Stray Thoughts - Bo Trade Clause?
On aggressive pursuits, Bo Bichette, Jon Morosi, Alek Manoah, Bowden Francis, stadium renovations, All-Star rejection, Gibby!, Donaldson, Bautista, Yamamoto, Jansen, Gausman, and so much more!
On Monday morning, Sportsnet's Ben Nicholson-Smith tweeted that the Jays are “showing real interest in some big names, including top free agent pitchers per sources.” He added that bats are still the “Jays' priority, but they're keeping possibilities open. Active in the trade market, too.”
Later that day, insider Robert Murray of FanSided similarly explained on his podcast that the Jays “have been aggressive on both the trade and the free agent markets.”
He continued (not exactly verbatim):
“I think that is a team that, if the right opportunity presents itself, I think they could definitely make a splash. I don't know if it's going to look like (Shohei) Ohtani, I don't know if it's going to look like one of the top free agent starters. I don't know necessarily what it will be, but I think they have the opportunity to be aggressive. And they should be a team that we do not forget about this winter. I think there's a shot that they make some noise, and I'm really curious to see what that noise looks like. But that's been the talk of some rival executives in recent days and weeks—is that the Blue Jays could end up being the team to watch here, for sure.”
MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson also joined the party, telling us that “Toronto’s front office is already aggressively exploring the trade market, positioning itself to move quickly if the thin free-agent market doesn’t provide every answer.”
As Keegan notes, the free agent market for bats drops off quite precipitously behind Ohtani and Cody Bellinger, so it makes sense that a team looking to make a real splash might have to get creative with trades. That’s especially so if, as appears to be the case, there just aren’t very many teams out there already looking to punt on 2024 and auction off big MLB talent for a bounty of prospects.
But does that explain the whispering we’ve heard lately about players like Alek Manoah, or even Bo Bichette, potentially being on the block? Are we in for a winter of lateral-ish moves to better balance the roster between pitching and hitting, short-term and long-term?
Maybe! But let’s think about this a little more closely, shall we? And then also go over a whole bunch of other stuff that’s being talked about out there. Here’s a fresh batch of Stray Thoughts…
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Bolololosi
Back on Monday some weird suburban reactionary who hosts a Chicago baseball podcast somewhat cryptically wondered out loud about Bo Bichette potentially playing for the Cubs. Then, when it was pointed out that Chicago already has Dansby Swanson at shortstop, he even more cryptically tweeted out a picture of third base.
On Tuesday night the notion that this could actually be a real thing gained a bit of theoretical traction. Locked On Cubs podcast host Matt Cozzi put it in plain terms, tweeting: “I'm hearing the Cubs have talked to the Blue Jays about Bo Bichette, who would play 3B for the Cubs.”
If the idea of this actually happening seems laughably implausible that’s only because it very much is. But that isn’t to say that I necessarily doubt that a conversation may have happened here.
We see in this market all the time that folks with smaller accounts can get ahold of inside information, so I won’t discount it just for that.
We’re clearly also hearing about the Jays looking to make a big splash somehow. And, as we’ve established, we know that the free agent market may not provide that answer for them. We’ve also seen the Blue Jays, over and over through the years, aggressively check in on anything and everything that might be possible at this time of year. Why wouldn’t they explore something? That’s their job!
So go nuts, Cubs fans. Dream big!
Just maybe don’t get too worked up about this one.
There is one very clear reason why the Jays will likely be listening at least somewhat seriously to offers on Bo this winter, and that’s the fact that he’s due to become a free agent after the 2025 season. The two sides have yet to work out a contract extension, and—as I pointed out in my previous batch of Stray Thoughts—the fact that the Jays reportedly made strong pushes for free agent shortstops Xander Bogaerts and Corey Seager in the last two winters means it’s possible that the club doesn’t think it’s going to happen. Or that they think it’s going to take a market rate offer to keep Bo anyway, and so explored options that would have given them more immediate cost certainty—and possibly players they may simply like better, or think will age better.
