The Blue Jays have one more series to get through before most of the team gets four full days off for the All-Star break. It’s been an up-and-down first half of the season, but clearly the seeds are something special are there, and the team is already working the trade market to try to get better.
Why the heck did they DFA Payamps when there's a bunch of bums stinking up the bullpen still on the roster? By the numbers, he's been one of our best options, the kind of guy who if he was on the waiver wire, you'd hope we'd scoop up.
Hey Stoeten, loving the site and the podcasts, keep up the great work. What are your big picture thoughts on the catching situation? All 4 of Jansen, McGuire, Kirk & Moreno have been seen at different times as the potential long term solution, maybe that's a stretch for McGuire but he has had two hot streaks with the bat. How do you see this playing out over the next year or so. Is Reese on his way out? Jansen came up with the an offensive reputation but has been putrid with the bat to this point. That said management say all the right things about him as a catcher, team mate and leader, will they be prepared to wait for the bat to come around?. Is Kirk the biggest trade chip they have considering they likely wouldn't part with other elite prospects or alternatively should he be the starter now?. Could Moreno be the best of them all, even though the catcher of the future tag has been over used over the years and has yet to deliver fully?
Hey Stoeten, loving the new site and podcast! Bit of a multi-part question: If the Jays were to offer Semien an extension, what would that look like (I read somewhere LeMahieu is a comp of sorts) and what decisions do you think it would force on the front office to accommodate his contract wrt roster needs, extensions for the young core, overall budget, etc
Hi. I don't understand the disparity between the Jay's breadth of analytics and what has led to their roster construction; Biggio, Teoscar, Grichuk, even Bichette to some degree all with significant flaws both offensively and defensively. That's almost half a roster. Can you help explain? Thanks.
Hey Andrew! Got another one for you. What do you think extensions for Guerrero and Bichette look like? Would 8/$250M for Vlad and 8/$200M make sense if they promised to continue to build the team around them? I know Vlad is in the Tatis stratosphere, but do you see a path where maybe the players take a little less to stay on a contending team with increased payroll flexibility? They’d also be buying out 3 years of arbitration in this scenario, so the players would appreciate that.
Hey Andrew! As always, I hope you are well! If like me you see Guerrero, Bichette, Springer, Semien, Ryu, Ray, Manoah, and to a lesser but still important extent Romano, Cimber and Richards as kind of the core of this team right now, which of the players on the 40 man roster do you see as having the most value for trades? I purposely did not include Hernandez, Gurriel, Grichuk, Jansen and Biggio because, other than Hernandez DHing, I think they all have serious flaws that contending teams usually don’t play everyday.
The infield D needs to improve, and ideally with some offence too. Are the Jays interested in a FA shortstop next year with Semien departing? Should they trade for one this year as a preview and play them at third? Story, Baez, Correa, Seager? Is Groshans in demand and the would the Jays give him up? Is Bryant good enough defensively to improve the infield this year? Should be an interesting trade deadline. Correa for Biggio would hurt but...
Thanks for your ongoing excellent coverage - you are mt favourite insight on the Jays.
Question: any idea why Sportsnet has done away with showing pitch velocity on each pitch? I recall they did this in some past years, and it's a staple of most other broadcasts I watch. There would easily be room to add it into the info box and I often wonder what speed a given pitch was. It is sometimes mentioned by the broadcasters, so seems they do have this info, just choose not to share it with viewers consistently.
Hi Andrew, I've thoroughly enjoyed your analysis dating back to DJF. I may have read all words of all posts since! Thanks for taking a Q&A.
The Blue Jays (and Mariners) were recently featured on the YouTube Game of the Week. The broadcast (team) was derided by many but I thoroughly enjoyed the different takes, rambling conversations and new perspectives to the games we all watch and follow so closely. Their commentary made me wonder - to what extent might our (collective?) assessment and analysis of the Blue Jays (or any team) may depend on the extent to which we are watching and listening through the same commentary and analysts? Between MLB's blackout policy and with Rogers, we Jays fans really only have one announcer set to listen/watch the game with. Might we have a shared sense through these eyes and voices and to what extent might that be different if we had a different crew for colour and play-by-play?
Hi Andrew - thanks for doing these. So as we limp into the All Star Break, what are we to do? I think there are too many flaws with the team to address at the trade deadline and if the starting pitching starts to swoon a bit, we'll be in even more trouble. Seems to me they have to plan for 2022 now. Do you think they'll make any impact trades with this in mind, or will they wait until the off-season.
I hope and believe that the Jays will continue to be buyers, but just for fun and maybe help calibrate what we should expect to pay as buyers, what do you think would be a reasonable return if the Jays were to sell Ray and Semien?
