Team up, team down: How every single member of the Blue Jays is trending so far spring
The Blue Jays' 28 game Grapefruit League scheduled reached its midpoint after Sunday's game, and with three games down since, that means we're well into its second half. There is still a bit of a slog to go, obviously, but we're at the stage now where things are starting to get a little bit more serious. Where teams are starting to make cuts that send extraneous players down to minor league camp. And where, imperfect as the information anyone has been able to gather may be, it’s time to start doing some assessing.
That’s exactly what we’re going to do in this post, as we’ll go through every single player that the Blue Jays currently have in camp to check out how they’ve been performing, and how that performance lines up with our expectations.
This, of course, can’t possibly be very concrete stuff from the outside looking. Frankly, it’s all just based on my personal impression, with a few numbers thrown in to make it seem vaguely legitimate. But I think it’s a good time to take a baseline look at these Blue Jays, and to identify who we’d like to see put in a better performance from here on out, while also praising the players who are must-watch red hot right now, and starting to think about how the 2021 Blue Jays’ roster is going to function — not just what it will look like when George Springer steps in against Gerrit Cole at Yankee Stadium on April 1st, but potentially over the course of the whole year.
It’s also an excuse to point out how some players are walloping pissrods all over the place, and how exciting that is. So let’s do this!
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No, really, there’s a blurb for every single one of them…
Riley Adams (C) ▲ .333/.429/.833, 7 PA - We're only talking about a handful of garbage time plate appearances here, but it's better to have good numbers than bad ones, I suppose. Adams has singled and homered, though he's also struck out three times in those seven PA. Does Reese McGuire's Blue Jays future maybe hinge on whether Adams looks adequate as depth?
Nick Allgeyer (LHP) ▼ 2 IP, 13.50 ERA, 2K, 1BB - A non-roster invitee who seems to be on the outside looking in when it comes to bullpen lefties. Hasn't done anything to force the issue as yet.
Bryan Baker (RHP) ▼ 1 IP, 0.00 ERA, 2K, 0BB - Something of a late bloomer who joined the "century club" in 2018 (i.e. he threw a pitch over 100 mph). Unfortunately, Baker is currently dealing with an elbow strain "with some UCL involvement" that will keep him out to start the season at the very least.
Chris Bec (C) ■ 500/.500/.500, 2 PA - A player who exists, apparently! I mean, they told me the Jays were deep at the catching position, but a .500 hitter who I’ve only barely even heard of? Impressive.
Travis Bergen (LHP) ▼ 2 IP, 4.50 ERA, 4K, 1BB - Four strikeouts in two innings is better than nothing, but the sample is tinier than most and the sense is that he's behind other non-Borucki lefty bullpen options like Liriano and Mayza.
Bo Bichette (SS) ▼ .174/.321/.174, 28 PA - Underwhelming numbers so far, but it's just ridiculously early. We're a long, long way off anything even resembling a "what's wrong with Bo?" conversation. (Yes, even considering his similarly underwhelming return from injury late last season). Flow on, my friend.
Cavan Biggio (3B) ▲ .273/.448/.591, 29 PA - I would be absolutely delighted if the concerns I've occasionally raised about Biggio this spring prove to be unfounded. As he's done pretty much throughout his entire pro career, right now he is yet again making the doubters look foolish.
Ryan Borucki (LHP) ▲ 4 IP, 2.25 ERA, 6K, 0BB - He's looked like the outstanding reliever he was last year so far, except that instead of walking 6.5 batters per nine innings he's walked nobody. *Checks notes* Ah, yeah, that works!
Anthony Castro (RHP) ▲ 5 2/3 IP, 1.59 ERA, 11K, 1BB - Castro has been asked to perform a variety of tasks for the Jays this spring — short relief, multi-inning, mopping up an inning — and he's looked… kind of awesome in doing so? I don’t want to get too carried away here, especially over a guy that the Tigers gave up on, but his velocity is up from his brief big league spell last year, too.
