Stray Thoughts... - Deadlines, the coaching carousel, Ohtani, Chapman, and more!

Things are happening! Were happening! Will be happening! The possibilities are endless here as MLB’s offseason really begins to get into gear. This week we saw coaching moves, rumours flying left and right, and a couple of roster deadlines that brought us some minor Blue Jays transactions.

So, before things really start heating up, let’s talk about it! Here is a fresh batch of offseason stray thoughts…

---

---

⚾⚾⚾ This site is the only way that I make a living, but rather than put my work behind a paywall, my goal is for everything I write to be free for anyone to read. This means I need your help. Become a paid subscriber and not only will you get access to post in the comments section, meaning you’ll be able to ask a question next time I do a mail bag, you’ll be helping me keep my work free for everyone else. Win-win!

It only takes a couple clicks to upgrade—or to contribute again if at some point along the way your credit card expired!—and if you’re able to, it would be incredibly appreciated. ⚾⚾⚾

---

---

Coaching carousel

On Wednesday the Milwaukee Brewers officially announced the end of their managerial search, electing to promote bench coach Pat Murphy into Craig Counsell's old role after last week the former manager surprisingly bolted for a wealthier slice of the Lake Michigan shoreline and signed with the Chicago Cubs. At the time of this writing, it leaves only the San Diego Padres with a managerial vacancy, and the two clear favourites there are apparently former Angels manager—and ex-Padre—Phil Nevin, and former Cardinals skipper Mike Shildt.

In other words, Blue Jays bench coach Don Mattingly doesn't appear to be going anywhere—much, I’m sure, to the chagrin of the vast number of fan fiction writers out there who have convinced themselves that, despite knowing virtually nothing about him or his job, Mattingly has been some kind of a massive problem. (“WELL THEY COULD HIT BEFORE HE GOT HERE!”)

This and the fact that former Cleveland and Toronto bench coach DeMarlo Hale has been hired as an “associate manager”—that title being the innocuous subject of another deeply embarrassing online freak out—and a few other, smaller moves, means that the Jays’ 2024 coaching staff has largely taken shape. And, contrary to popular belief, it’s really quite a bit different than last year’s.

Some thoughts…

John Schneider, manager: A man sees an antique clock that isn’t quite keeping perfect time. He flips it around, opens up the back, and immediately sets eyes on the biggest, most visible cog in a galaxy of interconnected gears, springs, dials, and wheels. “Aha!” he yelps. “That big one must be the reason this damned thing is off.”

The Blue Jays’ bench boss, of course, will return to his post in 2024. And why wouldn’t he? Everyone who matters seems to have moved past Ross Atkins’ mealy-mouthed end-of-season answers about the (barely consequential) Berríos decision—including Atkins himself, who at the GM meetings took accountability for the way the season ended in a clearer way and to a greater degree than he did back in October. Schneider even managed to pick up a third-place vote for AL Manager of the Year, which was announced on Tuesday night.

That’s hardly a ringing endorsement, and I can’t exactly say I’m surprised that the vote came from a member of the BBWAA who isn’t based in Toronto. But the idea that Schneider is obviously out of his depth, or materially different than any other manager out there, is clearly another fantasy—one borne out of genuine and perfectly valid frustration, but a fantasy nonetheless.

Don Mattingly, bench coach and offensive coordinator: As commenter James T. said when I wrote last week about the weird reaction Mattingly gets from Jays fans online—and some of the unremarkable quotes, read in bad faith, that may have sparked much of it—“he's called Donny Baseball for a reason.”

A nickname alone isn’t enough to make someone unassailable, obviously. But this is a smart baseball lifer who has real stature in the game. The fact that the Brewers were interested is a clear sign of that. So, too, is the fact that, as Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi reported this week, Mattingly “was fully involved” in the Jays’ decision to hire DeMarlo Hale.

Good!

Meanwhile, as the club’s new “offensive coordinator,” Mattingly has, according to Shi, been “put in charge of game-planning for opposing pitchers.”