However, for obvious reasons, the Jays aren’t hitting the reset button just yet. Quite the opposite, according to literally everything anyone is saying about their plans. One of the best rotations in the sport in 2023 remains intact for next season. They have already put together an outstanding bullpen. Some extra firepower on the offensive side of the ball is really all it will take to give them the makings of a very scary team in 2024.
They’re not about to subtract from that. Contrary to what Cubs fans want to believe, if the Jays were actually serious about moving Bo, they’d be doing so to help their 2024 roster as much as they can. Certainly not to start dismantling it.
That would entail getting back a ton of major league talent that’s ready to help right now. And that means it’s going to be incredibly hard for a contender to offer something that would genuinely pique the Jays’ interest. (Sorry, Dodgers fans, but Miguel Rojas and a bunch of (admittedly decent) prospects isn’t going to nearly cut it. LOL.)
Looking at the Cubs’ roster, I simply don’t see it. The sorts of players the Jays would need to get back—Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki are the names that leap out at me—are exactly the ones that I’m sure these fans and the Cubs would want to hang on to.
Maybe there’s a chance to get creative and find some multi-player—or multi-team—blockbuster that actually helps everyone involved compete in 2024. But unless you absolutely have to, if you’re moving a four-or-five win shortstop it’s going to be a lateral move at best. So, unfortunately for excited Cubs fans, for now this whole idea makes little sense.
“For now.”
It’s undeniable that the Blue Jays may reach a point, sometime between now and the 2025 trade deadline, where they do come to believe that it’s in their best interest to move on from Bo, rather than lose him for nothing as a free agent. It’s unfathomable to me that this front office—which couldn’t even bring itself to move Josh Donaldson heading into a 2018 season everybody knew was going to be non-competitive—would decide to move Bo with two years left before free agency and the team’s competitive window as wide open as it will ever be. But, if the time does come to flip that switch, it will be incredibly useful for the Jays to know how the market values him, and to already have an idea of some of the players they might be able to target in return.
Gauging the market is an entirely common thing. “Due diligence” is a term we hear all the time when it comes to highly improbable rumours. So what are we even doing here?
Well, probably nothing if this little tidbit had stayed confined to the world of Chicago Cubs podcasts. But, alas, the content mill needs to be fed, and here comes MLB Network’s Jon Morosi with his trusty ol’ pitch fork…
The question Morosi poses is so unbelievably simple to answer that one could use it to point out what little sense the rumour actually makes on its face. The “aggressive on big names” Blue Jays are not out there on the trade market intentionally trying to make their team worse and less appealing to their free agent targets—they only do that unintentionally HEYO! At a time when they already need three or four bats, they’re surely not looking to subtract an irreplaceable star shortstop.
But rather than point out that obvious fact, Morosi instead chooses to lend far more credibility to the rumour than it deserves, and will undoubtedly show up on radio stations in Toronto and Chicago in the coming days as a result. It’s a deeply cynical way to leverage the thirst fans across the league have for rumours at this time of year. And while on one hand I suppose I should maybe thank him for giving us all something to talk about while we wait for real transactions, on the other hand I think this kind of thing actually sucks!
Could Alek Ma-Go-ah?
The other big name on the Blue Jays’ roster that has popped up in rumours of late is, of course, Alek Manoah.
“Some rival executives, speaking on condition of anonymity in order to avoid charges of tampering, say the Blue Jays are open to moving right-hander Alek Manoah,” wrote the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal back on Monday. “How open remains to be seen.”
This one is much more interesting to me because there are more reasons why moving Manoah could make sense for the Jays, even if the clock isn’t quite ticking on him the way it is on Bo. They may not be particularly great reasons, but there’s a big difference between moving your ostensible number five starter than there is moving your star shortstop. Especially in a market so pitching-starved that guys like Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson are getting deals north of $10 million.
Now, that may just be the Cardinals being the Cardinals…
…but Lynn, even as a 36-year-old, presents some vague similarities to Manoah. For one thing, he's been quite successful in the recent past, but is coming off a season nearly as poor as Alek’s. Lynn's 5.73 ERA and -0.8 rWAR were buoyed only by a deadline move to a more pitcher-friendly park, with a stronger Dodgers defence behind him than the one he left in Chicago. Meanwhile, Manoah finished with a similar 5.87 ERA and -1.1 rWAR, but in 2022 had a much better season than Lynn (3.99 ERA, 0.7 rWAR) did.
