Stray Thoughts... - Opening Day!
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Aaaand… we’re back.
The Toronto Blue Jays, fresh off their incredibly prestigious Golden Grapefruit victory, have returned—at least temporarily—to the Land of the Free for a six-game, season-opening homestand against MASN’s very own Baltimore Orioles and Washington Nationals. The beginning of the most pivotal, and potentially final, season of the Shapiro/Atkins Era is upon us!
José Berríos (3.60 ERA, 1.15 WHIP in 2024) will face Zach Eflin (3.59 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) here on Thursday starting at 3:07 PM ET. This one counts, and it feels so good to type those words. And while those two starters don’t necessarily make for the most scintillating Opening Day best-on-best pitching matchup, it is perhaps a fitting follow-up to a camp that went fairly by-the-book—save for, you know, that whole Vlad Thing and a couple of twists at the end that we’ll discuss below—but that precedes an AL season that is shaping up to be incredibly tight. Currently, 11 of the 15 AL teams have playoff odds between 38 and 64%, whereas in the NL that number is three.
Yes, the Jays are on the outside looking in according to most projections, and their schedule is relentless—particularly in the first half. But they’ve given themselves a fighting chance, even if I don’t necessarily agree with Chris Bassitt, who told the Sun’s Rob Longley that he doesn’t “think a lot of things have to go right for us to be good. I think a lot of things have to go wrong for us to be bad.”
I appreciate Bassitt’s optimism, because if you can’t be optimistic on Opening Day, why even bother?1 But there does seem to be a fairly obvious weak point on this roster. Hitters may not hit as expected, relievers may not pitch as expected, but the Jays at least have some vaguely interesting options to turn to in case players in those areas falter or get hurt. The rotation doesn’t really have that.
Bowden Francis, Yariel Rodríguez, and Jake Bloss, as the fifth starter, the long-man, and the first depth call-up, are hugely important pieces for this club right now, and they’re all just a little green, a little untested, and looked awful this spring.
Yes, Spring Training is Spring Training. The same caveats apply to the bad performances as the good ones, the same stuff about guys potentially working on things applies, and we’re talking about small samples here. But this is not what you want to see from a group that already includes one of your five rotation pieces, and is a twinge in Max Scherzer’s thumb away from including two:
• Francis: 15 1/3 IP, 7.63 ERA, 7.45 FIP, 9.4 K/9, 4.1 BB/9, 2.9 HR/9
• Rodríguez: 9 2/3 IP, 9.31 ERA, 9.01 FIP, 10.2 K/9, 6.5 BB/9, 3.7 HR/9
• Bloss: 8.0 IP, 9.00 ERA, 9.36 FIP, 6.8 K/9, 6.8 BB/9, 3.4 HR/9
That, I think, is especially true when your schedule, after the Nationals leave town, features visits to the Mets, Red Sox, and Orioles, home games against Atlanta and Seattle, trips to Houston and the Bronx, followed by a Boston-Cleveland homestand and then a trip to the west coast. Yeesh.
It’s also vital that these guys get themselves right considering that the club’s lineup is… um… let’s go with “unorthodox”…
Thing is, believe it or not—and this is where my eternal optimism will shine through a bit—I actually don’t actually hate this lineup. Andres Giménez, coming off of an 83 wRC+ season, albeit with a loud spring (.283/.377/.543 in 53 PA), makes sense in the cleanup spot. Not because anyone should actually believe in the spring numbers he put up—though I do believe there’s a better hitter in him than we—or, more correctly, Cleveland fans—saw last year, and I'm encouraged that his average exit velocity this spring was more than four MPH higher than last season, and that he hit two balls harder than all but one he hit last year—but because putting his excellent speed in front of Alejandro Kirk will at least avoid some double plays, and should be an asset when Kirk slashes the ball into the gaps, even if Alejandro himself can occasionally turn those kinds of obvious doubles into singles.
Should that dynamic be playing out a little bit lower in the lineup? Of course! Does it appear as though the team once again came up one hitter short this winter? I’d say so!
