Stray Thoughts... - Splitting Rays like a prism

On dumb discourse, Ernie earning a longer look, Gausman, Cabrera, Bowden Francis, the Astros, playoff odds, Brandon Belt, Joey Votto, Justin Turner, IKF, a podcast reminder, and more!

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Screengrab via Sportsnet/@BlueJays

The Blue Jays began their season with bang (or three) back on Thursday afternoon, and on Sunday they erupted for nine runs to earn a solid split against a tough opponent in a nightmarish ballpark. In between things were less good, but at least the three-run output in total on Friday and Saturday got a whole lot of unserious, mute-worthy dimwits to show their whole asses as they began acting like they were witnessing 2023 all over again because, two-and-a-half games into the season and 36 hours after putting up eight runs, the team struggled to score for handful of innings.

Take it away, Ted!

Now, I won’t belabour this too much, because it’s all very thoroughly unsurprising and I’ve already called more than enough people morons on Twitter about it—plus, the vast majority of us here already get it—but it will never cease to amaze me how many people can be so incredibly passionate about a sport that they don’t seem to have ever actually paid attention to. Losses are never good, obviously. But they don’t say “it’s a marathon, not a sprint” just because it sounds cool. The team that won the World Series last year lost seventy-two times! And if you can’t handle that without trying to make everyone in earshot as miserable as you are every time a result doesn’t go your team’s way, or without thinking that every bad turn shows us Who They Really Are, maybe it’s just not for you. That’s OK!

But I don’t know—try following another team for a little bit and you’ll find out very quickly how things that drive you nuts about your own team are actually just… the way… the game… goes.

I understand that people are frustrated by the direction of the franchise, the way last season ended, and the thoroughly underwhelming offseason we’re coming off of, but that’s no excuse for stupidity. Not on my timeline, at least.

And now that I’ve addressed this I’m sure none of this sort of stuff will ever come up again. On to some stray thoughts about actual baseball things…

Big Ern

Speaking of sample size stuff, the one on Ernie Clement—the new, post-2022 version, that is—keeps on growing. And he’s showing no signs of stopping.

Sure, he grounded into a couple of double plays over the weekend—plays he made close because of his tremendous speed (which ranks in the top five in MLB after the first series)—and all his 3-for-9 amounted to was a trio of singles. But he was robbed of extra bases by a great Randy Arozarena catch at the wall Sunday, on a ball that would have left the ballpark in five MLB stadiums. He looked more than just competent at shortstop while filling in there for Bo Bichette (neck spasms). And he made some great plays at third base—including this outstandingly heads-up one on Saturday.

I can’t say I’ll be surprised if some of the magic in his bat wears off at some point, but it’s been a great start for him, which followed a great spring (1.026 OPS), which followed a great cameo in the big leagues last year (144 wRC+ in 52 PA), which followed an excellent spell in Triple-A. He produced a 136 wRC+ over 320 PA for Buffalo, which was good for 10th in the International League among 154 batters with at least 300. He landed not far behind teammates Davis Schneider and Spencer Horwitz on that leaderboard—two bat-first players who look like they could be real big leaguers in their own ight.

The elite bat-to-ball skills seem to be real, as he struck out just once in his nine trips to the plate this weekend, despite swinging at 69% of the pitches he saw—83% of the ones in the zone, and a whopping 59% of the ones out of it. The speed is real. The glove is real. If he can only hit just a little he can be very good. If him and Matt Hague can coax even more out of his bat? The sky might be the limit.

We're getting way ahead of ourselves here, but I'm more than ready to give him every day reps at third base for the foreseeable future to find out. And while I don't think we can say that Clement turning into something is going to make Ross Atkins look smart—after all, this is the GM brought in Isiah Kiner-Falefa to do many of the same things it looks like Clement could do—but it would be a much-needed development win for the club, even if it's a somewhat non-traditional one, considering that Clement had been through a couple organizations already and is 28 years old.

It has the potential to be a really great story. Now I just wish I had never learned who his agent is.

Kevin Gausman is very good

To my mind, Sunday’s Jays starter, Kevin Gausman, is a lot like Bo Bichette, in the sense that his greatness is so consistent that it’s sometimes too easy to take if for granted. (Though, given the heat Bo takes from many of the same types I was referring to above when, for example, he boots a couple of balls on Tampa’s new coconut-husk-filled turf that nobody’s ever played on before, they’re not exactly the same.)

The list of pitchers who could throw just three competitive innings all spring and then come out and dominate a Rays lineup that powered their club to 99 wins last season is pretty short. And the list of pitchers who could do that on weed is even shorter. HEYO!