The Jays’ shifting titles make it difficult to say for sure, but to me this feels like something that might have fallen under the purview of the club’s “hitting strategist” last season. Dave Hudgens, who was once the bench coach, and was the Astros' hitting coach before that, was in said role, but will be elsewhere going forward. He may still hold the title—we don’t know what his title is yet—but his duties will be different in 2024. Ross Atkins told reporters at the GM meetings, per Ben Nicholson-Smith, that Hudgens now “will work out of the Jays' player development complex in Florida in a hybrid role identifying hitters to acquire and mentoring Jays' young hitting coaches.”

If this isn't what “put out to pasture” looks like, perhaps I don't understand the phrase. And here's the thing: if Mattingly is taking over game-planning, and Hudgens is in Dunedin, and Guillermo Martinez and Hunter Mense are remaining in their roles, doesn't it stand to reason that it was Hudgens—as the “hitting strategist”—who was previously in charge of this? And didn't game-planning feel like this was a real problem—maybe the problem—this past year?

The Jays were 29th in first-inning runs scored. In all other innings combined they ranked 12th. Now, 12th obviously isn't good enough. And I know that game-planning is about far more than the first inning, and that fans believing theirs is the only team that gets routinely carved by unheralded slop-throwers is hardly unique to the 2023 Blue Jays. But I think the lack of first inning runs says at least something about the quality of the club’s advance scouting information and how well it was being put to use. A change here, if it isn’t merely cosmetic, feels like a step in the right direction.

DeMarlo Hale, associate manager: “That’s who Tito wanted to replace him as manager,” explained A.J. Pierzynski of Foul Territory during a segment on Hale’s hiring earlier this week. “If Tito had any say he’d have told the Guardians to hire DeMarlo.”

Tito is, of course, Terry Francona, the legendary manager of the Guardians and Red Sox (and Phillies) who retired at the end of the season. There are few better endorsements anyone in the coaching realm could receive, I think. And Hale, of course, is familiar to Blue Jays fans—and is familiar himself with many in the Jays org—because of his years as John Gibbons’ bench coach.

Like Gibby, there was a two-and-a-half year period where fans were out for Hale’s blood—along with the entire staff, the GM, and anybody else in the organization (FYRE GOBBOBS!!!)—but fortunately the roster got much better sometime in mid-2015 and suddenly everybody got smart and sainted. That means this hiring is as much an outward PR win—Hale for Hudgens? Yes, please—as it should be internally. At least if Pierzynski’s effusive reaction is any indication.

Cue statements like “He’ll be manager by June!” from all the folks who still haven’t learned the lessons of Eric Wedge, Ben Cherington, or last year’s additions of Mattingly and James Click. Sometimes it’s just about adding talent.

As for DeMarlo’s duties as “associate manager,” here’s Shi’s explanation:

“Primarily, Hale will be used in what is essentially a defensive co-ordinator-style role, focused on run-prevention from a defensive perspective. It’s akin to the fielding version of the offensive co-ordinator role added to bench coach Don Mattingly’s duties last week.

“Pitching coach Pete Walker will continue to oversee the club’s pitching side, with Hale’s work intended to tie-in with how the Blue Jays attack opposing hitters.”

This seems, to me, that it will likely be about positioning fielders, knowing about tendencies on the bases, etc. If I had to guess I would say that, on day-to-day training and drills, the Jays will continue to have first base coach Mark Budzinski work with the outfielders, while their third base coach—now Carlos Febles, formerly with the Red Sox—works with the infielders. Hale’s duties would likely be about planning and preparation for specific game scenarios and opponents—much like Mattingly’s will be, with Martinez and Mense being more hands-on with the hitters. (Again, I’m just guessing.)

