Since fans generally overestimate the return from a sell-off, what are realistic trades for our impending free agents and how much would it really improve the farm?
On the flip side, which impending free agents would be most targeted by other teams? I think Kikuchi and Yimi are the biggest (only?) trade chips that could help any contender.
I'm writing this after Friday's loss to the Twins, 3-2, and I usually do not find losses egregious, but this one really irked me. IKF steps up to the plate with 2 men on base and 2 outs. Why not have Daniel Vogelbach, with a career 129 wRC+ against righties, pinch hit here? What's the point of having so many players capable of playing a lot of defensive positions, if the bench isn't in play every game? The Blue Jays rank 22nd on PAs by a pinch hitter, and even though they sport a 127 wRC+, that translates in 4 hits (3 singles and a home run) and 3 walks on 22 PAs, and defensively the could shift Schneider to 2nd and slot Kiermaier into CF, sliding Varsho to LF. The roster is constructed exactly for being aggressive, however the Blue Jays haven't been exactly that this season.
These kind of decisions are making me question the effectiveness of the data they have, the analysis of such data, and the decisions they make with that. I do not claim I know better than the team, they have access to better data and they do that for a job. However, lately I feel as if the Blue Jays are behind other teams with respect to their analytics department. So, my question is, do the Blue Jays have a good analytics team?
There’s a narrative out there that because they’ve invested so much $$$ in the renovations and luxury seats/lounges etc the Jays can’t ‘afford’ to field mediocre teams the next few years. How valid do you think that is? Does that narrative preclude us making some trades at the deadline if we find ourselves 10 games under (or worse)?
Hi Stoet, I agree with your thoughts on lineup. How do they not make more significant changes? Sure lineup construction not a huge factor, but don’t these guys subscribe to the theory of incremental gains compounding? I am sure that is painted on a wall somewhere lol.
Anyways my question- a wise man once said “this market is a behemoth and there will be waves of talent flowing” - now Me personally, I don’t believe in rebuilds. I look at big market teams like the yanks and LA for example, and these guys find a way to always be in the conversation through spending or prospects or trades. Why can’t we figure this out here? We have unlimited money and giant market. How can we have a farm system with not enough prospects to pull off deals or restock the big club? It’s been 10 years since AA supposedly emptied the system. Any thoughts?
On one hand…baseball and watching baseball is supposed to be fun! On the other hand…you know where this is going. I consider myself a fairly even handed and rational fan who tries to take everything over the course of a long season with a grain of salt. Basically I’m at loss right now as to how to maintain my rational fun loving fandom in the face of ….this. (Don’t worry I will never actually stop watching the Blue Jays). I like traveling to go see the boys play and I typically have to since I live in Arizona. Few things get me more excited to spend money and make plans than an annual BlueJays pilgrimage to some American baseball outpost. I have yet to make plans this season and I can only say it’s because the way this team makes me feel. I don’t even know what my question is…I reaallly want my enjoyment of BASEBALL to outweigh my negative feelings for this iteration of my favorite team…but how. Help me Andrew?
I imagine that there are going to be a lot of negative questions in this mailbag (and rightfully so!), so I'd like to at least try to find something positive to talk about. Ernie Clement and Davis Schneider have been lone bright spots to start the season. While a couple hundred plate appearances doesn't make a career, both have done everything asked of them so far. Couple that with a good AAA season for
the top position prospect in Martinez, and some good numbers for Horwitz and Barger (even by AAA standards), there are enough good close-to-the-majors and early career guys that should the Jays go full teardown (which I know is WAY too early to talk about) there is at at least *something* to start with. I know its nothing compared to the Orioles recent class, or the top level potential of Vlad and Bo in 2019, but do you share my feeling that there is some reason for optimism with this next wave of prospects?
Having been a fan of the Jays from 1989 onwards, this may be the toughest season to watch so far. 1995 to 2014 was painful at times, don't get me wrong, but those teams didn't have much sustained talent outside of Halladay and Delgado, so expectations were low. This team is simply frustrating to watch. That being said, I'm still a fan, I'm still going to watch every damn game.
