Months later question to a mailbag post that’s already written by why the hell not.
On Yariel Rodriguez, is it unique that he pitched abroad then was able to return to the Cuban national team for the WBC? Or are things less dicatatorial than they once were?
Hey Andrew, enjoy the site as always. If it’s not too late to submit a question, I think I have an interesting one., or not For all the talk of the player development complex are we sure how effective it is? Looking at the Jays prospect lists, it’s not great. How much time and development would it need to show if what the Jays are doing is effective. The Tiedemann story is great, but where are the rest of the development stories? Maybe I don’t know enough about player development, but I don’t think many of the prospects that have been traded are flying up prospects lists. I dunno, maybe this offseason’s disappointment has me looking for holes with this FO, but I wonder if they aren’t so great at development after all.
As always, I enjoy your writing - and the podcast! After another early post-season exit in 2023, that surprisingly managed to leave a worse taste in the mouths of Blue Jays’ fans than the 2024 meltdown loss against Seattle did, they’ve made a less than stellar splash in the free agent market (KK & IKF were not exactly highly sought after targets) so far this off-season. Our season tickets are in the 200 level and prices are largely unaffected by the renovations that have been taking place throughout the rest of the park. I don’t think anyone could suggest that the team as it stands now, is better than it was at the end of the season. Any sense how the disappointing off season is impacting the team’s need to sell those fancy/super expensive and exclusive new seats? Other than making a push for Ohtani, Atkins has done nothing this off-season to win back a very disenchanted fan-base. And that was before heading to arbitration with Vladdy over less than $2M. Interested in your thoughts on where things stand now with the team.
Thanks Stoeten for keeping on w great insight and great writing.
On that tip, I’m wondering if you can recommend other great baseball writers / books? I’ve really enjoyed Dick Hayhurst’s books, and classics like Ball Four, but wondered if you had any gems, hidden or not, you can point to. And have you considered writing a book yourself?
Similar to another question comparing GM/FO style, AA left town something of a folk hero and has gone on to have great success in Atlanta, with a ring under his belt and an exciting young team that looks to be a force for some time. It's hard not to look over and be a bit envious.
Atkins hasn't locked up any of our young core, and seems to try to be a little too clever. Aside from Shohei, he's never gone after the best FA or trade options around, and seems to look for "good value" above peak performance. Sometimes that works out (Gausman, if he stays halfway healthy that deal looks brilliant), and sometimes it doesn't (Springer, Ryu - both of whom I love watching and having on the team, but they were both value buys due to health concerns, and that's hurt the team to varying degrees).
Is there some compare and contrast to be done there? Is it just "grass is greener", or good luck, or is Atkins actually the kind of B-tier exec he seems to be as compared to the kind of exec that can really get it done? Decent but unexceptional?
Seems like the promise the team had a few years ago has drained away a bit after Atkins couldn't find any offensive upgrades at the deadline, and now can't find any in the offseason either (unless there's an out of left field trade that comes through, all the FA options are underwhelming) and looks to not even be replacing the outgoing production, let alone upgrading...
I guess just looking around and dreaming, as one does when things seem depressing.
Keep up the great work! Great questions below, one additional one.
I’d like to get your thoughts on 3B. As per Atkins, we still seem to be seeking an “OF/DH” type, but where does that leave 3B? Realistically, are there comps for competitive teams running with a committee 3B (of underwhelming offensive contributors)? As much as Chapman was tough to watch for most of the season he obviously profiled decently statistically at the end of the season from a WAR perspective. Punting a high ceiling position seems like the opposite strategy an analytics focused org like the Jays would move forward on. In short, are we really not going to go out and get a 3B and is that reasonable?
From various things I’ve read it seems probable that Bo is keen to test the free agent market. It’s meaningless of course, but I’ve always got the vibe that he’s going to leave the best first chance he gets.
Assuming this is all true and the team knows he is not keen to sign an extension, does this make him our biggest trade chip? Particularly if things go sour this year? Or would they hang on to him to the bitter end because he’s part of the young core that has long been advertised as our platform for success?
I'm surprised that there hasn't been any chatter on a long-term Bo Bichette extension this off season, as there has been in years past. Given the chase for Shohei, I think it's pretty clear that Rogers is willing to make the big investments for the right players. Obviously Bo is (at least) a tier below Shoehei, but given his track record, the nearing free agency, the recent "Arb" extension they gave him as evidence that these two parties can work together, I feel like it's a real possibility. Plus I do wonder how much motivation to get a "win" this off season there is for Shapiro/Atkins (not that 9 figure contracts should be done for PR reasons) Do you agree?
I'm also curious what a theoretical extension could look like? Obviously, the production is elite, but maybe a tick below the Seager/Turner/Lindor/Boegarts/Correa level, all of whom got $300M or near that (at least until Correa got a medical...). Is there any world where an extension gets done and the first number on the contract isn't 3?
