Stoeten answers Griffin's mailbag: Biggio, Pearson, weak links, the Expos, and more!
Griffbag! Griffbag! Griffbag!
This year’s edition of the World Baseball Classic has taken centre stage among baseball fans this week, as teams like the Blue Jays continue to relatively quietly go about their spring business in various locales of Florida and Arizona. I’m pretty sure I do a much better job most years of feigning my way through breathless reports on the ups and downs of the Jays’ Grapefruit League schedule, but even though I sit down most days and watch the game if it’s on, fire off a bunch of dumb tweets, and think about what I might write, there just hasn’t been anything terribly compelling going on just yet.
With the beginning of a regular season grind of six-plus months on the horizon, I’m not especially bothered by this, but I do feel like I ought to be doing something.
Enter Griff. Thank god for Griff!
The longtime Blue Jays, Expos, and Toronto Star man is, of course, back in the writing game over at Griff’s The Pitch, and — more to our purposes — back in the mailbag-answering game. Edition number two of his mailbag went up late last week and, as is tradition, I’ve now taken it upon myself to hijack it.
A new Griff bag! An actual post! Lets dive in!
As always, I have not read any of Griff’s answers…
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Q-Hey Rich Stoet,
Every season, there are some Blue Jays disappointments, but there are also a few pleasant surprises. Last season I would consider (Cavan) Biggio’s year a disappointment considering the fans’ expectations. But we also saw (Santiago) Espinal go from role player to an All-Star. Who or what are a few areas of the team you think could be a pleasant surprise for Jays fans this coming season.
Brennan, Thornhill
Thanks for the question, Brennan! I actually think that Biggio is a guy who might be a pleasant surprise this year, if only because the expectations for him are going to be much more appropriate. I also wonder if the banning of the shift could theoretically give him some extra juice, though we probably shouldn’t get too carried away on that.1
The other side of that coin may be Whit Merrifield, who Jays fans saw put up a 119 wRC+ post-trade. That hot stretch matched his career best mark from back in 2018, but for the season as a whole it only took him up to 88. Favourable matchups and a playing in a more hitter-friendly home park than Kansas City this could help stem some of the years-long decline in his numbers, but anybody expecting him to be close to the guy he was in September is likely going to be disappointed. And Espinal, who rode a 167 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers to that unlikely All-Star appearance last year, but then fell back to 66 in the second half, will probably disappoint too. That is, at least, if expectations aren't kept in check.
And that’s sort of the thing here. Expectations are difficult to gauge, which makes this question tricky when looking at other parts of the roster. Do fans expect Bo Bichette to be the guy who woke up sitting on a 103 wRC+ on August 21st, or the guy who exploded to life over the next six weeks and completely changed what his season looked like? I think he'll have a better, more consistent year, but I don’t know if that would qualify as a pleasant surprise.
Matt Chapman? I think a six-win year is very within the realm of possibility — all he has to do is hit like he did over the 2022 season's final four months (131 wRC+) while putting up the kinds of defensive numbers he did in 2021 — though I think expecting that kind of year will likely result in disappointment.
Daulton Varsho hit 27 bombs last year and has room for improvement against left-handed pitching, but my sense is that fans are probably trying not to think too much about how their club's major acquisition is coming off a year with a 106 wRC+. Even if he takes a step forward from that paltry mark, it may not be enough to ward off a sense of disappointment.
I do think the bullpen could be a pleasant surprise, despite that unit always seeming to be one of concern. I say that not just because of the addition of Erik Swanson, or velocity gains for Yimi Garcia in his first appearance at the WBC…
…but because I think there’s some genuinely interesting depth there. The Jays gave 131 innings in 2022 to Trevor Richards, Julian Merryweather, and Trent Thornton — plus a smattering more to the Sergio Romos, Anthony Bandas, and Matt Gages of the world.
There's always going to be churn through a bunch of lesser lights in the bullpen, but with Pop, Pearson, Zulueta, Danner, Juenger, Adrian Hernández, Junior and Julian Fernández, plus Chad Green and possibly Tiedemann showing up later in the year, there are a lot of potential hot hands to ride — more than in any season in recent memory, I’d say. I expect things back there to fall into place quite well. Or at least better than we’re used to.
Q-Hey Griff Stoet,
Happy to have your baseball insights again now that you are back on the writing side of the game. Was wondering what you think the biggest obstacle for the Jays will be this year. How would you propose they overcome it?
John S, Ajax
Not to be too glib about it, but I think the Jays’ biggest obstacle will be winning in the playoffs and the way I’d suggest they overcome it is by not losing. Or, dear god, at least not completely embarrassing themselves.
More seriously, and to your point, though, obviously there are a number of ways that a season can come apart at the seams. Health is obviously major for any team, but the Jays particularly lack starting pitching depth and would be in tough if anyone at the top of their rotation were to miss an extended length of time.
