Ahoy hoy, everyone! Can you believe it? Spring training is finally somehow right around the corner. The Jays announced this week that pitchers and catchers workouts will begin for them on February 18th — next week! Teams also have until this Friday, February 12, to submit a list of a maximum 75 players for spring training. They will be
Great work Stoeten, as always. I noticed Scott Mitchell of TSN tweeted that he thinks the Jays might be more of less out of money to spend on the offseason. I think that might be a guess more than anything, but if he's right, does that make you think twice about the Semien signing? I'm very happy to have Semien here on a one year deal, but if the choice was to spend that 20 million or so on him or a starter, I think I would have preferred that go toward a starter rather than adding to their already stacked line up. Or maybe they just felt there weren't starters out there beyond Bauer that warranted that kind of paycheque? Thanks again!
Is it just me or are we not talking about Teoscar Hernandez enough? I would love to know if you think his incredible season last year (until his oblique injury) was just a small sample hot streak or if something actually clicked. If it’s the latter, he sure looked a lot like Joey Bats 2.0. If he’s fully healthy now and hitting 4 in our lineup, I feel like he could be a dark horse MVP candidate.
Any chance that you'd consider striking while the iron is hot and adding a Blue Jays pitching-staff specific sports betting wing to The Batflip? With all of these intriguing pitching options available this year, things could get frothy. And if we were putting money on Jays pitchers for innings-pitched in 2021, might Trent Thornton be undervalued next to some of the shinier new or rising players?
A little late here but hoping to sneak this question in:
With the Jays having splurged on Springer but otherwise maintaining some future financial flexibility with their bevy of one-year deals, I'm wondering what your thoughts are on next year's possible free agent SP market?
From my uninformed position, it doesn't look too promising: while there are some big names like Verlander, Greinke, and Scherzer, those are guys on the high side of 30 and—given their illustrious careers—are probably still going to expect high value, longer-term deals.
And while someone like Syndergaard might be appealing, I have to imagine that the Mets will try to extend him, especially having lost the Bauer sweepstakes.
Just wondering how you see this impacting the Jays going forward...starting pitching seems like such a big need for the team but I don't know if I see many obvious targets.
First time question asker here. With the recent PECOTA projections one of first things to pop out to me was the difference between projected win% and run differential across the AL divisions. A White Sox team (-10) has a projected 83 wins, and the Blue Jays (+39) are projected at 84+ wins. Now, I am no statistician and understand these projections are complex, but I’d think a +50 difference is more than 1 win. Does this suggest significant differences in divisional strengths? If so, I know there is a lot of talk about increasing competitiveness across the league in the next CBA, any thoughts on possibly reworking the divisional framework.
Stoeten - I was shocked to see that Fangraphs projected the Red Sox to be within one win of the Jays. Perhaps I'm overweighting the tire-fire that was 2020 for the Sox. But really? Are you buying this? I for one am much more concerned about the Rays when it comes to wild card spots (and of course the Yankees but they seem likely division winners), but maybe I'm just an idiot.
Could the Jays and Bisons both play in Buffalo and is there a way the team could benefit from that?
I'm thinking with the news that there is potential for a travel ban in the U.S. concerning Florida, while at the same time New York State is opening up somewhat allowing for a small number of fans to attend (and Canada lagging in vaccines), Buffalo may be seeming more likely.
It's become common in hockey to keep affiliate teams i.e. Leafs and Marlies in Toronto to facilitate easily moving guys around. Maybe the taxi squad makes it less important but wondering how the Jays could use the arrangement if it breaks down that way to their advantage.
The Phelps/Yamaguchi transaction is a net gain on its own as you nicely argue in your piece today, but could the Jays be building depth in the bullpen in order to create a glut of tweener pitchers who could shuttle between the majors/minors and openers/spot starters/relievers as a way of avoiding the remaining SP market? The benefits of depth and flexibility notwithstanding, are they focusing their resources on the bullpen to avoid paying Walker, Paxton et al?
Should we be *expecting* a rotation add before the season starts?
Obviously there are guys out there who'd fill the role, but would you be surprised if the starting pitching depth is the same now as it is when the team actually plays games?