Tyler Chatwood (RHP) ▲ 6 IP, 0.00 ERA, 4K, 0BB - No walks from Chatwood is about as good a bit of news as you could get. He's been healthy, thrown more than any Jays reliever, and allowed just a single hit. Giddy up!
Philip Clarke (C) ■ 000/.667/.000, 3 PA - Unless you really like walks, the Vanderbilt product hasn’t done much to impress thus far.
A.J. Cole (RHP) ▼ 4.0 IP, 6.75 ERA, 5K, 2BB - Cole has been OK so far. His velocity has been fine, his numbers aren't out of whack, and he was useful last year. But his margin for error feels thin given the competition for spots at the back of the Jays’ bullpen, and I'm not sure he's doing enough yet to break with the team out of camp — or to ensure he'll stick around for very long if he does. He's got time, but he needs to start impressing.
Jonathan Davis (CF) ▲ .316/.435/.526, 23 PA - Every year there seems to be more and more to like about Jonathan Davis. Sure, the sample is small here in spring 2021, but Davis has been impressive. He struck out 11 times in 34 big league plate appearances last year, but has only done so twice in 23 PA this spring. He's walked more often than that! And his average exit velocity (which has grown with every year he's played in the bigs) ranks third on the Jays (minimum 50 pitches seen), behind only Kirk and Guerrero. Apparently he made an impression at the alt-site in Rochester last summer, too. He'll turn 29 in May, so he's quickly aging out of prospect status, but there are a lot of positive indicators going on here. I'd love to see him get some real run in the majors, I'm just not sure it's going to happen here. And the question I can’t help but follow that up with is this: if their contracts were identical, would Davis and Grichuk be battling for a job right now?
Rafael Dolis (RHP) ▲ 2 2/3 IP, 3.38 ERA, 4K, 0BB - Struggled in his first outing of the spring, but a couple clean innings since, with velocity as expected and no free passes. He's on track.
Santiago Espinal (INF) ▲ .353/.421/.471, 19 PA - Espinal is, like Davis, another guy who I wonder might be benefitting from his access to the resources that the Blue Jays are able to provide their players here in 2021. He was a mid-tier prospect at best, but we've heard for at least a couple years how the Jays value the way he strikes the ball, and we're certainly seeing some good results this spring. It's way too early to believe anything concrete, but would I rule out the possibility that he could be a late bloomer, offensively? I'm not sure that I would.
Randal Grichuk (OF) ■ .200/.304/.500, 23 PA - Sadly, my fanciful hopes about a late-blooming Jonathan Davis don’t count for anything and Grichuk is going to be a full-fledged big leaguer this year. Which is fine! Grichuk's career line is .246/.295/.483, which is slightly above average according to wRC+ (105). So, he's doing Randal Grichuk things already this spring. Midseason form! Eat Arby's!
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B) ▲ .529/.625/.941, 24 PA - Piss missiles, baby! Guerrero has already had three balls come off his bat faster than 110 mph. He is special. Read Drew Fairservice's latest Vlad Religion post for more on this new wellspring of Vlad hope. Or just this:
Jordan Groshans (SS) ■ .111/.100/.111, 11 PA - Groshans is a very good prospect, obviously, but he's not here to actually make a run at making the team — no matter what he might believe. He maybe hasn’t made the greatest impression in the Grapefruit League as yet, but I’m sure it’s afforded him some valuable experience.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (LF) ▼ .269/.269/.423, 26 PA - I mean, I can't exactly give him anything but a down arrow based on these numbers. He hasn't always had the best time in the field so far, either, and he has yet to take a walk. But there's nothing to be concerned about here.
Thomas Hatch (RHP) ▼ 4 IP, 0.00 ERA, 5K, 4BB - A very interesting arm who is lurking behind the veterans in the Jays' rotation. Er, that is, provided this moment on Wednesday wasn't as bad as it looked. Fingers crossed. (The team is saying his abrupt exit was due to elbow/forearm discomfort and that he’s being sent for “additional imaging,” aka an MRI.)