But I’m also intrigued by Alan Roden, Will Wagner, Davis Schneider, Addison Barger, and Orelvis Martinez. That’s hardly the youngest or most hyped group of potential impact bats, and “impact” probably deserves some heavy scare quotes there—heavier, at least, than the Backup QB Syndrome/Buffalo Hugger types would likely admit—but there’s logic to giving those guys a real chance to fight their way into and up the lineup, rather than handing a bunch of plate appearances to, say, the Ghost of J.D. Martinez or something. (Or, perhaps, to the Ghost of George Springer, though that’s a conversation for another day.)
So let’s get at it!
The rotation is healthy for now. The youngsters in the lineup have yet to be exposed as frauds. The bullpen feels like it’s in a much better place than last year—and certainly better than where they ended it…
And the stupid Orioles are in town, minus their home run leader from last season, and ready to be passed the Team That Couldn’t Possibly Squander All That Young Talent, Could They? torch.
It’s Opening Day, baby! And it’s also time for some Stray Thoughts…
A Kontract for Kirky
Before we get into the Obligatory Vladdy Stuff, or why I keep using so much Weird Capitalization in this post, let’s get to news about a contract extension that doesn’t make me sick to my stomach. Earlier this week the Blue Jays signed catcher Alejandro Kirk to a five year, $58 million contract extension that everybody but the biggest 80s-brained “clogging the basepaths” cranks seemed to agree was a nice deal for all involved.
The contract kicks in for the 2026 season, with Kirk already having signed a one-year, $4.6 million deal for 2025 through the arbitration process. The Jays, therefore, are buying out just his final arbitration year, plus four years of free agency, allowing him to potentially reenter the market after the 2030 season at age 32.
It’s a nice payday for the player, who becomes one of the better paid catchers in the league, and a sound bet for the team, who will get all of his peak years for a relatively small price. The Jays can justifiably feel that they’ve seen Kirk’s floor over the last couple of seasons, when, even though the bat—which was expected to be his carrying tool when he first broke through—hasn’t met expectations, he’s proven to be an elite defensive catcher.
Last season Statcast placed him in the 93rd percentile for framing, the 97th for Caught Stealing Above Average, and the 63rd for blocking—an odd dip in the latter category after he finished in the 99th percentile in 2023.
The caught stealing numbers feel a little on the high side, but if you go back to the start of 2022, Kirk ranks 10th in baseball by CSAA. And all of those are skills that shouldn't erode as he ages.
Of course, what could make the contract look like a great one for the team is that once-mighty bat. Kirk has sunk to wRC+ marks of 96 and 94 in each of the last two seasons. That's fine enough for a catcher—even one who runs so poorly—but if he were to hit again like he did in his first three big league seasons, or even just to his career level (109 wRC+ over 1,563 PA), he'd be pretty close to a dang superstar.
That, of course, has a lot to do with scarcity at the position. There just aren't a lot of guys who can do everything an everyday catcher needs to do and hit. Catchers as a whole produced a 91 wRC+ in 2024.
But as with Giménez, there have been some encouraging signs from Kirk this spring. His 93.4 mph average exit velocity was well above last year’s 89.4 mark, and four balls came off his bat that were faster than all but three he hit last season. And if you, understandably, are wary of putting too much into spring numbers, it's worth noting that last year was a tale of two halves for Kirk—an 80 wRC+ before the All-Star break and a 107 wRC+ after.
Partly, it's been theorized, some the issue there was the fact that he took an unusually long time to get to camp due to the birth of his daughter. How much that had to do with his poor start is too difficult to say, but it's certainly notable that his average bat speed and “fast swing rate” in April was significantly lower than it was the rest of the year.
So there’s genuine upside there, I think. And, frankly, if we’re OK with the much larger Giménez deal because his defence provides such a strong floor—and I’d like to think we are—there’s really no reason to take issue with this one.
The Kirk-Giménez-Santander Era of Toronto Blue Jays Baseball is coming, folks. Taste the excitement!