Pete Walker, pitching coach: The returning champion, Walker seems to be the other side of the fantasies fans have about the coaching staff. I have no doubts that he’s a very good coach and that the Jays are lucky to have him, otherwise he wouldn’t have lasted here through four managerial regimes, and wouldn’t be heading into his 13th season since joining John Farrell’s big league staff as the bullpen coach in 2012. It just seems that sometimes, for some, he can do no wrong—up to and including allegedly being clocked going 82 mph in a 45 mph zone and then allegedly failing a field sobriety test. *COUGH* (He later pleaded guilty to a reduced charge of reckless driving).

There have been plenty of success stories under his watch, but plenty of failures, too. Yet no one seems to get quite as worked up about those as they do for other coaches. That’s the way it should be! It just would be nice if it was a little more universally applied, considering how utterly opaque all this stuff really is.

Other coaching notes:

• As mentioned above, Carlos Febles has joined the staff as a replacement for the recently-retired Luis Rivera. Febles was let go by the Red Sox earlier this winter, despite reportedly having a close relationship with manager Alex Cora, and like Rivera, had served as both the third base coach and infield instructor. Boston didn’t exactly have the greatest infield defence during his tenure—by Outs Above Average since 2018, Red Sox infielders ranked second-worst in the majors, in fact—though I would suspect a lot of that is to do with personnel and, as we’ve been discussing, myriad other factors. Xander Bogarts, through some ups and downs, did seem to improve under him, at least.

• More reason to like the Febles move, I think, is simply the fact that he’s been a third base coach before—and in a high-stress environment to boot. I mean, I’m pretty sure every fan in the history of the sport thinks that their team’s third base coach is a bozo and that they could do better themselves, but even in knowing that I suspect Red Sox fans are no joke. He’s at least comes hardened to the realities of the job.

• Ross Atkins also announced during the GM meetings that “major league coach Adam Yudelman and mental skills coach Jimmy Van Ostrand won't be back in the Blue Jays' dugout next year,” according to Benny Fresh. I have no idea either. But I’m sure the peanut gallery won’t let a little thing like total absence of knowledge stop them from chirping in sarcastic unison, “WELL THAT SHOULD FIX IT.”

Sleeper Sell

We have to face facts. Until the biggest free agent in MLB history signs somewhere we’re all going to be swept up Ohtani-mania, no matter how unlikely we may think it is that he’ll sign with the Blue Jays—or how badly people may want to posture, as some kind of sad defence mechanism, like they’re absolutely certain it’s not going to happen and anyone even entertaining the idea must have rocks for brains. There’s just no getting around this. So, I say, let’s get straight into it…

On Monday, Jon Morosi spoke to MLB Network and made the claim that Ohtani “is probably less concerned about geography and more concerned about the quality of the team he is going to.”

Now, he may have been fed this idea by an agent—or someone agent-adjacent—who is keen enough to want to avoid warding off potential suitors that could be useful in bidding up Ohtani’s price for the eventual sweepstakes winner, but it at least could be true.

In a turn of events that should have been a surprise to absolutely no one, the comments landed Morosi a guest spot on the Fan 590 the following day. He elaborated on them during a segment on The FAN Pregame.

I do know that his geographical preferences have broadened a bit, to where the first time around it was very west-coast-oriented, with the exception of a couple of different places. But now it is much broader, and now it is much more contingent on the quality of the team around him.

No, a caveat here, which is the Dodgers fit all of the categories in all of the ways, and also happen to be close to where he's played ever since he's come over from Japan. We know the Dodgers have a ton of spending capacity right now, because they have a lot of free agents. They are on the west coast, they have been in the playoffs every year for the last decade. So they do have a lot of advantages that have nothing to do with geography. The geography for them probably doesn't hurt.

But I do think, is there a universe in which the Jays can get into that conversation? I do think that he is more open to Toronto, and indeed all places around North America, than he was the first time around.

Taken in full, that’s not exactly a statement that will make anyone think that the Jays have some kind of a huge chance here. Morosi takes pains to make clear that he doesn’t think they have any more of a chance than anybody else—except for the Dodgers, who he goes right up to the edge of calling a sure bet. (Gotta keep those radio appearances coming, right?)