Davis Schneider had an amazing opening weekend and is truly a likeable guy, and a great story and moustache. To my eye, regression hit hard the rest of the season. As far as performance (not personality!) I'm getting JP Arencibia vibes. Is Davis on the opening day roster?
1) Is banking on positive regression from the likes of Vladdy, and guys like Jansen and Springer staying healthy, maybe not as bad a bet as it feels like right now? Going from almost landing Ohtani to KK and IKF is obviously a letdown at this point in the offseason, but it's not like the Jays were dogshit in 2023 - frustrating to watch, undeniably yes, but, y'know, still pretty damn good. Get some better sequencing with the hitting and it's a very different story IMO.
2) I still think they add an OF/DH masher to round out the lineup, and the Jays cook in 2024. Any preferences for who that might be, given the current options?
Thanks for your amazing writing. I've been a dedicated reader since your early start. Wishing you the best here in 2024.
Reflecting on this ‘23 Blue Jays team and then looking at the Philadelphia Phillies, I am struck by their similarities and differences. They’re big-market teams. Teams in the middle of their competitive “windows”. Similar payrolls. They profile with star-power players, both with the bats and pitching. Strong catching, SSs, talented rosters - and owners committed to their rosters with similar payrolls. And yet, their past two seasons have played out so different. The Blue Jays have, in a way, shrunk in the big moments, with core players that have regressed and left postseasons very disappointingly. The Phillies, quite the opposite. I am struck by the the boldness - the willingness to make moves based on best player available (evidenced by Phillies' willingness to get the bats) vs best fit to the team (Jays being too cute by half).
These teams - these organizations seem to be polar philosophical opposites. Shapiro and the front office are a calculated bunch trying to avoid the bad contract and balance for long-term success. Dombrowski’s always been seen as hitting - and making it big for his owners. These two execs are at similar points in their career and yet very different arcs (Dombrowski with five orgs and two rings, Shapiro with two orgs and no rings). Common perceptions may be that Dombrowski has played the scouting game and gambled on FAs harder, Shapiro has honed player development orgs, is/has been the smart one. Yet the results over and over have shown that Dombrowski’s blueprint for success has worked. Teams with deep or celebratory playoff runs. Is there a lesson here, an antidote to this Shapiro/Atkins way of building?
Thanks for all your work Stoeten, still my favourite writer for Jays analysis and happy to re-subscribe and support you for 2024.
My question - what would be your take if the Jays went ahead and signed Trevor Bauer? I have never been a fan of his but it's pretty clear the dude can still pitch. It seems he's been vindicated from past alleged transgressions (admittedly I am no expert on this, but based on mainstream media coverage and recent court decisions). I feel like someone is going to take a flier, and at a relatively discounted rate for a top-notch starter - why should or shouldn't the Jays be that team and what would your reaction be if he signed on with Toronto?
Always grateful for your pieces and the podcasts, a longtime listener and reader. Atkins pointed to the down years from several players offensively as a reason for optimism in '24, which to certain degree seems reasonable. However I worry about regression from the starting pitching, partially in terms of performance but in particular with regards to the unusual good health they enjoyed as a group last season. I'd welcome your thoughts on that issue, and, related, on the farm system's failure to produce pitchers - and such necessary SP depth - for so long now.
Hi Andrew! Happy New Year. Thank you for all the great content and detailed analysis. Long time supporter/reader/subscriber, but first time with a question. Miss the pods in the offseason…Yesterday’s Atkins meet the press was very hard to take. We have had the anthony bass debacle, double speak nonsense that was universally panned, then we had the horrible end of year press conference where Ross threw his manager under the bus and he was universally criticized for that, and now this presser which was filled with more nonsense. A few months ago, he went on how we were so well positioned to attract/obtain a 5+ WAR player. Now he says (once again) he was “exceptionally excited “ about the process. That failed to land any impact bat? Despite the jays total power outage..he called it a “blip” and blamed the team comm’n to its hitters? Question: is he serious? Is this his poker racer? Or is our GM really unable to read a room/the fan base? They have increased ticket costs and yet are failing to improve the team and stating that he is “exceptionally excited about our team” that has failed to win a playoff game in the vlady era ? In most corporations you get fired for this kind of awful communication to your clients/customer base. What is your take ? It seems his PR/prep is terrible for these press meetings or he is terrible at communicating in an honest manner or terrible at seeing what the team needs? I am so confused by why he keeps going in front of the press with this failing communication style that leaves fans more upset then if he didn’t say anything. What is your take?
Months later question to a mailbag post that’s already written by why the hell not.
On Yariel Rodriguez, is it unique that he pitched abroad then was able to return to the Cuban national team for the WBC? Or are things less dicatatorial than they once were?
