Today in MLBTR: Making sense of this week's GM meetings chatter
On Acuña Jr., Bichette, Teoscar, Nathan Lukes, Ryu's insurance, the 40-man, Elvis Luciano, Stripling, Robert Suarez, Andrew Heaney, Syndergaard, Pearson, payroll, Barger, Kirk, and more!
I assure you it’s not my intention to use the Trolololosi image every time I make a post this winter, but if the GIF fits?
MLB teams are full-on open for business, though little of significance has gone down just yet. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t plenty to talk about in this edition of Today in MLBTR — which I believe stands for Morosi Loves Billing The Radio station — including Jays-related Ronald Acuña Jr. “chatter,” Bo “rumours,” 40 man decisions, qualifying offers, notes from this week’s GM meetings, and more!
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Ronald Acuña Jr.? You don’t say!
The fun thing about the chatter surrounding Jon Morosi’s Jays-related hit with MLB Network on Thursday is that, while the name Ronald Acuña Jr. is the one that got Jays fans to perk their ears up, Jon wasn’t actually connecting the team with the player.
What he was saying was maybe even more interesting — albeit equally lacking in substance — but it wasn’t that!
Here’s what was said (clip here):
To follow up on something that Bill mentioned, Matt, a moment ago, about the possibility of a young talent like a Ronald Acuña Jr. being available in trade, I have even had some agents here say to me they wouldn't be totally shocked if we saw the Jays pursue a shortstop, like Bogaerts, or Turner, or even Correa, and then would consider moving Bo Bichette, if they were able to make that deal work. I'm not saying it's going to happen, but I do believe that is part of the menu of possibilities there for the Toronto Blue Jays. Because at this point in time, similar to the Devers conversation with the Red Sox, you have to figure out your likelihood of being able to sign long-term a superstar player like a Vladimir Guerrero Jr., or a Bo Bichette. And could the Jays really tolerate losing both in free agency without getting either one either signed long-term, or flipping them for prospects or pitching, which is what the Jays also need. So, I think the Toronto Blue Jays are one team to pay very close attention to on a number of fronts at these meetings and beyond.
Bill and Matt are MLB Network hosts Bill Ripken and Matt Vasgersian, who had previously had this exchange (clip here):
MV: They're heading for a problem if Dansby (Swanson) is paid at an AAV that is significantly greater than that of Ronald Acuña Jr., that's going to be a problem in the room. And that's why I say this — this is me as a fan, no skin in the game here, no knowledge. You could extract a pretty penny from another team if you dangled Ronald Acuña Jr. on the trade market.
BR: I'm not mad at you for that thought.
MV: Could you imagine what you could get?
BR: I hear everything you're saying…
MV: Club friendly deal, incredible talent —
BR: But Riley's got more AAV, right? Riley signed his extension with more AAV. Olson's got more money. You have some players in the mix. I think where Dansby sits right now, his AAV's going to be higher than everybody on that team, right? In order to keep him.
MV: So then what happens with Acuña's head?
The clip I was able to find ends there, meaning that there was maybe more said about this stuff between the two segments, but as far as I can tell here as a person capable of reading and understanding English, in no way is anyone saying that Acuña for Bo is something being discussed or thought about, or that the Jays are in on Acuña at all.
That’s not to say that all the Jays-Acuña talk is completely based on a misunderstanding, though. Because some Braves person, who was apparently well ahead of the curve in having Atlanta’s acquisition of Matt Olson last spring, is now saying that Acuña deals are indeed being considered, and that the Jays are one of the teams interested.
This kind of stuff is tough to get worked up about at the best of times, and I find it harder still to take seriously when even the random-ish source is throwing big caveats on the possibility of it actually coming to fruition, but there you have it.
It’s interesting fodder for speculation — and the leap from “why don’t the Braves let Swanson go and then trade Acuña for Bichette?” is somewhat easy to make, I guess — but for now that’s all it is.
Speaking of Bo…
What I think is most interesting in any of this is actually what Morosi was saying about Bichette and the crossroads the Jays may be headed toward when it comes to him. The key quote here, for me, was this one: “Could the Jays really tolerate losing both (Vlad and Bo) in free agency without getting either one either signed long-term, or flipping them for prospects or pitching?”