Obligatory Vlad Stuff
There was, of course, really only one story when it came to the Blue Jays this spring—the one that wasn’t supposed to be a distraction. As camp opened way back in mid-February, Vladdy spoke, Ross Atkins spoke, and Mark Shapiro spoke, all dealing with the fallout of their inability to reach an agreement on a contract extension before Vlad’s self-imposed deadline. I even had most of a post written about it, the title of which long-time readers could probably guess.
But then David Ortiz spoke, Vlad started liking Instagram posts of him in different uniforms, and then he spoke. And spoke, and spoke. And then both sides spoke through the media, and Shapiro and then Atkins expressed optimism about getting a deal done. Even today we’ve had Buster Olney reporting that the Jays have made another offer but that a gap remains, and Héctor Goméz trying to ignore the flaming wreckage of his credibility by throwing some numbers out there again. And… well… it’s been a lot to take in.
And yet, I’m looking at something that was going to be in the aforementioned unfinished February post, and maybe not all that much has changed. Here’s what I wrote back then:
Much is going to be made about the Blue Jays’ “discipline” with respect to their valuations in this but don’t miss the fact that Vlad was doing pretty much the exact same thing. He just, you know, had the leverage of being able to fuck up Atkins and Shapiro’s jobs and Ed Rogers’ franchise for the next decade, so it made a bit more sense on his part.
And let’s get something out of the way here: I understand that some will find this crazy, and I know it’s unrealistic to expect a front office to behave this way, but I don’t really care what Vlad’s number was.
Vlad infamously told a podcast in December that the Jays had offered him $340 million earlier in the winter. David Ortiz recently made the oddly specific suggestion that Vlad is worth $585 million over 13 years. The latter would give him an AAV of $45 million, which is $11 million higher than a 10-year deal at $340 million.
Sorry, but you can’t tell me you can flush $11 million down the toilet on Myles Straw with no consequences but that you couldn’t possibly think about the top end of Vlad’s salary the same way. Yes, paying Vlad “too much” for too long would complicate future payrolls, but evidently the Blue Jays are confident that they’re clever enough to keep from driving the franchise off a cliff without him, and I think that is going to be a much, much bigger challenge than a bunch of future dead money they’ll have to pay him. Especially considering that it’s not really dead money, it’s a payment to ensure Vlad remains a Blue Jay for life.
That’s truly a meaningful thing not just for the fan base but for the brand, the short-term future of the team, and the club’s ability to lure in future free agents by demonstrating that they actually already have a foundational player on board.
Plus, all these contracts are “bad,” and billionaire money is fake anyway. Are they asking for more than you think will even be out there for him in free agency? Don’t care. Don’t risk it. Grind them into lowering their number as hard as you can and then just pay him.
That’s still pretty much where I’m at. Even knowing, or at least believing, that Vlad’s number was truly bonkers and that the Jays genuinely seemed willing to get very uncomfortable with how much they were offering. The Straw stuff still very much holds given that we’re supposedly talking about a gap of just $50 million over 14 years, and Vlad having all the leverage does, too.
I understand fans thinking he’s being unreasonable, but this is the situation Shapiro and Atkins invited with their insistence that it wasn’t a big deal to go out on a limb and get these guys extended early because money would be there to pay them fairly when the time was right. It is, of course, more complicated than that. The timing simply wasn’t right until about three-quarters of the way through last season. Vlad put up a 112 wRC+ over 970 plate appearances from the start of September ‘22 through the end of April ‘24. Approaching his number during that stretch was simply untenable. It’s just… sorry Mark and Ross, but that’s the way this particular cookie has crumbled.
And while I appreciate the optimism Shapiro and Atkins have expressed of late, and am honestly given some hope by it, it’s hard not to be cynical and see it as the best tool they have at their disposal to put out the fire for the time being.
Oh, they’re optimistic? Oh, we’re hearing reports that they’re still negotiating? Well, I guess I can safely ignore that giant cloud hanging over the franchise then!