When I look at this team, I see a collection of free-agent signings surrounding a failed player development system. The result is an older team, highly paid, unable to reach the highs that were expected—as the older free agents decline and the core does not reach its ceiling.
Despite coming from a player development background, Shapiro and Atkins have not been able to deliver on their vision of "waves after waves of talent." Consistently, players drafted and developed - those considered to have a high ceiling have yet to materialize or sustain that ceiling (Manoah, Bo, Vlad). Below this layer is a litany of draft failures (Brandon Barriera, Gunnar Hogland, Austin Martin, Jordan Groshans, Logan Warmoth...wow, that is a horrible draft record!) that have left the minors barren to aid any quick reboot.
How does a leadership team miss processes that are supposedly their strength? Nine years in, these vaunted processes are not yielding results; how does one dissect these player scouting and development processes to root out the rot?
Since the Blue Jays are pretty tough to watch right now (and really what else is there to say about them?) I wanted to get your take on something more frivolous.
When I look around baseball, I see teams everywhere having fun with home run celebrations. Personally, I enjoy this; it is nice to see teams having fun in a long baseball season, and some of them are quite funny. I know it isn't for everyone, but I'm all for it. I mean, come on, the trident in Seattle is good stuff.
Now, I realize that the Blue Jays are a SERIOUS team full of Rex Banners who would never allow themselves to have fun at all (you all know what laughter sounds like!), but have you seen any around the league that you enjoy? Maybe a top 3?
My mom says that, ever since they traded Teoscar, and retired the home run jacket, the team has been having less fun, and it shows. It was fun when they were good, and it could make watching this frustrating team a bit more fun, for sure.
It is early Stoeten, BUT, I can't get the Orioles out of my head. They are young, talented, and have seemingly waves of talent percolating in the minors. They have become what we thought this Jays team was set up to be in the 2022-25 years. Sure the Jays could play to their career norms and sneak into the playoffs, but they don't appear to be a real contender. Thus, should the selloff and restock the system begin? I honestly don't believe it is the GM or the President or the Manager's fault. We can replace them all, and we'll still in the future have trades we win and lose, draft picks that work out and don't, and lineups and decisions that we like and second guess. Ultimately, the talent on the field has to perform. The projections haven't turned into reality for this core unfortunately. The team is running a record payroll, thus it seems we've got to shed payroll, get what we can, and try and pivot so it doesn't become a future lost decade. What says you wise one?
I've stopped watching games. I still follow the team in various ways (like reading your blog! #greatstuffStoeten) but I just hit my breaking point about a week ago, and decided to take a break.
This team was young and fun: hitting dingers, sunflower seed showers, home run jackets, and yes stupid mistakes in the field and brain farts on the basepaths too, and I honestly think the front office broke something through what I can only guess was a massive overcorrection to some very real flaws by way of 1) bringing on too many red-ass veterans and shipping our mistake-prove but dynamic players, and 2) what I can only surmise is some really bad hitting approaches driven either by players or the coaching staff. (The recent Danny Jansen comments about pulling the ball makes me think it's the latter but... Idk.)
I found myself in a constant state of frustration. This is supposed to be enjoyable! I like baseball! A lot! I'm not a guy hopping on social media after every random loss demanding people lose their jobs or coming up with ludicrous trade scenarios for a guy after a few rough days (or weeks), and yet... here I am. The Blue Jays did this to me!
This sucks, man. This should be their contention window, and while the pitching staff is certainly good enough the FO just couldn't/wouldn't make that one all-in big move to bring in the big bat they clearly needed. (Not going to re-hash the Ohtani thing, but where was your Plan B, guys?)
Firing the manager or even a coach or two doesn't solve this, I don't think. Does a big in-season trade to bring in some much-needed offense help? Maybe! Does Atkins take the fall? Almost certainly. But it all feels like a much deeper problem than that, a kind of deep-rooted malaise (but maybe I'm projecting). There's just too much talent on this roster for them to be this tedious a watch. Anyway, here's my question, and it's half-rhetorical and half-earnest: How do the Blue Jays fix this?
Hi Stoets, can we leave our mailbag questions here?