Forgive me if this has been addressed I am 2 newsletters behind. Based on this year's market do you see teams /Jays dragging their FA signings (particularly bull pens since these are always in flux ) into late March to see how things shake out? Or will signings ramp up over next 2 weeks.
Even if the Jays don't land another starting pitcher, I'm talking myself into the idea that odds of having a competitive rotation are not terrible. Ryu needs to stay healthy and Nate needs to take a step forward, and while those things are not a given I don't think they're crazy to wish for. As for the other 3 spots, we're left relying on a cast of characters that we all have less faith in by comparison, but, if even two of them can meaningfully improve on their previous season the rotation is suddenly in decent shape. It feels like a lot of pitchers have come to Toronto and done just that - exceed expectations. Do you think it's reasonable to anticipate that Pete Walker and co. can work their magic on at least a couple of these guys? Or do you think nice stories like Estrada, Liriano, Giles etc. are more the exception than the norm?
AS, love the trajectory Jays are on. Making good moves this off-season, a budding young core, a well-regarded farm system. But aren't folks starting to expect too much from the Jays this year? An 85 win team certainly beats the 17 & 18 Jays, but is it really even a playoff team? A World Series contender? They seem half-pregnant to me. There are several upgrades still out there in free agency. Won't the Jays need to make a couple more moves this off-season to really be considered a contender? I know they can improve in-season via trades and up to trade deadline, but so will other teams. When the Angels, Red Sox and Indians are neck and neck with Jays on paper, feels like there is still some work to do.
I’ve been reading that people think Springer is going to age better than other players who have signed big contracts at age 31. Can you help me understand why writers, and baseball folks, think this to be true?
How would you rank the following in terms of innings pitched/starts made for the Jays in the coming season: Ray, Stripling, Roark, Matz, Thornton, Hatch, Kay, Merryweather, Zeuch, Walker and Paxton? Am I missing any serious rotation contenders?
Great work Stoeten, as always. I noticed Scott Mitchell of TSN tweeted that he thinks the Jays might be more of less out of money to spend on the offseason. I think that might be a guess more than anything, but if he's right, does that make you think twice about the Semien signing? I'm very happy to have Semien here on a one year deal, but if the choice was to spend that 20 million or so on him or a starter, I think I would have preferred that go toward a starter rather than adding to their already stacked line up. Or maybe they just felt there weren't starters out there beyond Bauer that warranted that kind of paycheque? Thanks again!
Is it just me or are we not talking about Teoscar Hernandez enough? I would love to know if you think his incredible season last year (until his oblique injury) was just a small sample hot streak or if something actually clicked. If it’s the latter, he sure looked a lot like Joey Bats 2.0. If he’s fully healthy now and hitting 4 in our lineup, I feel like he could be a dark horse MVP candidate.
Saw this: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-10/canadian-betting-firm-prepares-u-s-listing-after-266-surge
Any chance that you'd consider striking while the iron is hot and adding a Blue Jays pitching-staff specific sports betting wing to The Batflip? With all of these intriguing pitching options available this year, things could get frothy. And if we were putting money on Jays pitchers for innings-pitched in 2021, might Trent Thornton be undervalued next to some of the shinier new or rising players?
Hi Andrew,
A little late here but hoping to sneak this question in:
With the Jays having splurged on Springer but otherwise maintaining some future financial flexibility with their bevy of one-year deals, I'm wondering what your thoughts are on next year's possible free agent SP market?
From my uninformed position, it doesn't look too promising: while there are some big names like Verlander, Greinke, and Scherzer, those are guys on the high side of 30 and—given their illustrious careers—are probably still going to expect high value, longer-term deals.
And while someone like Syndergaard might be appealing, I have to imagine that the Mets will try to extend him, especially having lost the Bauer sweepstakes.
Just wondering how you see this impacting the Jays going forward...starting pitching seems like such a big need for the team but I don't know if I see many obvious targets.
Thanks as always!