These numbers don’t quite tell the whole story—for example, Manoah’s walk rate more than doubled, from 6.5% to 14.2%, and though Lynn’s did too, it rose to just 8.3%, which is not far above where he’d been during very successful campaigns from 2019-21—so this obviously isn’t an apples-to-apples comparison. And $10 million doesn’t exactly represent a ton of value in big league terms. But if we accept that Manoah is a similar reclamation case, and then consider the upside, the years of cheap control, the number of teams looking to add pitching this winter, among them several looking to maintain or decrease payroll, then I don’t think it’s difficult to see that there could be a lot more value there than many might appreciate.
This could be especially true if there are clubs out there that, like a whole lot of Jays fans, have plenty of faith in Manoah to get back on track. We still know little about whatever was going on with his arm that may have contributed to his awful 2023, but it did feel like we got closer to the truth a couple weeks ago, when Kevin Gausman was asked about his teammate’s tough season during an episode of Foul Territory.
Gausman explained:
To be honest, I think he went through some things in spring. I think he got off to a late start, physically, in spring. You know, his shoulder just wasn't-- You know, listen, he's a guy who pitched almost 200 innings in his first full year as a starting pitcher. I've only got that close one time in my career. I think when you're a 24- or 25-year-old guy you don't necessarily know the impact that that's going to take on your body. And I just think he came in and maybe tried to push it and get ready for opening day a little too early, and I think he just kind of never got to a good spot with his arm, and with his mechanics. And you could tell that.
I don’t think it’s preposterous to believe that being a little more attuned to the limits of his arm—particularly heading into the season, rather than once it gets going—could potentially go a long way toward Manoah getting right. And given his pedigree, there’s probably no shortage of organizations that would love to get ahold of him.
Of course, as everyone is probably screaming by now, the reasons other teams value Manoah are exactly the same reasons the Jays should, too.
Ultimately, that’s probably the way they ought to go with this. They have a rotation spot, they have a pretty good track record of getting pitchers right—though all the Walker-heads out there tend to overlook cases like Julian Merryweather, Nate Pearson, Thomas Hatch, Trent Thornton, and plenty of others—and Manoah has no leverage to force a move away from the club if he’s still sore about last year’s demotions. He’s also shown the ability to be one of the best pitchers in the game.
But I think it’s fair to wonder. About his velocity dip. About why stopped striking guys out after 2021. About the concerns some of the projection systems saw heading into 2022. About what his teammates might think about the way his season ended and his unavailability down the stretch while they were in a playoff fight. About a pitcher who got by on such bravado seemingly losing his confidence. And about what happens if he struggles again in 2024.
Manoah may have, according to Ross Atkins, “earned the right to have a strong leg up” for a rotation spot on opening day. But this won’t necessarily be like last spring, when Yusei Kikuchi—thanks to the $20 million still owed to him at the time—basically had to pitch his way out of the job, with little competition for it after Mitch White got hurt.
This time Manoah is optionable. White, for example, is not. And not only is White back on the 40-man, after having been added earlier in the month, he had a very impressive end of the season in Buffalo. Bowden Francis is another guy who should be in the running to take Manoah’s spot, having pitched very well in both the majors and minors in 2023. Ricky Tiedemann could also eventually be a threat. And, as we’ve read above, the Jays are still looking at bringing in pitchers from outside the organization.
It looks like there could be a genuine competition here, as there should be. And if Francis out-pitches Manoah in the spring, why on earth shouldn’t the job be his? And, frankly, I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility that it happens.
If so, Manoah’s situation suddenly looks quite different. Another trip to the minors would mean another chance for friction between the Jays and his “camp,” and sliding down to sixth on the pitching depth chart would surely do a number on his perceived value.
This is why I don’t think it’s so obvious that moving on from him now would be doing so at its lowest ebb. He doesn’t have to be bad for an entire season to lose a ton of value, he just has to be bad for long enough to tumble down the depth chart.