They don’t exactly have the greatest outfield depth, either. Some of their infielders can fill in there from time to time, but in the event of an (inevitable?) injury to George Springer or Kevin Kiermaier, we’re probably going to have to see some Nathan Lukes and Otto López. Not ideal! And the situation in the outfield could become especially dire if, at the same time, Varsho takes any sort of step backwards at the plate.
Health is a concern behind the plate, too. Danny Jansen has landed on the IL two times in each of the last two seasons, and Alejandro Kirk spent time on the 60-day IL in 2021, and was clearly wearing down in the second half of 2022.
The fact that Varsho can catch would mitigate that last concern, but he oddly seems to only be considered an emergency option at this stage, which means we could end up seeing quite a bit more of Rob Brantly than I think anybody would prefer.
Let’s not overlook the schedule as a factor, either.
Because the Jays wanted to be extra sure that their renovated outfield was completed in time for the home opener, the schedule-makers have them starting the season on a daunting 10-game/11-day road trip to St. Louis, Kansas City, and then way out west to Anaheim. An off-day followed by three games with the Tigers will give them a bit of a mid-April respite, but after that they host the Rays for three before heading off to Houston for three, then three more with the Yankees. Yikes.
How do they overcome any of these obstacles? By staying healthy, finding some genuine help from the farm, and/or having other guys step up.
Fortunately, I think there’s enough depth to get them through a normal amount of injuries, especially if their young superstars stay healthy and a couple of secondary guys really click. Frankly, I think it’s probably better depth than they’ve had in either of the last two years — which were obviously pretty successful ones overall. But, outside of some bullpen arms and maybe Barger, it’s not like Buffalo has a ton of guys ready to start banging down the door.2
Q-Realistically, can Nate Pearson, at age 26, finally command the strike zone, stay healthy, and become a fraction of the pitcher the Jays expected him to become? I’m getting tired of the hype, especially since his flawless performance in the DR.
Thanks
Hebsy, Toronto
Good news! You’ve survived the hype. There is not and will not be any more hype — not really. It can no longer hurt you.
Was there even hype after Pearson pitched 12 good innings in a league where the best regular hitter on the best team was Ronnie Mauricio, a 21-year-old Mets prospect who slashed .259/.296/.472 in the Double-A Eastern League in 2022? Because there really shouldn’t have been.
Pearson is what he is: a big right-hander with a great fastball who — exactly as you say — can’t stay healthy or seem to find the zone with enough regularity to be the kind of bullpen weapon yet that he still has all the potential in the world to become.
Maybe later in his career he could even be one of those guys who eventually gets another chance to start — a year or two of actually building up some innings could make it an intriguing idea again, though let’s not get ahead of ourselves. For now the bullpen is his home and, as long as he stays healthy, he’s going to continue to get all kinds of runway to try to put it together there.
Sorry if this offends!
With two option years left, Big Nate’s essentially got until spring 2025 to establish himself as a major leaguer, whether it’s here or ultimately elsewhere. He could end up another Julian Merryweather, sure, but if instead he becomes a successful reliever he would hardly be the first guy to have taken that kind of a career path. At this point any success he has is basically found money.
Can he finally become an effective big leaguer this year? Absolutely. Will he? Your guess is as good as mine, but I’m certainly not betting against that arm.
Q-Would the return of the Expos to Montreal be a good or a bad thing for the Blue Jays and do you think this is a real possibility at this point?
Grant C. Brockville
I think the return of the Expos would be an incredible thing for Canadian baseball, and having such a rivalry would only push both teams to spend more to be the best versions of themselves possible — something that has become less of a worry for Blue Jays fans these last couple of years, though the fear of Rogers suddenly tightening the purse strings at some point still lurks in the back of many minds.
As for whether it would be good for the Blue Jays, I think the fact that the team voted “Yes” on contracting the Expos in 2002 tells us everything we need to know. Things have changed in 20 years, sure, but all of the Jays’ “playing for a country” marketing is another tell. They probably wouldn’t be as loud about it now as they were with that disgraceful vote, but there’s little chance they would actually view it as a positive to have to share the Canadian market.
“When I raised my hand at the meeting, I said to my colleagues that I wasn't doing it out of pride,” said then-Jays president and CEO Paul Godfrey at the time. “I know if it wasn't for the success of the Expos in those early years there would not be major-league baseball in Toronto. That wasn't an emotional or a baseball vote. It was a business decision.”
Is it realistic that the Expos might return? I’ve wavered on this question for years, and at the moment I’m probably more pessimistic than usual.
The idea of Montreal and Tampa sharing the Rays was stupid, and always seemed pretty obviously a cynical plan to get a better stadium deal in St. Pete, but it at least offered a chance to capture the team outright somewhere down the line. With that dream now all but gone, what are Montreal’s realistic options?
If they weren’t already there, plenty of fast-growing American cities seem to be quickly moving ahead of them on the list for expansion or relocation. Las Vegas, Nashville, Charlotte, Portland, Austin. Even if rumoured moves by the Orioles to Tennessee and the A’s to the desert come to fruition, you could simply replace those two cities on the list with Baltimore and Oakland. Add in border, language, foreign exchange issues, an economy that maybe isn’t quite as booming as it was a few years ago, and the fact that there’s the perception that it’s failed before, and I think they’re fighting an uphill battle at this point, unfortunately.
