Winter Meetings 2022: Monday
On Verlander, Heaney, Gibson, López, Senga, Bassitt, Stripling, catching, Reynolds, Turner, Ródon, Taillon, Kikuchi, McGriff, Mattingly, Tabler, and more!
Aaaaaand… we’re back! MLB’s annual Winter Meetings are now underway in San Diego, which means we’re set for a week of transactions, deals, agreements, pacts, etc. And after a couple of weeks with — apologies to Don Mattingly and Pat Tabler — little Blue Jays news exciting enough to bother writing about, it feels like we now finally stand on the precipice of some activity. Or at the very least some fresh rumours.
One can only pore over the Cardinals’ roster so much.
And the starting pitching market is already on the move, with Jacob deGrom signing a remarkable five-year, $185 million contract to go play in an airplane hanger in Texas on Saturday, and Justin Verlander — my pick for the ideal add for the Blue Jays — taking a two-year deal with a vesting option here on Monday to join Max Scherzer on the Mets.
Activity! So let’s talk about it…
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Verlander to the Mets
On Sunday night, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet wrote, among other tidbits, that the Jays “remain(ed) engaged” with free agent Justin Verlander — who they pursued heavily last winter and, according to the player himself, were very close to being the winning bidder. They’ll be moving on as of early on Monday afternoon.
While some fans might consider spending that kind of money on a 40-year-old pitcher crazy — and Shi noted in his piece that a Jays deal with Verlander “may very well” have “cut them off from other significant moves” — I tended to think that he was the ideal fit here. Short-term, high impact. There simply aren’t many other ways to do that on the free agent market, and even if the here-and-now price would be incredibly high.
The thing is, not only do long-term free agent deals age poorly, the Jays have already got $66 million on the books in 2026 — the year that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette are set to hit free agency — for George Springer, Kevin Gausman, and José Berríos. That year is
Adding another $25 million commitment to someone like Carlos Rodón or Brandon Nimmo shouldn't make retaining Vlad and Bo for 2026 and beyond impossible, but it certainly complicates things. Especially because Rodón or Nimmo would be 33 by then, Berríos 32, and Gausman and Springer even older. The need to win now means that maybe you add another big, expensive, long-term piece this winter anyway, damn the consequences, because the alternative is squandering more years of Vlad and Bo. But it could get messy. And Verlander was a way to largely avoid that.
Whether it was realistic or not is another story.
C'est la vie.
Andrew Heaney?
As you can see from the tweet above, Shi’s Sportsnet teammate, Ben Nicholson-Smith, is also in San Diego, and he’s got some actual interesting news on the Jays front:
Heaney’s is a name that we’ve heard connected to the Jays quite a bit recently, and fits in with some of the reclamation project types they’ve been keen on in recent years, including Robbie Ray, Yusei Kikuchi, and, I think to a lesser extent, Steven Matz and Taijuan Walker. The difference here is that here the Dodgers already seem to have done the reclamatin’.
There is a lot to like here, especially if you — apparently like the Jays — are not especially bothered by pitchers who give up hard contact, as long as they can produce swing-and-miss. Heaney’s percentile rankings for 2022 are certainly a story of contrasts.
Given that he pitched to a 3.10 ERA this year, the profile clearly works when he’s healthy. Trouble is, that hasn’t been the case.
Heaney threw just 72 2/3 innings over 14 starts this season, spending most of the first four months of the year on the IL with shoulder problems. Worse, I think, is that we’re talking about two separate stints here. He made two starts, missed two months, came back for one start, then missed another month.
Add in the fact that he’s only reached 180 innings once since 2015, and only topped 100 innings (including minor league/rehab innings) twice over that seven-year span, and you understand why he’s not one of the most talked-about free agents in this year’s class.
The Jays could use that uncertainty about his health to their advantage, though, as the presence of Yusei Kikuchi and Mitch White gives them the opportunity to take a chance on a wild card like this. It might even be a bit of a coup for them, depending on the terms, provided that Heaney isn’t the only addition they make to their rotation this winter.
Heaney as the number five when healthy, with Kikuchi and White there as cover, sounds great. Heaney as the number four behind Manoah, Gausman, and Berríos, with White and Kikuchi in the five-spot, is considerably less exciting.
Kyle Gibson???