Teoscar Hernández (RF) ▲ .250/.444/.450, 27 PA - Hernández picked up another walk on Wednesday, taking him up to five on the spring, to go along with five strikeouts. That is, uh, not the kind of ratio we're used to from Teoscar. A reminder of how imperfect these numbers are at this stage? Maybe. But I prefer to think of it as a harbinger of an absolutely monstrous season to come.
Miguel Hiraldo (3B) ■ .000/.500/.000, 4 PA - Another very interesting kid who is getting a taste of big league camp.
Danny Jansen (C) ■ .200/.383/.400, 26 PA - Jansen has struck out in 30.8% of his plate appearances so far this spring, but has also walked in 23.1%. Neither of those is right, so my sense is that he’s just getting dialed in. Of course, it feels like he’s spent the last two full years getting dialed in and has yet to quite get there. Still, he will get plenty of rope. He's got a big job beyond just hitting, and the Jays regard him highly in that, er, regard.
Leonardo Jimenez (2B) ▲ .400/.400/.400, 5 PA - A couple of singles in five plate appearances with just one strikeout? Sure. I’ll give the kid an up arrow for that. I am not an animal!
Anthony Kay (LHP) ▼ 7 IP, 5.14 ERA, 8K, 3BB - It’s still so early that I’m not as much worried about the numbers or his having had two of three less-than-great outings as I am the fact that Thursday is the 18th and he hasn’t pitched since the 10th (in a Grapefruit League game, at least — I have no idea what he’s been doing behind closed doors).
Alejandro Kirk (C) ▲ .417/.467/.667, 15 PA - This locomotive can't be stopped. ESPN's Jeff Passan spoke to an opposing manager who thinks Kirk ought to be the Jays' starter behind the plate, and it’s getting hard to argue against it at this point. More importantly, why would anyone want to argue against it??? Let’s go, baby. All pissrods, all night.
Adam Kloffenstein (RHP) ■ 1 IP, 0.00 ERA, 1K, 0BB - The youngster acquitted himself reasonably well in his only big league spring training appearance.
Cullen Large (3B) ■ .167/.167/.667, 6 PA - Our Large adult son crushed a 104 mph homer off old friend David Paulino. That's not nothing? I guess?
Francisco Liriano (LHP) ▲ 5 1/3 IP, 0.00 ERA, 4K, 3BB - The walks are something to watch, but Liriano found a way out of his own mess back on Saturday and looked good again here on Wednesday. He’s allowed just two hits so far this spring, his velocity has been OK, and he is the kind of solid veteran I could see the Jays finding a place for. Especially considering the fact that his contract has an opt-out clause near the end of camp (which Tim Mayza, his main competition as second bullpen lefty, does not).
Otto Lopez (2B) ▲ .300/.364/.300, 11 PA - I've decided to be kind and give the kid an up arrow, even though there's not much to go on here. He hasn't struck out a ton, so I guess he’s not overwhelmed! Perhaps if more of these games had been broadcast on a TV network of some kind I’d have a better sense of it all. *COUGH*
Elvis Luciano (RHP) ▼ 1 IP, 27.00 ERA, 1K, 2BB - He's hit two guys in the head so far and allowed five runs (three earned) while recording only three outs. Perhaps another Injured List spell for exactly-the-amount-of-time-required-to-have-his-Rule-5-rights-transfer-from-the-Royals-to-the-Blue-Jays will do the trick.
Alek Manoah (RHP) ▲ 5 IP, 0.00 ERA, 11K, 0BB - It's only spring, and there will be bumps in the road eventually, but what can you say other than "wow"? Earlier here on Wednesday, in the same piece linked above, Jeff Passan of ESPN made the Jays his sleeper World Series pick (based on their +2200 odds), adding: “Especially if Alek Manoah arrives sooner than later.” He is officially no longer under the radar.