The reward of potentially getting the 2022 version of him back at some point is probably enough to justify the risk of that happening, but there are at least some things to think about here. I mean, if there isn’t much daylight between the Jays’ internal opinion of Manoah—and his baggage—versus White, Francis, Tiedemann, Wes Parsons, or whoever else, and they feel OK about moving a little pitching depth, maybe the difference between their view of him and the market’s tilts things toward a trade. If there’s interest out there, maybe it should. What’s a sixth or seventh starter if you can get back a genuinely useful bat?
Like anybody else, I don’t want this to be the case. Ideally Manoah bounces back in a Blue Jays uniform and goes on to have a great career here. But I’ve seen fans reflexively say that there couldn’t possibly be sense in moving him, or that it would undoubtedly be a mistake. I’m really not so sure about that.
Stadium Stuff
Phase two of the transformation of Rogers Centre is underway, and the Blue Jays have given us an update on the progress that will take it, in their words, “from a stadium to a ballpark.”
There were a few items sent out in a media kit back on Tuesday, but really, the best way to view the construction’s progress is via the Twitter video sent out by the team. So let’s do that!
A cynic might say something like, “that sure is a lot of concrete!” Or, “doesn’t matter if they don’t find some hitters!” But, good lord, there are more than enough insufferably negative one-note fans out there these days that I will instead choose to appreciate the achievement. It’s going to be transformational, and much, much better in there. You love to see it.
And there will be no better way to show off the Jays’ new modern upgrades to the entire baseball world than by hosting the All-Star Game! Which, unfortunately, they won’t get to do until 2027 at the earliest.
Texas hosts next season, Philadelphia already has the 2026 game, and last week MLB awarded the 2025 event to Atlanta. This is undoubtedly happening to make up for their loss of the 2021 game, which you may recall was pulled after Republican ghouls in Georgia passed restrictive voting laws obviously designed to disenfranchise Black voters. (Legal challenges have watered down the original bill somewhat since then, but don’t let that fool you into thinking MLB actually cares, or ever did. The decision to return to the game Truist Park is far more likely just because it’s simply no longer the political hot potato it once was.)
That will make it 36 years, at minimum, between All-Star games for the Jays—quite a feat in a 30-team league! It will also mean that whatever sort of financial windfall they may have been hoping for from it will have to wait, I suppose.
Hey, and speaking of revenue, the team announced this week that they won't be hauling in a ton of it on select 500 Level tickets to weekday games in April, May, and June. This isn’t a new concept—last year’s Leadoff Pack (which appears to have been discontinued) provided cheap seats to similarly less desirable games—but the execution is. The club's new Starting 9 offer is a Black Friday deal, for some reason, allowing fans to purchase single game tickets down the baselines in the upper bowl for just $9, starting at 10 AM on Friday.
Tickets that are actually affordable is a good thing! Plus, this is a great opportunity for anybody who ever wanted to watch a game from behind a giant light stanchion to get to live their dream, and will potentially spur a few extra sales for games that aren't normally well attended. Everybody wins.
Of course, it doesn't matter if they don't find some hitters.
Gibby the Be…nch coach!
It was reported on Wednesday that former Jays manager John Gibbons is getting set to be back in MLB in 2024, having been appointed as the new bench coach for the New York Mets. And while I may not know precisely what a bench coach does, or whether Gibby is a better choice than anybody else, I do know that Major League Baseball is better off with John Gibbons in it. Congrats, you old so-and-so!
Speaking of the good old days and, as we were previously, our old fiend Josh Donaldson, the former star third baseman is a free agent this winter, and he’s noticed that the Blue Jays have a hole at that exact position. According to an interview with Josh Wegman of theScore, the 2015 AL MVP is “definitely looking forward to seeing if they reach out.”
I know what you’re thinking: “Original baseball content from theScore? I’m surprised they didn’t think of that sooner.”
You’re probably also thinking: “No.” “Hell no.” And, “Didn’t he get released by the Yankees in August? Isn't he about to be 38-years-old? And isn't he coming off a second straight below-average season at the plate, this one being all the way down at 78 wRC+?”