Hey Andrew, enjoy the site as always. If it’s not too late to submit a question, I think I have an interesting one., or not For all the talk of the player development complex are we sure how effective it is? Looking at the Jays prospect lists, it’s not great. How much time and development would it need to show if what the Jays are doing is effective. The Tiedemann story is great, but where are the rest of the development stories? Maybe I don’t know enough about player development, but I don’t think many of the prospects that have been traded are flying up prospects lists. I dunno, maybe this offseason’s disappointment has me looking for holes with this FO, but I wonder if they aren’t so great at development after all.
Keep up the great work!
Landon
As always, I enjoy your writing - and the podcast! After another early post-season exit in 2023, that surprisingly managed to leave a worse taste in the mouths of Blue Jays’ fans than the 2024 meltdown loss against Seattle did, they’ve made a less than stellar splash in the free agent market (KK & IKF were not exactly highly sought after targets) so far this off-season. Our season tickets are in the 200 level and prices are largely unaffected by the renovations that have been taking place throughout the rest of the park. I don’t think anyone could suggest that the team as it stands now, is better than it was at the end of the season. Any sense how the disappointing off season is impacting the team’s need to sell those fancy/super expensive and exclusive new seats? Other than making a push for Ohtani, Atkins has done nothing this off-season to win back a very disenchanted fan-base. And that was before heading to arbitration with Vladdy over less than $2M. Interested in your thoughts on where things stand now with the team.
Thanks Stoeten for keeping on w great insight and great writing.
On that tip, I’m wondering if you can recommend other great baseball writers / books? I’ve really enjoyed Dick Hayhurst’s books, and classics like Ball Four, but wondered if you had any gems, hidden or not, you can point to. And have you considered writing a book yourself?
Giants just gave 44M to a guy whose career war thru age 26 is worse than gausman's age 26 season.
My question is: CAN WE LEAVE ROSS ALONE?
Thanks I'll hang up and listen.
Similar to another question comparing GM/FO style, AA left town something of a folk hero and has gone on to have great success in Atlanta, with a ring under his belt and an exciting young team that looks to be a force for some time. It's hard not to look over and be a bit envious.
Atkins hasn't locked up any of our young core, and seems to try to be a little too clever. Aside from Shohei, he's never gone after the best FA or trade options around, and seems to look for "good value" above peak performance. Sometimes that works out (Gausman, if he stays halfway healthy that deal looks brilliant), and sometimes it doesn't (Springer, Ryu - both of whom I love watching and having on the team, but they were both value buys due to health concerns, and that's hurt the team to varying degrees).
Is there some compare and contrast to be done there? Is it just "grass is greener", or good luck, or is Atkins actually the kind of B-tier exec he seems to be as compared to the kind of exec that can really get it done? Decent but unexceptional?
Seems like the promise the team had a few years ago has drained away a bit after Atkins couldn't find any offensive upgrades at the deadline, and now can't find any in the offseason either (unless there's an out of left field trade that comes through, all the FA options are underwhelming) and looks to not even be replacing the outgoing production, let alone upgrading...
I guess just looking around and dreaming, as one does when things seem depressing.
Is there any argument for keeping Espinal around at this point? He already seemed like the like the odd man out (to me) before the IKF signing.
Keep up the great work! Great questions below, one additional one.
I’d like to get your thoughts on 3B. As per Atkins, we still seem to be seeking an “OF/DH” type, but where does that leave 3B? Realistically, are there comps for competitive teams running with a committee 3B (of underwhelming offensive contributors)? As much as Chapman was tough to watch for most of the season he obviously profiled decently statistically at the end of the season from a WAR perspective. Punting a high ceiling position seems like the opposite strategy an analytics focused org like the Jays would move forward on. In short, are we really not going to go out and get a 3B and is that reasonable?
Thanks for doing this Griff.
From various things I’ve read it seems probable that Bo is keen to test the free agent market. It’s meaningless of course, but I’ve always got the vibe that he’s going to leave the best first chance he gets.
Assuming this is all true and the team knows he is not keen to sign an extension, does this make him our biggest trade chip? Particularly if things go sour this year? Or would they hang on to him to the bitter end because he’s part of the young core that has long been advertised as our platform for success?
Hi Andrew,
I'm surprised that there hasn't been any chatter on a long-term Bo Bichette extension this off season, as there has been in years past. Given the chase for Shohei, I think it's pretty clear that Rogers is willing to make the big investments for the right players. Obviously Bo is (at least) a tier below Shoehei, but given his track record, the nearing free agency, the recent "Arb" extension they gave him as evidence that these two parties can work together, I feel like it's a real possibility. Plus I do wonder how much motivation to get a "win" this off season there is for Shapiro/Atkins (not that 9 figure contracts should be done for PR reasons) Do you agree?