The idea of letting the market decide what he’s worth and simply making sure the Jays bid highest is a tempting one, but it feels too much like a fantasy, and is far too risky for my taste. What happens if the team is out of it come July? Do you trade him and let him feel what it’s like to play for a real contender again, and give that team the chance to put their best foot forward and the right to be the sole bidder for him for more than three full months before you reenter the picture? Do you deny him that chance so that you can keep your negotiating window open and hope that doesn’t do irreparable damage to your relationship? Where does your optimism level go then?
Until a deal actually gets done the optimistic talk feels like a stall tactic for a situation that needed to be resolved yesterday. Vlad stumbling out of the gate a little might be good for the Blue Jays’ position in terms of optics—though obviously bad for the team overall—but I don’t think it’s going to fundamentally change his number. This, to me, is pretty close to it. Banking on getting something done at the All-Star break or in the winter is madness given how important it is not to fuck this up. Print up a giant novelty cheque and bring it out on the field before today’s first pitch and let him fill in whatever number he wants.
And the rest…
• All this time between written posts and I’m still rushing to get this thing off before everybody’s got eyes on the game. Typical!
• Opening Day? In a domed stadium? So they didn’t have to build in a scheduled off day in case of a rain out? So they’re actually going to play tomorrow? Will wonders never cease?
• Earlier here on Thursday the Jays announced several roster moves, selecting the contracts of of Jacob Barnes, Alan Roden, and Myles Straw, and designating Zach Pop, Tommy Nance, and Nick Robertson for assignment. (They also placed Ryan Burr, Erik Swanson, and Daulton Varsho on the injured list to begin the season).
• There was talk of carrying Varsho regardless, considering how ridiculously well he swung the bat this spring, and simply letting him DH to start the year. I could see the argument, certainly. But I also see the argument for not getting carried away by 37 plate appearances against competition that, per Baseball Reference’s OppQual stat, on average spent last season at Double-A.
• D’ing Pop FA is a somewhat curious move, given that the reporting a week ago was that he’d begin the season on the IL because of elbow discomfort. The fact that he’s out of minor league options and someone like Dillon Tate is not likely sealed his fate. Presumably this says something good about Adam Macko’s timeline as he recovers from knee surgery, as the club could have recalled him and placed him on the 60-day IL in order to free up a spot. I get the sense that Jays fans won’t be especially troubled by the loss of Pop anyway.
• Another recent roster thing was, of course, the decision not to add lefty Ryan Yarbrough as their long man and instead keep Yariel Rodríguez in that role. While I will continue to be intrigued by what Y-Rod could bring in shorter bursts—he posted a 1.56 ERA over 56 games as a one-inning guy in his final year in Japan back in 2022—I understand that the Jays probably wanted to keep Rodríguez stretched out, since he’d be the better option to turn to in case of a rotation injury, and it would take some time to ramp him back up in-season. I know $2 million, which is what Yarbrough would have been owed if he made the team, isn’t even Myles Straw money, but that had to be a factor, too. No sense paying him that for what might have been a very short spell here. So once it was clear that Max Scherzer will be good to go, I think the move probably made the most sense.
• Interested to know what this was all about! Interested in hearing precisely zero idle speculation from the frothing masses about it also!
• You know what? This was a fun fact.
• Know what else? That’s enough from me for now! I’ve been dealing with moving out of my apartment of eight year these last few weeks, so I might not be back in mid-season posting form until the calendar flips and that’s all finished, but rest assured I will be, and I am looking forward to watching and writing about a much better baseball team this year than last. Enjoy the game everybody—or if you’re reading this afterwards, I hope it wasn’t yet another Blue Jays tire fire. NOW LET’S DO THIS!
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Seriously, if you’re already out here trying to make everyone in earshot as miserable as you are about this team, please do literally anything else with your life.
Grateful for a written piece. Thank you! (Nothing against the medium, but I do not partake in podcasts, generally.)
Yay, a written article - not a podcast. Good luck with the move and looking forward to a good Blue Jays season and stacks of Substack articles. Go Jays! Go Stoets!