That is, of course, not a rumour but a question — an interesting question that we really haven’t had to spend much time grappling with just yet. But I think it’s an important one, especially because the contract situations of Vlad and Bo are complicated by the fact that both are on track to become free agents at the same time, just three years from now, at the conclusion of the 2025 season.
Now, I don’t want to overstate this stuff, because elite teams allow core players to leave for nothing all the time and often don’t miss a beat. The newly crowned champion Astros lost Carlos Correa last winter and George Springer the winter before that, for example. But the Jays are simply not at the Astros’ level yet, and having Bo and Vlad depart at the same time, coming off their age-27 and age-26 seasons respectively, would be a massive blow — even with something like $50 million in salary coming off the books.
It doesn’t have to be Acuña, and I’m not particularly interested in going through his track record of health and production at this pipe-dreamy stage, but if there’s a way to line up with a team on an exchange of big talent that works for both, and gets the Jays a player who helps them avoid that potentially disastrous scenario, why not talk about it?
Particularly at a time when there are other options at shortstop available on the free agent market — all of whom have been better defensively than Bichette, per Outs Above Average, both over the last season and the last two seasons combined.
Defence is clearly another dimension of this concept. With apologies to Santiago Espinal (86 wRC+ vs. RHP in 2022; 91 wRC+ vs. RHP for his career), the Jays don’t have a player they should be ready to hand shortstop to on an everyday basis, but pursuing a defensive upgrade there would be a very good idea — at least in a vacuum.
We hear all about Bo’s competitiveness, and we can see how committed he and the Jays have been to keeping him at shortstop. Asking him to move to second might be a difficult conversation, regardless of whether it’s for a big free agent acquisition or simply because they feel they’d be better served with literally anyone else there. Perhaps to the point where it’s a better conversation to be had by another organization.
I have no idea whether the Jays feel anywhere close to that way, but if they did, trading Bo and signing a big ticket shortstop would certainly be one way to tick a lot of boxes for this winter and winters to come. Provided, that is, they can make the financials work.
One way to potentially help in that regard would be by adding Teoscar Hernández and his $14.1 million projected arbitration salary to a deal. Replace Teoscar with an incoming player with some term left on his deal and next winter’s to-do list shrinks, with Matt Chapman being the only major departing free agent. Replace Bo with a long-term free agent shortstop and the winter after 2025 is less of a headache.
Of course, extending Vlad and/or Bo would accomplish much of that, too. But, for the first time, I think it’s fair to at least wonder if continuing down the path of both of those two as foundational players is the optimal way forward. And if you’re the Jays and the answer is that maybe it’s not, you’re better off accepting it too early than too late.
Maybe I’ve been indulging in these kinds of thoughts more than I should be lately. Obviously this is all very theoretical, and if you’re the Blue Jays, moving from the theoretical to the tangible would involve making a whole bunch of incredibly high-value pieces fit with another team and being willing to take the massive risk that it doesn’t blow up in your face. That and the fact that it’s very hard to make a good team better by moving out elite talent is why deals involving win-now players between win-now clubs are exceedingly rare.
Plus, you know, consider the source.
But these are questions that I think have to be asked.
Movement on the fringe
Hey, actual news! Back on Thursday the Jays made a series of transactions involving their 40-man roster that were at least mildly interesting, reinstating Hyun Jin Ryu and utility guy Vinny Capra from the 60-day IL, while also adding outfielder Nathan Lukes to the roster.
There were simple, procedural reasons for these moves. With Ryu and Capra, it’s the fact that players on the 60-day IL don’t count against the 40-man in-season, but that IL ceases to exist between the end of the season and the start of spring training. Any players lingering on it need to be added back to the 40-man proper or let go of.
Lukes, though not on the IL, was added for similar reasons. He would have become a minor league free agent had the Jays not added him on Thursday, so this way they at least still have him in the organization for the time being.
Will all three last the winter on the roster?
Well, I suspect Ryu will. That’s not because the Jays could possibly be expecting to actually get anything in 2023 out of their one-time ace, who will miss at least half of the season while recovering from Tommy John surgery. It’s not because it would be too cold-hearted to simply release him, either. It’s because releasing him would likely impact the club’s ability to collect insurance on his contract — which is the reason why the Mets kept David Wright on their roster for years after injuries cut his career short, and why the Rangers first reached a settlement with their insurance company before releasing an all-but-retired Prince Fielder in 2017.