All of this is to say that the ellipses in the Fan’s tweet promoting Morosi’s appearance were doing a whole lot of work…

But something else happened on Tuesday. Earlier on that day, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com posted an offseason preview piece in which he told us this:

The Toronto Blue Jays, said a source with knowledge of their plans, “want to do something big” this winter. Ohtani fits, especially with Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. due to hit free agency after the 2025 season.

And then on Thursday, the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal gave the Jays another Ohtani-related mention.

At least one rival executive views the Blue Jays as a sleeper for Shohei Ohtani.

The exec’s rationale is this: Any plans the Jays had to sign Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette to massive extensions might now be on hold. George Springer’s six-year, $150 million contract expires after 2026. The team remains in need of left-handed power.

The Jays could sell Toronto as an international city with a growing Japanese population. But one problem for them, and for that matter the Red Sox and Yankees, is that if Ohtani’s priority is winning, he might prefer a club outside the highly competitive AL East. And though the Jays’ home is the Rogers Centre, a ballpark with a retractable roof, teams in the West play in more reliable conditions than teams that play large chunks of games in the East. Ohtani, as he recovers from his second major elbow surgery, might fear disruptions in his schedule because of inclement weather.

It’s all speculation, and it will continue all offseason until Ohtani picks his new team.

Clearly there are plenty of reasons not to get too excited by any of this Ohtani stuff. Passan even notes that “the industry's overwhelming expectation is that he winds up with the Dodgers.” But highlighting Bo and Vlad is interesting. Surely money has long been earmarked for a mega-extension with at least one of the two, but in recent years the Jays have reportedly gazed elsewhere—perhaps because they know it’s going to take a market rate extension to get a deal done with those two anyway, or perhaps because there’s even more there to potentially spend.

“Minnesota, the Cubs, the Blue Jays, they were really after him,” uber-agent Scott Boras said back in January, after his client, Xander Bogaerts, inked an 11-year, $280 million deal with the Padres. And Passan reported two winters ago that the Jays were the “mystery entrant” on Corey Seager, but were “unwilling to match” the Rangers’ offer of $325 million over 10 years.

To me, that the Jays remained in the bidding to the point where they could balk at those kinds of figures says a lot. Teams generally don’t reach the stage of the process where they might have to back away after their bid gets accepted. Agents would tend not to like that.

It also wouldn’t make a lot of sense for a team that still hasn’t extended Bichette to intentionally inflate the high-end shortstop market, would it? So I do believe this stuff is probably real to an extent.

And the thing is, we know the money has always been there. Only recently have we also seen a willingness from the Jays and Rogers to actually spend it.

Spend to Ohtani levels? No. But it feels like just about every year lately the organization has done something unprecedented, financially. From the Ryu contract, to the Springer contract, to the Berríos extension and Gausman’s deal, to going over the luxury tax threshold for the first time.

Obviously that doesn’t mean they’re on the verge of handing out the biggest contract in major league history, and it really is going to come down to what Ohtani wants anyway. But, I don’t know, maybe the fact that club chose a $300 million renovation at Rogers Centre, rather than a new $1 billion ballpark to the south, means that ol’ Eddie has a $700 million wad burning a hole in his pocket. Or maybe they actually recognize what a huge opportunity this winter presents for a club with a stable relationship with their cable TV partner…

Perhaps they just want to do it, and think there’s a business case for it. Ultimately, it doesn’t really matter why, or even how real their interest might be. This is the time of year for dreaming big, and we’re fortunate enough to follow a team for which that’s not even ridiculous.

Or… OK, maybe a little ridiculous. But so what? Let’s not make the mistake that many Jays fans seemed to make this season by getting so caught up being afraid of the eventual outcome that they couldn’t allow themselves to enjoy the ride.

I mean, it’s not as if Ohtani hasn’t made a completely weird and surprising choice of where to play before.