Over some drinks at the pub, some friends and I were mulling over who from the Jays will be on the chopping block if things don't improve. Schneider's got to be in some degree of peril, but many GM's who part ways with their third manager in 5-ish years would draw a lot of heat too. This led us to a discussion of how insulated Ross is from being fired by Mark Shapiro, as the two obviously have a long history of working together. The opinions around the table ranged from "They are a package deal and Mark won't fire Ross" to "we'd need to be completely drained of talent for Ross to get canned", and I tend to lean a bit towards "Mark would fire Ross if he thought he Atkins' meddling with the coaching was holding back the talent" but I can honestly imagine any of those scenarios (and maybe others!) being true. Do you have a sense of how strong of a package deal those two are, or what it would take for Mark to cut Ross loose?
It's becoming pretty clear that, if nothing else, the Blue Jays could use a fresh set of eyes in the GM's chair. But, while I'd welcome never having to see or hear from or hear about Ross Atkins as much as the next guy, it seems foolhardy to hold one's breath waiting for a Modern Major League Franchise™ to appoint a replacement who would operate all that differently -- or, crucially, do that much better. Even after quite likely the most deflating offseason of Atkins' tenure, Justin Turner clearly still has The Goods, and if the season ended today (May 7) -- as many would welcome, no doubt -- IKF would have a career-high wRC+ (of, uhhh, 93).
Or, consider his signature too-clever-by-half move that everyone loves to hate, trading away the potential franchise catcher who the disgraced sesquipedalian screed merchant we'll call for privacy's sake Rosie D. (no, that's too specific -- R. DiManno) calls "Gabe Marino". Daulton Varsho has as much fWAR so far in 2024 as his two next best position player teammates combined, and his defense is one of the increasingly few things keeping this team from becoming straight-up unwatchable in its current state.
Things are likelier to get better in the short-term than they are to get worse, so the following is a pretty big "if", but:
1. If the team stays stuck in the mud and is forced into an early rebuild -- or, uh, "pivot" -- this summer (instead of the one many have suggested is looming in one/both of the next two offseasons anyway), how likely do you think it is that Ross Atkins is the GM to lead it?
2. For as many depreciating assets as the team does have, or as many guys (Vladdy, Bo, Kirk, etc.) as they'd be trading at an ebb in (if not the nadir of) their value, do you think it's more likely that they make somewhat more lateral moves that might better fill out the active roster/upper minors or net them More Years Of Control, as opposed to a full teardown/fire sale?
I don't love the team's long-term outlook but there's certainly still enough meat on the bones here that it'd seem far more logical to take a step back, while prolonging their window of at least being good, than to blow it up on the off chance they could be the next Orioles in 2030 or whenever. Keep shooting for 54% like the other Modern Major League Franchises™, I guess.
3. Stoeten, without knowing precisely what the Blue Jays' future holds, would you say it's time for their fans to crack each other's heads open and feast on the goo inside?
Heard a pundit (Rosenthal?) mention that the Jays could be serious sellers at the trade deadline. He also suggested that Vlad could be one of the players on the block, and that there could be teams out there confident they could “fix this guy”. If that were to happen and 2021 Vladdy emerges on another team, wouldn’t that be justification for Rogers to fire *everybody* and start over.
Unlike many fans I don’t subscribe to notion of laying the blame at the feet of Atkins. Atkins can’t make Springer, Bo, Vlad, Kirk etc produce at the plate. These are all supposed to be elite players and they have to figure it out for themselves. Vlad has been regressing for three years. I don’t think the Jays will want to sign him for $400 million for 10 years. I’ve been wondering since the end of last season about trading him to a team that still sees a lot of value. He’s under team control for another full year. What do you think of a couple of high ceiling recent draft picks (to help rebuild the farm system) + a couple of proven veterans maybe in their 30’s? Would there be any takers? What’s the downside for the Jays?
Since fans generally overestimate the return from a sell-off, what are realistic trades for our impending free agents and how much would it really improve the farm?
On the flip side, which impending free agents would be most targeted by other teams? I think Kikuchi and Yimi are the biggest (only?) trade chips that could help any contender.