We still don’t know definitively that Ryu’s deal is insured, but that’s the sense that’s out there, and when asked about it at the GM meetings this week, Ross Atkins did little to dissuade anyone from believing it. Per Shi Davidi:
Atkins was vague when asked if the deal was insured. But that he left the possibility open is reason to think they have some sort of coverage.
“Every player is different and we definitely are using that resource in the organization,” he said after the season, “but don’t want to talk about individuals that may or may not have that.”
Because taking out an insurance policy on a contract says something about how a team views a player’s future production and ability to stay healthy, I think it’s understandable why they don’t want that information public — or even to be known by the player.
If Ryu does last on the roster until he can be placed back on the 60-day IL next spring, it will be a pretty clear signal that the deal is insured. And Thursday’s reinstatement was a first step toward that.
Meanwhile, Capra and Lukes are guys that the Jays obviously like, otherwise they wouldn’t still be here. But it’s important to not that we’ve yet to reach the point where the decision to actually keep them on the roster or not actually needs to be made.
Teams have until 6 PM ET on Tuesday to add players to their 40-man rosters in order to protect eligible prospects from being swiped by another club in early December’s Rule 5 draft. That deadline will likely spur some trade activity as clubs attempt to move players they might otherwise lose for nothing for ones that might better fit their needs.
Will Capra and Lukes find new homes? Will they be kept? It’s hard to say, but I think it’s fair to think that, despite having just been added to the roster, they’re among the group that’s on the bubble.
By my count the Jays now have 39 players on their 40-man. They'll need to find spots for at least four — Addison Barger, Spencer Horwitz, Orelvis Martinez, and Yosver Zulueta — with several other prospects potentially also being added. I'd count Brandon Eisert, Adrian Hernandez, Gabriel Martinez, and Jimmy Robbins among that group, with Tanner Morris and Alex De Jesus likely also being in the conversation — and probably more I'm not even thinking about.
In my view, joining Capra and Lukes among those who could lose their spots are the likes of Matt Gage and Foster Griffin, as well as non-tender candidates Raimel Tapia and Bradley Zimmer. This may also be a pressure point that creates the opportunity to deal some better-known guys whose futures here aren't looking as bright as they once did, among them Thomas Hatch, Anthony Kay, Julian Merryweather, Trevor Richards, Trent Thornton, or even a Cavan Biggio.
Could be an interesting week!
Departures…
• The Jays may have avoided losing Lukes to minor league free agency by adding him to their 40-man, but several other somewhat notable names were not quite so lucky, as we can see on their minor league transactions page. Among them: Casey Lawrence, Yoshi Tsutsugo, José De León, and Elvis Luciano.
Luciano will, of course, be best remembered by Jays fans as the teenage Royals prospect who had no business being in the big leagues, but was available in the Rule 5 draft due to a technicality, taken by the too-clever-by-half Blue Jays, and kept on the roster for the first half of the 2019 season until approximately two minutes after he'd accrued enough active days in the majors to avoid needing to be offered back to the Royals before getting sent down, at which point he suddenly picked up an "injury" that lasted until he could return as a September call-up.
Ho ho ho. How can you not be romantic about baseball?
• More significantly, the deadline for clubs to make qualifying offers to their pending free agents passed this week, and the Blue Jays chose not to do so with Ross Stripling.
Stripling's emergence as an incredibly reliable arm was fundamental to the Jays' success this season, pitching well enough to have made the conversation about him potentially receiving a qualifying offer not completely ridiculous. But as the Jays' financial picture and the other rotation options out there came better into view, outside of the realm of the content mills few would have believed that paying him more than $19 million on a one-year deal would or should happen.
The Jays got 134 1/3 innings of 3.01 ERA out of a guy making $3.79 million while setting career lows in walk rate and HR/FB%. Great as it was to watch his success, and as much as we'd all like to believe he can continue to repeat it going forward, you take that win and move on.