Chappyquiddick

Is Ross Atkins about to drive the Blue Jays off a bridge? You might think so based on the reaction to Thursday evening's New York Post report from Jon Heyman that “the Jays are making a big push to keep (Matt) Chapman.”

I do get it. Chapman was tough to watch at the plate for most of the season. But his year was maybe not quite as bad as I’ve often categorized it. MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald points out in his latest piece, which is about the Giants’ reported interest, that Chapman had a 154 wRC+ in July, in addition to his white hot April. And as I’ve noted before, if his season had ended when he injured his finger in early August, he’d have finished the year with a 121 mark, rather than 110.

Yes, the increase in strikeouts since he was truly an elite player back in 2018 and 2019 is pretty alarming, even if he's reined that in a little bit in the last two years. But he strikes out no more than Teoscar Hernández did, for example. I think it just felt so much worse for him in 2023 for a few reasons: the collective struggles; the weird dip in power that saw him hit just 17 home runs on the season; the fact that his wRC+ with runners in scoring position was just 77; and the fact that he was abysmal while playing through the finger injury, and afterwards, leaving an awful taste in everybody's mouth at the end of the year.

We can’t act like those things didn’t happen—or that the aging curve doesn’t exist—but we shouldn’t pretend that this is all he is, or all he’s been in his career. In 2022 he hit 27 home runs, just as he did in 2021. And though they didn’t go over the fence this year, he was still elite at striking the ball, ranking in the 98th percentile for average exit velocity and barrel rate, and the 100th percentile for hard hit rate. It’s not like his power is gone. And it’s not like the RISP thing is indicative of some deficiency in his game. With runners in scoring position his wRC+ was 122 in 2022. This year it was 169 in April and 129 in July. And it’s 118 for his career.

Tempting as it seems to be for some fans to want to make perfect the enemy of good here, one doesn’t have to squint very hard to see a good player who should continue to be a good player. Especially, I’d wager, if one wasn’t emotionally invested in the 2023 Toronto Blue Jays. So, unless this is all they would do—and there’s zero reason to believe it would be—or you’re really desperate to count Edward Rogers’ hypothetical dollars for some reason, I really don’t see what’s to be so upset about.

Especially considering the lack of obvious alternatives. And, particularly, once we start to look into this a little closer.

The Jays’ interest in bringing back their Gold Glove third baseman is not exactly new. TSN’s Scott Mitchell points out that he mentioned multiple times this season that Chapman had turned down a nine-figure extension from the club at some point this year.

In a piece last week at TSN.ca, he also tells us this:

“The Jays haven’t given up hope that Matt Chapman doesn’t find the massive contract he’s hoping for in free agency and would take something in the neighbourhood of $100 million over four or five years.”

Wow. This sounds a bit different than what we’re hearing from the reporter who has long been viewed as an instrument of Scott Boras—aka Chapman’s agent.

Now, truth be told, it’s been a while since I’ve closely followed whatever might exist of a Heyman-Boras connection, but it was frequently talked about 10 or 15 years ago. And the idea of “a big push”—which was literally all that was written in the piece—certainly feels like it could be an attempt to create the illusion of a market. And that sort of tracks with the idea that the contract Chapman wants might not be out there for him.

I know what I’m choosing to believe.

Dudlines

Earlier this week MLB teams had to finalize their 40-man rosters in order to protect players from being selected in the Rule 5 draft. And here on Friday, as I write this, we’ve just passed the deadline for clubs to tender contracts to their arbitration-eligible players.

Often these deadlines will spur transaction activity, and that’s proven true—at least in a minor way—for a number of teams across the league. The Jays, however, have been relatively quiet, with no real surprises to speak of as yet.

Here’s a quick rundown of the notable comings and goings…

• When I wrote my trade tiers piece on Tuesday I included a pair of "Rule 5 crunch" guys, LHP Adam Macko and RHP C.J. Van Eyk. It turns out that only Macko, a key part of last year's return for Teoscar Hernández, was protected by the Jays.