Hello Andrew,
I'm writing this after Friday's loss to the Twins, 3-2, and I usually do not find losses egregious, but this one really irked me. IKF steps up to the plate with 2 men on base and 2 outs. Why not have Daniel Vogelbach, with a career 129 wRC+ against righties, pinch hit here? What's the point of having so many players capable of playing a lot of defensive positions, if the bench isn't in play every game? The Blue Jays rank 22nd on PAs by a pinch hitter, and even though they sport a 127 wRC+, that translates in 4 hits (3 singles and a home run) and 3 walks on 22 PAs, and defensively the could shift Schneider to 2nd and slot Kiermaier into CF, sliding Varsho to LF. The roster is constructed exactly for being aggressive, however the Blue Jays haven't been exactly that this season.
These kind of decisions are making me question the effectiveness of the data they have, the analysis of such data, and the decisions they make with that. I do not claim I know better than the team, they have access to better data and they do that for a job. However, lately I feel as if the Blue Jays are behind other teams with respect to their analytics department. So, my question is, do the Blue Jays have a good analytics team?
Thanks for reading, and best regards,
Gabriel Gutierrez Saldate, from Mexico
There’s a narrative out there that because they’ve invested so much $$$ in the renovations and luxury seats/lounges etc the Jays can’t ‘afford’ to field mediocre teams the next few years. How valid do you think that is? Does that narrative preclude us making some trades at the deadline if we find ourselves 10 games under (or worse)?
Hi Stoet, I agree with your thoughts on lineup. How do they not make more significant changes? Sure lineup construction not a huge factor, but don’t these guys subscribe to the theory of incremental gains compounding? I am sure that is painted on a wall somewhere lol.
Anyways my question- a wise man once said “this market is a behemoth and there will be waves of talent flowing” - now Me personally, I don’t believe in rebuilds. I look at big market teams like the yanks and LA for example, and these guys find a way to always be in the conversation through spending or prospects or trades. Why can’t we figure this out here? We have unlimited money and giant market. How can we have a farm system with not enough prospects to pull off deals or restock the big club? It’s been 10 years since AA supposedly emptied the system. Any thoughts?
On one hand…baseball and watching baseball is supposed to be fun! On the other hand…you know where this is going. I consider myself a fairly even handed and rational fan who tries to take everything over the course of a long season with a grain of salt. Basically I’m at loss right now as to how to maintain my rational fun loving fandom in the face of ….this. (Don’t worry I will never actually stop watching the Blue Jays). I like traveling to go see the boys play and I typically have to since I live in Arizona. Few things get me more excited to spend money and make plans than an annual BlueJays pilgrimage to some American baseball outpost. I have yet to make plans this season and I can only say it’s because the way this team makes me feel. I don’t even know what my question is…I reaallly want my enjoyment of BASEBALL to outweigh my negative feelings for this iteration of my favorite team…but how. Help me Andrew?
I imagine that there are going to be a lot of negative questions in this mailbag (and rightfully so!), so I'd like to at least try to find something positive to talk about. Ernie Clement and Davis Schneider have been lone bright spots to start the season. While a couple hundred plate appearances doesn't make a career, both have done everything asked of them so far. Couple that with a good AAA season for
the top position prospect in Martinez, and some good numbers for Horwitz and Barger (even by AAA standards), there are enough good close-to-the-majors and early career guys that should the Jays go full teardown (which I know is WAY too early to talk about) there is at at least *something* to start with. I know its nothing compared to the Orioles recent class, or the top level potential of Vlad and Bo in 2019, but do you share my feeling that there is some reason for optimism with this next wave of prospects?
Having been a fan of the Jays from 1989 onwards, this may be the toughest season to watch so far. 1995 to 2014 was painful at times, don't get me wrong, but those teams didn't have much sustained talent outside of Halladay and Delgado, so expectations were low. This team is simply frustrating to watch. That being said, I'm still a fan, I'm still going to watch every damn game.