I’d sure love to be wrong on that though.
Q-Hi Richard Stoeten,
Long-time fan! My question is, now that the Blue Jays have shored up outfield defense and the bullpen. What is a potential area of weakness for the team in the first couple of months in the season?
All the best,
Gustavo, Toronto
If I had to pick just one, I think it would have to be the starting pitching depth. As I mentioned above, the schedule will be pretty unforgiving early on, and while I definitely think that the Jays’ rotation stacks up with just about anybody’s, it gets much harder to say that if literally anything changes. Already they have a major wild card in Kikuchi. Mitch White isn’t a particularly inspiring number six — nor are guys like Zach Thompson, Bowden Francis, or Drew Hutchison, who will likely be the next ones in line at first. Eventually Hyun Jin Ryu, and possibly Ricky Tiedemann or Yosver Zulueta could enter the picture, but early on things look a bit thin. If the starters aren’t fully healthy out of the gate it would be a serious problem.
Q-Hi Rich Stoet,
1-If I remember, reports from Expos’ spring training in 1990 centred on which of (Marquis) Grissom or (Larry) Walker would make the team. Wise baseball reporters suggested only one would, or could, with outfield returnees (Dave) Martinez, (Otis) Nixon, and (Tim) Raines around. Both seemingly had extra base hits or multiple hits or steals or fine defense every game and, in the end, both made the team.
2-Addison Barger has been a standout this year and I wonder are the powers that be looking at prospect pedigree, off-season development, roster fit, or actual GF league results when making the roster call? How does this shake out, then or now?
Thanks,
Geoffroh
Well, I can’t speak much to your first question — perhaps you’re confusing me with someone else? HEYO! JOKE I ALREADY USED IN THE LAST GRIFFBAG! — but as for Barger, I think you’re definitely right that he’s looked impressive so far. He’s also working on that pedigree, with FanGraphs ranking him as number two in the Jays’ system this week (as part of what was a fascinating assessment of the team’s top 41 prospects).
However, at the risk of falling into the same trap as those “wise baseball reporters” of 1990, I’d be lying if I said think he’ll go north with the club. For one thing, it’s very hard to hit your way onto a ballclub in spring training these days, given how varying the level of competition is. For another, I don’t know that his skillset is the right fit for the Blue Jays’ roster at this very moment.
That’s not to say that I don’t think he can be a real contributor at some point in 2023 — I think he almost has to be given some real run, considering that Matt Chapman is slated to be a free agent next winter, and Barger is probably the only internal candidate with a chance to be ready for a full-time job there in 2024 who wouldn’t be viewed as just a stopgap. But he hits from the left side, and I continue to believe that the final position player on the roster should probably hit from the right.
You’re not going to platoon or pinch hit for Bichette, Chapman, Guerrero, or Springer, and Cavan Biggio is already there mostly as a left-handed platoon-mate for whichever of Whit Merrifield or Santiago Espinal is at second base. There just aren’t going to be the same number of opportunities for another lefty bench bat as there would be a right-handed one. Someone better than Merrifield or Espinal would come in very handy in late-and-close situations where Belt, Kiermaier, or Varsho could be exposed to a tough lefty.
If Biggio falters or someone gets hurt the equation changes, and that to me seems the more likely way for Barger to end up on the roster.
That said, it’s notable that he wasn’t among the first cuts announced by the Jays earlier this week — along with other 26th man candidates Nathan Lukes and Otto López. It’s not impossible he could win the spot, I’m just not expecting it yet.
Q-Hey Griff Stoet,
Team Canada has never advanced beyond the first round of the WBC in four previous attempts. What do you think of their chances to advance past the first round this year, in Phoenix.
Jon B. Calgary
Well, obviously I have the benefit of seeing all but the last game of the first round here, but I think they’ve got a shot. It’s going to be tough against Mexico on Wednesday, particularly with Freddie Freeman likely out of the lineup — which is the case as of the time that I’m writing this on Tuesday night. Mexico has got some real big league talent on its roster, and José Urquidy will be no slouch on the mound, but strange things can happen in this tournament. It should be must-watch stuff, even if the 3 PM ET start time is less than ideal for most. Full credit to Ernie Whitt’s team, who have already done a great job of making Wednesday’s tilt as meaningful as possible.
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Dan Szymborski points out in a recent post for FanGraphs that from 2015 to 2022, "all left-handed hitters combined for a .204 BABIP when pulling grounders and no shift was in effect.” Biggio's BABIP on pulled grounders for his career is .145, resulting in 23 hits on just 159 such balls in play. Bump his BABIP on those up to .204 and he'd have nine additional hits. For his entire career.
I’m not sure that’s a realistic expectation, so I suppose my actual point is: please just stay healthy everyone!