Sticking with Benny Fresh and the pitching market, in his Monday piece he tells us that the Jays “were involved until the end” on starter Kyle Gibson, who ultimately signed a one-year deal with the Orioles, the terms of which have yet to have been released. MLBTR notes that the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal added that a “mystery team” made Gibson a similar offer, which Gibson turned down.
Per MLBTR:
Baltimore’s offer was preferable to Gibson because of the Orioles’ strong infield defense, the more pitcher-friendly left-field dimensions at Camden Yards, and the chance to work with catcher Adley Rutschman.
If that mystery team was indeed the Jays… well, first of all, bullet dodged! Gibson is fine, has been durable, and can eat some innings, but he posted a 5.05 ERA in 2022, striking out just 7.73 batters per nine. And while his FIP and xFIP looked better, and he was much better in 2021 (3.71 ERA), that was only his second season in seven with an ERA below 4.84, and his ERA has been over 5.00 four times in those seven seasons. More trustworthy at this point than Kikuchi or Mitch White, I suppose. But missing out here doesn't feel like a bit loss — or an indication of where the Jays are at in terms of their search for pitching, as Gibson would surely have been the second of two rotation adds. (Right? Right???)
For two, while the point about the dimensions at Camden Yards is perhaps a fair one, I question whether teams today will be fooled by some shiny, park-aided numbers when Gibson reenters the market in a year. The same goes for the infield defence thing, though since that confirms some of my priors on Bo Bichette at shortstop, I’m a little less inclined to find it ridiculous. And Rutschman? I mean, he sure looks like he’s going to be a great player, and maybe some of the uncertainty surrounding the Jays’ catching situation could be a factor in guys’ decisions, but personally I’d probably go to the team that has a far smaller chance of hilariously falling back to earth. That’s me though.
Perhaps also worth noting here is also the fact that Gibson was shuffled from his start in Toronto when the Phillies came to town this summer, because he was unvaccinated for COVID-19. He said at the time that he was unable to get one because of medication he takes, so I don’t mean what I’m about to say about Gibson specifically, but would it shock me if, even without border restrictions, and all else being equal, certain brain-wormed types of free agents might pass at coming to the Socialist Republic of Canada in the current climate? It would not.
Less slanderously, opportunity could have also been a factor, if this really was a decision between the Jays an Orioles. As I’ve noted, the Jays would likely have still continued to look for a mid-rotation starter, even after adding Gibson. Accomplishing that goal would have made him the number five, with Kikuchi and White on the outside looking in. Those guys are obviously coming off bad seasons, but they’re probably bigger threats to Gibson’s position than whoever the O’s might dig up.
Other notes from the Sportsnet crew…
• Shi noted a few other names on the pitching front in his piece, one of which is the Marlins’ Pablo López, who the Jays “are believed to have discussed” at the trade deadline. Plenty of Jays fans have spent some time fantasizing about López over the last couple of years, as he’s pretty good and always seemed somewhat available. The difference now is that he’s reached the point where he’s just two years away from free agency — the same number as Danny Jansen.
Unfortunately, while Miami’s overall game plan this winter remains as confusing as ever, I’m not sure how badly the Marlins will be looking for catching help. Jacob Stallings was added a year ago in a trade with the Pirates, served as Sandy Alcantara’s personal catcher this season, did a great job with that, and improved his bat after a terrible first half. And backup Nick Fortes was pretty serviceable, too.
Perhaps there are other avenues to be explored on this one though. It wouldn’t be unlike the Jays and Marlins to find a deal. But with the Jays’ best trade chips being behind the plate, I’d tend to guess that other options are more likely.
• The other big name Shi brought up was Japanese star Kodai Senga, who he noted the Jays have “long liked.” This tracks with something he had reported last month, which is the fact that the Jays’ “interest in him was demonstrated this summer when they dispatched two senior officials to watch him pitch and Atkins was as blatant about the team’s intentions as he gets when he said, ‘we have done enough work to be ready to have dialogue.’”
You may recall that, at the time, Jon Morosi tweeted that the front office has a “strong relationship” with Senga’s agent, Joel Wolfe — a Canadian who went to Bishop’s, and who represented Marcus Semien at the time he signed with the Jays. (Semien has since switched agencies and is now represented by Scott Boras.)