Austin Martin (SS) ▲ .125/.417/.125, 12 PA - The gap between Division I baseball and the majors is significant, and Martin maybe hasn't exactly bridged it impeccably, but he hasn't tumbled into it either. Four walks and just two strikeouts in 12 plate appearances is a fair accounting of himself at this stage. (Even if he’s only a week younger than Vladdy.)
Orelvis Martinez (SS) ■ .333/.333/.333, 6 PA - It’s also nice to see Martinez in camp!
Steven Matz (LHP) ▲ 5 IP, 0.00 ERA, 6K, 0BB - The Jays shielded Matz from the Yankees back on Sunday, but the results were just as good in his sim game at the club’s new development complex: “60 pitches, 15 batters faced, seven strikeouts, zero walks,” according to David Lennon of Newsday. The acquisition of Matz was a little bit puzzling, but clearly the Jays saw something in him, and though it’s absurdly early, so far he’s making them look smart. (I’m all in.)
Tim Mayza (LHP) ▲ 3 IP, 0.00 ERA, 4K, 0BB - Just being back and healthy would have been enough to call this a good spring for Mayza, but he's been very good so far, and his average sinker velocity of 94.7 mph in his last outing was higher than the best yearly averages of his career. Because he’s on a straight minor league deal he probably won’t make the Jays on opening day, but there’s a very good chance he gets churned to the majors at some point.
Reese McGuire (C) ▼ .167/.375/.250, 16 PA - Hey a .375 on-base! More importantly, McGuire has avoided any incidents at the Dollar Tree this spring. He still might lose his job to Kirk though! And while I've seen fans argue that the Jays would be making a mistake by letting him loose for nothing in return, I've got to ask: what, exactly, could McGuire bring back in trade that isn't also nothing?
Julian Merryweather (RHP) ▼ 0 IP, -.–– ERA, 0K, 0BB - The guy with the golden arm who just needs to stay healthy hasn’t been healthy enough to get on the mound in the Grapefruit League yet. Not great! But he can be a real weapon if he ever does manage to get right.
Tommy Milone (LHP) ▲ 4 1/3 IP, 0.00 ERA, 4K, 2BB - Milone allowed a single unearned run on Wednesday, pitching multiple innings and facing some real big leaguers. He's an interesting lefty depth piece who could soak up innings at some point I guess, but personally, I tend to get a bit terrified when you’re topping out at 84.6 mph (not a typo!) and you don’t have the name Buehrle (also not a typo!) stitched across your back.
Gabriel Moreno (C) ■ .125/.125/.125, 8 PA - A highly regarded prospect catcher who may one day displace both Danny Jansen and Alejandro Kirk. For now, he's a youngster getting an early taste of big league camp. With only one strikeout he hasn't exactly been overwhelmed, but it did take until here on Wednesday for him to get his first hit.
Patrick Murphy (RHP) ▼ 0 IP, -.–– ERA, 0K, 0BB - Murphy will begin the year on the 60-day DL because of a shoulder problem. He’s a really intriguing talent who, like Merryweather, has faced setback after setback in his career. I have no choice but to give a down arrow here, but I assure you I’m not happy about it
Joey Murray (RHP) ▼ 2 IP, 13.50 ERA, 1K, 3BB - Murray and his "invisiball" have certainly become Statcast darlings, but his results so far this spring haven't been great, and we haven't seen him in a Grapefruit League game since March 4. I have no choice but to give a down arrow here. That doesn't mean I'm not still very interested to see how his career goes though!
Josh Palacios (OF) ▲ .400/.429/.750, 21 PA - Palacios hasn't exactly been facing teams' best pitchers, as he's mostly featured later on in games, but I can't take away how great he's looked this spring. You love to see it. Is the Jays' pipeline finally now producing its own versions of Billy McKinney and Derek Fisher???
Joe Panik (INF) ▼ .278/.316/.278, 19 PA - A couple good games and this looks a lot better, so I don't think he's playing himself out of a job just yet, but that last bench spot is probably his to lose — for now, and definitely as the season progresses — and maybe Espinal is making the front office think twice at the moment. Panik has an opt-out date of March 25.