A team will probably give Stripling a multi-year deal this winter, as he's absolutely earned it. He probably wouldn't have taken the qualifying offer. But a Jays team that Roster Resource projects to already have a luxury tax payroll number of $219 million — giving them just $14 million before they reach a threshold they've never indicated they'd be willing to cross — can't chance overpaying a guy by several million as a reward for his past success. Stripling still doesn't have great velocity or strikeout numbers, and that makes it harder to buy in than if he were an unhittable monster.
He's the kind of pitcher I, personally, really enjoy watching, and I wouldn't bet against him necessarily. But think about it like this: if Stripling had put up the same numbers for a different team in 2022, and the Orioles went out and pushed themselves up against their presumed payroll limit to give him a one-year, $20 million deal, or signed him for multiple years, what would your reaction be and why is it laughter?
Quickly…
• Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith did a nice job scooping up whatever rumours he could find at the GM meeting in Las Vegas this week. First, he noted in a piece that the Jays had “shown interest” in flame-throwing Padres reliever Robert Suarez, as well as “other coveted relievers” who will be out there seeking multi-year deals.
Are the Jays finally going to actually invest some real money in their bullpen? It would be a good time to do it! Though it turns out that Suarez won’t be the guy they ultimately pay, as he’s re-signed in San Diego.
Not only is Ben right here about how this sheds light on the Jays’ approach, it maybe also sheds a little light on where they think their finances are at. He noted on Friday that as long as top free agents remain on the Jays’ radar — and he says that guys like Justin Verlander, Xander Bogaerts, and Carlos Correa still seem to be — a payroll that crosses the $200 million mark can’t be ruled out.
• We’re all out here trying to read the tea leaves on the financial stuff — perhaps including Ross Atkins himself. The Star’s Gregor Chisholm tells us Atkins told reporters this week that the team has yet to finish talks with ownership about next year’s budget. Worth noting!
• The other notable one from Ben was this: “According to an industry source, the Blue Jays have shown interest in left-hander Andrew Heaney, who they pursued aggressively last off-season only to see him land with the Los Angeles Dodgers, where he posted a career-best 3.10 ERA.”
He added some detail in a tweet as well:
Heaney was only able to make 14 starts this year because of injury — mostly a bout of shoulder discomfort that sent him to the IL from April until June. Add in the fact that he’s painfully homer-prone and that he’ll turn 32 in the first half of next season and it’s clear that he’s not going to be a bank-breaking option. Better than trying to re-sign Stripling? Maybe not. But the strikeouts are definitely intriguing, and if the Jays could add someone else ahead of him, leaving Heaney to battle it out for innings with Mitch White and Yusei Kikuchi, you could certainly do worse. (Namely: Mitch White and Yusei Kikuchi).
• One more from Ben, who in the Friday piece I linked above also tells us this: “One person with knowledge of the Blue Jays’ trade deadline approach said they never seriously pursued Noah Syndergaard over the summer. A lot can change in a few months, but it’s worth noting regardless.”
Thor, who is also a free agent, had a fine year by a lot of measures. But if swing-and-miss is a priority for the Jays, as it should be, he’s probably not going to be the first guy they look to this winter. In other words: I see what we’re getting at here.
• Speaking of large, former top pitching prospects (weren’t we?), according to the latest update on his Baseball Reference page, Nate Pearson now has 13 strikeouts in 10 innings over 10 appearances in the Dominican League, with just five hits and three walks allowed. It could still happen!
• Great stuff here from SI’s Mitch Bannon, who looks at the three biggest Japanese free agents likely to make the move to MLB this winter: hard-throwing right-handed starter Kodai Senga, lefty-hitting corner outfielder Masataka Yoshida, and right-handed reliever Shintaro Fujinami. I wrote about Senga, who is a full-fledged free agent and won’t be subject to the posting system, earlier this week. The other two will have to be posted, which actually may add to the Jays’ interest in them, as posting fees don’t count against MLB’s luxury tax.
• Oh hell yeah.
• Lastly, don’t let the fact that Brandon Drury also won one fool ya! (No, really!) Winning a Silver Slugger is a real honour, and it’s cool as hell that Alejandro Kirk was named the AL’s best hitting catcher this week. He joined MLB Network to share a little about what it meant to him, his family, and how this improbable-seeming accomplishment came to pass. Keep this one around, Ross!
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