Also from last month, I wrote this about the 29-year-old right-hander with a splitter apparently nicknamed the “Ghost Fork,” who is a straight-up free agent, and not coming to North America via the posting system (thus sparing the team that signs him any payments to his previous club):
Senga struck out 159 batters in 148 innings over 23 starts, walking just three batters per nine, allowing just seven home runs, and pitching to a 1.89 ERA. And this is no mere Shun Yamaguchi. Last week MLB.com's Thomas Harrigan provided a handy fact sheet on Senga, noting that in 2019 his fastball jumped from the 92 mph range to 95-96 mph, and in 2022 he maxed out at 101.9.
Sign me up.
• Over in Ben's piece he tells us that the Jays "don't appear to be a leading suitor for Chris Bassitt at this stage," which.. fair enough. He’s apparently looking for a four-year deal at least. (Pass.)
Ben also suggests that the three-year, $40 million contract Zach Eflin got from the Rays "looks like a reasonable comp" for Ross Stripling.
I doubt they'd go down in history as the greatest pitching moves ever, and I don’t know about multi-year deals for both — which is likely what would be required here — but I must say that I don't think I'd hate Heaney and a reunion with Stripling being the Jays' big rotation moves this winter. That kind of accomplishes something similar to what I felt was so appealing about Verlander. Y’know, minus the all-time great ace coming off a Cy Young season.
The catching market
In Shi’s piece, he noted that Ross Atkins spoke to reporters at the recent meeting of the local BBWAA chapter, where he said that the team is “probably” leaning more toward the free agent market than the trade market at the moment. That tracks with something we heard from Dan Hayes of the Athletic last week. Reporting on the Twins’ pursuit of a catcher, Hayes wrote that the Jays, as well as they A’s, “seem intent on waiting until after the best free agent options have been exhausted to engage in trade talks.”
The Jays will be able to do that, it seems, because the number of teams looking for catchers is apparently larger than has been typically discussed this winter. The Padres, for example, were linked in a Monday piece by Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic to free agent catcher Christian Vázquez, as were the Cubs, Cardinals, Guardians, Twins, and Astros.
“Unfortunately, we’re not alone in that pursuit (of catching),” Twins GM Thad Levine told Hayes. “It seems to be the common refrain from most teams so far this offseason is that they’re pursuing catching.”
One team that does not seem to be in that market, however, is Atlanta. There were rumours on Sunday that they were the frontrunners to make a surprising deal for Oakland’s Sean Murphy, though it was quickly nixed by GM Alex Anthopoulos.
Part of the thinking behind a Murphy-to-Atlanta deal would have been for the Barves to turn around and trade one of their own guys — perhaps another indication that it’s going to be a seller’s market.
Plan A (non-Verlander edition)
Speaking of the trade market, one name that may have entered it over the weekend is Pittsburgh centre fielder Bryan Reynolds, who reportedly has requested a trade. Of course, the Pirates don’t have to accommodate that request. They can simply continue holding him hostage while wasting the best years of his career on teams that aren’t even trying to be competitive. It would be incredibly stupid to do that, but this is the Pirates we’re talking about.
“It's not even particularly believable that they think he's a building block at this point,” tweeted the great @whygavs in response to the report. “Once you move him out of CF, where he won't stay forever, he's just a fine-ish corner OF with an increasing price tag.”
Reynolds will be coveted by plenty of teams, but he checks a whole lot of boxes for the Blue Jays specifically: switch-hitter, 28 next month, club control for three more years, decent enough in centre (though the metrics didn’t like him much at all in 2022), 125 wRC+ in 2022, 141 wRC+ in 2021.
Two of the Pirates’ best prospects are catchers, so the Jays would have to get creative with this one — a three-team deal, perhaps, or a deal from their own prospect pool, which they can then replenish by dealing a catcher — but it’s a thing worth doing. Even if the defence and bat both dipped in 2022, Reynolds is an outstanding player and really a perfect fit.
Plus, the Yankees apparently want him, which should be reason enough alone to go hard at this one.
Quickly…
• Trea Turner has signed with the Phillies for 11-years and $300 million. Credit to Dave Dombrowski for continuing to spend. It’s certainly another fun day to be a Phillies fan. As for my pipe dream of a big-time shortstop to come in and force Bo Bichette over to second base, it’s not looking so good. Not that it was, you know, ever looking good. Carlos Correa, come on down!
