On the high point of the Jays' season so far, the brilliant Alejandro Kirk, thinking about long-term payroll re: Ray and Semien extensions, Hall of Fame talk, the week ahead, and more!
The wins are great. I'm not going to argue with winning. Our reliance on home runs and lack of RISP is still troubling though. Jays are the #1 team in the majors in HR/PA. Yes, we can smash. But the Clutch metric explains a lot of the reason why the team has less wins than expected all season. We often don't hit when it counts most. Mariners are #1 in Clutch. Depending on where you consult the Jays are last or 2nd last to the Orioles. It was nice to see some small ball scoring runs in these last couple of games and I hope it continues. Last night's game should have been a blowout with the Yanks giving up 11 walks. Would love to see some scoring with RISP tonight to consolidate the sweep!
Clutch doesn't necessarily measure a skill, it's more a description of what happened. The Mariners have happened to benefit from more "clutch" plays this season. They are not necessarily a more clutch team that can continue on repeating their clutchiness. There has been a lot of research over the years into whether clutch players even really exist, and there has never really been a sort of smoking gun to say that they do. Yes, teams (the Jays, for example) will talk about guys with a low pulse who can slow the game down, so I definitely wouldn't say there's nothing to it, but however much it's there is very likely not producing wild swings in wins and losses. So this stuff isn't a worry. A team with great hitters that hit home runs is the one you want, not a Mariners team that has scored 110 fewer runs than the Jays this season.
Admittedly I was looking for an affirming statistic more than relying on this particular metric. Oddly enough Team RISP is a hard stat to find listed anywhere. I'm more concerned with our recent struggles going from first to worst in RISP. We're still almost entirely relying upon home runs to win games. But yes, I think the Jays are a far better team than the Mariners. It'd be nice if that gets affirmed by us winning more games than them through the rest of the season. So far their luck has been remarkably durable.
The crazy thing is that we might pull off a wildcard and then be knocked out in one game. Months of excitement down the drain. They need to make it best out of 3.
Who would have thought these two deals would pan out like this? At the time, I was mostly just upset they didn't get Brantley and Odorizzi (hilarious in retrospect). I agree - I think it's hard to say if Shapiro/Atkins will be willing to lose so much flexibility this quickly by signing them both. Presumably you can't keep Semien & Ray AND Berrios, Teo, Vlad and Bo. I guess they'll have to really do some major long term payroll planning this offseason. Who do you leave out? I kind of wonder if they will prioritize Ray over Semien since they have more young bats coming up than arms.
I've been wondering about that. How much money is post-season play worth? Every cent of post season profit made this year can clearly be stuffed into a drawer labelled 'money we wouldn't have if not for Ray and Semien' -- so you can arguably spend up to that amount without blinking. But how much is it?
The wins are great. I'm not going to argue with winning. Our reliance on home runs and lack of RISP is still troubling though. Jays are the #1 team in the majors in HR/PA. Yes, we can smash. But the Clutch metric explains a lot of the reason why the team has less wins than expected all season. We often don't hit when it counts most. Mariners are #1 in Clutch. Depending on where you consult the Jays are last or 2nd last to the Orioles. It was nice to see some small ball scoring runs in these last couple of games and I hope it continues. Last night's game should have been a blowout with the Yanks giving up 11 walks. Would love to see some scoring with RISP tonight to consolidate the sweep!
Clutch doesn't necessarily measure a skill, it's more a description of what happened. The Mariners have happened to benefit from more "clutch" plays this season. They are not necessarily a more clutch team that can continue on repeating their clutchiness. There has been a lot of research over the years into whether clutch players even really exist, and there has never really been a sort of smoking gun to say that they do. Yes, teams (the Jays, for example) will talk about guys with a low pulse who can slow the game down, so I definitely wouldn't say there's nothing to it, but however much it's there is very likely not producing wild swings in wins and losses. So this stuff isn't a worry. A team with great hitters that hit home runs is the one you want, not a Mariners team that has scored 110 fewer runs than the Jays this season.
Admittedly I was looking for an affirming statistic more than relying on this particular metric. Oddly enough Team RISP is a hard stat to find listed anywhere. I'm more concerned with our recent struggles going from first to worst in RISP. We're still almost entirely relying upon home runs to win games. But yes, I think the Jays are a far better team than the Mariners. It'd be nice if that gets affirmed by us winning more games than them through the rest of the season. So far their luck has been remarkably durable.
When's the last time we swept the Yankees? 2016? https://www.mlb.com/news/blue-jays-sweep-yankees-with-shutout-c181565392 ? (and that a 3 not 4 game sweep)
The crazy thing is that we might pull off a wildcard and then be knocked out in one game. Months of excitement down the drain. They need to make it best out of 3.
Who would have thought these two deals would pan out like this? At the time, I was mostly just upset they didn't get Brantley and Odorizzi (hilarious in retrospect). I agree - I think it's hard to say if Shapiro/Atkins will be willing to lose so much flexibility this quickly by signing them both. Presumably you can't keep Semien & Ray AND Berrios, Teo, Vlad and Bo. I guess they'll have to really do some major long term payroll planning this offseason. Who do you leave out? I kind of wonder if they will prioritize Ray over Semien since they have more young bats coming up than arms.
I've been wondering about that. How much money is post-season play worth? Every cent of post season profit made this year can clearly be stuffed into a drawer labelled 'money we wouldn't have if not for Ray and Semien' -- so you can arguably spend up to that amount without blinking. But how much is it?