• Van Eyk may draw some interest in the Rule 5 draft, provided he remains in the organization until then. The Jays have lost some leverage as far as trading him goes, but it's also possible they explored the market for him and came away figuring he won't get taken.

• Van Eyk only has 13 innings of Double-A experience, and his numbers there were hardly eye-popping. But, as I wrote at the time, Jonathan Mayo and Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline highlighted him as the Jays’ most difficult Rule 5 call, noting that “he showed one of the best curveballs in the AFL, where he logged a 2.51 ERA and struck out three batters with three different pitches in an inning of work in the Fall Stars Game.”

• Tuesday was a good day for a handful of former Jays prospects, with Nick Frasso being added to the Dodgers' 40-man, Austin Martin being added by the Twins, and both Adam Kloffenstein and Sem Robberse being added by the Cardinals. In the case of the last two, in particular, the fact that they were Rule-5-eligible this winter clearly was a factor in why they were traded away.

• On the non-tender front, Adam Cimber is the only member of the Blue Jays who won't receive a contract offer. Ari Alexander of Houston's NBC affiliate, KPRC, had it first, while Sportsnet's Ben Nicholson-Smith confirmed that every other arb-eligible player would be tendered.

• Cimber was a great pickup from the Marlins in mid-2021, helping to stabilize an awful bullpen that, due to performance and injury problems, had been relying much too heavily on the likes of Rafael Dolis, Tyler Chatwood, and Trent Thornton. He pitched to a 1.69 ERA that season, then a 2.80 mark in 2022, logging 108 innings across both seasons combined and accumulating 1.6 fWAR/2.1 rWAR. A great soldier.

• Cimber had an awful time in 2023, losing zip on an already limited fastball, struggling with command, home runs, and a lack of strikeouts. He pitched 20 2/3 innings before landing on the IL with a shoulder impingement that ultimately would end his season. His ERA was 7.40.

• With his funky submarine delivery and mid-80s fastball, Cimber has already beaten the odds by piling up 323 MLB appearances. Someone will certainly give him a chance to show if there's anything left in the tank next year, though it might have to be on a minor league deal—which leaves open the possibility of a reunion with the Jays. That would be a nice outcome, I think.

• It’s at least a little bit interesting, if meaningless, that a Houston guy had the scoop both on this move, and on Macko getting added to the 40-man. Isn’t it? Meh.

• Actually interesting are some of the names—and projected salaries—that the Blue Jays have chosen to proceed with. Nobody should be surprised that Danny Jansen ($5.2 million), Vladdy ($20.4 million), Tim Mayza ($3.3 million), Erik Swanson ($2.7 million), Jordan Romano ($7.7 million), Génesis Cabrera ($1.4 million), Daulton Varsho ($5.5 million), Alejandro Kirk ($2.6 million), or Nate Pearson ($800K) have been tendered contracts. But there were cases, of varying degrees of strength, for declining to do so with Trevor Richards ($2.4 million), Cavan Biggio ($3.7 million), and Santiago Espinal ($2.5 million).

• Keeping Richards will undoubtedly draw some eye-rolls. He was absolutely brutal—and not for the first time during his Jays tenure—after returning from an IL stint for neck trouble in mid-August. There might be better uses for the $2.4 million he’s projected to make, to be sure. But another way to look at it is that he’s a luxury. They’re not that worried about payroll. So, in a way, this is probably good.

• Lastly, non-tendered by Oakland just prior to the deadline was former Jays prospect Kevin Smith. His free agency now means that Gunnar Hoglund is the only player from the Matt Chapman trade who remains in the A’s organization. Hoglund reached Double-A in his final start of the season, but over 61 innings across three levels he pitched to a 6.05 ERA with just 46 strikeouts. I think Ross might have won that one.

---

⚾ Be sure to follow me on Twitter // Like the Batflip on Facebook // Follow me on Bluesky // Want to support without going through Substack? You could always send cash to stoeten@gmail.com on Paypal or via Interac e-Transfer. I assure you I won’t say no. ⚾