When I look at this team, I see a collection of free-agent signings surrounding a failed player development system. The result is an older team, highly paid, unable to reach the highs that were expected—as the older free agents decline and the core does not reach its ceiling.
Despite coming from a player development background, Shapiro and Atkins have not been able to deliver on their vision of "waves after waves of talent." Consistently, players drafted and developed - those considered to have a high ceiling have yet to materialize or sustain that ceiling (Manoah, Bo, Vlad). Below this layer is a litany of draft failures (Brandon Barriera, Gunnar Hogland, Austin Martin, Jordan Groshans, Logan Warmoth...wow, that is a horrible draft record!) that have left the minors barren to aid any quick reboot.
How does a leadership team miss processes that are supposedly their strength? Nine years in, these vaunted processes are not yielding results; how does one dissect these player scouting and development processes to root out the rot?
Since the Blue Jays are pretty tough to watch right now (and really what else is there to say about them?) I wanted to get your take on something more frivolous.
When I look around baseball, I see teams everywhere having fun with home run celebrations. Personally, I enjoy this; it is nice to see teams having fun in a long baseball season, and some of them are quite funny. I know it isn't for everyone, but I'm all for it. I mean, come on, the trident in Seattle is good stuff.
Now, I realize that the Blue Jays are a SERIOUS team full of Rex Banners who would never allow themselves to have fun at all (you all know what laughter sounds like!), but have you seen any around the league that you enjoy? Maybe a top 3?
My mom says that, ever since they traded Teoscar, and retired the home run jacket, the team has been having less fun, and it shows. It was fun when they were good, and it could make watching this frustrating team a bit more fun, for sure.
LOL @ rex banner reference!
It is early Stoeten, BUT, I can't get the Orioles out of my head. They are young, talented, and have seemingly waves of talent percolating in the minors. They have become what we thought this Jays team was set up to be in the 2022-25 years. Sure the Jays could play to their career norms and sneak into the playoffs, but they don't appear to be a real contender. Thus, should the selloff and restock the system begin? I honestly don't believe it is the GM or the President or the Manager's fault. We can replace them all, and we'll still in the future have trades we win and lose, draft picks that work out and don't, and lineups and decisions that we like and second guess. Ultimately, the talent on the field has to perform. The projections haven't turned into reality for this core unfortunately. The team is running a record payroll, thus it seems we've got to shed payroll, get what we can, and try and pivot so it doesn't become a future lost decade. What says you wise one?
I've stopped watching games. I still follow the team in various ways (like reading your blog! #greatstuffStoeten) but I just hit my breaking point about a week ago, and decided to take a break.
This team was young and fun: hitting dingers, sunflower seed showers, home run jackets, and yes stupid mistakes in the field and brain farts on the basepaths too, and I honestly think the front office broke something through what I can only guess was a massive overcorrection to some very real flaws by way of 1) bringing on too many red-ass veterans and shipping our mistake-prove but dynamic players, and 2) what I can only surmise is some really bad hitting approaches driven either by players or the coaching staff. (The recent Danny Jansen comments about pulling the ball makes me think it's the latter but... Idk.)
I found myself in a constant state of frustration. This is supposed to be enjoyable! I like baseball! A lot! I'm not a guy hopping on social media after every random loss demanding people lose their jobs or coming up with ludicrous trade scenarios for a guy after a few rough days (or weeks), and yet... here I am. The Blue Jays did this to me!
This sucks, man. This should be their contention window, and while the pitching staff is certainly good enough the FO just couldn't/wouldn't make that one all-in big move to bring in the big bat they clearly needed. (Not going to re-hash the Ohtani thing, but where was your Plan B, guys?)
Firing the manager or even a coach or two doesn't solve this, I don't think. Does a big in-season trade to bring in some much-needed offense help? Maybe! Does Atkins take the fall? Almost certainly. But it all feels like a much deeper problem than that, a kind of deep-rooted malaise (but maybe I'm projecting). There's just too much talent on this roster for them to be this tedious a watch. Anyway, here's my question, and it's half-rhetorical and half-earnest: How do the Blue Jays fix this?
Hi Stoets, can we leave our mailbag questions here?
