What do we make of the Jays' tire fire bullpen?
Time for Three Up!: Last Blood Part Two! On the bullpen mess and how to fix it. Plus how is Ross Stripling this good?, Nate Pearson, Vlad's wrist and the HR Derby, Alek Manoah, and more!
In case you missed it, I’ve already covered the Blue Jays’ incredible ninth inning comeback in part one of this two-part Three Up.
There was, of course, a whole hell of a lot else that went on this game, which saw the Jays jump out to a 3-0 lead on the stupid Red Sox, only to see their opponents claw their way back — with some help from the Jays’ maddeningly inadequate bullpen — and take a 5-4 lead into the bottom of the ninth.
You know what happened next, but now let’s talk about what happened first. Here’s Part Two of Three Up!
Up: Not having the game undone by the stupid bullpen
I put a big picture of Trent Thornton at the top of this piece, his head hanging low as he walks off the mound after giving up a game-tying two-run shot to Rob Refsnyder — Rob Refsnyder! — but by all rights it should be a picture of Ross Atkins. Some might even say Charlie Montoyo, though I reject that notion.
In keeping with my mantra for the season — “nothing in baseball is ever as good or as bad as it seems” — I think it’s important to note that analyzing the decision to bring Trent Thornton in to protect a lead in the seventh inning of a two-run game requires some major context. On its face, I understand that doing such a thing seems like an incredibly stupid idea. Doing so with Yimi Garcia and Trevor Richards on the injured list, however, and David Phelps unavailable after pitching on back-to-back nights, and Adam Cimber already having been used in the game, and new signing Sergio Romo in the ballpark but not yet officially with the club, and Nate Pearson and Julian Merryweather being Nate Pearson and Julian Merryweather, it makes at least a little more sense. Maybe even a lot.
With Jordan Romano set for the ninth, and Tim Mayza the eighth — a disaster waiting to happen in its own right, given his awful run of late and weird insistence on throwing fastballs almost exclusively, as I noted in Part One of this piece — there just weren’t a lot of options available to pitch in the seventh inning.
Trent Thornton. Matt Gage. Shaun Anderson. Max Castillo.
Pick your poison, Charlie!
Thornton was even on a little bit of a nice run heading into this one. Since being recalled at the start of June after a two week demotion to Buffalo, Thornton had allowed just six runs in 16 innings (3.38 ERA) while striking out 14 and walking only three. Granted, that's far from enough to make anyone feel good about going to him in that situation, especially since it very much feels like we've seen this movie before. Thornton has faced just 23 batters in high leverage situations since the start of 2021, per FanGraphs, and 10 of them have reached base — five with hits and five via a walk. He's struck out just four of those batters (17.4%) and allowed 12 runs (six earned). Opponents have slashed .294/.435/.471 (.391 wOBA) against him in high leverage spots. His ERA in the split is an ungodly 10.13! And though the sample here is obviously very small, it just feels like this is not a guy who consistently delivers in big spots.
Technically there was no part of Thornton's inning on Tuesday was considered high leverage, but still!
And yet Gage, Castillo, and Anderson hardly inspire more confidence. Charlie was in a tough spot. So the question is, why was he in a tough spot? And why were there so many tough spots last year, too?
The exception that proves the rule of my mantra, at least in regard to this team, is that this bullpen is very much as bad as it seems right now.
Romano is walking way more guys than I realized, but can at least reliably produce swing-and-miss, keeps the ball in the ballpark, and throws hard. Phelps, since becoming a reliever full-time in 2016, has struck out 10.8 batters per nine, but those days — though he still is managing to have some success regardless this year — appear to be over. Cimber has been great, versatile and durable, but he too relies on his defence a whole lot. Mayza, as noted, isn’t quite right just now. Thornton should probably be starting for the Pirates or something. Anderson has been uninspiring at Buffalo, is on his seventh organization since being drafted, and in his one outing this year his fastball velocity (91.6 mph) was significantly below where it was with the Giants in 2020 (94.5). Castillo is intriguing, but he’s destined to take the rotation spot of a Triple-A starter in the very near future — whether that’s Yusei Kikuchi or someone on the Bisons remains to be seen.
