Shohei Ohtani makes his first post-debacle visit to the Jays tonight, but I'm not quite done thinking about the dumb Royals series and how it fits into the team's big picture issues. (And much more!)
Three take-aways from me in this data set. 1) It's still early (SSS). 2) Maybe Ross didn't totally flub the offseason (with the exception of resigning Kiermaier). 3) What a difference a year makes for Varsho/Biggio.
Concerning GIDPs, it is mildly irritating that the broadcast does not contextualize the raw number. The raw number is not very informative, but GIDP% is. In other words, at what rate does the player ground into a double play when there is an opportunity to do so (runner on first with less than two outs)?
For the 2024 season, Toronto's GIDP% is 14.0%, MLB's third-highest (the MLB Average is 9.8%). At the player level, the GIDP rates of Blue Jays are as follows (small sample size warning):
- Kirk (40.0%)
- Clement (22.2%)
- Turner (22.2%)
- Springer (21.4%)
- Bichette (19.1%)
- IKF (17.7%)
- Kiermaier (16.7%)
- Vlad (15.8%)
No other Jay has hit into a double play in 2024.
Regarding Vlad specifically, his 2022-2024 GIDP% is 15.6%; MLB's Average GIDP% is 11.3%.
I have a theory. Could it be that the analytics team is bad? That they have bad data to work with? Some decisions are just baffling. I work at an analytics department in an international company, and sometimes the level of data literacy of high management executives is disappointing, and sometimes they make decisions after they fixate on a small insight with an incorrect interpretation. Baseball is of course different, but still could happen. I think they overestimated the impact the shift ban would have, and they thought good defenders would be at a premium. The league's BABIP hasn't changed much after the rules changes, so if they bet on it in offence and defence, it would explain why they prioritize contact and defence. A radical change in philosophy would be needed to correct for the miscalculation.
I found the fact that Barger was starting in left for the first time in his career to be an embarrassing look for the org to be honest. Reeked of desperation to me. It also had me wondering how many homegrown outfielders we've produced since, uh, 2017?
And really unfair to the poor guy. Gets called up to the show and then, hey, surprise, do you want to do something you've never done before in front of 35,000 people live and millions more on TV? No? Too bad, fuck you!
Falls clearly into the "too clever by half" category of moves when there were obviously-good options that didn't involve putting a guy in a new position in an already challenging and overwhelming situation. Schneider in left, Barger at third, and Biggio/IKF at second would appear to have been a perfectly good lineup solution that was passed over for honestly totally unclear reasons.
> Does the fact that the Jays, both this year and last, actually keep winning games in this configuration actually validate their heavy tilt toward defence, difficult as it can often be to watch? I don’t know but I’d sure like to see them hit some goddamn dingers.
Even if it's validated from a purely numerical perspective, I think we can say that it is an absolutely horrible entertainment product, and since that's what they're supposed to be delivering - we're paying to be entertained, after all, not win ball games by the skin of our teeth - I think the team needs to put that strategy in the dumpster.
I'm pretty tired of looking up at the Jumbotron and seeing a lot of OPS numbers that start with 5 and 6 in the bottom half of the inning. It's more fun watching a team that feels like it's never out of it because it can and does pull four or five runs out of a hat now and again than a team that feels like if they're one run back they're toast, even if the first team is playing from behind more often.
Top Jays players as of today by Fangraphs WAR:
1) Dalton Varsho
2) Justin Turner
3) Danny Jansen (with only 31 PA, woof...)
4) Ernie Clement
5) Cavan Biggio
6) Isiah Kiner-Falefa
Three take-aways from me in this data set. 1) It's still early (SSS). 2) Maybe Ross didn't totally flub the offseason (with the exception of resigning Kiermaier). 3) What a difference a year makes for Varsho/Biggio.
Concerning GIDPs, it is mildly irritating that the broadcast does not contextualize the raw number. The raw number is not very informative, but GIDP% is. In other words, at what rate does the player ground into a double play when there is an opportunity to do so (runner on first with less than two outs)?
For the 2024 season, Toronto's GIDP% is 14.0%, MLB's third-highest (the MLB Average is 9.8%). At the player level, the GIDP rates of Blue Jays are as follows (small sample size warning):
- Kirk (40.0%)
- Clement (22.2%)
- Turner (22.2%)
- Springer (21.4%)
- Bichette (19.1%)
- IKF (17.7%)
- Kiermaier (16.7%)
- Vlad (15.8%)
No other Jay has hit into a double play in 2024.
Regarding Vlad specifically, his 2022-2024 GIDP% is 15.6%; MLB's Average GIDP% is 11.3%.
I have a theory. Could it be that the analytics team is bad? That they have bad data to work with? Some decisions are just baffling. I work at an analytics department in an international company, and sometimes the level of data literacy of high management executives is disappointing, and sometimes they make decisions after they fixate on a small insight with an incorrect interpretation. Baseball is of course different, but still could happen. I think they overestimated the impact the shift ban would have, and they thought good defenders would be at a premium. The league's BABIP hasn't changed much after the rules changes, so if they bet on it in offence and defence, it would explain why they prioritize contact and defence. A radical change in philosophy would be needed to correct for the miscalculation.
I found the fact that Barger was starting in left for the first time in his career to be an embarrassing look for the org to be honest. Reeked of desperation to me. It also had me wondering how many homegrown outfielders we've produced since, uh, 2017?
100%
And really unfair to the poor guy. Gets called up to the show and then, hey, surprise, do you want to do something you've never done before in front of 35,000 people live and millions more on TV? No? Too bad, fuck you!
Falls clearly into the "too clever by half" category of moves when there were obviously-good options that didn't involve putting a guy in a new position in an already challenging and overwhelming situation. Schneider in left, Barger at third, and Biggio/IKF at second would appear to have been a perfectly good lineup solution that was passed over for honestly totally unclear reasons.
> Does the fact that the Jays, both this year and last, actually keep winning games in this configuration actually validate their heavy tilt toward defence, difficult as it can often be to watch? I don’t know but I’d sure like to see them hit some goddamn dingers.
Even if it's validated from a purely numerical perspective, I think we can say that it is an absolutely horrible entertainment product, and since that's what they're supposed to be delivering - we're paying to be entertained, after all, not win ball games by the skin of our teeth - I think the team needs to put that strategy in the dumpster.
I'm pretty tired of looking up at the Jumbotron and seeing a lot of OPS numbers that start with 5 and 6 in the bottom half of the inning. It's more fun watching a team that feels like it's never out of it because it can and does pull four or five runs out of a hat now and again than a team that feels like if they're one run back they're toast, even if the first team is playing from behind more often.