Over some drinks at the pub, some friends and I were mulling over who from the Jays will be on the chopping block if things don't improve. Schneider's got to be in some degree of peril, but many GM's who part ways with their third manager in 5-ish years would draw a lot of heat too. This led us to a discussion of how insulated Ross is from being fired by Mark Shapiro, as the two obviously have a long history of working together. The opinions around the table ranged from "They are a package deal and Mark won't fire Ross" to "we'd need to be completely drained of talent for Ross to get canned", and I tend to lean a bit towards "Mark would fire Ross if he thought he Atkins' meddling with the coaching was holding back the talent" but I can honestly imagine any of those scenarios (and maybe others!) being true. Do you have a sense of how strong of a package deal those two are, or what it would take for Mark to cut Ross loose?
What would have to happen for Springer to get bumped from the top of the order?
Like, how much longer can this go on??
(Also, Turner's OPS over the last 7 games and 15 games is .579 and .709 respectively. Is he bad now too?)
It's becoming pretty clear that, if nothing else, the Blue Jays could use a fresh set of eyes in the GM's chair. But, while I'd welcome never having to see or hear from or hear about Ross Atkins as much as the next guy, it seems foolhardy to hold one's breath waiting for a Modern Major League Franchise™ to appoint a replacement who would operate all that differently -- or, crucially, do that much better. Even after quite likely the most deflating offseason of Atkins' tenure, Justin Turner clearly still has The Goods, and if the season ended today (May 7) -- as many would welcome, no doubt -- IKF would have a career-high wRC+ (of, uhhh, 93).
Or, consider his signature too-clever-by-half move that everyone loves to hate, trading away the potential franchise catcher who the disgraced sesquipedalian screed merchant we'll call for privacy's sake Rosie D. (no, that's too specific -- R. DiManno) calls "Gabe Marino". Daulton Varsho has as much fWAR so far in 2024 as his two next best position player teammates combined, and his defense is one of the increasingly few things keeping this team from becoming straight-up unwatchable in its current state.
Things are likelier to get better in the short-term than they are to get worse, so the following is a pretty big "if", but:
1. If the team stays stuck in the mud and is forced into an early rebuild -- or, uh, "pivot" -- this summer (instead of the one many have suggested is looming in one/both of the next two offseasons anyway), how likely do you think it is that Ross Atkins is the GM to lead it?
2. For as many depreciating assets as the team does have, or as many guys (Vladdy, Bo, Kirk, etc.) as they'd be trading at an ebb in (if not the nadir of) their value, do you think it's more likely that they make somewhat more lateral moves that might better fill out the active roster/upper minors or net them More Years Of Control, as opposed to a full teardown/fire sale?
I don't love the team's long-term outlook but there's certainly still enough meat on the bones here that it'd seem far more logical to take a step back, while prolonging their window of at least being good, than to blow it up on the off chance they could be the next Orioles in 2030 or whenever. Keep shooting for 54% like the other Modern Major League Franchises™, I guess.
3. Stoeten, without knowing precisely what the Blue Jays' future holds, would you say it's time for their fans to crack each other's heads open and feast on the goo inside?
Yes I would, Kent.
Heard a pundit (Rosenthal?) mention that the Jays could be serious sellers at the trade deadline. He also suggested that Vlad could be one of the players on the block, and that there could be teams out there confident they could “fix this guy”. If that were to happen and 2021 Vladdy emerges on another team, wouldn’t that be justification for Rogers to fire *everybody* and start over.
It would be hard to watch.
Unlike many fans I don’t subscribe to notion of laying the blame at the feet of Atkins. Atkins can’t make Springer, Bo, Vlad, Kirk etc produce at the plate. These are all supposed to be elite players and they have to figure it out for themselves. Vlad has been regressing for three years. I don’t think the Jays will want to sign him for $400 million for 10 years. I’ve been wondering since the end of last season about trading him to a team that still sees a lot of value. He’s under team control for another full year. What do you think of a couple of high ceiling recent draft picks (to help rebuild the farm system) + a couple of proven veterans maybe in their 30’s? Would there be any takers? What’s the downside for the Jays?