Matt Gage is the one guy I think you could really argue could have been picked ahead of Thornton. He’s got some big outs for the Jays recently and showed a much better ability to miss bats when he was Buffalo than he has in the majors so far. He may be on his way to carving out a spot in this bullpen. But on Tuesday, the fact that only one of the three hitters in the bottom third of the Red Sox’ lineup hit from the left side, and that Jackie Bradley Jr. and switch-hitter Yolmer Sánchez were on the bench and could neatly slot in for the number nine hitter, Arroyo, and — should the Red Sox not have full confidence in Robbie Rockets — the leadoff man, Refsnyder, kinda made it Thornton’s gig by default.
Turning two of those four uninspiring guys back into Garcia and Richards will help the bullpen somewhat in the near future, and Romo’s arrival will at the very least buy them some time to find a better solution to one of the eight available spots, but we’re still talking about severely unimpressive unit for a team that fancies itself a contender. The Jays’ bullpen ranks in the bottom third of the league in fastball velocity, strikeouts-per-nine, strikeout rate, and swinging strike rate. And while relievers can still be effective without those abilities, balls in play are not what you want from a guy coming in with runners on — a situation that, of course, also for now includes extra innings.
All of this is a long-winded way of saying what we all already know: the Jays need some swing-and-miss back there. And the reason they don’t have it is only partly because they haven’t been willing to pay the price. They did give a bunch of money to Kirby Yates, which obviously didn’t work out. They appeared briefly to have made a shrewd bet on Tyler Chatwood a year ago, though we also know how that ended up. Yimi Garcia got some money from them and, when healthy, has been much better in this regard in May and June than he was during his dreadful April. Rafael Dolis could strike guys out by lulling them to sleep with his laconic pace, at least when he wasn’t walking every batter in sight.
No, they haven’t gone out and got a Liam Hendriks — though they reportedly tried — or some other big money bullpen monster, and I know that’s been a criticism of the front office of late. Frankly, though, that’s smart. Not every team invests in their bullpen like the Braves or the White Sox, and frankly even those teams don’t necessarily do it as a matter of course — we all remember what bullpen investment looked like under Alex Anthopoulos when he was here — but because sometimes that’s just where the best opportunities to make their team better lie.
The Yankees, because they're scumbags, pay a lot of money Aroldis Chapman, but their only other big money reliever, Zack Britton, hasn't contributed since 2020. Their bullpen success is built on guys with under six years of service time. Boston's bullpen is middle of the pack, but even so, the most any of their key guys makes is Matt Strahm's $3 million. And I don't think I have to tell you that the Rays aren't out there spending big on relief help.
Tampa does have a free agent reliever in their mix, though. Brooks Raley allowed right-handers to slash .259/.333/.463 against him in 2021, with a 25% strikeout rate, but was lethal against left-handed batters for the Reds and Astros. He signed with the Rays last November on a two-year, $10 million deal with a club option, and — lo and behold — with a bit of a move on the rubber...
...and some tweaks to his pitch mix against right-handers...
...he's holding them this year so far to .200/.308/.255 and striking them out 31% of the time, becoming one of the best relievers in the American League in the process.
This is, I think, where the Jays need to get better. Identification. Not just of guys who can help the team, but guys the team can help. (They’ve certainly tried it on the starting side!)
Fans tend to dream about having a stable of homegrown relief aces ready to be called upon at any moment, but that’s not really how this process usually works. For example, of the ten relievers to have pitched at least 10 innings for the Yankees this year, only three of them — Clarke Schmidt, Ron Marinaccio, and their worst reliever this year, Jonathan Loáisiga — haven't come there from other organizations. They're doing the thing the Jays are doing, only better. Same with the Rays.
Unfortunately for Ross Atkins and company, it's a thing that — when faltering — doesn't have an easy fix. You either pay big dollars in free agency and hope not to get too terribly burned, or you muddle through with whatever you can scrape together until the trade deadline and then hope you don't get burned by being impossibly unlucky timing-wise (this seems like a good point to mention that Brad Hand has a 2.31 ERA and a 3.09 FIP for the Phillies this year, and has been worth more per fWAR than any Blue Jays reliever not named Romano), or that there are at least some young arms to call up as reinforcements late in the year.