If 2022 is a significantly shorter season due to strike or lockout (which seems likely) how much does that throw a monkey-wrench into things like injuries, development, drafting, etc. so soon after a disruptively short 2020? And how does that factor into potential trade costs and service time?
How useful is 2015 as a comparison? It’s easy to see a stacked offensive team that’s significantly underperforming its run differential, just waiting to be unlocked by a few aggressive roster upgrades. But it’s also easy to want every year to be 2015.
Also, in retrospect, who won the argument (such as it was) between AA and Shapiro about Alex cleaning out the farm system at the deadline in 2015? I realize process and outcome are to some extent separate issues, but looking at the 2015 Blue Jays Transactions page on BBRef, I think the only guys they gave up who accumulated more than one WAR in the intervening half-decade are Matt Boyd (8.2), Daniel Norris (5.2), and Miguel Castro (3.1). Besides those guys, it seems like everyone else who got shipped out has been a bit of a bust: Jeff Hoffman (-1.4), Dawel Lugo (-1.1), Jairo Labourt (0.1), Nick Wells and Alberto Tirado (neither made the majors), Jimmy Cordero (0.2, and he apparently pitched 1.1 innings for the Jays in 2019), Jesus Tinoco (0.4), Rob Rasmussen (-1.1), etc. Jake Brentz finally made the majors this season and has been worth 0.9 WAR already, so I’m not sure how to count him. It also may bear noting that for everything that went out of the farm system, that was the year they signed Vladdy, which certainly goes some way towards evening out the ledger.
My favourite days are the days when one of your articles ends up in my inbox. Pound for pound, best baseball writer around. Ok, trade deadline is coming up and I’m hearing a few names being bandied about - with Nelson Cruz’s name recently entering the mix. How about, and I know this is nuts, but another Twin - Josh Donaldson. Hear me out, the Jays need an upgrade at third (need may be too strong of a word, but it wouldn’t hurt) and Josh is having a decent year. I understand the issues with the locker room, but he’s been pretty far removed from most players on the team that I’m not too sure his past behaviour would matter much. If the jays eat some of his contract, it might not take much to get him. Am I high, or could he be a target? Steve D.
Hi Andrew, Hatch being in BUF is a bit confusing especially before the two bullpen trades. Do you think that they are keeping him stretched out as a SP because: 1) Manoah may need a break due to his innings and Hatch could slide in nicely 2) As an SP he's a more valuable trade chip 3) They truly see him as a SP in 2022 and beyond or 4) maybe a combination of all those or other reasons? Thanks Jeff
Why the heck did they DFA Payamps when there's a bunch of bums stinking up the bullpen still on the roster? By the numbers, he's been one of our best options, the kind of guy who if he was on the waiver wire, you'd hope we'd scoop up.
Why did Charlie Montoyo get ejected from Friday's game against the Texas Rangers? What was the argument about?
Hey Stoeten, loving the site and the podcasts, keep up the great work. What are your big picture thoughts on the catching situation? All 4 of Jansen, McGuire, Kirk & Moreno have been seen at different times as the potential long term solution, maybe that's a stretch for McGuire but he has had two hot streaks with the bat. How do you see this playing out over the next year or so. Is Reese on his way out? Jansen came up with the an offensive reputation but has been putrid with the bat to this point. That said management say all the right things about him as a catcher, team mate and leader, will they be prepared to wait for the bat to come around?. Is Kirk the biggest trade chip they have considering they likely wouldn't part with other elite prospects or alternatively should he be the starter now?. Could Moreno be the best of them all, even though the catcher of the future tag has been over used over the years and has yet to deliver fully?
Hey Stoeten, loving the new site and podcast! Bit of a multi-part question: If the Jays were to offer Semien an extension, what would that look like (I read somewhere LeMahieu is a comp of sorts) and what decisions do you think it would force on the front office to accommodate his contract wrt roster needs, extensions for the young core, overall budget, etc
Hi. I don't understand the disparity between the Jay's breadth of analytics and what has led to their roster construction; Biggio, Teoscar, Grichuk, even Bichette to some degree all with significant flaws both offensively and defensively. That's almost half a roster. Can you help explain? Thanks.
Hey Andrew! Got another one for you. What do you think extensions for Guerrero and Bichette look like? Would 8/$250M for Vlad and 8/$200M make sense if they promised to continue to build the team around them? I know Vlad is in the Tatis stratosphere, but do you see a path where maybe the players take a little less to stay on a contending team with increased payroll flexibility? They’d also be buying out 3 years of arbitration in this scenario, so the players would appreciate that.
Hey Andrew! As always, I hope you are well! If like me you see Guerrero, Bichette, Springer, Semien, Ryu, Ray, Manoah, and to a lesser but still important extent Romano, Cimber and Richards as kind of the core of this team right now, which of the players on the 40 man roster do you see as having the most value for trades? I purposely did not include Hernandez, Gurriel, Grichuk, Jansen and Biggio because, other than Hernandez DHing, I think they all have serious flaws that contending teams usually don’t play everyday.