I joke, of course, but there are only so many superlatives you can use for a guy like this. Gausman is a treasure, and if he has a Cy Young in his future it should come to the surprise of absolutely nobody.

Looking at some of the newfangled pitch modelling stats that are available at FanGraphs, as of Monday morning, with all of the game's best pitchers (if healthy) having made a start, Gausman ranks in the top 20 by Stuff+, the top 25 by Location+, and has been the best in baseball by Pitching+.

Data via FanGraphs

For those unfamiliar, Stuff+ is only concerned with the physical characteristics of a pitch, and Location+ “is a count- and pitch type-adjusted judge of a pitcher's ability to put pitches in the right place.”

Pitching+, FanGraphs' primer explains, “is not just a weighted average of Stuff+ and Location+ across a pitcher’s arsenal. Rather, it is a third model that uses the physical characteristics, location, and count of each pitch to try to judge the overall quality of the pitcher’s process. Batter handedness is also included in Pitching+, capturing platoon splits on pitch movements and locations.”

In short, you want to be good at this. This is good. Kevin Gausman is good. (I’m not sure what Nick Pivetta is doing on that leaderboard, but whatever.) (OK, I am actually sure; this stuff doesn’t become stable quite so quickly, with it taking about 80 pitches for Stuff+ and 400 for Location+.) (Still though, Gausman is good!)

More like Exodus Cabrera, amiright?

Are people really complaining that Génesis Cabrera got a three game suspension for the incident at third base on Saturday? Because, I don’t know, man, I think there was probably a way he could have avoided that.

Screengrab via Sportsnet/@_bkuh_

Not a great move by Génesis, and I’d be lying if I didn’t think to myself, “Huh, I wonder if something like that happening is maybe why the Cardinals straight-up DFA’d him last summer, even though he had a minor league option left.” But who knows?

He did get himself suspended for a game back in 2022 for hitting J.D. Davis, then of the Mets, on the foot with a pitch in a game that escalated into a benches-clearing melee a half-inning later. And maybe that had something to do with the three games, too.

Cabrera is appealing the suspension, meaning that he’ll be available to pitch until that process is complete—something I’d figure will be taken care of when the Jays visit New York on the weekend. With tough left-handed hitters Juan Soto and Anthony Rizzo suiting up for the Yankees, and Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez on the slate for Houston this week, it would be ideal if the suspension can be put off as long as possible.

Well, ideal would have been Cabrera keeping his hands to himself, but here we are.

Upcoming

Speaking of the Astros, they’re on the schedule for three starting here on Monday. In the opener at Minute Maid Park it will be “different cat” Bowden Francis making his first ever big league start, while right-hander Ronel Blanco goes for the Astros—who are still looking for their first win of the season after being swept by the Yankees in their season-opening four-gamer. (Thanks for nothing, Houston!)

Francis doesn't have the most overpowering stuff, though his fastball velocity has taken a jump over the last couple of seasons, averaging 94.3 mph last season in 36 1/3 big league innings. He's had some trouble keeping the ball in the ballpark—both in the majors and minors—which will make the aforementioned Alvarez a challenge, but 2023 was a very nice season for him, and he's coming off a strong camp.

However, if we're using spring performance to judge how we think this game is going to go—which we shouldn’t!—Blanco is looking even better. He didn't allow a single run in 15 2/3 innings this spring, giving up just six hits, four walks, and striking out 18. His time in the majors has been tumultuous, though. Blanco pitched 52 innings last season, starting 7 times and appearing in 10 other games, producing a 4.50 ERA, a 5.99 FIP, and surrendering two homers per nine innings. The prospect scouting report on his FanGraphs page shows him as a FV 35+, and their summary of him at the time he graduated from their lists last summer says he's “a cutter-oriented middle reliever.”

Statcast doesn't classify his fastball as a cutter, telling us he was a straight-up slider (56%)/four-seamer (40%) guy against right-handers last season, mixing in a changeup (15%) instead of all those sliders against lefties. Personally, I would love to see the middle relief version of him and not the one who had the lights-out spring!

Looking beyond tonight:

• Tues: 8:10 PM ET: RHP José Berríos (1-0, 3.00), vs. LHP Framber Valdez (0-0, 5.79)
• Weds: 8:10 PM ET: RHP Chris Bassitt (0-1, 7.20) vs. RHP Cristian Javier (0-0, 0.00)
• Thurs: Off

Quickly…

• The Yankees may have won their first four games of the season, but the projection model at Baseball Reference still gives them just a 9.5% chance of making the playoffs. I like those odds!