• I mentioned Carlos Ródon earlier, but did I mention that he’s apparently looking for a six-year deal? Seems like a lot for a guy who will turn 30 in less than a week and has made 30 starts in a season all of once! But he’s a great pitcher and if given the choice between having him and not, I’d prefer my team have him.
• The Jays don’t seem to be getting connected much with Jameson Taillon, though he’s out there too, and seems to fit with what they’re looking for somewhat. Solid, not spectacular. A 3.91 ERA, 7.7 K/9, 2.8 fWAR. For the right price it would work.
• Other, lesser options that the Jays may have considered for a back-end rotation spot to have already signed elsewhere include Mike Clevenger (White Sox), Matthew Boyd (Tigers), and Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers).
• I wouldn’t have complained if the Jays had landed reliever Chris Martin. Sadly, he’s gone to the stupid Red Sox.
• After the Mets lost out on Jacob deGrom, and before they replaced him with Justin Verlander, Joel Sherman of the New York Post threw out some pitching ideas the team could explore, including this doozy: “Would a reclamation project with strikeout stuff such as Toronto’s Yusei Kikuchi be intriguing — with his downside perhaps as a swing-and-miss lefty reliever?”
I’m listening! And even if this was just pure speculation, the idea that anybody would consider taking Kikuchi off the Jays’ hands is a positive at this point. Even a reporter!
• After dealing Kolten Wong to Seattle for Jesse Winker and Abraham Toro, the Brewers reportedly have decided not to trade aces Corbin Burnes or Brandon Woodruff. It’s a shame, because those are definitely a couple of guys that Jays fans could have — and did! — pipe dream on.
• An area where the Blue Jays still have some work to do is the bullpen, though as D.M. Fox noted in his latest Substack piece, there are some under-the-radar names already in the system that could make contributions for the Jays in the near future.
• Old friend alert: Miguel Castro, who is still somehow just 28 years old, has signed a one-year deal with the Diamondbacks.
• Just gonna agree with myself on this one…
• Lastly, while at this point in my life I have little time for the Hall of Fame or debates about it, it was great to see that Fred McGriff has finally been honoured and will take his place in Cooperstown this summer.
McGriff fell just seven regular season home runs short of the 500 mark for his career, which would have made enshrinement a virtual lock. Instead he's languished on the outside looking in for, like, two decades, despite also having 10 playoff home runs — he hit 500 big league homers, folks! — and missing a bunch of games due to the strike in 1994 (and the late start in 1995) that would have certainly put him over. He also slashed .303/.385/.532 in the playoffs, winning the World Series in 1995 with Atlanta. Have I mentioned that I think the Hall of Fame is stupid?
Sticking with guys who played in the mid-80s, as I mentioned above, Don Mattingly has been hired as the Jays' bench coach. Donnie Baseball! Diamond Don! Uh... neat. (I don't know!)
And then, of course, there is Pat Tabler. Tabby's contract with Sportsnet ran out at the end of the season, and it was announced last week that he will not be returning to the booth going forward. Whether that was his decision or Sportsnet's isn't known, but it certainly elicited a number of tributes for a guy who everybody praised as truly genuine and kind. It will be strange not to hear Tabler's voice on Jays broadcasts any longer, and while I can't pretend that I always thought he was the greatest broadcaster, I really did think that he did some of his best work this season when paired with Dan Shulman, who did an excellent job of drawing out his natural, folksy charm.
What this means for the booth, and Pat's longtime partner Buck Martinez, who is similarly in contract limbo and has been public in talking about potentially retiring, we don't yet know. But with Dan in the fold we know the broadcasts will be in good hands, whoever he’s partnered with.
As for Tabby, I wish him nothing but the best, and hope this move — if it wasn't his choice — at least allows him more time with his grandkids, which anybody who has listened to him on the broadcast knows he cherishes.
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Andrew, you know about things so perhaps you can help me.
I keep being told that we need low taxes for the rich to do us all a solid and create jobs. Yet Jeff Passan’s says Steve Cohen’s Mets are going to keep hiring even after blowing past the 90% tax threshold. What gives?
With lots of names linked to us being signed up I can't help thinking that there's going to be some pretty significant trades coming up. After all, we can't stand pat can we?