I accidentally got into soccer this offseason, so I've been retroactively fondly remembering DJF / BAD podcasts that were more soccer than Jays. Ah. Bold Euros predictions?
Anyway, I like to think of myself as a fairly even-keeled fan who works hard to keep his inner garbage clown at bay at all times. I've broadly understood the moves the "new" management has done, and the team has been perfectly cromulent to watch. Between the rather dubious Pitching Change to end the season last year, and the offseason this year, how much rope are you willing to give management in 2024? You'll let us know when we can unleash our inner garbage clowns, right?
This Q is related to Simon's. I'm sure you'll get lots.
Why are the Jays treating 3B like it doesn't even matter. Is there some reason why they didn't take a run at JD Davis when he got cut? Heard he did a lot of work to improve his defense, and we all know he can hit better than any option the Jays will roll out there.
I'm still a bit puzzled with what the plan is at 3B this year - I was sure there was going to be another move coming during spring but it seems like they really are going with hoping IKF is something he's never been before / hoping Ernie Clement hits well enough to take his job.
While clearly they should have signed Chapman, I understand the potential (though unnecessary) budget constraints. I'm not claiming that Jon Berti is anything special but he's an example of a cheap upgrade they could have made over the current plan.
What gives here? Are the team just much higher on the current options than the consensus or is this an area we could see them trying to address in May/June if the plan falls flat?
Vlad and Bo are Sons of Major Leaguers. They do not need to sign a deal to set up their families for generations to come. They have no pressure to sign and would probably bet on themselves anyways. The Jays are not signing them on the cheap and they probably would want to see what the market has to offer. Let them go? Trade them? Sign another expensive free agent? Or pony up the most cash of all teams?
Defence might not be as sexy as a homer, but pitching and defence can win. A lot of balls died at the fence last year, especially oppo. Maintain the pitching and defence and improve the offensive strategy and the Jays are a playoff team.
It really all comes down to Vlad, doesn't it? I mean, obviously the pitching needs to be in the ballpark of what is was last year, and better years from Kirk and Varsho would help, but Vlad REALLY feels like the only one who can REALLY move the needle, especially in the AL East. I saw the over/under for wins on one site as 86.5, and I look at that and think the Vlad of 2021 pushes that to 90. Maybe it's unfair to put all that on one man's shoulders, but that's what we - and baseball - were sold on him as a prospect, and during that 2021 season, and those abilities no doubt informed decisions about where the team could be in 2024/2025 even if Springer took a step back and as the team moved on from Gurriel and Teo. In short, if Vlad isn't elite it's hard to imagine this team being a true contender?
It’s no secret that the core of young position players are scheduled to reach free-agency in the next few years, and with the exception of Bo—who seems determined to test the market, and would be bonkers not to—there are reasons why one side or both might be hesitant to sign a long-term contract at this juncture. For Jansen it’s questions about his ability to stay on the field and whether/to what extent Kirk can stick as a full-time catcher. Vlad wouldn’t want to be paid like a guy coming off a 1.0 fWAR season, and the team would want more information about a guy with Vlad’s talent whose fWAR has gone from 6.3 to 2.8 to 1.0 over the last three seasons. The team might want to see how much of what Biggio contributes can be provided by pre-arb guys like Davis Schneider, Ernie Clement, Orelvis Martinez, etc. (And as for guys who are a little further out, Varsho’s offensive ceiling is still unclear, and it seems fair to wonder how a guy with Kirk’s body will age, esp. at catcher.) Plus there’s the bigger-picture question of whether (and to what extent) the Jays would even want to pay to keep together a core that has had very real regular-season success, but hasn’t been able to win a playoff game.
So I guess I have three related questions: am I missing anything about the possibility of extensions for upcoming free agents? What should we be looking at in terms of individual and team performance as indicators that extensions will be more (or less) likely? And if you had to guess, will the Jays sign extensions with any of the upcoming free agents any time soon?
Okay Andrew here we go! My temperature is lukewarm I'm afraid to say. I've got a ton of questions so I'll make this easy for you to keep your answers short :
1. Ernie Clement is the new Jose Bautista (not the big power guy, but the diamond in the rough context) - agree or disagree?
2. If Romano and Swanson have serious arm issues, we are in deep trouble - agree or disagree?
3. Bo is not going to sign an extension or return as a free agent so we've only got two years left of him - agree or disagree?
4. IKF takes over from Varsho as the fans target of discontent - agree or disagree?
5. Why is it that having IKF or Varsho catch from time to time is seemingly not an option? It's almost guaranteed that Jansen will get injured (again) during the season. It gives us so much flexibility regardless of how good they are defensively. I don't get it?
Happy 2024, Andrew! After all the optimism of last year's team (which I thought was overdone), I now feel that the pendulum has swung too far in a negative direction. I still have hope! Tell me I'm not delusional!
On a more granular note, I see some renewed rumours of Manoah being dealt, possibly to the Reds for Jonathan India. In principle, I don't mind dealing Alec if Tiedemann is close to ready, but I hate the India trade. Thoughts?
Ok, what is the Blue Jays plan with Yariel Rodriguez? Given the length and money in the contract, I find it surprising they are starting him out in Buffalo and have not talked about him as a rotation piece for this year. Are they just building him up? Is he actually not ready for the big leagues?