I'm also curious what a theoretical extension could look like? Obviously, the production is elite, but maybe a tick below the Seager/Turner/Lindor/Boegarts/Correa level, all of whom got $300M or near that (at least until Correa got a medical...). Is there any world where an extension gets done and the first number on the contract isn't 3?
Love the work, Andrew; happy to support!
Davis Schneider had an amazing opening weekend and is truly a likeable guy, and a great story and moustache. To my eye, regression hit hard the rest of the season. As far as performance (not personality!) I'm getting JP Arencibia vibes. Is Davis on the opening day roster?
Thanks for all you do Stoeten, love the content.
I guess this is a two-part question:
1) Is banking on positive regression from the likes of Vladdy, and guys like Jansen and Springer staying healthy, maybe not as bad a bet as it feels like right now? Going from almost landing Ohtani to KK and IKF is obviously a letdown at this point in the offseason, but it's not like the Jays were dogshit in 2023 - frustrating to watch, undeniably yes, but, y'know, still pretty damn good. Get some better sequencing with the hitting and it's a very different story IMO.
2) I still think they add an OF/DH masher to round out the lineup, and the Jays cook in 2024. Any preferences for who that might be, given the current options?
Thanks for your amazing writing. I've been a dedicated reader since your early start. Wishing you the best here in 2024.
Reflecting on this ‘23 Blue Jays team and then looking at the Philadelphia Phillies, I am struck by their similarities and differences. They’re big-market teams. Teams in the middle of their competitive “windows”. Similar payrolls. They profile with star-power players, both with the bats and pitching. Strong catching, SSs, talented rosters - and owners committed to their rosters with similar payrolls. And yet, their past two seasons have played out so different. The Blue Jays have, in a way, shrunk in the big moments, with core players that have regressed and left postseasons very disappointingly. The Phillies, quite the opposite. I am struck by the the boldness - the willingness to make moves based on best player available (evidenced by Phillies' willingness to get the bats) vs best fit to the team (Jays being too cute by half).
These teams - these organizations seem to be polar philosophical opposites. Shapiro and the front office are a calculated bunch trying to avoid the bad contract and balance for long-term success. Dombrowski’s always been seen as hitting - and making it big for his owners. These two execs are at similar points in their career and yet very different arcs (Dombrowski with five orgs and two rings, Shapiro with two orgs and no rings). Common perceptions may be that Dombrowski has played the scouting game and gambled on FAs harder, Shapiro has honed player development orgs, is/has been the smart one. Yet the results over and over have shown that Dombrowski’s blueprint for success has worked. Teams with deep or celebratory playoff runs. Is there a lesson here, an antidote to this Shapiro/Atkins way of building?
Thanks for all your work Stoeten, still my favourite writer for Jays analysis and happy to re-subscribe and support you for 2024.
My question - what would be your take if the Jays went ahead and signed Trevor Bauer? I have never been a fan of his but it's pretty clear the dude can still pitch. It seems he's been vindicated from past alleged transgressions (admittedly I am no expert on this, but based on mainstream media coverage and recent court decisions). I feel like someone is going to take a flier, and at a relatively discounted rate for a top-notch starter - why should or shouldn't the Jays be that team and what would your reaction be if he signed on with Toronto?
Always grateful for your pieces and the podcasts, a longtime listener and reader. Atkins pointed to the down years from several players offensively as a reason for optimism in '24, which to certain degree seems reasonable. However I worry about regression from the starting pitching, partially in terms of performance but in particular with regards to the unusual good health they enjoyed as a group last season. I'd welcome your thoughts on that issue, and, related, on the farm system's failure to produce pitchers - and such necessary SP depth - for so long now.
Hi Andrew! Happy New Year. Thank you for all the great content and detailed analysis. Long time supporter/reader/subscriber, but first time with a question. Miss the pods in the offseason…Yesterday’s Atkins meet the press was very hard to take. We have had the anthony bass debacle, double speak nonsense that was universally panned, then we had the horrible end of year press conference where Ross threw his manager under the bus and he was universally criticized for that, and now this presser which was filled with more nonsense. A few months ago, he went on how we were so well positioned to attract/obtain a 5+ WAR player. Now he says (once again) he was “exceptionally excited “ about the process. That failed to land any impact bat? Despite the jays total power outage..he called it a “blip” and blamed the team comm’n to its hitters? Question: is he serious? Is this his poker racer? Or is our GM really unable to read a room/the fan base? They have increased ticket costs and yet are failing to improve the team and stating that he is “exceptionally excited about our team” that has failed to win a playoff game in the vlady era ? In most corporations you get fired for this kind of awful communication to your clients/customer base. What is your take ? It seems his PR/prep is terrible for these press meetings or he is terrible at communicating in an honest manner or terrible at seeing what the team needs? I am so confused by why he keeps going in front of the press with this failing communication style that leaves fans more upset then if he didn’t say anything. What is your take?