nola, while the Rangers have MLB-ready catchers in Jonah Heim, Sam Huff, and Mitch Garver.”
In other words, it may still take some time for this market to play out, or it may not happen at all! I tend to think it would be terrible asset management for the Jays to wind up keeping all three catchers — essentially turning Moreno into yet another of what Dan Syzmborski says in his recent Jays ZiPS projections piece at FanGraphs are "a billion one-WAR infielders in the minors, like they obtained a slightly blemished mold from the Joey Wendle factory."
Moreno wouldn't be in the minors, I don't think. But are Biggio, Merrifield, Espinal, and potentially someone like Addison Barger not enough in the utility guy department? Turn a catcher whose best skills you are going to waste at least 2/3 of the time into someone you can get more out of already!
• Which catcher should actually be moved remains an interesting question. For me, the answer has always tilted heavily toward Danny Jansen. Even if the return may not be as great as on the others, he’s shown a very promising bat when healthy the last two years, but is only a couple years from free agency anyway, and growing in cost. Plus, it’s not like the Jays are shy about dealing him, either. Last week, Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi reported this:
“[The Jays] and the Cardinals both held their ground, prompting St. Louis to sign Contreras instead of trading for Danny Jansen or Oakland’s Sean Murphy. One industry source believes the Cardinals never engaged on outfielders Lars Nootbar and Dylan Carlson and tried to make a deal with closer Ryan Helsley instead.”
I might have taken Jansen for Helsley instead of Teosar Hernández for Erik Swanson, personally. *COUGH*. But there’s at least one guy out there — who knows a hell of a lot more than I do — who is very reticent about the idea of the team choosing the young duo of Kirk and Moreno going forward.
Now, the veteran catcher Joe is talking about doesn’t necessarily have to be Jansen — and his low strike issue could be particularly pronounced with a sinkerballer like Bassitt now in the rotation — but the idea of having a veteran around is hardly to be dismissed out of hand. Kinda brings you right back to that same asset management problem, though.
Unless, that is, the Jays want to keep Jansen and trade one of either Kirk or Moreno. And if they’ve decided — which the talks with the Cardinals suggest they have not! — that they can’t go forward with a Kirk/Moreno duo, they absolutely should do so.
• And yet, the return that the A’s received for Sean Murphy was light enough to give one pause. Commenting that the A’s got “quantity without quality” in return for Murphy — i.e. a typical A’s return! — the Athletic’s Keith Law explains that “there’s nobody here who has appeared on my top 100 prospects lists in the past or will appear on this year’s, and I don’t feel like there’s anybody who’s that close.”
Surely part of the reason is the fact that, as Mish noted re: the Marlins’ interest, the A’s were motivated sellers. Murphy is projected by MLBTR to make $3.5 million in arbitration this winter, with two more escalating salaries to come before he reaches free agency — too rich for an A’s organization committed to squeezing every dollar out of the team while crying poor in an attempt to extort public money for a new stadium. They also acquired catcher Shea “Stephen King’s the” Langeliers last spring in the Matt Olson trade, making it clear that Murphy would be on his way out.
The Jays aren’t quite in that position with their trio, but one wonders how much their posturing about going into the season with all three is actually believed by the industry. If it’s not, the packages on offer may be similarly uninspiring.
• The Jays obviously still also have some work to do on the outfield front, and there are several free agent names frequently being speculated about by fans and media. The principal four — Andrew Benintendi, Michael Brantley, Michael Conforto, and Joey Gallo — were examined in depth this week by Bob Ritchie over at Jays From the Couch. He landed on Gallo as the best option, and I don’t necessarily disagree. But I can’t say I agree either. Give it a read!
As is cited, Benintendi will likely be too expensive, as he’s coming off a 122 wRC+ season (also: hard meh on that one). I think Bob’s right that Brantley is probably too limited defensively for a Jays team clearly looking to improve run prevention and won’t have many DH at-bats available. Conforto is definitely scary for having not played at all in 2022, though I don’t agree with the piece’s assessment that he can’t play left field — a position he hasn’t manned since 2018, but has logged over 2,000 innings in as a big leaguer.
For me, that changes the conclusion. Gallo certainly could be due a bounce back, particularly with the removal of the shift. But he could also be an incredibly frustrating player to watch — a strikeout rate of nearly 40% in 2022 — and at least Conforto seems more likely to be hurt than completely suck.