Joel Payamps (RHP) ▲ 1 IP, 0.00 ERA, 2K, 1BB - Flashed the velocity that has made him a “hot commodity” in his first Jays outing of the season. He got some strikes off of his slider, too. Still, given the way he's been passed around the waiver wire this winter, he's only barely hanging on to that roster spot. Could be useful at some point if they can get him sent down to Buffalo without getting claimed.
Nate Pearson (RHP) ▼ 1 IP, 0.00 ERA, 2K, 1BB - This one has to be a down arrow, because we’ve barely seen Pearson so far. It’s not catastrophic that he’s likely going to start the season on the injured list, because he was going to have to be held back at times this season anyway, but the repeated pattern of injuries — even if they’re at least not repeated injuries — is a concern.
David Phelps (RHP) ▲ 4 IP, 0.00 ERA, 7K, 0BB - You can't have a much better start to your spring than Phelps has this year. In addition to the numbers above, he has also only allowed just one hit over his four outings so far, and his velocity is exactly where you'd like it to be, too. Find yourself a house in Buffalo for the start of June, Dave.
Robbie Ray (LHP) ▲ 8 1/3 IP, 2.16 ERA, 11K, 4BB - More walks than you’d want to see in a perfect world, but who cares? If this is the Ray the Jays get all season they’ll obviously be thrilled. For now, like Matz, he’s helping to ease some very real concerns about the middle of the rotation.
Jackson Rees (RHP) ■ 1 IP, 0.00 ERA, 2K, 1BB - Not much to say here. A 26-year-old minor league reliever who is getting a good taste of big league camp but hasn't done much to move the needle.
Jordan Romano (RHP) ▲ 4 IP, 2.25 ERA, 9K, 1BB - A late addition, because I somehow missed him, but um, yeah, Jordan Romano is awesome and should keep being awesome. I approve this spring training he's having and fully endorse it continuing for the next decade. (One request, though: would Romano sprinting to the mound with Slipknot blaring and the Rogers Centre videoboards showing his name in flames be too much to ask?)
Hyun Jin Ryu (LHP) ▲ 6 IP, 1.50 ERA, 6K, 1BB - I wrote on Tuesday about Ryu’s increased velocity in his most recent start, but even if he was topping out in the high 80s, he’s looked good and entirely on track.
Marcus Semien (2B) ▲ .214/.333/.357, 33 PA - Despite an 0-for-3 against the Yankees on Wednesday, Semien seems to be getting dialed in offensively. He struck out five times in his first four games of the spring, but has only done so twice in the seven games since. Three of his four walks have also come in his last seven games, and he had an excellent game on Tuesday, picking up a pair of hits, including his first home run of the spring. Plus, he hasn't looked out of place at second base, which is probably the facet of his game he's most concerned about at the moment.
Kevin Smith (SS) ■ .200/.200/.400, 10 PA - "There's nothing more exhilarating than pointing out the shortcomings of others, isn't there?" - Kevin Smith
Kirby Snead (LHP) ▲ 4 IP, 0.00 ERA, 3K, 2BB - The Jays' second most important reliever named Kirby, Snead hasn't been terribly noticeable so far in camp. I'll give him an up arrow though, because while the numbers don't mean a whole lot, and the quality of competition he's faced surely hasn't been high, he's only given up a single hit in four innings.
George Springer (CF) ■ .250/.273/.400, 22 PA - I'm not putting a down arrow on that. He's fine. Move on!
Ross Stripling (RHP) ▼ 5 IP, 3.60 ERA, 2K, 1BB - Stripling struck out 303 batters over 287 innings from 2017 to 2019, then last year he struck out just 40 in 49 1/3 innings. The limited results he’s produced so far this spring have looked more like that, which is not ideal — though the Jays sill like him enough to have made him the front-runner to temporarily take Nate Pearson’s spot in their rotation.