Well, you’d be right. And you’d also be right to say that this idea makes even less sense than the Joey Votto stuff we’ve been hearing all winter (😔). But the interview is good and worth a read! Donaldson clearly has fond memories of his time in Toronto, and maintains a relationship with the city because his wife is from here. Dr. Pepper sales have never been the same since he left.
On a better “good old days” note, it was announced this week that José Bautista’s name will appear on the Hall of Fame ballot for the first time this winter. And also possibly the last time. We’ll see when the results are announced in January, but it’s certainly quite possible that José—because he was such a late bloomer, and was finished as a useful player after his age-35 season—won’t garner the 5% of votes required to remain on the ballot.
People who like to “think” about the “Hall of Fame” will tell you that he doesn’t have much of a case here, but I can actually make one quite easily. Point one: the Hall of Fame is stupid anyway, so just put him in. He rules. Point two: similarly bat-first, strong-armed right fielder Harold Baines (38.8 rWAR, 384 HR, 121 OPS+ in 9,908 AB) is in, so José Bautista (36.7 rWAR, 344 HR, 124 OPS+ in a mere 6,051 AB) should obviously also be in. Disagree? See point one.
Phi Slama Yama
Returning to the present, NPB star Yoshinobu Yamamoto—whose highest ERA in the last three seasons was a microscopic 1.68—was officially posted by the Orix Buffaloes this week. MLB teams will have until January 4th to arrange to unload a dump truck full of cash in front his house.
Way back during the GM meetings, Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi reported that the Jays had “engaged” on MLB’s next great Japanese ace. But even more interestingly, on Wednesday, Yahoo Japan reported that Yamamoto’s agent spoke to the media, revealing—though some of the meaning of what was said may have been lost in translation—that his client doesn’t have a preference for geography, but does want to play with other Japanese players.
The Jays, with Yusei Kikuchi, count themselves among the few MLB teams who can claim that—an edge they could certainly add to if they managed to go out and sign Shohei Ohtani, which I think we can all agree they absolutely should.
But there’s another another potential edge here, and it’s that Yamamoto’s agent is Joel Wolfe.
If that name rings a bell it may be because Wolfe is also Giancarlo Stanton’s agent, which was hilariously pointed out after Yankees GM Brian Cashman bizarrely trashed his own player at the GM Meetings earlier in the month. But it may also be because Wolfe was Kodai Senga’s agent, and we learned a bit about him last winter—including the fact that he and Ross Atkins supposedly have a “strong relationship,” that he was Marcus Semien’s agent when he signed with the Jays, and that he’s a Canadian and an alumni of Bishop’s University.
Those connections didn’t help the Jays land Senga, obviously. And their roster construction makes a $250 million contract with another pitcher seem an unlikely fit. But I, for one, will dare to dream about this. Extend Kikuchi! Sign all the Japanese guys available! If we can’t dream now, when?
If Jano Jano
Speaking of the Blue Jays’ pitching staff, it remains unclear who they’ll be throwing to half the time in 2025, as Danny Jansen is now less than a year away from being a free agent. He spoke with TSN’s Scott Mitchell during a recently released podcast, and didn’t exactly seem optimistic about getting an extension done, explaining that “both parties agreed to carry on and see what happens.”
That’s pretty definitive-sounding. But I think it’s worth noting that in the clip—which you can see on Twitter via the link above (where you can also find links to the full show)—Jansen was still in the cast that was placed on his arm following season-ending finger surgery in early September. According to Shi David, he was out of the cast and into a splint by September 21st. Quite a bit of time has passed.
That said, Jansen going to be a tough player to put a value on, because he’s had such trouble staying healthy. Still, my hope is that maybe some progress has been made over the last couple months, or will be soon. I’m not quite as confident that Gabriel Moreno is already a star as those who watched a handful of Diamondbacks playoff games are, but it certainly would be odd—to put it politely—to be left with only Alejandro Kirk just two years after having such an amazing surplus behind the plate. There should be a way to keep Danny Bats here for the long-term.
Quickly…
• Sticking with Jansen, on the other hand, maybe the Jays should include him in their offer to San Diego for Juan Soto. Sportsnet’s Chris Black would like you to know that the Padres could really use a catcher. (Chris’s recent lengthy thread on the Jays’ baserunning woes is well worth your time as well.)
