Rumours and links and things: Wednesday, January 6

Still with Sugano, Morosi makes us morose, upset agents, Ha-Seong Kim, Jake Odorizzi, the relief market, and more!

Before we get into our latest batch of Jays-related rumours and thoughts, I’d first like to draw your attention to the post below this one: a call for questions for this week’s mail bag. I didn’t send that one via email blast because I didn’t want to spam those of you who’ve signed up for free. As the post says, only paid subscribers will be able to submit mail bag — something I hope entices some of you to subscribe or upgrade. Don’t worry though, it will be free to read when it drops later on this week.

Now, on to some lukewarm hotstove action!

Still waiting on Sugano

This site is three days old and this is already going to be the third time we’re discussing Tomoyuki Sugano, the veteran Yomiuri Giants right-hander whose deadline to sign with an MLB club is fast approaching.

Technically he has until tomorrow to sign a deal, but given that he’ll have to take a physical before doing so it seems more likely that we’ll hear something today. Of course, we were supposed to get an announcement from him yesterday, but obviously that didn’t happen.

Is it possible that the soft Tuesday deadline that was reported earlier in the week, the fact that details about his offer to stay in Japan leaked out (Yomiuri reportedly has a four-year deal with three opt-outs on the table), and the bluster about going back to Japan were attempts by his camp to force better offers from his big league suitors? If so, maybe that’s an indication that he really does want to make the jump and test himself in the best league in the world. He really has nothing left to prove in Japan, having twice won the Eiji Sawamura Award (Japan’s equivalent of a Cy Young) and twice (including 2020) won the Central League’s MVP award.

If that’s true, it could be good news for the Blue Jays, as Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported on Wednesday morning that “some in the industry believe the Blue Jays made a strong bid.” He adds, however, that Sugano still “apparently is not getting his desired number.”

Ken also suggests that Sugano would be looking for a similar deal to the one that the Mariners gave Yusei Kikuchi in 2019: four-years and $56 million (plus a $10.275 million posting fee on top of that). Kikuchi was younger at the time of his deal — he debuted in his age-28 season, while Sugano is 31 — but their NPB numbers are comparable. I included a bunch of Sugano links in yesterday’s post, so there’s really no need to say too much more about it, but the consensus seems to be that he’s got the stuff and the elite command to be what one of the many reports called a “strong number three,” with the potential that he could be even more.

A deal like Kikuchi’s sounds pretty reasonable, and the Blue Jays could definitely afford it and still continue to do more.

Morosi dumps some cold water

MLB Network’s Jon Morosi joined Tim and Sid on Sportsnet on Tuesday evening (starts around the 1:21:00 mark), and he was pretty blunt about what he thinks the Jays’ chances of being real players on the elite free agent market are at this point.

The Jays, their interest in the key players here -- the big free agents: Bauer, Liam Hendriks, of course -- it's all sincere and it's all legitimate. I think the question now is, in the midst of -- as we just talked about with the border and the considerations of the world -- how do you get that player to buy in and do you have to overpay to bring him in under the current circumstances?

I do think the Jays are right there on Springer. I think it's probably down to the Mets and the Jays for him. Obviously he has not heard what offer he wants yet and that's why he's still unsigned. Sugano, I really, if I had to guess right now, I think the Jays are interested but I would not expect him to sign in Toronto based on what I've heard lately. I wouldn't rule it out totally, but of course he's got about 48 hours to make the decision.

I would say unlikely on Sugano, but I do think they find a way to get a significant free agent, but it's hard to call them the favourite right now for any of the very big ones. Whether it's Springer, whether it's LeMahieu -- I still think he ends up going back to the Yankees. Realmuto, I think he probably goes back to the Phillies.

They're involved, they're talking to everybody, but I think it might be more of a Liam Hendriks plus a Taijuan Walker, or maybe they even go the route of a Masahiro Tanaka. But if I had to guess right now I'd say Springer more likely goes to the Mets and LeMahieu more likely goes to the Yankees right now. I wish I had better news for the Jays fans, but I think right now that's the way things are looking.

Things can obviously change quickly, and everything at this time of year needs to be taken with a huge grain of salt, but that’s a bit disappointing to hear. And yet, probably realistic?

And also, actually pretty good when you think about it. I think the expectations for these next few weeks still have to be higher. The Jays should find a way to add elite talent, because opportunities to bid for guys like Springer and Realmuto without the Yankees or Dodgers or Red Sox or Cubs involved simply don’t come around very often. But Morosi’s scenario still leaves open the possibility of trades, and we can’t deny that Hendriks is a real difference-maker out of the bullpen, and that Walker — provided he’s the same guy we saw and liked so much in 2020 — is a really nice pitcher to have in your rotation.

They’re both fun to cheer for, too. As is someone like Francisco Lindor, who is still very much available on the trade market, according to Rosenthal’s piece linked above. In fact, Ken lists the Jays as one of the few realistic suitors for Lindor, which obviously is a move that would make the addition of a couple good-not-great players via free agency a whoooooooole lot more palatable.

Unfortunately, Rosenthal also suggests that if the perfect storm doesn’t arise, Cleveland could potentially hold Lindor until the trade deadline and hope for the best. The Donaldson strategy! Always a smashing success! *COUGH*

Quickly

• The free agent market continues, apart from guys with guys signing deals through the posting system, to move at a glacial pace. Presumably a lot of it has to do with the uncertainty about when the season is going to start (though Evan Drellich of the Athletic reported this week that the league is still on track to start spring training on time) and, more importantly, how many fans teams will be able to get into their ballparks next summer. However, Bob Nightengale of USA Today spoke to some agents who told a slightly different story. “We all lost money in the pandemic, but they’re all reading from the same script,’’ one told him. “They say, 'I have no idea what my budget is.’ Every single GM is telling me that. It’s all B.S. They don’t know what the budget is until they sign the player they want. They’re trying to manufacture a depressed market."