Rowdy Tellez (1B) ▼ .179/.233/.286, 30 PA - The darling of the first few days of camp, Tellez has cooled, including going 0-for-3 with a pair of strikeouts against the Yankees on Wednesday. Those K's bumped his strikeout rate for the spring up to 23.3%, which is still better than previous incarnations of Tellez, but certainly not last year's impressive 15.7% mark. Of course, the sample is so small that one good day could swing all these numbers pretty significantly.
Trent Thornton (RHP) ■ 0 IP, -.–– ERA, 0K, 0BB - Will make his Grapefruit League debut on Friday.
Ty Tice (RHP) ▼ 2 IP, 12.25 ERA, 5K, 4BB - Well, at least he can dunk.
Richard Ureña (INF) ■ .143/.465/.143, 11 PA - Richard, Ureña heap of trouble. (Though, OK, actually, four walks and a single in 11 plate appearances? It could be worse.)
Breyvic Valera (INF) ▼ .111/.111/.111, 18 PA - Well, at least he exists. But if Valera doesn't start showing more he'll be in trouble, too. Panik may already have designs on his 40-man spot, and even if the Jays pass on Panik, Espinal may well be the next in line for that final roster spot. Valera is out of options, which at least gives him something of a chance. Right now his bat isn’t.
C.J. Van Eyk (RHP) ■ 0 IP, INF ERA, 0K, 3BB - A youngster getting a taste of big league camp. We can't take anything from his brief showing, so I’ll spare him the down arrow. (It was bad!)
Jacob Waguespack (RHP) ▼ 1 1/3 IP, 27.00 ERA, 0K, 1BB - The numbers alone don't tell the story of this down arrow. Not only was Waguespack designated for assignment earlier in camp to make way for Joel Payamps, he went unclaimed on waivers and has ended up back with the Jays as a minor leaguer. The indignity! Some of his velocity readings have been better than usual though, so don’t count him out just yet.
Forest Wall (OF) ▲ .294/.333/.529, 18 PA - Wait, really? Maybe the Jays really are producing their own Billy McKinneys and Derek Fishers! (Yes, I know, he was traded for and then released and re-signed. But still!)
Logan Warmoth (SS) ▲ .333/.385/.667, 13 PA - Is there hope yet for the mighty Warmoth? If there was a way that he could rack up garbage time stats in spring training for a living, the answer might be yes!
Tyler White (1B) ▼ .056/.105/.056, 19 PA - I understand taking a look at White, who had such a great second half of 2018 for the Astros that he ended up an opening day starter for them in 2019. But other than that 2018 run, and a bit of 2017, he's got Quad-A stink all over him, and hasn't shown anything to the contrary here as yet. Should be good depth for Buffalo, at least.
Simeon Woods Richardson (RHP) ▲ 5 IP, 0.00 ERA, 4K, 1BB - If it hadn't been for Alek Manoah, Woods Richardson might be the prospect Jays fans were most excited by over the first few weeks of camp.
Kirby Yates (RHP) ■ 1 IP, 0.00 ERA, 0K, 0BB - Yates hasn't shown us much so far, but he hasn't had the opportunity as yet either. Take your time, big man.
Chavez Young (OF) ■ .214/.267/.357, 15 PA - Sure!
T.J. Zeuch (RHP) ▲ 7 IP, 1.29 ERA, 1K, 2BB - Colour me still unenthused because of the strikeouts, but word is the Jays are impressed by Zeuch this spring. I'll give him this: over 11 1/3 big league innings in 2020 his sinker averaged 92.2 mph, but on Monday he averaged 93.8 on 25 of them. His hardest ever pitch in the big leagues registered at 94.6; on Monday he equalled that once and beat it four times, getting up as high as 95.9.
Yosver Zulueta (RHP) ▲ 2 IP, 9.00 ERA, 2K, 2BB - Not great results as yet, but he's essentially come out of nowhere and made an impression throwing hard. Intriguing. Yet maybe even more impressive is the fact that he can follow Zeuch on an alphabetical list!
Top image via @DunedinBlueJays
Impressive.
Roark?