• One guy on the trade market that the Jays won’t be getting, but who they had been linked to earlier in the month, is slugging third baseman Eugenio Suárez, who was traded by the Mariners on Wednesday to those very same Diamondbacks. The 32-year-old played in all 162 games this year, but only hit seven more home runs (22) than he did in the 60-game 2020 season (15). He's a bit of a modern three-true-outcomes guy, though probably doesn't walk enough to really deserve the moniker. It's power and not a whole lot else. The Jays could have used some of that, even if his 102 wRC+ in 2023 hardly leaps off the page. In a typical year he's more of a 30 homer guy, and with one year plus a club option remaining on his contract, he seems like he should have brought back more than a backup catcher (Seby Zavala) and a hard-throwing project (Carlos Vargas). DiPoto gonna DiPoto.
• Mariners fans are not pleased with this one. And the Diamondbacks are, of course, still not as good as everyone who only actually saw them in the playoffs thinks they are.
• Also off the market: legendary Blue Jays shortstop Paul DeJong. He’ll be joining the Chicago Washed Sox.
• A third baseman and a shortstop may now be spoken for, but recently there have been a few notable additions to the market, as my Blue Jays Happy Hour cohost Nick Ashbourne points out in his latest for Sportsnet. In it, he picks out some intriguing names among the 63 players who were non-tendered by their clubs at the end of last week, including injured former Brewers All-Star RHP Brandon Woodruff. A team with the Jays’ financial resources could find a way to add a high upside arm like Woodruff’s on a creative, Chad Green-like deal—and probably should!
• Elsewhere at Sportsnet, Shi Davidi has an in-depth chat with prospect Damiano Palmegiani, who details the hitting process that propelled him to a breakout 2023 season that recently ended with an Arizona Fall League championship.
• Over at FanGraphs, the Jays had their number called early with respect to getting their 2024 ZiPS projections revealed, and… look… Wally Joyner had a really nice career, OK???
• Some great stuff from my fellow Blue Jays Substackers, as D.M. Fox checked in last week with a look back at the Jays’ 2023 draft class, and had a great interview with Ashley Stephenson, who just finished her debut season as a coach with the Vancouver Canadians. Meanwhile, at Griff’s First Pitch, Richard Griffin wonders if it’s time for MLB to evolve beyond the five-man rotation—and thinks the Jays could be at the forefront of that.
• Interesting stuff from Mike Petriello, who writes at MLB.com about the new Statcast metric that looks at how well pitchers keep the running game in check. KEVIN GAUSMAN DO NOT LOOK AT THIS LEADERBOARD.
• Back to theScore we go for a great one from Travis Sawchik, who looks at the changing sports TV landscape here in North America, and how—as the regional sports network model continues to implode—teams and leagues are potentially going to be affected.
• Lastly, earlier in the week—before the Bichette rumours started flying—I had a great chat with my pal Matt Robinson of Tall Can Audio about all things Blue Jays.
Give Matt a follow on Twitter, and have a listen! You can do so in any number of ways, including at his site, or on all the usual podcasts apps, like Spotify…
…as well as Apple Podcasts, Google, etc.
Oh, and programming note: On the show you’ll hear me mention that Nick and I were going to be recording a BJHH episode this week, but I was mistaken. Nick and I did have a chat scheduled, but it was only to talk about business. We’ll be back on an as-needed basis as the winter progresses—mostly when actual things happen, as opposed to just rumours.
Also, since we’re here, if you own or represent a business or multi-national brewing conglomerate that might be interested in advertising on a plucky Blue Jays podcast for grown-ups in 2024, feel free to get in touch!
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Count me as one of the fans who think Manoa is probably more valuable in a trade than on the roster.
Thanks for this roundup, Stoeten.
What's going on with the Ben Wagner drama? What a pathetic move by Rogers. Jerk the guy around for 6 years, don't give him any ex-MLB pros in the booth, don't allow him to travel with the team, then can him. Nice.
I used to sync up the radio broadcast with the TV broadcast because I like the flow better, until our good friend Dan Schulman hit the scene. Stop deliberately ruining the radio experience, I'm sick of it.