The Jays do, at least, have some of those. I wrote about Yosver Zulueta and his recent promotion to Double-A the other day, which is something my Blue Jays Happy Hour cohost, Nick Ashbourne, looked into in depth for Yahoo Sports this week. Zulueta will have to be added to the 40-man in December, which makes that option all the more likely. It seems less so that any of the other young power arms the Jays are developing — Ricky Tiedemann, or Nick Frasso (who was promoted from Dunedin to Vancouver this week to take Zulueta’s rotation spot) — will end up on that path, though with the shortcuts to the majors taken by Alejandro Kirk in 2020 and Alek Manoah in 2021, I might not even rule that out just yet.
In the meantime there’s Romo, there’s Adrian Hernandez in Buffalo, there’s the hope for some quick returns to health, there’s what they’ve got, and there’s a trade market that is not even close to fully developed yet. Mostly, there’s the need for guys at the top to get better at this stuff. Realistically the choices once again boil down to either paying a hefty premium or hanging on for a bumpy ride. And once again it sure feels as though the front office and the fans probably have much different ideas of which option is most palatable.
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Up: Ross Stripling
Take a bow, Ross Stripling. The Jays' former number six starter kept on rolling on Tuesday night, facing a tough Red Sox lineup for the second time this season, and for the second time limiting them to just five hits over five innings.
There wasn't a lot of swing-and-miss, though his six whiffs topped Red Sox starter Michael Wacha's five, and there were some hairy situations, but anyone expecting the wheels to suddenly fall off — and given the way the Blue Jays' pitching has gone lately, I don't think that would have exactly been unfair — would have once again come away pleasantly surprised.
I tweeted out this chart from Props.cash — player prop research made easy! — before the game started, which shows us the earned runs Stripling had allowed over his previous five appearances. All but the first of these were starts, and even in that one Stripling gave the Jays 2 2/3 scoreless innings. It’s pretty impressive!
In fact, I’m not even sure what else to say about it anymore. He just might be pretty good! He was good with the Dodgers for long stretches, and looked pretty impressive for the Jays for a run last year, too.
That said, I wonder if Stripling might have a difficult time staying ahead of teams with the adjustments he’s been making. That, to me, is going to be the most telling thing about his season as it goes forward.
What do I mean? Well, on some levels Stripling wasn’t especially different in this start than he was the last time he faced these Red Sox. Against them back on April 27th he threw his fastball 45% of the time, his changeup at 24%, the slider 18% of the time, and then mixed in some curves and sinkers for good measure. In this one it was 41% for the heater, 23% for the change, 21% for the slider and, again, a handful of curves and sinkers.
Dig only a little deeper, though, and some pretty real differences emerge. For one, he was certainly getting more swing-and-miss in the last one, with 17 whiffs on 45 swings (38%) compared to just six on 41 swings (15%) on Tuesday.
For another, though he was using the same types of pitches with about the same frequency, as we can see below he was locating them quite a bit differently.
I find it interesting that the start in which he generated all the swing-and-miss wasn't the one where he was consistently working the glove-side edge of the zone with his slider but the one where he was elevating with his fastball. In the April start he got whiffs on nine of the 17 fastballs the Red Sox swung at (53%), while on Tuesday they only missed the fastball only once — unsurprising, as it's only a 93 mph offering and Stripling was filling up the zone with them (assuming he wasn’t trying to elevate and missing!).
In fact, the fastball appears to be the only one of his three main pitches that he was even trying to throw for strikes on Tuesday, with the slider and changeup being pitches he used to try to get batters to chase or — more likely — put a bad swing on. Though many heaters were also in the zone back in April, a ton were elevated too, in a clear attempt to chase swing-and miss. He seemed much happier then — or at least more likely — to throw the other pitches for strikes.
On Tuesday he was also better at mixing it up in certain counts. For example, back in April there was a 60% chance that a Red Sox hitter would see a fastball as the first pitch, five of the six curves he threw also came at 0-0, and he didn't throw a single slider, and just one sinker in that count. On Tuesday he started batters off with fastballs just 50% of the time, threw only two of his six curves in that count, and mixed in three sliders and a sinker as well.
When he got a batter to two strikes back in April there was a 50% chance they'd see an elevated fastball. If the Red Sox were going up there looking for those on Tuesday, though, they were in trouble. Only about a third of his two-strike pitches were fastballs up, about a third were changeups — generally low and in to right-handers/low and away to lefties — and the other third were primarily sliders.
Will he be able to have the same kind of success without continuing to make tweak things as he goes along like this? I honestly don’t know. Frankly, I don’t want to know.