Hey Andrew,
First time question asker here. With the recent PECOTA projections one of first things to pop out to me was the difference between projected win% and run differential across the AL divisions. A White Sox team (-10) has a projected 83 wins, and the Blue Jays (+39) are projected at 84+ wins. Now, I am no statistician and understand these projections are complex, but I’d think a +50 difference is more than 1 win. Does this suggest significant differences in divisional strengths? If so, I know there is a lot of talk about increasing competitiveness across the league in the next CBA, any thoughts on possibly reworking the divisional framework.
Thanks for what you do!
- Dan
Stoeten - I was shocked to see that Fangraphs projected the Red Sox to be within one win of the Jays. Perhaps I'm overweighting the tire-fire that was 2020 for the Sox. But really? Are you buying this? I for one am much more concerned about the Rays when it comes to wild card spots (and of course the Yankees but they seem likely division winners), but maybe I'm just an idiot.
Could the Jays and Bisons both play in Buffalo and is there a way the team could benefit from that?
I'm thinking with the news that there is potential for a travel ban in the U.S. concerning Florida, while at the same time New York State is opening up somewhat allowing for a small number of fans to attend (and Canada lagging in vaccines), Buffalo may be seeming more likely.
It's become common in hockey to keep affiliate teams i.e. Leafs and Marlies in Toronto to facilitate easily moving guys around. Maybe the taxi squad makes it less important but wondering how the Jays could use the arrangement if it breaks down that way to their advantage.
The Phelps/Yamaguchi transaction is a net gain on its own as you nicely argue in your piece today, but could the Jays be building depth in the bullpen in order to create a glut of tweener pitchers who could shuttle between the majors/minors and openers/spot starters/relievers as a way of avoiding the remaining SP market? The benefits of depth and flexibility notwithstanding, are they focusing their resources on the bullpen to avoid paying Walker, Paxton et al?
Should we be *expecting* a rotation add before the season starts?
Obviously there are guys out there who'd fill the role, but would you be surprised if the starting pitching depth is the same now as it is when the team actually plays games?
Forgive me if this has been addressed I am 2 newsletters behind. Based on this year's market do you see teams /Jays dragging their FA signings (particularly bull pens since these are always in flux ) into late March to see how things shake out? Or will signings ramp up over next 2 weeks.
Youth is king. It's a young man's game. Where will Martin and Groshans play? Can they arrive in 2022? Who would be optimistic comparables for them?
Dear Mr. Stoets,
Even if the Jays don't land another starting pitcher, I'm talking myself into the idea that odds of having a competitive rotation are not terrible. Ryu needs to stay healthy and Nate needs to take a step forward, and while those things are not a given I don't think they're crazy to wish for. As for the other 3 spots, we're left relying on a cast of characters that we all have less faith in by comparison, but, if even two of them can meaningfully improve on their previous season the rotation is suddenly in decent shape. It feels like a lot of pitchers have come to Toronto and done just that - exceed expectations. Do you think it's reasonable to anticipate that Pete Walker and co. can work their magic on at least a couple of these guys? Or do you think nice stories like Estrada, Liriano, Giles etc. are more the exception than the norm?
AS, love the trajectory Jays are on. Making good moves this off-season, a budding young core, a well-regarded farm system. But aren't folks starting to expect too much from the Jays this year? An 85 win team certainly beats the 17 & 18 Jays, but is it really even a playoff team? A World Series contender? They seem half-pregnant to me. There are several upgrades still out there in free agency. Won't the Jays need to make a couple more moves this off-season to really be considered a contender? I know they can improve in-season via trades and up to trade deadline, but so will other teams. When the Angels, Red Sox and Indians are neck and neck with Jays on paper, feels like there is still some work to do.
I’ve been reading that people think Springer is going to age better than other players who have signed big contracts at age 31. Can you help me understand why writers, and baseball folks, think this to be true?
Hey Andrew,
What's your go to order at Arby's
That is all
How would you rank the following in terms of innings pitched/starts made for the Jays in the coming season: Ray, Stripling, Roark, Matz, Thornton, Hatch, Kay, Merryweather, Zeuch, Walker and Paxton? Am I missing any serious rotation contenders?