Hey Stoeten,
I accidentally got into soccer this offseason, so I've been retroactively fondly remembering DJF / BAD podcasts that were more soccer than Jays. Ah. Bold Euros predictions?
Anyway, I like to think of myself as a fairly even-keeled fan who works hard to keep his inner garbage clown at bay at all times. I've broadly understood the moves the "new" management has done, and the team has been perfectly cromulent to watch. Between the rather dubious Pitching Change to end the season last year, and the offseason this year, how much rope are you willing to give management in 2024? You'll let us know when we can unleash our inner garbage clowns, right?
This Q is related to Simon's. I'm sure you'll get lots.
Why are the Jays treating 3B like it doesn't even matter. Is there some reason why they didn't take a run at JD Davis when he got cut? Heard he did a lot of work to improve his defense, and we all know he can hit better than any option the Jays will roll out there.
Hey Stoeten,
I'm still a bit puzzled with what the plan is at 3B this year - I was sure there was going to be another move coming during spring but it seems like they really are going with hoping IKF is something he's never been before / hoping Ernie Clement hits well enough to take his job.
While clearly they should have signed Chapman, I understand the potential (though unnecessary) budget constraints. I'm not claiming that Jon Berti is anything special but he's an example of a cheap upgrade they could have made over the current plan.
What gives here? Are the team just much higher on the current options than the consensus or is this an area we could see them trying to address in May/June if the plan falls flat?
Vlad and Bo are Sons of Major Leaguers. They do not need to sign a deal to set up their families for generations to come. They have no pressure to sign and would probably bet on themselves anyways. The Jays are not signing them on the cheap and they probably would want to see what the market has to offer. Let them go? Trade them? Sign another expensive free agent? Or pony up the most cash of all teams?
Defence might not be as sexy as a homer, but pitching and defence can win. A lot of balls died at the fence last year, especially oppo. Maintain the pitching and defence and improve the offensive strategy and the Jays are a playoff team.
It really all comes down to Vlad, doesn't it? I mean, obviously the pitching needs to be in the ballpark of what is was last year, and better years from Kirk and Varsho would help, but Vlad REALLY feels like the only one who can REALLY move the needle, especially in the AL East. I saw the over/under for wins on one site as 86.5, and I look at that and think the Vlad of 2021 pushes that to 90. Maybe it's unfair to put all that on one man's shoulders, but that's what we - and baseball - were sold on him as a prospect, and during that 2021 season, and those abilities no doubt informed decisions about where the team could be in 2024/2025 even if Springer took a step back and as the team moved on from Gurriel and Teo. In short, if Vlad isn't elite it's hard to imagine this team being a true contender?
It’s no secret that the core of young position players are scheduled to reach free-agency in the next few years, and with the exception of Bo—who seems determined to test the market, and would be bonkers not to—there are reasons why one side or both might be hesitant to sign a long-term contract at this juncture. For Jansen it’s questions about his ability to stay on the field and whether/to what extent Kirk can stick as a full-time catcher. Vlad wouldn’t want to be paid like a guy coming off a 1.0 fWAR season, and the team would want more information about a guy with Vlad’s talent whose fWAR has gone from 6.3 to 2.8 to 1.0 over the last three seasons. The team might want to see how much of what Biggio contributes can be provided by pre-arb guys like Davis Schneider, Ernie Clement, Orelvis Martinez, etc. (And as for guys who are a little further out, Varsho’s offensive ceiling is still unclear, and it seems fair to wonder how a guy with Kirk’s body will age, esp. at catcher.) Plus there’s the bigger-picture question of whether (and to what extent) the Jays would even want to pay to keep together a core that has had very real regular-season success, but hasn’t been able to win a playoff game.
So I guess I have three related questions: am I missing anything about the possibility of extensions for upcoming free agents? What should we be looking at in terms of individual and team performance as indicators that extensions will be more (or less) likely? And if you had to guess, will the Jays sign extensions with any of the upcoming free agents any time soon?
Okay Andrew here we go! My temperature is lukewarm I'm afraid to say. I've got a ton of questions so I'll make this easy for you to keep your answers short :
1. Ernie Clement is the new Jose Bautista (not the big power guy, but the diamond in the rough context) - agree or disagree?
2. If Romano and Swanson have serious arm issues, we are in deep trouble - agree or disagree?
3. Bo is not going to sign an extension or return as a free agent so we've only got two years left of him - agree or disagree?
4. IKF takes over from Varsho as the fans target of discontent - agree or disagree?
5. Why is it that having IKF or Varsho catch from time to time is seemingly not an option? It's almost guaranteed that Jansen will get injured (again) during the season. It gives us so much flexibility regardless of how good they are defensively. I don't get it?
Happy 2024, Andrew! After all the optimism of last year's team (which I thought was overdone), I now feel that the pendulum has swung too far in a negative direction. I still have hope! Tell me I'm not delusional!
On a more granular note, I see some renewed rumours of Manoah being dealt, possibly to the Reds for Jonathan India. In principle, I don't mind dealing Alec if Tiedemann is close to ready, but I hate the India trade. Thoughts?
Marshall Auerback
Ok, what is the Blue Jays plan with Yariel Rodriguez? Given the length and money in the contract, I find it surprising they are starting him out in Buffalo and have not talked about him as a rotation piece for this year. Are they just building him up? Is he actually not ready for the big leagues?
Hi Stoeten,
I am not excited for Blue Jays baseball yet. Can you get me hyped up about the 2024 Jays?