The infield D needs to improve, and ideally with some offence too. Are the Jays interested in a FA shortstop next year with Semien departing? Should they trade for one this year as a preview and play them at third? Story, Baez, Correa, Seager? Is Groshans in demand and the would the Jays give him up? Is Bryant good enough defensively to improve the infield this year? Should be an interesting trade deadline. Correa for Biggio would hurt but...
Hey Andrew,
Thanks for your ongoing excellent coverage - you are mt favourite insight on the Jays.
Question: any idea why Sportsnet has done away with showing pitch velocity on each pitch? I recall they did this in some past years, and it's a staple of most other broadcasts I watch. There would easily be room to add it into the info box and I often wonder what speed a given pitch was. It is sometimes mentioned by the broadcasters, so seems they do have this info, just choose not to share it with viewers consistently.
Hi Andrew, I've thoroughly enjoyed your analysis dating back to DJF. I may have read all words of all posts since! Thanks for taking a Q&A.
The Blue Jays (and Mariners) were recently featured on the YouTube Game of the Week. The broadcast (team) was derided by many but I thoroughly enjoyed the different takes, rambling conversations and new perspectives to the games we all watch and follow so closely. Their commentary made me wonder - to what extent might our (collective?) assessment and analysis of the Blue Jays (or any team) may depend on the extent to which we are watching and listening through the same commentary and analysts? Between MLB's blackout policy and with Rogers, we Jays fans really only have one announcer set to listen/watch the game with. Might we have a shared sense through these eyes and voices and to what extent might that be different if we had a different crew for colour and play-by-play?
Hi Andrew - thanks for doing these. So as we limp into the All Star Break, what are we to do? I think there are too many flaws with the team to address at the trade deadline and if the starting pitching starts to swoon a bit, we'll be in even more trouble. Seems to me they have to plan for 2022 now. Do you think they'll make any impact trades with this in mind, or will they wait until the off-season.
I hope and believe that the Jays will continue to be buyers, but just for fun and maybe help calibrate what we should expect to pay as buyers, what do you think would be a reasonable return if the Jays were to sell Ray and Semien?
If 2022 is a significantly shorter season due to strike or lockout (which seems likely) how much does that throw a monkey-wrench into things like injuries, development, drafting, etc. so soon after a disruptively short 2020? And how does that factor into potential trade costs and service time?
How useful is 2015 as a comparison? It’s easy to see a stacked offensive team that’s significantly underperforming its run differential, just waiting to be unlocked by a few aggressive roster upgrades. But it’s also easy to want every year to be 2015.
Also, in retrospect, who won the argument (such as it was) between AA and Shapiro about Alex cleaning out the farm system at the deadline in 2015? I realize process and outcome are to some extent separate issues, but looking at the 2015 Blue Jays Transactions page on BBRef, I think the only guys they gave up who accumulated more than one WAR in the intervening half-decade are Matt Boyd (8.2), Daniel Norris (5.2), and Miguel Castro (3.1). Besides those guys, it seems like everyone else who got shipped out has been a bit of a bust: Jeff Hoffman (-1.4), Dawel Lugo (-1.1), Jairo Labourt (0.1), Nick Wells and Alberto Tirado (neither made the majors), Jimmy Cordero (0.2, and he apparently pitched 1.1 innings for the Jays in 2019), Jesus Tinoco (0.4), Rob Rasmussen (-1.1), etc. Jake Brentz finally made the majors this season and has been worth 0.9 WAR already, so I’m not sure how to count him. It also may bear noting that for everything that went out of the farm system, that was the year they signed Vladdy, which certainly goes some way towards evening out the ledger.
My favourite days are the days when one of your articles ends up in my inbox. Pound for pound, best baseball writer around. Ok, trade deadline is coming up and I’m hearing a few names being bandied about - with Nelson Cruz’s name recently entering the mix. How about, and I know this is nuts, but another Twin - Josh Donaldson. Hear me out, the Jays need an upgrade at third (need may be too strong of a word, but it wouldn’t hurt) and Josh is having a decent year. I understand the issues with the locker room, but he’s been pretty far removed from most players on the team that I’m not too sure his past behaviour would matter much. If the jays eat some of his contract, it might not take much to get him. Am I high, or could he be a target? Steve D.
Hi Andrew, Hatch being in BUF is a bit confusing especially before the two bullpen trades. Do you think that they are keeping him stretched out as a SP because: 1) Manoah may need a break due to his innings and Hatch could slide in nicely 2) As an SP he's a more valuable trade chip 3) They truly see him as a SP in 2022 and beyond or 4) maybe a combination of all those or other reasons? Thanks Jeff