• Former Blue Jays target Ha-Seong Kim made some waves on Tuesday with a confident performance during his introductory press conference in San Diego. It turns out, however, that he maybe wasn’t quite as bold as the initial reports made it seem. Still seems like a guy it would have been extremely fun to have on the Blue Jays though!

  Jeeho Yoo @Jeeho_1

  Kim never said "World Series champion this year" in Korean, though.🤦‍♂️The interpreter was mostly fine, but what Kim did say was (when asked about his position), "It doesn't matter where I play. I know the Padres are good enough to win a championship and that's why I signed."

  

  AJ Cassavell @AJCassavell

  Ha-Seong Kim is bringing it in his introductory presser. Why join a team that already had a pretty packed infield? "Because the Padres ... will become the World Series champion this year. I want to be part of a winning team, that's why I joined the San Diego Padres."

• Over at MLB Trade Rumors we’re pointed to a piece on reliever Brad Hand, who has added the White Sox and Dodgers to his list of suitors. The Jays have been known to be interested in Hand since late November (though, of course, they should have been interested in late October, when his one-year, $10 million option could have been claimed on waivers), and with this news, the news of Liam Hendriks visiting the Jays earlier in the week, and the Dodgers re-signing Blake Treinen for two-years and $17.5 million (plus an option), it seems as though the relief market may actually be close to moving in a serious way. That’s not a typical market that the Blue Jays play in, preferring to build their bullpens on the cheap (as they’ve done since the Anthopoulos days), but this year could be an exception. They do need help there, without question.

• A name that we haven’t heard much about lately, despite the Jays being connected to him (because they’re connected to everyone) earlier in the off-season is Jake Odorizzi. It was just last winter that the Jays were thought to have had genuine interest in him, though they were unable to entice him to decline a qualifying offer from the Twins. By taking the QO, Odorizzi ensured that he wouldn’t have draft pick compensation hanging around him and artificially depressing his market. Unfortunately for him, 2020 didn’t go so well. Because of injury he made just four starts, and was awful whenever he did take the ball, allowing 10 earned runs over 13 2/3 innings on the season. An AL Notes piece at MLBTR points us to a tweet from Mark Feinsand of MLB.com, who says that the Red Sox — now helmed by Chaim Bloom, who had Odorizzi from 2013 to 2017 with the Rays — have serious interest in him now. He’d be an interesting guy for the Jays to circle back to if their attempts to land bigger targets don’t pan out, I think.

• Bob Ritchie of Jays From the Couch makes the case for the status quo at shortstop in 2021, preferring that the Jays see what Bo Bichette can do with the position over a full season, then potentially hitting the free agent market next winter, when guys like Lindor, Carlos Correa, Trevor Story, Corey Seager, and Javier Báez are set to be free agents.

• Speaking of mail bags (weren’t we?), Gregor Chisholm has a fresh version of his excellent one up at the Toronto Star. As always, I have read all of Gregor’s answers.

• A.J. Burnett is on the Hall of Fame ballot this year, if you can believe it. And while Pete Puma’s case for induction isn’t great, Jay Jaffe of FanGraphs takes a look at it anyway, and does a great job of helping us relieve what was genuinely a fascinating career.

• Over at Jays Journal, Chris Henderson makes the case for the Jays building a “super bullpen” this winter — a case that, frankly, is hard to argue with.

Lastly…

This small thread from Matt Winkelman I thought was pretty on the nose about one of the big problems with the way Major League Baseball operates here in 2021.

Matt Winkelman @Matt_Winkelman

The growing trend in baseball team management is that the team itself is just a money pit and the real money is in milking tv deals, real estate, government subsidies, and other things that increase investor profits. They are rapidly becoming not sports teams.

Matt Winkelman @Matt_Winkelman

The product that a sports team sells is entertainment. For sports, a lot of that is them performing well (there is some fun, nostalgia, and likeability wrapped in). Some of that is the experience, especially in person.

Matt Winkelman @Matt_Winkelman

The other trend (and this also plays into the hostile takeover of the minors) is that the in person entertainment value has tanked immensely. It is becoming preposterously expensive to go to a baseball game. That really takes away a lot of the fun of a team not being great.

The Blue Jays have certainly been guilty of most of the things he’s talking about. The TV rights arrangement between the Jays and Sportsnet is certainly friendly to Rogers’ investors. The club successfully lobbied local and state governments in Florida to help fund massive upgrades to their spring training complex and stadium. And the talk several weeks ago about Rogers potentially building a new ballpark to the south of most of the current site — something I went over in detail in my off-season catch-up post on Monday — is more a real estate project than a baseball one (hence it not being in Mark Shapiro’s “windshield”) and also surely involved more lobbying for subsidies.

What really stuck out to me about what Matt is saying, though, was in the last tweet. The only reason that I’m here writing about the Blue Jays, and I’m sure a big reason that many of you are as into the team as you are, is the fact that tickets to a game used to be incredibly affordable. I loved baseball as a kid during the Jays’ glory years and would still get to games when I was in high school, but strongest bond to the team was forged by way of the Toronto Star Pass.

Most of those teams in the Ricciardi era — the Toonie Tuesday era — were not great, but the ballpark was still a great and affordable place to be. Especially if you snuck in your own booze. There was a year where I probably went to 60 games despite being a broke guy with a shit job, barely out of university.

Today, if the pandemic was over and fans were allowed back and stadiums were at full capacity, that same guy would be doing something else. Yet somehow MLB sees this as less of a problem than figuring out how to wring every last short-term penny out of the sport. It’s not great!