• The Jays have made a trade! It’s not exactly one worth writing home about, but @RealPaulRoss noticed on the team's transactions page that SS Tanner Morris—a Rule-5-eligible fifth-rounder from 2019 who spent last season in Buffalo—has been sent to the Seattle Mariners, with no return cited (TSN’s Scott Mitchell reports that it’s for “cash considerations”). D.M. Fox, aka Future Blue Jays, explains that some teams are scrambling due to new roster limitations in the minor leagues—something J.J. Cooper wrote about for Baseball America back in February, explaining that minor league teams have had the number of "rosterable" players they can carry reduced from 38 to 33, meaning that Triple-A clubs can only roster five non-active players (such as guys on the IL) in addition to their 28-man active roster. The specific numbers change depending on the level but, in all, Cooper tells us that 450 minor league jobs have been axed.

• Relatedly, according to MiLB’s transactions page (was that so hard to link?), former notable prospect Rikelbin De Castro has been released by the Jays.

• A number of great tidbits from Shi Davidi's latest notebook at Sportsnet, which begins by telling us that George Springer, Kevin Keirmaier, and Kevin Gausman are all set to reach 10 years of MLB service time this season, with Springer's milestone coming up this week in Houston. More intriguing to me is Springer talking about his struggles last season—”I started chasing things, tried to be somebody that I wasn't at times”—as well as Pete Walker giving strong praise to Bowden Francis—”We consider him a bona fide major-league pitcher and starter”—and an update on Alek Manoah, who will need a rehab assignment after missing most of spring training. “His stuff looks really good,” according to Walker. “The velocity is there. He's consistently in the mid-90's right now, which we haven't seen in a while.”

• Former Jays DH Brandon Belt told Sportsnet's The JD Bunkis Podcast on Friday that he's “baffled” by the lack of interest in his services this winter. Still without a team, Belt is coming off a season in which he posted a 138 wRC+, and in which only 11 of 203 batters in all of baseball with at least 300 PA against right-handed pitching topped his 146 wRC+ mark in the split. I get that there are red flags in his age (36 this month), his increasing strikeout rate (35% in 2023), his BABIP (.370!), his baserunning, his expected stats, and his reliance on striking the ball on the sweet-spot, but it's a bit crazy that no one thinks he can help them. A team would do well to add a bat like that, I think. I'd take him over Vogelbach (and Votto, sadly).

• Speaking of Joey, the last we heard—which was way back on Wednesday—Ross Atkins told reporters, including Hazel Mae, that he was “days away from baseball activities.” He’s going to be a fun addition to the Buffalo lineup at some point. Speaking of…

• Those Buffalo Boys can bang.

• I’m already sick of being told how clutch and what a great leader Justin Turner is, but if he wants keep hitting like he did this weekend (.286/.375/.643 with a home run and, yes, I'll even mention the four RBIs) I think I'll be able to handle it. Not sure I need to see a whole lot more of him trying to make throws from third base though. But... well... I could see a little more at least. If he can do it that's a huge boon to the roster—and somehow his first 11 innings there grade out as neutral according to Statcast's Fielding Run Value. DRS already has him as a -1 though.

• OK, I’ll admit, I don’t mind as much when V-Mart says stuff like that.

• The always astute Joe Siddall noticed an adjustment Alejandro Kirk has made to try to control the running game. Far from unimportant, I’ve always felt like this is something that people think is a bigger deal than it is because giving up a stolen base is so noticeable, while framing, game-calling, etc., are more subtle. The Jays could be better in this area though, for sure. (Do not mention Gabriel Moreno to me!)

• Credit where it’s due: I’ve been down on IKF and the whole signing-him-to-a-contract thing, but 3-for-9 with a walk is not a bad way for him to have started his season, for whatever that’s worth. (Not much.)

• Very cool local baseball news, as Left Field Brewery have announced that they'll be the food and beverage provided at Christie Pits this year for Toronto Maple Leafs baseball games. I can still bring a half-concealed bottle of wine though, right???

• Lastly, be sure to watch for a fresh Blue Jays Happy Hour podcast tomorrow. Nick and I are going to try to stick with recording on Tuesday mornings as much as we can this season, so it should be up at some point in the afternoon. Be sure to give us a follow on your podcast app of choice, and the episode will show up as soon as it’s ready. Until then, let’s keep piling on the misery for the 0-4 Astros, shall we?

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