I also don’t hate this:
Quickly…
• Though Pirates centre fielder Bryan Reynolds remains very much a person of interest for Jays fans — and, presumably, the Jays, as well as the rest of the sport — the fact that the 27-year-old has requested a trade doesn’t seem to have changed Pittsburgh’s astronomical demands. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports that a “rival official, in what surely was an exaggeration” told him that the Pirates want a “Soto-type package.” MLBTR passes along that when the Mariners asked about him at the 2021 trade deadline, the ask began with Julio Rodríguez. Yikes.
• The Jays could theoretically still find a way to make a Reynolds deal happen, I suppose. But with Davis in Double-A and young backstop Endy Rodriguez even closer to the bigs, it would likely require some kind of a three-team deal where the Jays flipped the prospects received for a Kirk or a Moreno to the Pirates. Especially since Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi told the Fan Morning Show on Monday that he doesn’t believe the Jays have the appetite for trading their own prospects right now. (The correct approach, I’d say).
• Sticking with Shi, as Ben Turner points out, he has speculated more than once about there potentially being a fit between the Jays and White Sox involving closer Liam Hendriks. He makes the suggestion in his Chris Bassitt reaction piece, and I can’t say I don’t like it — provided the Jays could make the dollars work. Hendriks makes $15 million in 2023, with a $15 million club option for 2024 that includes a $15 million buyout. Yes, you read that correctly. If the White Sox — or whoever employs him at the time — choose to decline Hendriks' option for 2024 he will still be owed $15 million. The trick is, it will come in 10 deferred payments of $1.5 million per year. However it works, that's a reasonable deal for one of the best relievers in the game — less than the Red Sox will be paying Kenley Jansen for the next two years — and would elevate the Jays' bullpen into the realm of the elite. Not sure how feasible it is, but yes, please.
• Much of the talk around the Jays has shifted away from the pitching market, but there are remaining options out there for them as well. After all, they’re still looking at either Mitch White or Yusei Kikuchi as their fifth starter right now. One option that is no longer on the table, sadly, is a reunion with Ross Stripling. The San Francisco Giants have signed Chicken Strip to a two-year, $25 million deal, as first reported by Jeff Passan. That’s a nice payday for the guy who saved the Blue Jays’ season in 2022, and a great landing spot — even for an ex-Dodger. It’s a pitcher-friendly ballpark, a strong team in a fun division, and a team that has done an excellent job with lower-tier free agent starters in recent years. One can only wish him the best of luck. (Oh, and he has an opt-out after year one, so here’s hoping he performs again and the market is even kinder to him next winter!)
• Does the Stripling signing take the Giants out of the Carlos Ródon sweepstakes? I certainly hope not, because the Yankees appear to be all over that one, and I’ve decided that the Yankees getting good players is bad.
• More on the old friend pitching front, as Jon Heyman tweets that Patrick Murphy — once a very intriguing Jays prospect who struggled with injuries and ultimately only ever logged 15 1/3 innings for the club before being claimed on waivers by the Nationals in 2021 — has inked a minor league deal with the Twins.
• The Blue Jays have released a short video with an update on how the Rogers Centre’s outfield renovation is going. It’s still far from a finished product, buy you can start to see where this is headed. Exciting stuff!
• Meanwhile, uh, you keep doin’ you, Rays. Lmao.
• Lastly, kudos to TJ House! The left-hander pitched two innings for the Jays in 2017 while also making 24 starts for the Bisons. But, uh, the kudos are obviously not for that…
According to Bloomberg’s Billionaires Index, Cohen’s net worth checks in at $12.8 billion. And according to his Wikipedia — a page that includes sections like “Racketeering and insider trading charges” and “SEC investigation” — Cohen donated $1 million to Donald Trump’s inauguration and helped fund New York mayoral candidates Andrew Yang and now-mayor Eric Adams. Make no mistake, this dude sucks!
Great stuff as always. Adding Hendricks to the bullpen would absolutely rule.
As for the surplus of catchers, if the Jays can't line up a trade to their liking, would moving Moreno to a corner OF spot solve a lot of problems here, or is that (as I kind of suspect) poor asset management since a lot of his value is tied to him being a catcher?
Love The Langoliers reference. If you haven't watched the 1995 miniseries its worth checking out.