Weak in Review

The start to the Jays' season has not inspired confidence that 2024 is going to be any better than what was a grim 2023 for a team and fan base with understandably high expectations. Some thoughts.

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The 2023 Toronto Blue Jays had the eighth most productive offence in baseball according to FanGraphs' version of WAR. They ranked eighth by wRC+, eighth by batting average, and eighth by on-base percentage. They were farther back in other categories—like home runs (16th), slugging percentage (13th), wRC+ with runners in scoring position (15th), and therefore runs (14th)—but for a team with a pitching staff that was fifth in fWAR and fourth in ERA, and a defence that was first by a long shot by DRS (though just 11th by OAA), that should have been a recipe for more success than it felt like they had.

I say “felt like” because there were many years in this market where we would have killed for 89 wins and a playoff berth. But given the expectations for the team, and its place within the arc of their championship window, this was not satisfactory. It was not entertaining. It was not fun.

But it was also not nearly as bad as seems to have crystallized in many fans' memories. At least, based on the reactions I've seen so far to some of the brutal performances we've been treated to already here in 2024.

Don't get me wrong, this team may not have the firepower to contend. Ross Atkins should have done more this winter to fix the glaring run-scoring problems his team had last season. And the fact that he has put together a roster so uninspiring on the field makes one question his ability to make the right off-field hirings as well—the people supplying players with the analytical data and advance scouting information they rely on, and the people who somehow didn't advise Atkins that overpaying to add Isiah Kiner-Falefa and bring back Kevin Kiermaier were plainly stupid ideas.

But as big of a mess as this all might be, the word “might” there is pretty important. A few bad games, a few ugly at-bats, a few losses against tough teams tells us very little about what a team is and what it will be. I mean, are the Astros the team that was swept by the Yankees in their first series of the year, or the one that was one out away from outscoring the Jays 19-0 over 27 innings?

Fans losing sight of this is especially pernicious—or, at the very least, annoying—when they start to believe that what they're seeing confirms priors that were pretty warped in the first place. Like I said, the Jays in 2023 had a lot more offensive success than they're given credit for—than it felt. It wasn't enough success, but 2/3 of the teams in baseball wish they'd hit as well as those Jays did.

So far in 2024, the Jays' .176 batting average is dead last in MLB. Their .196 BABIP is 18 points below the next-worst team. Thanks to some home runs—a thing they needed more of!—their 76 wRC+ ranks way up in 24th. Last year, in what most reasonable observers considered a down year, their mark as a team was 107.

I'm not telling anybody what to think or how to be a fan because, again, it would be wholly unsurprising if this team didn't hit enough to be a real contender this year—a situation that is absolutely unacceptable. But I think anyone who feels certain that this team can't hit—that Vlad obviously sucks, that Davis Schneider should get thrown into an awful matchup for him because he hit a home run the night before but the dumb manager and analytics crew have it out for him, that this season is destined to be a tire fire, or whatever else—would do well to remember how quickly things can change, and how long the game of baseball actually takes to reveal itself.

Matt Chapman was out of his mind last April and finished with a 110 wRC+. Vlad looked in line for a big bounceback after slashing .309/.394/.491 that same month, but then slumped to a worse season than 2022. Conversely, Brandon Belt looked absolutely washed in April (48 wRC+) yet finished the year with the best wRC+ on the team (138). Cavan Biggio slashed .111/.184/.244 out of the gate, then he started having some sex, which propelled him to a 117 wRC+ from May 1st onward. The Jays, as a team, were absolutely awful with runners in scoring position from the start of May through the end of July (.235/.306/.355, 82 wRC+), then were the fourth-best team in baseball with RISP over the season's final two months (.304/.393/.435, 131 wRC+).

Drawing hard conclusions in this sport is a fool's errand at the best of times. One week into a season is very much not the best of times.

For me, the only numbers that matter right now are 3 and 4. The Jays faced a scheduling buzzsaw to open their season, and unless they get swept in the Bronx this weekend—a very real possibility given the way the bats are going, I will admit—they'll come out of it in just about as good a position as could have been realistically hoped. Especially considering that they've been without their top two relievers, and that Bo Bichette missed a couple games in the middle.

The bats will regress to the mean in time. Picking up wins—even ugly ones among the ugly losses—buys them time, at the very least.

Will that regression take the offence to a place that’s sufficient enough? We don't know.

Will they have to start trading defence for offence and giving more reps to bat-first guys like Schneider, Daniel Vogelbach, prospects like Addison Barger and Orelvis Martinez, or running Justin Turner out at third base more often? We don't know.

Will the guys in charge be keen and flexible enough to start shifting the puzzle pieces around in time to avoid throwing away a bunch of early games because of an impotent offence? We don't know.

Will Vlad ever become the guy we think he can be? We don't know.

Are you sensing a theme?

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Related to all of this, I jumped on Blue Jays Nation Radio here on Thursday, filling in for my old pal Coomzy and chatting with Tyler about negatives and positives that we can take from the Jays’ series in Houston.

Yes, we actually managed to find some positives. Have a listen!

(If you’re not on Spotify you can also find the show on Apple, your podcast app of choice, or—if for some reason you really want to see a man who badly needs a shave—on YouTube.)

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