Keep tweakin’, Ross! Everybody knows it’s harder to hit a moving target!
Other notes
• Sure, the Jays walking off the Red Sox on Tuesday night was great, but it turns out it wasn’t even the best news of the last 24 hours.
• On the injury front we learned on Tuesday that Nate Pearson will be shut down for three to four weeks because of the lat strain that forced him from his start for Buffalo the other week. If that sounds bad that’s because it is. Even on the most optimistic timetable it feels like this will be another wasted season for the poor guy. You hate to see it. However, considering the first thing we heard about it was “shoulder discomfort,” this is actually probably a decent outcome really. Pending what happens next, of course.
• We also learned on Tuesday that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has declined an invitation to participate in the Home Run Derby at this year’s All-Star Game. Shi Davidi of Sportsnet explains that Vladdy’s decision is based on a fear that all those swings could result in a flare-up of wrist soreness that he not only experienced back in May, but that he says he expects will be something he’ll have to manage throughout his career. That sounds alarming, yes. But fear not: the wrist is fine right now, Vlad tells Shi, and it’s something that he’s dealt with since he was in the minors. Safe to say it hasn’t affected his performance as yet.
• How do you not love Alek Manoah? In this video from MLB Players Media we not only learn that he recently bought his mom a Jeep, but that he’s helped found a charity that takes unwanted electronics, refurbishes them, and gives them out to schools and kids in need! What??!? What an awesome guy.
• I have my doubts that he won't be claimed on waivers before the Jays get a chance, and I certainly don't think the Yankees will be working out a trade with the Jays for him beforehand, but New York designated reliever Manny Bañuelos this week, despite the former top prospect's very decent showing both in the majors and minors. Bañuelos has struck out eight batters in 8 1/3 big league innings this year, allowing just two runs while walking three. That's hardly spectacular for a reliever these days, but it's at the very least potentially useful, and adding someone who averages 94.2 on his fastball couldn't hurt. Of the Jays' current group only Jordan Romano and Yimi Garcia throw harder.
• My friend and former colleague Kaitlyn McGrath has a great one here on Wednesday, taking an in-depth look at the rise of Jays second baseman Santiago Espinal.
• Speaking of players on the upswing, Ethan Diamandas of Yahoo takes a look at the tweaks Cavan Biggio has made that have made him one of the hottest hitters in a red hot Blue Jays lineup.
• Noah Vande of Blue Jays Nation has one up taking a look at what the Blue Jays may be able to raid from a trio of trade deadline sellers, the Cubs, Royals, and Diamondbacks. Somehow it’s only just over a month until the deadline already. Get on it, Ross!
• Another day, another day where I won’t be posting this week’s mail bag. I blame Sergio Romo and last night’s fireworks, personally. And, frankly, if the Jays want to have another spectacular walk-off in tonight I certainly won’t mind delaying it once again.
Anyway, what this means is that there’s still a chance for you to get a question or two in, if you’re so inclined! Head over to this post and fire me off a question in the comments! (Yes comments are for paid subscribers only, etc. etc.)
• Lastly, Nick and I will be back on Thursday night at the conclusion of the opener between the Jays and Rays (first pitch 7:07 PM ET) with another live episode of Blue Jays Happy Hour. Be sure to get Callin and follow the show so that you can listen in live, send us a Q, or give us a call!
And remember, for those that won’t be able to make it, you’ll be able to find the show afterwards in your podcast app of choice — like Apple, Spotify, or Google. (NOTE: If you had us on your podcast app before we made the move to Callin, you'll need to subscribe again using these links — essentially like it's a brand new show.)
Next up: Wednesday, 7:07 PM ET: Jays vs. Red Sox (Alek Manoah vs. Nick Pivetta), TV: Sportsnet, Radio: Sportsnet 590
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Dude. I'm a DJF guy and your writing is incredible. This level of quality over the years is just awesome to read at such a frequent and consistent basis.
I totally agree with Brad. DJF was fantastic (and funny!), but you continue to get better as a writer. And so prolific while providing nuanced insight at the same time! This is worth every penny.
Stripling - why don't they just leave him as a 4th or 5th starter who can hopefully give you 6 decent innings and leave it at that. No more swapping him around. He seems to be a much better starter than reliever anyway.
Very prophetic bullpen synopsis given what transpired today as well.